The Twins Should Not Trade Max Kepler

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I just, imagine writing this article any time from like 2020 through about June of 2023. 
I know he was great the 2nd half of 2023, but I’m almost in the camp of, be grateful he was good so he actually has trade value now. 97% of us wanted him dfa’d mid season, so that he has value now isn’t a bad thing

Understand the concept on value but I saw last week that he was one of 4 guys (Kepler, Cory Seager, & 2 others) after the All-Star break that hit .300 or better and had 30 extra base hits. With his steady defense, Twins absolutely have to see if this continues offensive level or even 85% of it would be nice! He had a 121 OPS plus for the season and his first 10-11 weeks were brutal - he was under .200 BA at one point. He then had sustained success over the last 14 weeks.

[SteveLV]

What do people think are the chances Kepler justifies a QO after the 2024 season?  I put it at about 20%. That, of course, would generate a comp pick like the Twins will receive for Gray's signing.

If he hits like he did that back end of 2023, he certainly will justify the QO.

I don't see anyone to easily replace him on the current roster.  I agree with comments above that we have more infield depth than OF depth, and that Polanco (with an extra year of team control, too), would appear to be the more logical trade assett.

[Hunter McCall]

Just now, JD-TWINS said:

Understand the concept on value but I saw last week that he was one of 4 guys (Kepler, Cory Seager, & 2 others) after the All-Star break that hit .300 or better and had 30 extra base hits. With his steady defense, Twins absolutely have to see if this continues offensive level or even 85% of it would be nice! He had a 121 OPS plus for the season and his first 10-11 weeks were brutal - he was under .200 BA at one point. He then had sustained success over the last 14 weeks.

The Twins simply will not be able to fill the void left by Max Kepler if he is traded. Unless they have an offer that improves another area of need significantly, they should keep Kepler around. You're absolutely right.

[mnfireman]

Now that Jung Hoo Lee signed with the Giants, I would imagine that Bellinger signs soon. If he doesn't sign with Seattle, I imagine they would open to trading for Kepler. If the pieces are right, the Twins take the trade. Trading him just to free up $$$ is probably not smart, as stated on here, because the other options don't appear to be able to match his production.

[Matthew Trueblood]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I just, imagine writing this article any time from like 2020 through about June of 2023. 
I know he was great the 2nd half of 2023, but I’m almost in the camp of, be grateful he was good so he actually has trade value now. 97% of us wanted him dfa’d mid season, so that he has value now isn’t a bad thing

This is a very reasonable point, and I do keep circling back to it in my own head. I was never quite in the DFA Kepler camp anyway, but the thing that grabs me is what Hunter laid out at the end: he made material changes to find his second-half success. Now, unfortunately, Kepler has made successful adjustments in the past, and then just reverted the following year or whatever. So you could deputize this latest round into an argument for trading him, because other teams will buy into his breakout, whereas maybe we all know better. But it's also an argument for the wait-and-see approach, especially since replacing him would either come at a steep financial cost or involve a whole lot of its own risks.

[Hunter McCall]

1 minute ago, SteveLV said:

What do people think are the chances Kepler justifies a QO after the 2024 season?  I put it at about 20%. That, of course, would generate a comp pick like the Twins will receive for Gray's signing.

If he hits like he did that back end of 2023, he certainly will justify the QO.

I don't see anyone to easily replace him on the current roster.  I agree with comments above that we have more infield depth than OF depth, and that Polanco (with an extra year of team control, too), would appear to be the more logical trade assett.

I would put it at around 30%. You're right, if he plays at the level he did in the second half of the season he will absolutely earn it. His metrics back up what he did and provide hope for sustainability.

[JD-TWINS]

I am not trying to knit-pick here, I realize the discussion about trading for Seattle pitching is just an example, principally due to their potential excess of good arms. It’s potentially a great add to our staff. However, I don’t like sending one or two solid starters (every day guys, i.e. Polanco & Kepler) to a League/Playoff rival. Maybe paranoid? I’d like to try to move proven veterans to the NL as a first course of action.

[Hunter McCall]

5 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Now that Jung Hoo Lee signed with the Giants, I would imagine that Bellinger signs soon. If he doesn't sign with Seattle, I imagine they would open to trading for Kepler. If the pieces are right, the Twins take the trade. Trading him just to free up $$$ is probably not smart, as stated on here, because the other options don't appear to be able to match his production.

Agree, if the Mariners are willing to unload Logan Gilbert or Bryan Woo or someone else who would bring massive improvements to the starting rotation, then yes you absolutely should trade him. If it's a quick salary dump, there are better options than Kepler.

[Hunter McCall]

7 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

This is a very reasonable point, and I do keep circling back to it in my own head. I was never quite in the DFA Kepler camp anyway, but the thing that grabs me is what Hunter laid out at the end: he made material changes to find his second-half success. Now, unfortunately, Kepler has made successful adjustments in the past, and then just reverted the following year or whatever. So you could deputize this latest round into an argument for trading him, because other teams will buy into his breakout, whereas maybe we all know better. But it's also an argument for the wait-and-see approach, especially since replacing him would either come at a steep financial cost or involve a whole lot of its own risks.

Another thought that I've had is, what if it took the lineup as a whole time to just mesh with David Popkins and his hitting philosophies. If you look at the second half numbers compared to the first half numbers, Kepler wasn't the only Twin that appeared to rise from the dead. I'm excited to see how the lineup looks to start the year.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Hunter McCall said:

But you won't be able to hide Larnach at the plate and moving Kirilloff creates a void at first base. This is why, unless the return provides substantial help for the 2024 team, I think they should stick with Kepler.

Simple move Julien back to 1B where he should have been all along with Miranda & Farmer as our RH options. Larnach was our leading slugger in the 1st half of '23, With Wallner & Kiriloff at RF will give him plenty of time for Larnach to find himself if we ever need him as Kepler found himself the 2nd half. 

[Hunter McCall]

4 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Simple move Julien back to 1st where he should have been all along.

Or.... you could keep Kepler

[Hunter McCall]

15 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I am not trying to knit-pick here, I realize the discussion about trading for Seattle pitching is just an example, principally due to their potential excess of good arms. It’s potentially a great add to our staff. However, I don’t like sending one or two solid starters (every day guys, i.e. Polanco & Kepler) to a League/Playoff rival. Maybe paranoid? I’d like to try to move proven veterans to the NL as a first course of action.

I understand the thought, but I'm always in the camp of "How can we improve OUR team". If a deal comes along that makes the Twins better and in involves trading Kepler and Polanco (again, you would need to find a backup plan for corner outfielder) I think you do it. Now, if it was a division rival, then I think there's more reason for pause, but the Twins aren't necessarily battling the Mariners for a playoff spot unless it's the wildcard spot or for seeding purposes. So long story a little longer, I think exploring the Mariners arms is a good idea personally.

[Doctor Gast]

1 minute ago, Hunter McCall said:

Or.... you could keep Kepler

To restate, I don't mind keeping Kepler, Polanco, Vazquez & Farmer but if we have to trade someone. Kepler is the most expendable.

[roger]

Could not agree more, Hunter.

Would like to remind everyone that Wallner has limited big league experience.  And didn't he struggle the last week or so of the season and in the playoffs?  If they are planning on his manning a corner outfield spot, it better be written into the lineup in pencil.

[JD-TWINS]

1 minute ago, Hunter McCall said:

I understand the thought, but I'm always in the camp of "How can we improve OUR team". If a deal comes along that makes the Twins better and in involves trading Kepler and Polanco (again, you would need to find a backup plan for corner outfielder) I think you do it. Now, if it was a division rival, then I think there's more reason for pause, but the Twins aren't necessarily battling the Mariners for a playoff spot unless it's the wildcard spot or for seeding purposes. So long story a little longer, I think exploring the Mariners arms is a good idea personally.

Both wildcard & the head to head competition once the playoffs start - those are my concerns. ……..The Vikings don’t want to improve the Cowboys at almost any cost - right? Paranoid? 

[Hunter McCall]

Just now, Doctor Gast said:

To restate, I don't mind keeping Kepler, Polanco, Vazquez & Farmer but if we have to trade someone. Kepler is the most expendable.

I would say Kepler is the least expendable. They have depth everywhere else. They don't have starting caliber depth at corner outfield. Trevor Larnach has not shown an ability to hit at the major league level. He really struggles with offspeed pitches. I outlined it above. He was okay for the first month of 2023 but was quickly exposed. The Twins wouldn't have sent him to St. Paul and not even include him on the playoff roster if they thought he was a viable everyday option at this point in his career. He's just not.

[Muppet]

Right now is the only time they will be able to get anything remotely resembling value for Kepler. If they need an emergency RF in the event that Larnach hits under .200, they can go ahead and resign Jake Cave. It's not that big of a drop off, especially if Buxton is able to manage CF this year and RF only needs to cover a sliver of the OF. 

[rv78]

Not sure why there is so much love for Kepler. He's a part-time hitter playing full-time. Take away his 2019 season and his 2nd half 2023 season and the only worth he's provided is defense. I guess he looks good because he plays next to Buxton who's even more than a part-time hitter, he's a part-time player completely. Now add in LF and the Twins haven't had anyone there that could hit since Eddie left. That's a whole lot of nothing from your outfield for too long already. Gee, I wonder why this team, at times, struggles to score runs. I'd start the year with Wallner, Castro and Larnach in the outfield and give Martin or Gordon the 4th OF spot. The past 3 years has proven the guys they've went with aren't that good if they can even play. Time to try something different and let the young guys get the chance, to learn from their mistakes, and actually see if they are any good, especially if the FO doesn't sign a #2 Starter to replace Gray.

[mnfireman]

22 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I am not trying to knit-pick here, I realize the discussion about trading for Seattle pitching is just an example, principally due to their potential excess of good arms. It’s potentially a great add to our staff. However, I don’t like sending one or two solid starters (every day guys, i.e. Polanco & Kepler) to a League/Playoff rival. Maybe paranoid? I’d like to try to move proven veterans to the NL as a first course of action.

You handcuff yourself too much if you eliminate half of your possible trade partners.

[Hunter McCall]

1 minute ago, JD-TWINS said:

Both wildcard & the head to head competition once the playoffs start - those are my concerns. ……..The Vikings don’t want to improve the Cowboys at almost any cost - right? Paranoid? 

I don't want to call you paranoid because I hear where you're coming from. I just also think you have to focus on improving your own team. Just as no player should be untouchable for the right price, I don't think any team should be untouchable if the price is right.

[mnfireman]

4 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

To restate, I don't mind keeping Kepler, Polanco, Vazquez & Farmer but if we have to trade someone. Kepler is the most expendable.

I disagree. Farmer is the most expendable, but also probably returns the least value. Polanco is more expendable than Kepler due to the infield depth both at the MLB level and higher minor leagues, and probably brings the best overall return.

[Hunter McCall]

4 minutes ago, roger said:

Could not agree more, Hunter.

Would like to remind everyone that Wallner has limited big league experience.  And didn't he struggle the last week or so of the season and in the playoffs?  If they are planning on his manning a corner outfield spot, it better be written into the lineup in pencil.

Appreciate your thoughts! It would be a bad move in my opinion to turn the reigns over to Wallner and Larnach as the everyday corners. I think Wallner is going to be good, strike out a ton but good, and I'm not sure about Larnach. Even when Kepler isn't hitting well, he's provided value to the Twins. They can't afford to lose his production unless they are improving somewhere else.

[Hunter McCall]

4 minutes ago, Muppet said:

Right now is the only time they will be able to get anything remotely resembling value for Kepler. If they need an emergency RF in the event that Larnach hits under .200, they can go ahead and resign Jake Cave. It's not that big of a drop off, especially if Buxton is able to manage CF this year and RF only needs to cover a sliver of the OF. 

Oh God please don't suggest Jake Cave... Anybody but Jake Cave.

I know the value is higher than it has been, but the return still won't be good enough to offset losing Kepler in my opinion. Unless he's involved in a bigger package for a bigger return I just don't think it makes sense.

[Doctor Gast]

I just hope reason will win out.

[Hunter McCall]

6 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Not sure why there is so much love for Kepler. He's a part-time hitter playing full-time. Take away his 2019 season and his 2nd half 2023 season and the only worth he's provided is defense. I guess he looks good because he plays next to Buxton who's even more than a part-time hitter, he's a part-time player completely. Now add in LF and the Twins haven't had anyone there that could hit since Eddie left. That's a whole lot of nothing from your outfield for too long already. Gee, I wonder why this team, at times, struggles to score runs. I'd start the year with Wallner, Castro and Larnach in the outfield and give Martin or Gordon the 4th OF spot. The past 3 years has proven the guys they've went with aren't that good if they can even play. Time to try something different and let the young guys get the chance, to learn from their mistakes, and actually see if they are any good, especially if the FO doesn't sign a #2 Starter to replace Gray.

I find it mildly ironic that you claim the Twins haven't gotten production out of their outfield and then suggest the Twins should start Matt Wallner, Willi Castro, and Trevor Larnach as their three outfielders... That's a Guardian esque outfield.

[Otaknam]

The question with Kepler is whether he will sustain his production from the last half of 2023, or revert to his struggles of the previous couple of seasons. With questions about Buxton’s health always an issue, despite his recent surgery and apparent recovery, it does make sense to keep Kepler and his strong defense in right field. But if a Kepler trade package nets a frontline starter I think they will do it, and find a right fielder from the current roster or a fill in for one year. 

[Hunter McCall]

5 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

I disagree. Farmer is the most expendable, but also probably returns the least value. Polanco is more expendable than Kepler due to the infield depth both at the MLB level and higher minor leagues, and probably brings the best overall return.

This is exactly right. I love Polanco as much as anyone but he has the most value and the Twins have the depth to offset his loss. With Julien, Farmer, Castro, Martin, and Severino as all potential options to play second base, there's plenty of quality options to replace him. The same can't be said for Max Kepler.

[Hunter McCall]

2 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

The question with Kepler is whether he will sustain his production from the last half of 2023, or revert to his struggles of the previous couple of seasons. With questions about Buxton’s health always an issue, despite his recent surgery and apparent recovery, it does make sense to keep Kepler and his strong defense in right field. But if a Kepler trade package nets a frontline starter I think they will do it, and find a right fielder from the current roster or a fill in for one year. 

Agree with this. Thank you for sharing!

[mnfireman]

14 minutes ago, roger said:

Could not agree more, Hunter.

Would like to remind everyone that Wallner has limited big league experience.  And didn't he struggle the last week or so of the season and in the playoffs?  If they are planning on his manning a corner outfield spot, it better be written into the lineup in pencil.

Wallner struggled in the play-offs, but slashed .354/.456/.646 (1.102 OPS) with 3 HR, 12 RBI and 16/8 K/BB ratio over his last 17 games.

He has also shown a willingness to work on his weaknesses, as he became an acceptable defender last season and was constantly working on fixing his swing after the league started exposing a weak spot. Kind of the player a team needs...

[MMMordabito]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

 97% of us wanted him dfa’d mid season, so that he has value now isn’t a bad thing

97% (a stretch in reality) of TD readers is very small percentage of Twins fans.