Where Will Jorge Polanco Be Traded?

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, laloesch said:

Exactly!  This discussion is so farfetched it's laughable.  Miami IS NOT going to trade for an older player like Polanco in exchange for one of its prized starters.  It's just foolish to think otherwise.  The only way that happens is if the Twins throw in Brooks Lee or Walter Jenkins, (possibly both) to get Luzardo or Cabrera, which there's no way in Hades the Twins do that, but that's what it would take.

What the Twins COULD do is work out a deal for Sandy Alcantara who just underwent UCL TJ and will miss all of 2024.  You might be able to swing something with Miami that's not as painful and get him without emptying the farm knowing that he's a free agent in 2028.  Of course that does nothing to help the Twins this season in the starting pitching department.  

1. It's Walker, not Walter. 2. Nobody in baseball is trading a top 100 prospect for Cabrera. He's out of options and can't throw strikes. He had the 2nd worst walk rate amongst pitchers who threw at least 90 innings last year. He's closer to being moved to the pen than the Marlins getting a top 100 prospect for him.

[harmony55]

23 hours ago, harmony55 said:

Seattle has its own financial constraints and is unlikely to take on the combined $21 million owed Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler this year, much less the annual $25 million-plus needed to land Blake Snell.

The Mariners may well have interest in Kepler but have little need for Polanco.

Last season Seattle received 1.2 fWAR in 46 games from Josh Rojas and 2.2 fWAR in 104 games from rookie Jose Caballero. That’s a combined 3.4 fWAR in 150 games from the potential 2024 second-base platoon of the lefthand-hitting Rojas and righthand-hitting Caballero.

As a point of reference, last season 30-year-old Jorge Polanco posted 1.5 fWAR in 80 games. For Seattle, the 29-year-old Rojas and 27-year-old Caballero each accrued 2023 WAR at a per-game rate that matched or exceeded that of Polanco. A platoon might not be necessary.

The Mariners await the projected 2024 debut of intriguing prospect Ryan Bliss, a starting second baseman in the 2023 Futures Game and Defensive Player of the Year in the Arizona Fall League. Last year across Double A and Triple A, the now 24-year-old Bliss posted a .304/.378/.524/.902 line with 23 home runs and 55 stolen bases.

Seattle has offseason needs but Polanco would add little to the roster.

On another forum, a contributor calculated the 2023 WAR rate per 600 plate appearances for second basemen Jorge Polanco of the Twins and Josh Rojas and Jose Caballero of the Mariners:

Polanco 2.62

Rojas 5.37

Caballero 4.71

https://www.marinertalk.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=8790&start=1110#p276363

Polanco may well have value to a team other than the Mariners. Probably the Twins.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I THINK there could be a chance here that Polanco could be moved for prospects to a team, and then some of those prospects could be added to a deal for a starter somewhere else. 

Like, if a team really likes a pitching prospect from a team that wants Polanco, then it could almost be a 3 team type deal in that sense right?

[laloesch]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

1. It's Walker, not Walter. 2. Nobody in baseball is trading a top 100 prospect for Cabrera. He's out of options and can't throw strikes. He had the 2nd worst walk rate amongst pitchers who threw at least 90 innings last year. He's closer to being moved to the pen than the Marlins getting a top 100 prospect for him.

yes, a typo and should have been spelled WALKER Jenkins, (strike me down with lightning for a spelling error lol).  Anyhow, I only mentioned Cabrera per the earlier poster's point that he is a starting pitcher that the Marlins CONTROL through 2028 and worth pursuing.  Options were not brought up.  The prize is Luzardo though, I agree. 

And I don't agree that Cabrera can't throw strikes. In 2023 he struck out 118 batters in 99.2 innings.  If (and I state if) the Twins flipped Polanco for Cabrera in a trade (it would take more than that), I'd take that in a heartbeat and RUN. 

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, laloesch said:

yes, a typo and should have been spelled WALKER Jenkins, (strike me down with lightning for a spelling error lol).  Anyhow, I only mentioned Cabrera per the earlier poster point's that he is a starting pitcher that the Marlins CONTROL through 2028.  Options were not brought up.  The prize is Luzardo though, I agree. 

And I don't agree that Cabrera can't throw strikes. In 2023 he struck out 118 batters in 99.2 innings.  If (and I state if) the Twins flipped Polanco for Cabrera in a trade (it would take more than that), I'd take that in a heartbeat and RUN. 

He walked 66 people in those 99.2 innings. That's 6 walks per 9 innings. He walked 15.2% of the batters he faced last year. Both second to last in MLB for pitchers who threw at least 90 innings. He threw pitches in the strike zone 41.5% of the time last year. 6th worst in baseball. He is really bad at throwing strikes.

[Craig Arko]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I THINK there could be a chance here that Polanco could be moved for prospects to a team, and then some of those prospects could be added to a deal for a starter somewhere else. 

Like, if a team really likes a pitching prospect from a team that wants Polanco, then it could almost be a 3 team type deal in that sense right?

I think this is a very likely scenario, and part of why things are developing slowly.

[laloesch]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

He walked 66 people in those 99.2 innings. That's 6 walks per 9 innings. He walked 15.2% of the batters he faced last year. Both second to last in MLB for pitchers who threw at least 90 innings. He threw pitches in the strike zone 41.5% of the time last year. 6th worst in baseball. He is really bad at throwing strikes.

and yet he recorded 119 strikeouts in 99 innings.  Interestingly, Ken Rosenthal previously stated "Texas Ranger's infielder Ezequiel Duran is the kind of infielder the Marlins would want for Cabrera, although Ranger's general manager Chris Young has said the club has a super high bar as to what Duran would cost during in a trade." per Bleacher report. Would an age 30 Polanco be equivalent? Probably not.

[chpettit19]

23 minutes ago, laloesch said:

and yet he recorded 119 strikeouts in 99 innings.

And had an ERA of 4.24. High Ks and high walks make your profile closer to being a reliever than getting a top-100 prospect in return in trade. Guys without options who can't throw strikes but strike people out because their stuff is good but they can't control it almost always end up as relievers. Could be a very good one, but he's much closer to becoming a reliever than some front of the rotation starter. I don't think the Twins should add prospects to Polanco to get a reliever.

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, laloesch said:

yes, a typo and should have been spelled WALKER Jenkins, (strike me down with lightning for a spelling error lol).  Anyhow, I only mentioned Cabrera per the earlier poster's point that he is a starting pitcher that the Marlins CONTROL through 2028 and worth pursuing.  Options were not brought up.  The prize is Luzardo though, I agree. 

And I don't agree that Cabrera can't throw strikes. In 2023 he struck out 118 batters in 99.2 innings.  If (and I state if) the Twins flipped Polanco for Cabrera in a trade (it would take more than that), I'd take that in a heartbeat and RUN. 

I don't want Cabrera in any capacity.

And as for Polanco, no one is suggesting that he'd get a top end pitcher alone. Top prospect(s) and/or another young player would need to be going with him.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I'll just add, I would be open to Cabrera if his medicals check out. I know walks have been an issue with him, but I also believe that the infrastructure and coaching here could work with him and his stuff to get it more under control. Or at least, if they were to pull off a deal with Cabrera coming back, that's what the plan would have to be right?

[tony&rodney]

Miami has had good success at developing pitchers. I'm not sure another organization can do better, but a change of scenery helps at times. In my initial plans In my initial thinking back in October, I wanted to trade for Edward Cabrera and put him in the bullpen. 

Lee will never be traded for Cabrera. Even a Polanco - Cabrera trade is a little iffy. I think the Twins want a pitcher who is more predictable and that means tough trades. Lee - Luzardo probably works if the Twins include a guy like Alcala or Woods Richardson. The Twins seem likely to go with the guys they have right now. The scenarios for trades are all pretty complicated and may leave the team short on depth.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'll just add, I would be open to Cabrera if his medicals check out. I know walks have been an issue with him, but I also believe that the infrastructure and coaching here could work with him and his stuff to get it more under control. Or at least, if they were to pull off a deal with Cabrera coming back, that's what the plan would have to be right?

I think the Twins infrastructure and coaching are better equipped to help with guys with "stuff" concerns over guys with control concerns. It's been their MO so far to chase guys with good control (in the draft and trades) and tweak their stuff (and pitch mix) to get more out of them. It's what Cleveland does, too. Hoping to get his stuff more under control would absolutely have to be the plan if they traded for Cabrera, but I don't see him as a likely target of theirs as he really doesn't fit their mold.

[Cory Engelhardt]

23 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think the Twins infrastructure and coaching are better equipped to help with guys with "stuff" concerns over guys with control concerns. It's been their MO so far to chase guys with good control (in the draft and trades) and tweak their stuff (and pitch mix) to get more out of them. It's what Cleveland does, too. Hoping to get his stuff more under control would absolutely have to be the plan if they traded for Cabrera, but I don't see him as a likely target of theirs as he really doesn't fit their mold.

Agreed. Their mold has been guys with MORE experience with a year (or more likely 2) remaining in arbitration.

 

[TopGunn#22]

Twins

NAME	POSITION	SURPLUS
Luis Castillo	SP	22.7

Total Value:

22.70

Mariners

NAME	POSITION	SURPLUS
Trevor Larnach	OF	3.6
Griffin Jax	RP	14.4
Jorge Polanco	2B	9.4

Total Value:

27.40

[TopGunn#22]

I believe Castillo should be the target from the Mariners.  I disagree with the website that had a couple Mariners EACH having a better WAR than Polanco.  Jorge is a solid bat and Ryan Bliss isn't this future All Star ready to step in at 2B.  The Mariners are HURTING for offense and they have GAPING holes at 3B and 2B.  Larnach returns to the Great Northwest to provide LH pop in a corner outfield and Jax is a key addition to the Mariner bullpen.

In a year when the Twins are projecting a payroll of $120-$125 million, Castillo isn't cheap, but he provides cost-certainty and would vault to #1 in our rotation.  I'd love to have a playoff rotation headed by Castillo and Lopez.  It's rated a slight overpay for the Twins. That's Fine.  Seattle gets to further trim payroll and add a couple bats to their lineup. 

The Twins can replace Jax with a younger pitcher, possibly Varland for 2024 with the addition of Castillo to the top of our rotation.  This is the only way Polanco is involved in bringing a good SP to the Twins.  He needs to be a piece.  Not the centerpiece.   

It's interesting though, the Mariners have been linked to Blake Snell because he's a Seattle native and just today, MLB Network said they were "in" on Dylan Cease in a possible trade.  One (Snell) would cost more than Castillo in payroll.  The other (Cease) would be quite costly in prospects.  We are in the season of WILD rumors.  It's hard to believe anything you hear.      

[laloesch]

7 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't want Cabrera in any capacity.

And as for Polanco, no one is suggesting that he'd get a top end pitcher alone. Top prospect(s) and/or another young player would need to be going with him.

I never suggested it either, lol.  I would take a flyer on Cabrera for the right price.  He’s had control issues to say the least but he’s got raw velocity and can strike guys out at a decent clip it’s just the walks that are brutal.

[AlwaysinModeration]

47 minutes ago, laloesch said:

I never suggested it either, lol.  I would take a flyer on Cabrera for the right price.  He’s had control issues to say the least but he’s got raw velocity and can strike guys out at a decent clip it’s just the walks that are brutal.

I think Manoah has more upside than Cabrera and would be my target.

[AlwaysinModeration]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I believe Castillo should be the target from the Mariners….In a year when the Twins are projecting a payroll of $120-$125 million, Castillo isn't cheap, but he provides cost-certainty and would vault to #1 in our rotation.  I'd love to have a playoff rotation headed by Castillo and Lopez. 

I agree, he would be a great addition to the rotation. But I just cannot see this FO trading for a player that is under contract for four years and $85mm.  

[TopGunn#22]

The idea of a Manoah for Polanco trade is possible and sensible.  Both teams are taking a risk.  Will Polanco stay healthy (or at least reasonably healthy)?  Because if he does, he will produce at a level that the Blue Jays would be happy with.  And it's a risk for the Blue Jays to give up a 25 year old pitcher who showed some real promise.

The Twins are risking depth and a solid switch-hitting bat in their lineup who is VERY affordable at $10 million for 2024 and affords a team option for 2025.  If 2024 goes well, it's an easy decision to pick up that option.  If not, you have an easy out and move on.  Plus, the Twins are risking which Manoah they get.  The 2021-2022 version who is All Star caliber or the atrocious 2023 version that couldn't even figure it out in the minors?

To me, the Blue Jays are risking a little more than the Twins because of Manoah's youth and potential.  So I would say a straight one-for-one deal wouldn't be enough.  The Twins will have to overpay somewhat.

Twins

NAME	POSITION	SURPLUS
Alek Manoah	SP	11.8

Total Value:

11.80

Blue Jays

NAME	POSITION	SURPLUS
Jorge Polanco	2B	9.4
Josh Winder	LRP	3.9

Total Value:

13.30

 This is a deal I think could work and I'd be willing to do if I was either team.  The Twins could swap Winder out with someone like Larnach (3.6) or Theilbar (3.6) and I wouldn't be surprised if discussions revolved around Polanco and something of a similar value to Larnach-Winder-Theilbar.  In my opinion, this is the only type of deal where Polanco IS the primary piece being moved for someone who could be a part of our rotation.

But Manoah is NOT the #2 guy in the rotation.  At this stage, he's no better than #5 or #6.  He has the potential to be #3 or #2, but that's if he becomes the 2021-2022 version of himself again, and that is the top end of hopeful expectation.  He may never approach that level of success again.  

[harmony55]

12 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Twins

NAME	POSITION	SURPLUS
Luis Castillo	SP	22.7

Total Value:

22.70

Mariners

NAME	POSITION	SURPLUS
Trevor Larnach	OF	3.6
Griffin Jax	RP	14.4
Jorge Polanco	2B	9.4

Total Value:

27.40

Seattle is unlikely to trade its ace for a declining 30-year-old infielder and an outfielder with a career strikeout rate of 33.6 percent. With a crowded Mariner bullpen, Griffin Jax does not move the needle.

As the free agent contracts come in for Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Shota Imanaga, the trade value of Castillo should only rise. Baseball Trade Values has already made a recent upward adjustment in the righthander's value.

[TopGunn#22]

Yeah, Castillo would be a tremendous addition and probably wouldn't require a Brooks Lee or Julien price tag.  This is why the team's self imposed budget cut is problematic following a division championship and their first playoff wins in almost two decades. 

Castillo is a perfect addition, IF you're willing to take on the salary.  If you're already saving $10 million by moving Polanco, that makes a Castillo acquisition more affordable.  Seattle doesn't need to include a bunch of cash in the trade (like Boston did with the $17 million to the Braves for Chris Sale).  The Mariners move $22 million off their books and take on about $13-$14 million from the Twins.

It's also disappointing that it seems like the Twins have no interest (at least as I write this today) in looking at really good pitchers like Sandy Alcantara and Brandon Woodruff.  These are guys that normally wouldn't be attainable but are available because they are going to miss 2024 do to injuries.  Woodruff, as a free agent, would require a 2-year minimum contract in which you would pay him to rehab for all of 2024 and then pay him a relatively expensive one-year deal for 2025. 

To me, Alcantara is a very attractive option if you have the patience to wait for the reward.  He's going to miss 2024 with Tommy John.  He's got a contract that will pay him for the next 3 seasons (2025-2027) that would be extremely affordable given the current market.  You would have to pay him $9 million to rehab in 2024.  He would then be paid $17 million per season for 2025 & 2026.  Finally, there is a Club Option of $21 million for 2027.

If it was up to me, I'd offer Polanco straight up for Alcantara right NOW.  The Twins gain $2 million of salary relief in the one-for-one swap but get nothing out of Alcantara for 2024.  But for the next 2 seasons they get a former Cy Young Award winner who would be our #1 at $17 million per season.  And if 2025 & 2026 works out well for Alcantara and the Twins, not only do the Twins pick up his 2027 option at a bargain $21 (compared to CURRENT market values-imagine how affordable $21 million would be 4 years from now).  They could even negotiate an extension.  

Yes, you'd have nothing to show for it in 2024.  That would hurt with a team that we expect should be able to defend their division crown.  But it would be a brilliant move for the future.  Julien is already Twin.  Brooks Lee will be one this year.  Farmer, if kept is a better defensive player than Polanco and he's a RH hitter.  Depth is nice.  But the Twins can survive 2024 without Polanco.  To add a pitcher of Alcantara's talent at the cost of Polanco would be tremendous.  Could the Twins exhibit the patience to make it happen?  

It brings me back to my youth when the Twins made a blockbuster trade with the Cleveland Guardians and acquired one of my favorite pitchers, Luis Tiant, following the 1969 season.  The Twins had just won the very first American League Western Division Crown and they dealt Dean Chance, Bob Miller, Craig Nettles and Ted Uhlaender to the tribe for Tiant and Stan Williams.  Williams would have an outstanding 1970 for the Twins but Tiant battled various arm issues to a 7-3 record with a 3.60 ERA.  Finally, a broken wrist ended his season.  But the Twins couldn't be patient enough to let him get healthy and on March 31st prior to the beginning of the 1971 season, the Twins released him.  The Red Sox picked Tiant up and stuck with him through a lousy 1971 season.  But in 1972, Tiant went 15-6 with a sparkling 1.91 ERA and went on to be quite a pitcher for the Red Sox in the mid 1970's.

Would the Twins have the patience and long range thinking to acquire Sandy Alcantara?  

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

This bleacher report article poses a trade of Kepler and Polanco (and cash, covering about half of their combined salary) to Seattle for Bryan Woo.

I don't know that I see that trade happening, as I would imagine Seattle could ask for more. But I am a huge fan of Woo. 

They also list 7 other trades that could happen. What do you guys think?

 

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10103195-realistic-mlb-trades-that-could-happen-before-2024-spring-training

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Would the Twins have the patience and long range thinking to acquire Sandy Alcantara?  

I have to imagine if the Marlins decide to trade Alcanatara that the bidding will exceed the excess value of Jorge Polanco.

[harmony55]

6 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

This bleacher report article poses a trade of Kepler and Polanco (and cash, covering about half of their combined salary) to Seattle for Bryan Woo.

I don't know that I see that trade happening, as I would imagine Seattle could ask for more. But I am a huge fan of Woo. 

They also list 7 other trades that could happen. What do you guys think?

 

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10103195-realistic-mlb-trades-that-could-happen-before-2024-spring-training

Seattle likely has interest in Max Kepler but would prefer its in-house options at second base and third base over Jorge Polanco.

The Mariners are unlikely to deplete their pitching depth by trading Bryan Woo unless another starter is coming in via trade or a free agent signing.

[AlwaysinModeration]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I am a huge fan of Woo. 

Woot.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, harmony55 said:

Seattle likely has interest in Max Kepler but would prefer its in-house options at second base and third base over Jorge Polanco.

The Mariners are unlikely to deplete their pitching depth by trading Bryan Woo unless another starter is coming in via trade or a free agent signing.

I mean, maybe you are right. I was just the messenger in terms of sharing the article :)

[Cris E]

When the market heats up enough to increase the values of studs like Castillo and Alcanterra you know the Twins are not the only ones who will notice. There will be other great offers made for those stars that'll burn the eyebrows off any MN front office guy that hears them.

It's fun to think our guys might be making one or two of those offers, and moving good players in recent years like Arreaz or the hitters CIN received gives some hope, but honestly my expectations are around grabbing a second tier guy in the Miller/Woo/Cabrera vein. Very good, very useful, but not a #1.

EDIT: For the record I could see an overpay like Lee, Polanco and a major league ready pitcher like Varland/SWR for Luzardo.  It seems like too much and not enough for both sides, so somehow fair.

 

[DocBauer]

19 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

I agree, he would be a great addition to the rotation. But I just cannot see this FO trading for a player that is under contract for four years and $85mm.  

I'm going to disagree with you somewhat here. It's $21M per for 4yrs. Basic math has Polanco's salary of $10M gone, thus the adjusted total is only an add of $11M. Yes, he's owed 3 more years, I understand that, but you've still cut that $10M from the payroll with the move of Polanco and haven't replaced it with someone else. Thus, the net increase is only $11M. And the Twins are willing to pay a top arm like Lopez, starting next season, in that $20M-ish range. In fact, Castillo's deal is a bit of a bargain, IMO.

My issue is that I believe Castillo has a no trade clause. And if that's true, he and his agent are going to want a bump in pay or extension to agree to the move, more than likely. THAT'S where this gets expensive beyond what I think the Twins would be willing to do or be comfortable with.

[AlwaysinModeration]

15 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I'm going to disagree with you somewhat here. It's $21M per for 4yrs. Basic math has Polanco's salary of $10M gone, thus the adjusted total is only an add of $11M. Yes, he's owed 3 more years, I understand that, but you've still cut that $10M from the payroll with the move of Polanco and haven't replaced it with someone else. Thus, the net increase is only $11M. And the Twins are willing to pay a top arm like Lopez, starting next season, in that $20M-ish range. In fact, Castillo's deal is a bit of a bargain, IMO.

My issue is that I believe Castillo has a no trade clause. And if that's true, he and his agent are going to want a bump in pay or extension to agree to the move, more than likely. THAT'S where this gets expensive beyond what I think the Twins would be willing to do or be comfortable with.

Excellent point, and Polanco has a $12mm option.  So Castillo would cost ~ $10mm this year and next year, then $21mm each of 26-27. That does change the math quite a bit and may mean he would be within the realm of possibility. He would cost more than Polanco, though, that’s for sure.

[DJL44]

Caballero is gone now. Rojas and Urias can platoon at 3B. DeSclafini in the Mariner rotation adds even more pitching depth. 2B is wide open for Polanco in Seattle.