The Twins Daily Table Setter: December 4, 2023

[Ted Schwerzler]

It’s incredibly nice of Major League Baseball to give us the second day (and the first full, real one) of the Winter Meetings for Day Two of the Table Setter.

Image courtesy of © Leon Halip-USA TODAY Sports

Although the Winter Meetings kicked off on Sunday, there wasn’t any substantial action. Minnesota has yet to make a major-league move this offseason, but there are some storylines worth checking into.

Hall of Fame Takes Focus
While Joe Mauer is the primary reason for Minnesota fans to concern themselves with the National Baseball Hall of Fame this cycle, it was during Night One of the Winter Meetings that former Detroit Tigers manager Jim Leyland found out he would be enshrined. Leyland managed 3,499 games during his career, and was a mainstay in the opposing dugout against Minnesota. He won a World Series with the Florida Marlins, and was named Manager of the Year on three separate occasions.

Although Leyland had enough votes to go in, fellow manager Lou Piniella came up just one shy. If you watched Ron Gardenhire get tossed by umpires over the years, it was Piniella who often came up as the gold standard for being given the heave-ho. Piniella also won a World Series and the same number of Manager of the Year awards.

When it comes to the player ballot, only eight have been added to the official tracker hosted by Ryan Thibodaux. Mauer has seen his name checked on five of them, with three coming through publicly revealed ballots. FanGraphs’s Jay Jaffe recently implored his fellow Baseball Writers Association of America members to do right by the Twins great.

Crew Makes it Official
Reported last week, Milwaukee Brewers top prospect Jackson Chourio’s eight-year extension became official on Sunday. That means he will be in center field on Opening Day, and it changes how they will construct their roster for 2024. Corbin Burnes has been a hot name to consider on the trade market, and if Minnesota is looking for options to replace Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, he’d be among the best out there.

You can check out Brewer Fanatic to see thoughts on how the Brewers will handle the rest of their offseason, but it stands to reason that they will want to hold serve with the rest of the NL Central. Cincinnati has already agreed to deals with Nick Martinez and former Twins reliever Emilio Pagan. The Cardinals became Minnesota South from a pitching perspective, inking Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Gray.

Kepler to the Emerald City
As the night grew late on Sunday, Jerry Dipoto continued his magic and worked a trade. With Jarred Kelenic headed to the Atlanta Braves for pitching help, the Seattle Mariners found themselves with a hole in the outfield. Jon Heyman opined that a salary dump might help to acquire Juan Soto, but Jon Morosi noted a fit in the form of Twins right fielder Max Kepler.

It's certainly possible that Minnesota could match up with the Mariners. Second baseman Jorge Polanco also fits there, and the Mariners have pitcher Logan Gilbert that could work as a Gray replacement. How the two teams hammer out any sort of swap remains to be seen, but it's at least worth noting that the puzzle pieces make sense. Maybe Falvey is able to push for a swap while the representatives are all in Nashville this week.

 

Is Ohtani Imminent?
There hasn’t been much confirmed reporting when it comes to Shohei Ohtani’s next team, but we could reach a conclusion sooner rather than later. The Winter Meetings would be a great stage for the biggest free agent to announce his decision, and it seems that we may see the $500 million mark blown out of the water.

It’s unfortunate that Minnesota isn’t among those being considered, but that was simply never going to be the case. Once Ohtani gets his deal done, though, it could open the logjam holding the market back. This is the week always circled for Hot Stove season, and starting it with a bang only to continue the momentum would be a blast.

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Last year Minnesota had already made trades for Kyle Farmer and Gio Urshela by this point. They didn’t sign Christian Vazquez or Joey Gallo until mid-December, but establishing some financial understanding soon may be beneficial with the television uncertainties. What are you hoping they accomplish in Nashville? Who got snubbed as Leyland got his props? And where will Ohtani end up? There's plenty to talk about, while we wait for the hard news to hit.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I certainly don't expect Logan Gilbert to be available in trade, so I don't know why his name is the one put out there when mentioning Kepler to Seattle. But these are certainly fun rumors to read about.

[terrydactyls]

11 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I certainly don't expect Logan Gilbert to be available in trade, so I don't know why his name is the one put out there when mentioning Kepler to Seattle. But these are certainly fun rumors to read about.

My guess (and that's all it is) is because, much like Miami last winter, Seattle has pitching prospects and needs at both RF and 2B.  Just a guess!  It would be a great trade if it happens.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Agreed!

[Blyleven2011]

There's lots to talk about but nothing significant has developed to get excited about  ...

I hope the FO  gets something accomplished this week to generate some excitement  because as our situation is now , we have taken a step backwards from our post season appearance ...

Let's go Twins  ...

Trader Jerry Dipoto is waiting ...

[Matthew Trueblood]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I certainly don't expect Logan Gilbert to be available in trade, so I don't know why his name is the one put out there when mentioning Kepler to Seattle. But these are certainly fun rumors to read about.

I do think there's a chance Gilbert will be available. It certainly wouldn't be for Kepler, unless he were a secondary piece behind an awfully impressive prospect, though. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Agreed 100%

[Jim wyllie]

A trade between the twins and Seattle makes perfect sense, the twins need a good starting pitcher with a reason salary, and the mariner could use Polanco and Kepler.   Not to mention blake snell wants to play for his hometown mariners.

[Trov]

It will sure be interesting to see what Ohtani signs for.  Before the second TJ surgery I was estimating close to what rumors have him at.  Right now rumors are $550 to $600 mil.  I would have found that reasonable based on his two-way play.  However, coming off a second TJ he will be 1 year from pitching again, and there is not a good track record of returning on 2 TJ surgeries.  If he cannot provide full value as a pitcher then he is a DH, a very good one, but a DH none the less.  If he can regain some value will it be as a starter again?  I get that you can always fall back on him being a hitter if he cannot pitch, but that is a lot of money for a DH that might pitch again down the road.  Looks like the big spenders do not care and willing to take a huge risk. 

[Trov]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I certainly don't expect Logan Gilbert to be available in trade, so I don't know why his name is the one put out there when mentioning Kepler to Seattle. But these are certainly fun rumors to read about.

No way should Seattle do Kepler straight up for Gilbert, but mixing Kepler, Polanco, and a prospect may be had for Gilbert.  We do not know how bad Seattle may feel those holes need to be filled, and what else they can get for their pitching surplus.  I do not expect any move until the pitching market shakes out though.  Until the international guy signs, Snell and Montgomery will not sign.  Any team with surplus pitching should not make trades, unless they feel too good to turn down until the FA market shakes out. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

35 minutes ago, Trov said:

No way should Seattle do Kepler straight up for Gilbert, but mixing Kepler, Polanco, and a prospect may be had for Gilbert.  We do not know how bad Seattle may feel those holes need to be filled, and what else they can get for their pitching surplus.  I do not expect any move until the pitching market shakes out though.  Until the international guy signs, Snell and Montgomery will not sign.  Any team with surplus pitching should not make trades, unless they feel too good to turn down until the FA market shakes out. 

Interesting thought. Kepler and Polanco would be some compelling one-stop shopping for them, no question. I wonder if they're thinking as much about the next year or two as a window to win as they would need to be, in order to make that kind of swap. 

[harmony55]

6 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

My guess (and that's all it is) is because, much like Miami last winter, Seattle has pitching prospects and needs at both RF and 2B.  Just a guess!  It would be a great trade if it happens.

Would Jorge Polanco represent a significant upgrade over Seattle's in-house options at second base (and third base)?

Compare how Polanco stacks up in fWAR over the past two seasons:

Polanco 3.3 fWAR in 184 games

Luis Urias: 2.2 fWAR in 171 games
Josh Rojas: 3.8 fWAR in 230 games
Jose Caballero: 2.2 fWAR in 104 games (2023 debut)
Dylan Moore: 2.8 fWAR in 171 games

Seattle also has an intriguing second-base prospect in Ryan Bliss, who is projected to make his MLB debut in 2024 after posting these numbers this year split between Double A and Triple A in his age 23 season:

612 PA, .304/.378/.524/.902, 110 R, 23 HR, 86 RBI, 34 2B, 8 3B, 55 SB, 15 CS, 58 BB, 119 K

 A college teammate of Edouard Julien at Auburn, Bliss was the starting second baseman for the National League in the 2023 Futures Game before being sent to Seattle later that month in the Paul Sewald trade. Bliss was named Defensive Player of the Year in the Arizona Fall League where he slugged a grand slam in the championship play-in game.

The Mariners are unlikely to trade a starting pitcher for Polanco.

[Ted Schwerzler]

Both Kepler and Polanco fit for Seattle, but anything for Gilbert is going to cost a ton. Outlined that in a previous piece here: 

 

[Fatbat]

Gilbert for kep and polo. Sounds good! Too bad it probably won’t happen but what other prospect would have to be thrown in to make it work?

[LA Vikes Fan]

The prospect necessary to go with Kepler and Polanco for Gilbert? Brooks Lee, Kepler and Polanco is almost a perfect match at baseball trade values. So is Kepler, Polanco, Emmanuel Rodriguez and either Wallner or Varland. 

In other words, Gilbert is worth 2 vets with good numbers on good contracts, plus either our #1 prospect (or #2 depending on how you value Walter Jenkins), OR a high upside OF in Rodriguez PLUS a potential starter in Varland or a high upside slugger in Wallner. In other words, a heck of a lot more than Kepler plus Polanco. 

Let's get dreams of Gilbert out of our heads. Not only would Seattle be crazy to trade him, he is waaaay too expensive in terms of talent necessary to acquire him. The realistic options are Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller. Those guys match up with a Polanco plus Rodriguez return, or even straight up for Eduard Julien with the Mariners throwing in a good but not great MLB reliever like Justin Topa. 

[Heiny]

I think you could get Gilbert for Kepler, Julian and E-Rod.  But would I make that trade?  I would have to think pretty hard on it.  

[DJL44]

4 hours ago, Trov said:

If he cannot provide full value as a pitcher then he is a DH, a very good one, but a DH none the less.

Ohtani can play the field in RF or 1B. Even if he can't pitch he's not just a DH.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

Gilbert for kep and polo. Sounds good! Too bad it probably won’t happen but what other prospect would have to be thrown in to make it work?

Royce Lewis

[Oldgoat_MN]

3 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Gilbert for kep and polo. Sounds good! Too bad it probably won’t happen but what other prospect would have to be thrown in to make it work?

For Gilbert, lots. For a different young pitcher, might be close.

[Fatbat]

I like Gilbert but not at those prices. 

[Doctor Gast]

I remember in Moneyball when Bean wanted a trade for a certain player & offer a certain player. He'd asked for a different player & offered a different player but it boiled down that he got his player with the player he wanted to offer. In the begining there's a lot of posturing by the FOs & FAs to get their desired outcome. So don't believe evrything you read. Just like a super car promotion, you go in to buy the car on sale. But discover that the car had been sold but they have another car they'd love to sell you.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

6 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Ohtani can play the field in RF or 1B. Even if he can't pitch he's not just a DH.

But how soon will he be able to throw in the field in game conditions?  They might want to protect that arm a bit more than that.

 

[DJL44]

10 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

But how soon will he be able to throw in the field in game conditions?  They might want to protect that arm a bit more than that.

See Bryce Harper

[Otaknam]

I can be onboard with a Kepler or Polanco and a prospect for Mariners’ Gilbert. Polanco is the most obvious because of the Twins’ young infield depth. That frees up $10 million.