Edouard Julien is the French-Canadian God of Walks

[USAFChief]

47 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I see a lot of people suggesting "just fouling off close pitches." How easy do people think it is to "just foul off" a major league pitch? Do people have examples of people who do it regularly that they can point to as an example of it being a true skill and strategy?

It's not easy.

However, he'll foul off a lot more close 2 strike pitches by swinging than by taking.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

It's not easy.

However, he'll foul off a lot more close 2 strike pitches by swinging than by taking.

That is certainly true. But would it make a meaningful difference in his results? How many 2 strike "foul off" attempts turn into double plays? How many come in a full count that turns ball 4 into an out? I have no idea, but I think people overestimate what effect these 2 strike approaches they preach actually have.

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

That is certainly true. But would it make a meaningful difference in his results? How many 2 strike "foul off" attempts turn into double plays? How many come in a full count that turns ball 4 into an out? I have no idea, but I think people overestimate what effect these 2 strike approaches they preach actually have.

Maybe. I tend to think people underestimate the costs of striking out.

Interesting question. 

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Maybe. I tend to think people underestimate the costs of striking out.

Interesting question. 

I think it's a far more complicated subject than can be reasonably discussed on internet forums because there's way too many nuances and factors that go into it all. It is an interesting topic with lots of interesting questions, though.

[mnfireman]

Looking at his splits, Julien seemed to be get walk "happy" later in the season:

4/1 - 7/31 - .298/.386/.536 (.922 OPS)  10 HR, 18 RBI, 25/65 BB/K ratio. 11.8 BB%, 30.8 K%, .407 BAbip

8/1 - 10/1 - .223/.376/.369 (.745 OPS)  6 HR, 19 RBI, 39/63 BB/K ratio. 19.8 BB%, 32.0 k%, .326 BAbip

Whether this was due to batting lead-off more often, league adjustment, or change in approach by him, his average and power were way down after August 1 while his BB% was way up. His K% remained roughly equal. His BAbip regressed to closer to league average (.297), but good things happened when he put the ball in play. 

Here are his splits with 2 strikes - .147/.299/.199 (.498 OPS) League avg - .172/.249/.273 (.522 OPS)

Here are fullcount splits - .119/.485./.220 (.708 OPS) League avg - .191/.454/.325 (.779 OPS)

He has shown that he has a good eye at the plate, league average BB% is 8.6%, and that he can hit the ball hard (44.9 hard hit %), but he needs to improve his 2 strike hitting, and as previously stated, his in the zone contact rate. 

[Karbo]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Those were different times. I remember pitching to those hitters. It was almost always the easiest outs of any game. The batters would be swinging for contact and bounce one back to the mound or hit a meek dribbler for an automatic out to an infielder or weakly pop out. For me, pitching in the 60s and 70s was easier than pitching in the 90s because of those weak two strike swings. 

My success as a hitter was compromised by my contact-oriented swing with two strikes, which I often felt affected my confidence as a batter. I always hit a very weak .300 and was more a defensive player and pitcher as a result. I do think that batters can be forceful and still slightly more attuned to making contact with two strikes and this was a big change in the game several decades ago. 

I expect Julien will make some very slight adjustments this season and punishing more pitches completely in the zone may be seen more often. I don't want to see him offering at those pitches at the edge of the zone or just off of the plate. Julien is a force at the plate and the strike zone mastery is his gold.

I used that approach and hit .450 in my 3 years. I never was a power hitter but hit a lot of doubles and triples.

[Melissa]

47 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Looking at his splits, Julien seemed to be get walk "happy" later in the season:

4/1 - 7/31 - .298/.386/.536 (.922 OPS)  10 HR, 18 RBI, 25/65 BB/K ratio. 11.8 BB%, 30.8 K%, .407 BAbip

8/1 - 10/1 - .223/.376/.369 (.745 OPS)  6 HR, 19 RBI, 39/63 BB/K ratio. 19.8 BB%, 32.0 k%, .326 BAbip

Whether this was due to batting lead-off more often, league adjustment, or change in approach by him, his average and power were way down after August 1 while his BB% was way up. His K% remained roughly equal. 

I wonder also whether the grind of a long season started to have an effect. We see this pattern mentioned quite a bit for players as they move from college to the minors to the majors.

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I think it's a far more complicated subject than can be reasonably discussed on internet forums because there's way too many nuances and factors that go into it all. It is an interesting topic with lots of interesting questions, though.

I totally agree that there is a lot of nuances that are difficult to address in this medium.   He did have the highest OBP on the team so that tells you a little something about the relative effectiveness of his approach.

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

How easy do people think it is to "just foul off" a major league pitch?

Billy Beane: It's not that hard, Scott. Tell him Wash.

Ron Washington: It's incredibly hard.

Billy Beane: Hey, anything worth doing is. And we're gonna teach you.

 

If Julien swings more often at pitches that aren't strikes it will lead to more outs, not fewer.

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Billy Beane: It's not that hard, Scott. Tell him Wash.

Ron Washington: It's incredibly hard.

Billy Beane: Hey, anything worth doing is. And we're gonna teach you.

 

If Julien swings more often at pitches that aren't strikes it will lead to more outs, not fewer.

Baseball Savant agrees with you. His takes on pitches over the heart of the plate are a problem, his takes in the shadow are not. Unsurprisingly the key to being a successful major league hitter is taking advantage of mistake pitches over the heart of the plate and not trying to be successful on "pitcher's pitches" on the corners.

[DJL44]

49 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Baseball Savant agrees with you. His takes on pitches over the heart of the plate are a problem, his takes in the shadow are not. Unsurprisingly the key to being a successful major league hitter is taking advantage of mistake pitches over the heart of the plate and not trying to be successful on "pitcher's pitches" on the corners.

I would like to see the platoon split on the pitches over the plate. I am guessing he has more trouble recognizing when he is getting a meatball when a lefty throws it.

[tony&rodney]

6 hours ago, Karbo said:

I used that approach and hit .450 in my 3 years. I never was a power hitter but hit a lot of doubles and triples.

I'm trying to think of a contact hitter in the last twenty years who hit a bunch of doubles and triples. Barry Bonds? Would you say he was a contact hitter? There must be someone else. Never thought of anyone who hit balls in the gap over over the heads of the outfielders as contact hitters. Oh well. 

[Karbo]

9 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm trying to think of a contact hitter in the last twenty years who hit a bunch of doubles and triples. Barry Bonds? Would you say he was a contact hitter? There must be someone else. Never thought of anyone who hit balls in the gap over over the heads of the outfielders as contact hitters. Oh well. 

Carew, Gwenn, Boggs, Arraez to name a few. You don't have to be a contact hitter to lower Ks though. Killebrew had a 2 strike approach and so did Allison. Get on base and score is the name of the game.

[jmlease1]

16 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Carew, Gwenn, Boggs, Arraez to name a few. You don't have to be a contact hitter to lower Ks though. Killebrew had a 2 strike approach and so did Allison. Get on base and score is the name of the game.

I assume you meant Gwynn, but regardless all of them except Arraez have been retired for over 20 years. Yes, getting on base is the name of the game, but to score you need some guys behind you to hit with some pop because it's hard to put up a crooked number with a bunch of singles hitters. Part of the concern with Arraez (beyond the knees) was whether or not he would consistently hit those doubles; when he's slugging .420-.470 he's a heck of a lot better than when he's under .400. 30 doubles, vs 15.

[Major League Ready]

Julien is not the type of hitter that is going to drive that ball on the black.  He might prolong the AB but he also is not going to draw as many walks.  His OBP would suggest he knows what he is doing.  Now, could he get better at anticipating what pitchers are trying to do with him and make solid contact on those pitches on the corner?  Sure, that's what you hope from all players as they mature.  Wallner and Lewis are in this same boat.

I also think the challenge system or automated strike zone are not so far away.  He is going to be a better player when it arrives at the ML level.

[Karbo]

39 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I assume you meant Gwynn, but regardless all of them except Arraez have been retired for over 20 years. Yes, getting on base is the name of the game, but to score you need some guys behind you to hit with some pop because it's hard to put up a crooked number with a bunch of singles hitters. Part of the concern with Arraez (beyond the knees) was whether or not he would consistently hit those doubles; when he's slugging .420-.470 he's a heck of a lot better than when he's under .400. 30 doubles, vs 15.

Again I'll say a 2 strike approach doesn't mean you're a slap or singles hitter. Just let it rip until you have 2 strikes. Even with 2 strikes, you may get a gift from the baseball gods and get a hanger or meatball, then let it rip. The key is putting the ball in play by making solid contact. Who knows, it could be a hit, an error, lost in the sun or crowd. If someone is on base the chances for a positive outcome increase. After all a K gives about 0% chance of something good happening. If you like 10-12 Ks a game with 1 or 2 HRs that's fine. I prefer to see more action on the field then that!

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Again I'll say a 2 strike approach doesn't mean you're a slap or singles hitter. Just let it rip until you have 2 strikes. Even with 2 strikes, you may get a gift from the baseball gods and get a hanger or meatball, then let it rip. The key is putting the ball in play by making solid contact. Who knows, it could be a hit, an error, lost in the sun or crowd. If someone is on base the chances for a positive outcome increase. After all a K gives about 0% chance of something good happening. If you like 10-12 Ks a game with 1 or 2 HRs that's fine. I prefer to see more action on the field then that!

How easy do you think it is to go from a "2 strike approach" that doesn't include a "just let it rip" swing to picking up that a "hanger or meatball" is coming while in that "2 strike approach" and switching to your "just let it rip" swing? Killebrew and Allison weren't facing 100 MPH fastballs and low- to mid-80s breaking balls in the same at bat. There's a limit to hitter's abilities to do what you're asking.

[Fatbat]

@chpettit19 prolonging ABs and getting multiple base runners on chases guys off the mound. One would think it would be innovative to have 4 guys that are OBP heavy in a lineup sprinkled in with sluggers to do as much damage to a SP as possible. If pitch counts are limited to 85-100 and you get every SP to that point thru 4 innings. That team better have 2 long reliever’s to even get close to beating you in a 3 game series. Sorry about getting off topic!

[DJL44]

53 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

How easy do you think it is to go from a "2 strike approach" that doesn't include a "just let it rip" swing to picking up that a "hanger or meatball" is coming while in that "2 strike approach" and switching to your "just let it rip" swing? Killebrew and Allison weren't facing 100 MPH fastballs and low- to mid-80s breaking balls in the same at bat. There's a limit to hitter's abilities to do what you're asking.

Correct. Most humans can't change their approach in a tenth of a second. It's difficult enough to change their strategy between pitches, let alone DURING a pitch. If you're looking to foul off a breaking pitch on the black you aren't going to be able to get out in front of a fastball down the heart of the plate.

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

One would think it would be innovative to have 4 guys that are OBP heavy in a lineup sprinkled in with sluggers

You typically want to put the OBP guys at the top of the lineup to make sure they bat the most often. Often it is the sluggers who are the OBP guys because they're the best at recognizing pitches. If you can recognize pitches well you might as well swing with power and make the most of the at-bat.

[chpettit19]

29 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

@chpettit19 prolonging ABs and getting multiple base runners on chases guys off the mound. One would think it would be innovative to have 4 guys that are OBP heavy in a lineup sprinkled in with sluggers to do as much damage to a SP as possible. If pitch counts are limited to 85-100 and you get every SP to that point thru 4 innings. That team better have 2 long reliever’s to even get close to beating you in a 3 game series. Sorry about getting off topic!

For sure you want high OBP guys. As many as you can get. I'm not disagreeing with that at all. I would put them all at the top of the lineup, though. That'd raise the pitch count even quicker as they'd get more ABs. I'm pushing back on how easy it is to "prolong ABs." Hitting major league pitching in this day and age is harder than it's ever been. "Just fight off close pitches with 2 strikes" and "have a 2 strike approach" are thrown around a lot around here. I'm wondering how easy people think that is. Same with "just go the other way." Velocity and movement go up and up every year. It's not that easy to foul off 2 strike pitches on the black. It's not that easy to lay off 92 MPH sliders off the outside corner. Being able to do both is nearly impossible.

[Fatbat]

@chpettit19agreed! Thats why I believe Julien is undervalued. Also why we shouldn’t be concerned with his average defense. He should develop his hit tool against lefties and being a little more aggressive when a pitcher lays one in the box as much as he works on his defense. 

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

@chpettit19agreed! Thats why I believe Julien is undervalued. Also why we shouldn’t be concerned with his average defense. He should develop his hit tool against lefties and being a little more aggressive when a pitcher lays one in the box as much as he works on his defense. 

It's actually a little surprising to me that he struggles so much against lefties. I'd have guessed someone with his eye would have the best chance of succeeding lefty on lefty because he'd be able to lay off pitches better. Hopefully it's just a lack of exposure to them, and he can get in the cage against a bunch of lefties all offseason to get a better feel for reading those pitches and then be able to attack them like he does righties. He's got a chance to be really, really good if he can put it all together. Hopefully we get to enjoy watching him grow in a Twins uni.

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

For sure you want high OBP guys. As many as you can get. I'm not disagreeing with that at all. I would put them all at the top of the lineup, though. That'd raise the pitch count even quicker as they'd get more ABs. I'm pushing back on how easy it is to "prolong ABs." Hitting major league pitching in this day and age is harder than it's ever been. "Just fight off close pitches with 2 strikes" and "have a 2 strike approach" are thrown around a lot around here. I'm wondering how easy people think that is. Same with "just go the other way." Velocity and movement go up and up every year. It's not that easy to foul off 2 strike pitches on the black. It's not that easy to lay off 92 MPH sliders off the outside corner. Being able to do both is nearly impossible.

I'm in full agreement with this statement. 

The goal is to score runs. The batters are doing everything they can to hit the ball. Velocity does make a difference. Hitters can punish 85-90 mph fastballs and fight off a few breaking pitches, but on those  occasions where the pitcher is throwing near triple digits on the edges of the zone (up and in or down and away), life as a hitter becomes very difficult. Sliders are  ridiculous.

I think one of the greatest pitching duels of recent times was Ohtani versus Trout in the WBC last March. The best hitters in the world has a very tough task when facing the best pitchers in the world. 

Julien is about the best offense the Twins have at this time and I'm thinking he improves quite a bit from last year to this season ...... or at least I hope so. His development will depend on his disciplined decisions within the zone.

[DJL44]

52 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Hitting major league pitching in this day and age is harder than it's ever been.

I heard a good radio interview with Wallner that illustrates this. He was describing his game preparation and said he would take 15-20 pitches from the machine with it set to fastballs, then switch to breaking balls, etc. Provus asked him if he switches things up to randomly go between fastballs and sliders and Wallner's response was (paraphrased) "No, it's already hard enough to hit without doing that".

[jmlease1]

49 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

It's actually a little surprising to me that he struggles so much against lefties. I'd have guessed someone with his eye would have the best chance of succeeding lefty on lefty because he'd be able to lay off pitches better. Hopefully it's just a lack of exposure to them, and he can get in the cage against a bunch of lefties all offseason to get a better feel for reading those pitches and then be able to attack them like he does righties. He's got a chance to be really, really good if he can put it all together. Hopefully we get to enjoy watching him grow in a Twins uni.

He did fine against them in A ball, but struggled in AA (.649 OPS), did fine against AAA (.758) and then the dreadful .447 in MLB. Pretty small sample sizes; he hasn't gotten 400 PA against lefties in his entire professional career yet, but it's still easily his biggest area of concern, especially considering how Rocco tried to protect him against lefties last season. If he can get that OPS up around .700 against lefties, he's going to be a monster to deal with. But the changes in the rules to eliminate the LOOGY and solid balance in the Twins potential lineups will also help him from getting targeted too much.

I'm hoping Julien is our leadoff guy this season from the jump. His OBP is perfect for it and he's got more speed than people realize. He's also shown real ability to swipe bags in the minors that was under-utilized last season and i hope they let him off the chain more now that's he's had 2023 under his belt. 59 for 71 as a pro is nothing to sneeze at, and with the larger bases and limited number of throws over to 1B that pitchers get now, I'd like to see Julien run more. 

[wabene]

Julien has a chance to be a special player. Talk about a diamond in the rough. I also see him as the least likely regression candidate considering his skills. Here's hoping that him not facing leftys and not attempting to steal much were the brass just easing him into his first MLB season. If he can make some improvements, yes monster is a good description. 

I hope my Quebecoise neighbors don't get too offended during game threads by my French references and juggling mine gifs. They should know I'm just jealous of their backcountry skiing up in the Chic-Chocs. 

[chpettit19]

36 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

He did fine against them in A ball, but struggled in AA (.649 OPS), did fine against AAA (.758) and then the dreadful .447 in MLB. Pretty small sample sizes; he hasn't gotten 400 PA against lefties in his entire professional career yet, but it's still easily his biggest area of concern, especially considering how Rocco tried to protect him against lefties last season. If he can get that OPS up around .700 against lefties, he's going to be a monster to deal with. But the changes in the rules to eliminate the LOOGY and solid balance in the Twins potential lineups will also help him from getting targeted too much.

I'm hoping Julien is our leadoff guy this season from the jump. His OBP is perfect for it and he's got more speed than people realize. He's also shown real ability to swipe bags in the minors that was under-utilized last season and i hope they let him off the chain more now that's he's had 2023 under his belt. 59 for 71 as a pro is nothing to sneeze at, and with the larger bases and limited number of throws over to 1B that pitchers get now, I'd like to see Julien run more. 

Super small sample sizes on the lefty stuff so there's certainly reason to believe he has more in him there. I'd like to see the Twins get away from so much pinch hitting and focus the platooning more on that day's starter. Especially early in the year. Like through July at least. I don't mind not starting lefties against lefties, but give them a shot to work on their skills by allowing them to face the lefties once the game is going. Give yourself some larger sample sizes in both stats and eyes on in game ABs to get a better idea of whether or not any of the young lefties can succeed against same handed pitchers. As for the LOOGY stuff, I'd actually target Julien more as an opposing manager if Rocco continues to pinch hit for him every time. I'd rather get his bat out of the lineup than the other lefties. If there's a lefty in the 8 or 3 hole I'm using my lefty to catch one of them and Julien (assuming Julien is leading off) 100% of the time if the game situation allows it.

I'd certainly expect Julien to be leadoff against any and every righty to start the year. Not sure what other option would make more sense. I don't think he's all that fast (41st percentile in sprint speed last year), but I would like to see if he can snag some extra bags here and there. I'd hope they'd give him the green light early and that it'd just be a matter of how comfortable he is reading the pitcher. I'd hope to see some incremental increase in steals this year. I'd like to see them improve their baserunning overall. Lewis, Julien, Castro, Gordon, Martin, and ERod bring some extra athleticism to the 40-man that we haven't seen a lot of recently. Hopefully that can bring with it some improved base running that includes some steals and more taking of extra bases.

[Scott51104]

I'm just pleased he is on the MN Twins.

[ashbury]

On 1/4/2024 at 9:21 AM, Riverbrian said:

dieu des promenades

Never trust Google Translate, or you'll end up telling a Hungarian his hovercraft is full of eels.

I checked with a genuine Canadian (admittedly from Toronto, but he's not an uneducated boor like me) and he says "walk" is ""but sur balles".  Only now do I realize I should have asked for the plural, "walks", so I'm not sure if it should be "de" or "des" in your version, but he'll really wonder what's wrong with me if I go back and ask again.