Resolving the Apparent Infield Logjam

[stringer bell]

Castro will be the primary shortstop until Correa returns? I think that is the proper call, given the alternatives. I suppose Lee should be about ready to return to the Saints, or at least do a rehab. By the time he is ready to help the Twins, Correa should be back. 

Farmer has a one-year deal and a buyout, if I'm not mistaken. 

[h2oface]

There isn't an infield logjam. It is thoughts like this that a team uses as an excuse to make a trade like Spencer Steer because you have Miranda and Lee and Farmer and Castro and Lewis, etc. And now, you are left with the wrong guy(s) traded (for garbage as it turned out, who was hurt when traded for and hoped just healed) when you need them, and those you chose over a Steer might suck after a good 4 months. Hell, right now we have to play Farmer everyday. And Correa finally starts a season hitting and now is hurt, again (hmmmmmm) and so is Lewis, again, and Lee, and and and.......... no one has been taking SS reps and that is bad, too. 

So no........ there is missing depth, and no logjam. Same with the outfield.

Arraez and Polanco gone, because of a "logjam". and we got Farmer and Castro and Martin starting. Margot leading off give me a break.....

[Alex]

4 hours ago, h2oface said:

There isn't an infield logjam. It is thoughts like this that a team uses as an excuse to make a trade like Spencer Steer because you have Miranda and Lee and Farmer and Castro and Lewis, etc. And now, you are left with the wrong guy(s) traded (for garbage as it turned out, who was hurt when traded for and hoped just healed) when you need them, and those you chose over a Steer might suck after a good 4 months. Hell, right now we have to play Farmer everyday. And Correa finally starts hitting and now is hurt, again (hmmmmmm) and so is Lewis, again, and Lee, and and and.......... no one has been taking SS reps and that is bad, too. 

So no........ there is missing depth, and no logjam. Same with the outfield.

Arraez and Polanco gone, because of a "logjam". and we got Farmer and Castro and Martin starting. Margot leading off give me a break.....

Very easy to say this now.  Steer could be used now but he still would have been deep on the depth chart and would likely just be getting his chance with the major league team.    Besides, that’s what competing teams do to try and get better.  
 

have you seen Polanco and arraez’s  numbers this season?

[Riverbrian]

22 hours ago, Alex said:

Very easy to say this now.  Steer could be used now but he still would have been deep on the depth chart and would likely just be getting his chance with the major league team.    Besides, that’s what competing teams do to try and get better.  
 

have you seen Polanco and arraez’s  numbers this season?

I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you didn't mean the way this post reads... yet still respond according to how it reads.

Based on how Steer performed last year with the Reds and how the entire Twins roster performed last year... If it's possible to mold those two worlds together.

Spencer Steer would have probably settled into an everyday role by June of last year and would have come into this season as a starter. If not... they would be horrible talent evaluators.  

Spencer played a healthy amount of 1B, 3B, OF and 2B last year.

The Twins:

1B - Donovan Solano played more games at 1B than anybody with 85.

3B - Lewis didn't arrive until May 29 and he managed to lead the team with 49 games played at 3B. This position was a revolving door of Farmer, Castro, Miranda and Solano again. 

OF - Taylor and Kepler with 126 and 124 games played in the OF. After that it drops all the way down to Castro with 83 games in the OF and then Wallner with 66 games played. 

Spencer Steer had a 582 AB's for the Reds last year. Only Carlos Correa had over 500 AB's for the Twins with 514. Donovan Solano was THIRD in AB's last year with 394.

Steers produced .820 OPS 

You would have to play worse players on purpose If Steer is deep on the depth chart.

With that said... Starting pitching is expensive. Steer and CES is expensive but that is what it costs. I don't blame the front office for the trade. 

 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Alex said:

...have you seen Polanco and arraez’s  numbers this season?

Have you seen Desclafani's numbers?

[Alex]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Have you seen Desclafani's numbers?

The throw in in the trade?

[Alex]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you didn't mean the way this post reads... yet still respond according to how it reads.

Based on Steer performed last year with the Reds and how the entire Twins roster performed last year... If it's possible to mold those two worlds together.

Spencer Steer would have probably settled into an everyday role by June of last year and would have come into this season as a starter. If not... they would be horrible talent evaluators.  

Spencer played a healthy amount of 1B, 3B, OF and 2B last year.

The Twins:

1B - Donovan Solano played more games at 1B than anybody with 85.

3B - Lewis didn't arrive until May 29 and he managed to lead the team with 49 games played at 3B. The After Lewis it was a revolving door of Farmer, Castro, Miranda and Solano again. 

OF - Taylor and Kepler with 126 and 124 games played in the OF. After that it drops all the way down to Castro with 83 games in the OF and then Wallner with 66 games played. 

Spencer Steer had a 582 AB's for the Reds last year. Only Carlos Correa had over 500 AB's for the Twins with 514. Donovan Solano was THIRD in AB's last year with 394.

Steers produced .820 OPS 

You would have to play worse players on purpose If Steer is deep on the depth chart.

With that said... Starting pitching is expensive. Steer and CES is expensive but that is what it costs. I don't blame the front office for the trade. 

 

It’s fair that I might be wrong.   My point was I was trying to say I don’t know that he would have gotten that chance here.   It took them a long time to promote Wallner, cut Gallo, and they still would have prioritized Salano and Castro, both of whom had good seasons.  

[ashbury]

On 4/13/2024 at 8:03 AM, USAFChief said:

But it does show the preposterousness*

*possibly not actually a word

It used to be.

Now it's postposterousness.

As for the topic at hand, loading up on high injury-risks and marginal talents in the bullpen is a bit like the way banks were loading up on sub-prime mortgages leading up to the 2008 financial meltdown, thinking that somehow risk was mitigated by a portfolio of way-too similar instruments.

[USAFChief]

55 minutes ago, Alex said:

The throw in in the trade?

No, the primary return. 

[Riverbrian]

4 hours ago, Alex said:

It’s fair that I might be wrong.   My point was I was trying to say I don’t know that he would have gotten that chance here.   It took them a long time to promote Wallner, cut Gallo, and they still would have prioritized Salano and Castro, both of whom had good seasons.  

That's possible because it's possible that preconceived notions were a reason he was included in the trade in the first place. 

But... based on results... Steer would be a very important part of this team and last years team. 

[Riverbrian]

4 hours ago, ashbury said:

It used to be.

Now it's postposterousness.

As for the topic at hand, loading up on high injury-risks and marginal talents in the bullpen is a bit like the way banks were loading up on sub-prime mortgages leading up to the 2008 financial meltdown, thinking that somehow risk was mitigated by a portfolio of way-too similar instruments.

I love parables. 

Any post with a parable gets my applause. 

It's like a waiter or waitress that not only brings your food but does it while also telling you a parable explaining how wonderful the prime rib is.  

[nicksaviking]

Logjam or no logjam, I'm pretty sure the idea (here, won't speak to ownership) of moving middle infielders wasn't to just dump excess quality players, it was to acquire a Sonny Gray replacement.

I still don't care that Polanco is gone, I care that the rotation is significantly worse than last year.

[nicksaviking]

5 hours ago, USAFChief said:

No, the primary return. 

Third piece at best. I doubt DeSclafani by himself would be able to fetch Topa and his three years of control in trade, let alone a top 100 prospect.

[jorgenswest]

Why does it matter? Whether primary or secondary he was slotted in a starter role upon acquisition. That role is going to be far more impactful on the 2024 team than a reliever or minor leaguers.

Teams planning to contend get better with each trade. Sellers sacrifice the current season to stockpile for the future. It is pretty sad that a team would entrust a starting pitcher role to a throw in from a trade. No team truly planning on contending for a pennant would do that. The other option is that he wasn’t a throw in and was a key piece in the trade and given a key role on the team.

[Linus]

10 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Why does it matter? Whether primary or secondary he was slotted in a starter role upon acquisition. That role is going to be far more impactful on the 2024 team than a reliever or minor leaguers.

Teams planning to contend get better with each trade. Sellers sacrifice the current season to stockpile for the future. It is pretty sad that a team would entrust a starting pitcher role to a throw in from a trade. No team truly planning on contending for a pennant would do that. The other option is that he wasn’t a throw in and was a key piece in the trade and given a key role on the team.

This pretty much sums it up for me. 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Third piece at best. I doubt DeSclafani by himself would be able to fetched Topa and his three years of control in trade, let alone a top 100 prospect.

At the risk of hijacking this thread, and further beating a dead horse, this was your post immediately prior to the above:

 

Logjam or no logjam, I'm pretty sure the idea (here, won't speak to ownership) of moving middle infielders wasn't to just dump excess quality players, it was to acquire a Sonny Gray replacement.

 

your post immediately above seems to disagree. 

Polanco was traded for a starter. They tried for one of Seattle's actual good ones, settled for Desclafani. The Polanco trade isnt made without  a starter in return. 

 

 

 

[chpettit19]

7 hours ago, Alex said:

It’s fair that I might be wrong.   My point was I was trying to say I don’t know that he would have gotten that chance here.   It took them a long time to promote Wallner, cut Gallo, and they still would have prioritized Salano and Castro, both of whom had good seasons.  

Solano likely never would've even been signed had Steer been here. But, even if he were, prioritizing Solano types over Steer types is the problem. Them not giving a chance to Steer is a flashing neon sign of a problem for this FO. Prioritizing Solano, Gallo, Castro, Farmer, and Santana types over Steer types is how you end up with this fake logjam of guys who's ceilings are "average, utterly replaceable MLB player."

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I love parables.

[Alex]

4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

That's possible because it's possible that preconceived notions were a reason he was included in the trade in the first place. 

But... based on results... Steer would be a very important part of this team and last years team. 

I agree but that’s why I said a lot of the analysis is hindsight.

[Alex]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Why does it matter? Whether primary or secondary he was slotted in a starter role upon acquisition. That role is going to be far more impactful on the 2024 team than a reliever or minor leaguers.

Teams planning to contend get better with each trade. Sellers sacrifice the current season to stockpile for the future. It is pretty sad that a team would entrust a starting pitcher role to a throw in from a trade. No team truly planning on contending for a pennant would do that. The other option is that he wasn’t a throw in and was a key piece in the trade and given a key role on the team.

Because the discussion was about the “infield logjam.”   My first response was in reply to someone who was implying they shouldn’t have traded Arráez and Polanco.   I think they would have traded Polanco anyway (and you don’t have to go far to read most annalysis that says Dedclafani was at the bottom of the priority in that trade) and their return on Arráez is hard to argue.  

[Alex]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Solano likely never would've even been signed had Steer been here. But, even if he were, prioritizing Solano types over Steer types is the problem. Them not giving a chance to Steer is a flashing neon sign of a problem for this FO. Prioritizing Solano, Gallo, Castro, Farmer, and Santana types over Steer types is how you end up with this fake logjam of guys who's ceilings are "average, utterly replaceable MLB player."

Maybe, but they’ve prioritized depth, and as mentioned, those players besides Gallo all had good seasons last year for the roles they played.  
 

For example, they added Margot this year as well, despite having a top outfield prospect who looks pretty ready (among other options in the minors). 
 

 

[chpettit19]

15 minutes ago, Alex said:

Maybe, but they’ve prioritized depth, and as mentioned, those players besides Gallo all had good seasons last year for the roles they played.  
 

For example, they added Margot this year as well, despite having a top outfield prospect who looks pretty ready (among other options in the minors). 
 

 

And that's the problem. Donavon Solano was 3rd on the team in PAs last year. That's the role he played. He walked to the plate more times than anyone but Correa and Kepler. Castro was 4th. 

They're sacrificing ceiling for floor then they're shocked when they can't win playoff games for 20 years. If you think Solano and Castro had good years for the guys taking the 3rd and 4th most trips to the plate for the Twins we'll just have to agree to disagree. They had good years for the roles they were supposed to fill on paper. But, as some of us are trying to point out, paper roles don't mean anything. The roles they actually played were full time players on a team with deep playoff run aspirations. They aren't the guys you want stepping to the plate more than all but 2 guys on your team. Just like Santana shouldn't be, but will be. 

Margot was acquired as CF depth. I assume you're talking about Emma as the top prospect, but comparing him to Steer who almost immediately made his big league debut after being traded is a bad comparison. Emma hadn't stepped foot on a AA field before this season. Counting on him over a Margot type is very different than counting on Steer over Solano. 

Whether you want to say depth or logjam, it's the same to me. It's all fake news. They don't have real depth if your major league depth to start the season is made up of easily replaceable pieces you hope are simply league average, or only hit against lefties. It's the same thing for the logjam. There's no logjam if all you're looking at is the 8 starting fielding positions on opening day. Their definition of depth and/or a logjam is why they're never a real threat in the playoffs. 

[Hubie29]

Like I said, a logjam made out of twigs. Can't agree more with chpettit19

[TwinsDr2021]

On 4/13/2024 at 4:21 PM, wabene said:

The blame here is misplaced. This front office took an organization in shambles and has brought it a long way. Yes a true contender should be the goal, but how quickly we forget how bad it was. From the Twins Way of the McPhail/Kelly era to pitch to contact and total system failure. This off-season the front office was hung out to dry by ownership.

I am not going to say the last FO was excellent or even all that great but shambles, really? This FO walked in with following players Berrios, Gibson, Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Arraez, Garver, Rogers, Pressly (used to get Alcala), Rosario, Dozier, Escobar (used to get Duran), Polanco, a top minor league system with Gordon, AK, Gonsalves, Romero, Jay, Stewart, Mejia, Jorge, Ynoa, Hildenberger, Thorpe, Baddoo, Jax, Wade, Rortvedt, Chargois and more.

The second year they were here the made the playoffs. Lets be real honest the main contributors to this years team so far are the former front office players, trading former front office players and free agents. Don't get me wrong I do give them credit for trades regardless if it the former FO guys (Arraez, Pressly, Rogers, and such) or their guys (Petty, Steer, etc...)

You can talk about analytics and other things and I will agree with you the last one was far behind in that sort of stuff, but remember this front office job was considered the best opening back then by baseball people because of all the players talent (major and minor)

[TwinsDr2021]

22 hours ago, Alex said:

Very easy to say this now.  Steer could be used now but he still would have been deep on the depth chart and would likely just be getting his chance with the major league team.    Besides, that’s what competing teams do to try and get better.  
 

have you seen Polanco and arraez’s  numbers this season?

Arraez - .254/.347/.317

Polanco - .196/.318, .304

Not great but trending up, Arraez has raised his average 70 points in 8 games, and Polanco has raised his OPS by over 100 in the same time. Arraez would be tied for 2nd on the Twins with his OBP and Polanco would be 4th, Arraez 3rd in BA, and Polanco at .196 would be tied for 5th with Julien.

[Alex]

9 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

And that's the problem. Donavon Solano was 3rd on the team in PAs last year. That's the role he played. He walked to the plate more times than anyone but Correa and Kepler. Castro was 4th. 

They're sacrificing ceiling for floor then they're shocked when they can't win playoff games for 20 years. If you think Solano and Castro had good years for the guys taking the 3rd and 4th most trips to the plate for the Twins we'll just have to agree to disagree. They had good years for the roles they were supposed to fill on paper. But, as some of us are trying to point out, paper roles don't mean anything. The roles they actually played were full time players on a team with deep playoff run aspirations. They aren't the guys you want stepping to the plate more than all but 2 guys on your team. Just like Santana shouldn't be, but will be. 

Margot was acquired as CF depth. I assume you're talking about Emma as the top prospect, but comparing him to Steer who almost immediately made his big league debut after being traded is a bad comparison. Emma hadn't stepped foot on a AA field before this season. Counting on him over a Margot type is very different than counting on Steer over Solano. 

Whether you want to say depth or logjam, it's the same to me. It's all fake news. They don't have real depth if your major league depth to start the season is made up of easily replaceable pieces you hope are simply league average, or only hit against lefties. It's the same thing for the logjam. There's no logjam if all you're looking at is the 8 starting fielding positions on opening day. Their definition of depth and/or a logjam is why they're never a real threat in the playoffs. 

Solano was a 110 OPS + hitter last year and Castro was a 105 OPS+ hitter while playing a lot positions and adding value by running.    They're not more valuable or better than Steer would be but they ended up as important players and depth on the roster all while having pretty good seasons.   

 

14 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Arraez - .254/.347/.317

Polanco - .196/.318, .304

Not great but trending up, Arraez has raised his average 70 points in 8 games, and Polanco has raised his OPS by over 100 in the same time. Arraez would be tied for 2nd on the Twins with his OBP and Polanco would be 4th, Arraez 3rd in BA, and Polanco at .196 would be tied for 5th with Julien.

It's early and they could easily outperform much of our roster, sadly.  However, it was easy to see why Polanco was traded when he was and I really think people who are still bringing up Arraez as if rationale GM would undo that trade at this point, especially for him as infield depth.   And if we had kept him, we'd be complaining about the starting pitching.

My comment was rather flippant because if they were on the roster today, there might be arguments that they should have been traded before the season in order to get value back for them.    The only reason this is being dredged up is because of a horrific sequence of injuries that lead to the left side of the infield being decimated and "the depth" performing pretty badly.   No team is going to have solid depth when looking at their starting 3B, SS (especially when they are the two best players on the team), and their top replacement going down and be able to easily cover that depth.  

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Alex said:

Solano was a 110 OPS + hitter last year and Castro was a 105 OPS+ hitter while playing a lot positions and adding value by running.    They're not more valuable or better than Steer would be but they ended up as important players and depth on the roster all while having pretty good seasons.   

The bolded part is the point. When combined with your previous statement that they prioritize those guys over Steer it is 100% the point. They are prioritizing worse players in the name of depth. Steer provides just as much depth as either Solano or Castro does (1 player's worth) while being better. They prioritize short side of a platoon bats over better players in the name of depth and ideal,  on paper lineups. They're sacrificing skill for perceived depth and wishful thinking that their lesser players will play less. 

That'd be all well and good if Solano and Castro put up 110 and 105 OPS+ as part-time depth pieces, but they weren't part-time depth pieces they were full-time starting pieces. If the guys with the 3rd and 4th most PAs on your team have 110 and 105 OPS+ you can't be shocked when your offense is inconsistent at best.

Injuries happen. All the time. Especially when you build around 3 guys with long injury histories (Buxton, Lewis, Kirilloff) and sign a guy who failed 2 physicals (Correa). They end up playing Solano, Castro, and now Santana types every day, and seem to be confused as to why the offense isn't very good most of the time. 

Prioritizing weak depth over actual talent while pairing it with injury prone stars is exactly how you get league average guys, or short side of a platoon guys, playing everyday while your offense struggles. It shouldn't be surprising that continuing to follow that strategy is continuing to have the same results.

[TwinsDr2021]

17 minutes ago, Alex said:

However, it was easy to see why Polanco was traded

I disagree with this, he was traded for basically Santana, Topa, DeSclafani and two minor league players. If that that was the return I would rather they didn't even pick up his option, and used the 10.5 in a difference spot. IMO the FO thought he was worth more than he was.

[Alex]

27 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The bolded part is the point. When combined with your previous statement that they prioritize those guys over Steer it is 100% the point. They are prioritizing worse players in the name of depth. Steer provides just as much depth as either Solano or Castro does (1 player's worth) while being better. They prioritize short side of a platoon bats over better players in the name of depth and ideal,  on paper lineups. They're sacrificing skill for perceived depth and wishful thinking that their lesser players will play less. 

That'd be all well and good if Solano and Castro put up 110 and 105 OPS+ as part-time depth pieces, but they weren't part-time depth pieces they were full-time starting pieces. If the guys with the 3rd and 4th most PAs on your team have 110 and 105 OPS+ you can't be shocked when your offense is inconsistent at best.

Injuries happen. All the time. Especially when you build around 3 guys with long injury histories (Buxton, Lewis, Kirilloff) and sign a guy who failed 2 physicals (Correa). They end up playing Solano, Castro, and now Santana types every day, and seem to be confused as to why the offense isn't very good most of the time. 

Prioritizing weak depth over actual talent while pairing it with injury prone stars is exactly how you get league average guys, or short side of a platoon guys, playing everyday while your offense struggles. It shouldn't be surprising that continuing to follow that strategy is continuing to have the same results.

OPS+ of 105 and 110 are above average players.   They got a lot of at bats because of where the injuries were and their flexibility.  They weren't two of the three or four best hitters on the team, they just got a lot of ABs.    I'm not clear who they should have prioritized over these guys, especially as they were initially the backups and it was the rookies, Lewis, and Jeffers that were better hitters on the team last year.  Solano and Castro were 26/27th players on the roster.  If you don't think getting above average value out of those positions is a win, then I'm not sure what we're talking about here. 

It's early and I don't disagree that the roster construction this year hasn't looked good.  If things stay as they are, the money for Farmer and Santana could clearly have been better spent and Castro should have been a last option. 

I agree that sometimes I wish they would trust prospects more, but I won't re-litigate trades that attempted to (and did) shore up weaknesses that we'd otherwise be complaining about.  In fact, people were posting things like "we should trade Brooks Lee for another starter!" even this year.  The Mahle trade was unfortunate but it's in hindsight.   It was the cost of doing business for starting pitching and it was at a position that the organization still has a lot of depth (just not to the point of being tradeable). 

 

[Alex]

9 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I disagree with this, he was traded for basically Santana, Topa, DeSclafani and two minor league players. If that that was the return I would rather they didn't even pick up his option, and used the 10.5 in a difference spot. IMO the FO thought he was worth more than he was.

If you think they should have just dumped his salary, then I think it's not hard to make a logical conclusion as to why he was traded.  I think they got more than they could have gotten with just 10.5M, especially when you consider you can't buy prospects.    I agree on Santana, as I mentioned above, but hopefully that turns around.