Joe Mauer Hall of Fame Vote Watch

[Brock Beauchamp]

This hasn't been updated in awhile. 100 ballots now in for 28% of the total votes.

Adrián Beltré	98.1%
Joe Mauer	83.2%
Todd Helton	83.2%
Billy Wagner	80.4%

[DJL44]

If you look at the trends from year-to-year Helton has gained 0 votes among the same group of voters from last year. Wagner is +5, Beltran +9 and Sheffield +7.  Helton has to pick up 11 votes somewhere (he's doing well among 1st time voters and also picked up one who didn't vote in 2023) and Wagner has to pick up 22 more votes to get elected (same as Helton among 1st timers).

Last year's votes get split into 3 buckets - public before the election (206), public after the election (115) and private (68) ballots. Helton was 78.6% in public before, 67% in public after and 61.8% in private. Wagner was 72.3% in public before, 69.6% in public after and 52.9% in private. If Wagner is at or below 77% after 200 public ballots he probably won't make it. If Helton is still at 83% after 200 ballots he will have added enough votes just from public ballots to make it.

I feel like Mauer will do fairly well among those who don't announce publicly. Torii Hunter and Omar Vizquel were two players who did better on private ballots than on public ballots and neither one has a good case based on analytics.

[nicksaviking]

On 12/31/2023 at 3:19 PM, DJL44 said:

We can't say with any confidence that Mauer will finish ahead of Helton in the voting but the odds are favorable that he will finish above 75%. It's now more likely than not that Mauer gets elected this year. If we assumed voting was random the 95% confidence interval is +/- 7% (expect his final total to be between 76% and 90%). There is evidence that people who publicly announce vote for more candidates than those who don't so there is still a chance he falls just short. Someone with more stats background than me could tell you the exact chances.

He's a lock to get elected to the Hall of Fame in one of the next 3 years even if he falls short in 2024.

Yeah, most of the people who won't cast any votes, or minimal votes won't release their ballots.

Still, my presumption that Mauer would be waiting a few years and his percentage would anger Twins fans looks to be way off the mark.

[AlwaysinModeration]

17 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, most of the people who won't cast any votes, or minimal votes won't release their ballots.

Last year there were 20 voters who either voted for one person (12) or zero (8).  So far this year there is only one such voter.

Meanwhile, Helton has edged ahead of Mauer, 91 to 90 out of 109 votes, while Wagner is over 80%.

[Trov]

On 12/27/2023 at 9:29 AM, tony&rodney said:

Recently I was reading an article and comments comparing Mauer and a few other players, all of whom played in the field. It was actually shocking to read words making a direct comparison in games and years played. I would humbly submit that anyone who does this has no idea of the demands of catching. If you ever played both ends of a nine inning doubleheader you still have not come close to experiencing the physicality of catching nine innings. Having thrown nine innings many times I will suggest this comes close but is still different because it is more a case of the effects on the arm which needs a few days off. I never pitched back to back nine inning games in the same day but had an idiot coach in Babe Ruth League throw me on back to back days a couple of times for seven innings. Catching is easily twice the work and more of any other position and the writers who fail to consider this show little knowledge of the game.

I'm not all crazy about who does and who does not get into the Baseball Hall of Fame but the ignorance and willful incompetence of many of these writers (those who have a vote) is rather appalling, as someone else already suggested. Why is baseball so poorly run? 

I think the good baseball minds make the difference, and they try to compare catchers to each other, but they still require catchers be high offense guys.  In part, top defense catchers are hard to really quantify and the eyes do not go wow, like when Ozzie Smith played SS.  He got in on his defense, because you could see the plays he made.  A top defending catcher you will not say wow did you see that, all to often.  

In regards to the wear on the body, it gets brought up, but yeah many do not even realize.  I remember being asked to fill in as catcher just for a practice and my knees were killing me.  Sure, I was not taught the right way to crouch, or worked on that, but I could only imagine.  Also, the catcher makes more throws than any player on the field.  Yes, only a few are at full strength so not as much wear on arm like a pitcher, but still the motion will be tiring.  He also takes pitches all over his body like no other.  So yes, most catchers go to plate, bruised up and sore but still expected to produce at a high level of offense. It is crazy. 

[Streif Lightning]

I haven't followed one of these in a long time. Anyone know why it's taking so long for the votes to come in? I don't ever remember this process taking weeks but maybe I'm misremembering

[lecroy24fan]

3 hours ago, Streif Lightning said:

I haven't followed one of these in a long time. Anyone know why it's taking so long for the votes to come in? I don't ever remember this process taking weeks but maybe I'm misremembering

It's like this every year. It will pick up in about a week.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

Did we win yet?

[Streif Lightning]

On 1/5/2024 at 2:22 AM, lecroy24fan said:

It's like this every year. It will pick up in about a week.

They need to fix that, it's annoying. They should have a vote all at once, seems ridiculous to let them just trickle in at their leisure

[lecroy24fan]

55 minutes ago, Streif Lightning said:

They need to fix that, it's annoying. They should have a vote all at once, seems ridiculous to let them just trickle in at their leisure

This is the voters choosing to make their ballots public. The official release is the day of the announcement. Some choose not to announce their ballot until after the final announcement, and I'm okay with that. I believe we all have a right to criticize someone's votes if we feel it's deserved.

[Streif Lightning]

11 hours ago, lecroy24fan said:

This is the voters choosing to make their ballots public. The official release is the day of the announcement. Some choose not to announce their ballot until after the final announcement, and I'm okay with that. I believe we all have a right to criticize someone's votes if we feel it's deserved.

Ok, that makes more sense. I was thinking that other voter's ballots could influence other ones. So the vote is already done and we just need the announcement at this point, that's better

[Brock Beauchamp]

17 hours ago, Streif Lightning said:

They need to fix that, it's annoying. They should have a vote all at once, seems ridiculous to let them just trickle in at their leisure

They did vote all at once, the votes had to be in before New Year's Day, I believe (or somewhere close to that time). Writers are only deciding whether to make their votes public right now, all votes have been cast for a week.

[Jerr]

7 hours ago, Streif Lightning said:

Ok, that makes more sense. I was thinking that other voter's ballots could influence other ones. So the vote is already done and we just need the announcement at this point, that's better

I was thinking the same thing and thanks to TwinDaily, I learned something.

[AlwaysinModeration]

7 hours ago, Streif Lightning said:

I was thinking that other voter's ballots could influence other ones.

The rules of the election state that the “elector shall sign and return the completed ballot no later than December 31.”  By December 26 there were already 50 ballots made public on the tracker.  So the late-voting electors absolutely can look at the early trends before they cast their vote. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

The rules of the election state that the “elector shall sign and return the completed ballot no later than December 31.”  By December 26 there were already 50 ballots made public on the tracker.  So the late-voting electors absolutely can look at the early trends before they cast their vote. 

People can make their opinions known about who should be in the Hall of Fame 24/7/365.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Through 125 votes, which is an estimated 32.6% of the expected vote totals:

Beltre, 123 votes, 98.4%
Helton, 103 votes, 82.4%
Mauer, 102 votes, 81.6%
Wagner, 100 votes, 80%
Sheffield, 95 votes, 76%

[2wins87]

On 1/7/2024 at 2:58 PM, AlwaysinModeration said:

Through 125 votes, which is an estimated 32.6% of the expected vote totals:

Beltre, 123 votes, 98.4%
Helton, 103 votes, 82.4%
Mauer, 102 votes, 81.6%
Wagner, 100 votes, 80%
Sheffield, 95 votes, 76%

Saw two more today, putting Mauer and Helton back into a tie at 104.

Helton has actually had a lot of trouble adding votes from returning voters, at +0 net from returning voters.  He has gotten 9/10 from first-time voters to Mauer's 7/10.

I thought Helton would get in this year after being so close last year, but I'm not sure he can pick up enough votes just from first-time voters, so he'll need to pick up some votes from returning voters at some point.  He is tracking ahead of where he was last year after 120 ballots though, so there are more potential pick-up opportunities among the votes that are yet to be revealed than those that already have been revealed.

At any rate, I still think if Mauer stays where he's been, around 81-82% on public ballots, it's hard to see him not getting to 75% overall.  If he dips below 80% before the final reveal it could be really close.  Seems to still be in good shape for now.

[D. Hocking]

On 1/7/2024 at 10:28 AM, Jerr said:

I was thinking the same thing and thanks to TwinDaily, I learned something.

I sometimes think about if TwinsDaily had been around when I was growing up, how much more knowledgeable and well-rounded I would have been.  I feel like my life would have turned out a lot differently.

[RpR]

2 minutes ago, D. Hocking said:

I sometimes think about if TwinsDaily had been around when I was growing up, how much more knowledgeable and well-rounded I would have been.  I feel like my life would have turned out a lot differently.

There used to be quite a few print rags that covered baseball (and football) fifty years ago.

Knowledge depended on ones willingness to spend a few dollars for information.

I got way back then , a weekly rag on the NFL. a huge amount of infornation.

[AlwaysinModeration]

On 1/8/2024 at 7:23 PM, D. Hocking said:

I sometimes think about if TwinsDaily had been around when I was growing up, how much more knowledgeable and well-rounded I would have been.  I feel like my life would have turned out a lot differently.

I don’t know, Denny—you had 2500 big league plate appearances, hit 25 dingers, and cleared $5mm in career earnings, I’d say you did alright!!

[AlwaysinModeration]

Back to the vote watch, Mauer has gone 11 for the last 11, up to 113 out of 136 votes for 83%.  He’s now two votes up on Helton, with 35% of the precincts reporting.  The longer he stays north of 80%, the better his chances get of induction later this year.

[DJL44]

I think Wagner will be back next year for his 10th time on the ballot. Still time to stop the writers before they make that mistake.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

On 1/4/2024 at 5:54 AM, AlwaysinModeration said:

Last year there were 20 voters who either voted for one person (12) or zero (8).  So far this year there is only one such voter.

Meanwhile, Helton has edged ahead of Mauer, 91 to 90 out of 109 votes, while Wagner is over 80%.

The small hall voters are generally the private later individuals.  

[D. Hocking]

1 hour ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

I don’t know, Denny—you had 2500 big league plate appearances, hit 25 dingers, and cleared $5mm in career earnings, I’d say you did alright!!

and the Twins did retire my number, and most importantly, I am a verified Twins Daily member.

I am pleasantly surprised at how the vote is going.

[AlwaysinModeration]

9 hours ago, D. Hocking said:

and the Twins did retire my number, and most importantly, I am a verified Twins Daily member.

I am pleasantly surprised at how the vote is going.

7! Does this mean you are going to Cooperstown?

[mnfireman]

I see our old friend Keith Law has made his vote public. He used 7 of 10, did not vote for Mauer, but did vote for Utley and ARoid.

Mauer is named on 122/146 (83.6%) ballots, 1 ahead of Helton.

[AlwaysinModeration]

150 votes are in:

Beltre 148, 98.7%
Mauer 126, 84%
Helton 125, 83.3%
Wagner 120, 80%
Sheffield 113, 75.7%

——————————
Andruw Jones 106, 70.7%
Beltran 102, 68%

 

[DJL44]

In other Twins news, this looks like it will be Torii Hunter's last season on the ballot as well. He's tracking to fall below 5%.

[kydoty]

Just booked air, car and hotel for Albany.  I’m confident at this point Mauer will get the votes so might as well get ahead of it before everyone else starts to book right after the announcement.

Never been to Cooperstown, so seeing a player whom I’ve watched virtually every at bat they took at the big league level get inducted is the perfect time to do it.  Going to bring my 71 year old mom, who got me into loving baseball and the Twins.  It will be a highlight of her life. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

20 hours ago, kydoty said:

Just booked air, car and hotel for Albany.  I’m confident at this point Mauer will get the votes so might as well get ahead of it before everyone else starts to book right after the announcement.

Never been to Cooperstown, so seeing a player whom I’ve watched virtually every at bat they took at the big league level get inducted is the perfect time to do it.  Going to bring my 71 year old mom, who got me into loving baseball and the Twins.  It will be a highlight of her life. 

Hope the weather is great for your trip.  I’ll be there a few weeks earlier when my 12-year old’s team goes for a tournament.  They have big tournaments every week in Cooperstown all summer.