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Chris Paddack’s first start of the season saw little slider usage. The stuff looked intact, but the question of whether the Twins could add a pitch to take him to the next level remained. We’ve had three starts since then, and the results and usage patterns are all over the place.
Briefly, there was at least a hopeful correlation to draw from Paddack’s pitch mix. In his second start against a formidable Dodgers lineup, Paddack was inefficient but solid, given the circumstances. The new slider was his second-most used pitch, as he allowed just two runs across 4 2/3 innings and struck out five.
His third start was a bit of a disaster, as he allowed nine earned runs to the Orioles in 5 1/3 innings. The path forward at that point seemed clear, as he failed against a similarly lethal lineup on a night when he dropped his slider usage from 26% (against the Dodgers) to just 10%. Perhaps the slider was the difference-maker.
Paddack and the Twins clearly didn’t feel that was the case. The Chicago White Sox are as big of a step down in the opposing lineup as you’ll find, but Paddack dropped his slider usage down to 9% and posted one of the best outings of his entire career this week. He rode his usual pitch mix, including his fastball, changeup, and curveball, for seven innings of scoreless ball with 10 strikeouts. Four starts aren’t enough to stabilize Paddack’s pitch mix tendencies, but what have we learned?
Paddack’s wariness of using his slider is probably warranted. The pitch has allowed a .375 batting average and a 1.125 slugging percentage. It may be his second-best whiff pitch, but it’s allowing a ridiculous average exit velocity of 96.3 mph. It’s responsible for two of the four homers Paddack has allowed, despite being thrown just 13% of the time. It’s still a work in progress, and we probably won’t see Paddack spike the usage of it any time soon.
Paddack’s changeup has yet to round back into form. The pitch has been his best weapon across his career, but so far, it has just a 20.4% whiff rate. It’s also responsible for the other two homers he’s allowed, and has arguably been his second-worst offering as his go-to offspeed pitch, which has been thrown over 30% of the time.
The velocity on the fastball has stabilized at 94.3 mph, a great sign that Paddack is fully healthy and searching for his feel and consistency at this point, rather than settling into any particular pitch patterns. Nobody will weigh a gem against the White Sox too heavily, but hopefully, it was a turning point for Paddack. His fastball was as dominant as it has ever been, and the changeup drew a swing and miss one-third of the time on Monday.
Paddack’s recent dominant start contained shades of his previous peak in San Diego, rather than a new version we hope to see slinging a dominant slider. At this point, Paddack maintaining his stuff and getting his feel back has to be considered a win, no matter what lineup he shined against. As for us seeing the version of Chris Paddack the Twins were hoping for when they acquired him, the jury is still out.
Saturday night, Paddack will make his fifth start of the season. How do you think he'll perform against the Angels? What would you like to see from his pitch mix?
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