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Derek Falvey hasn’t offered much in the way of concrete plans for Rocco Baldelli’s 2024 club thus far. We have heard how uncertainty regarding a new broadcasting deal will impact the payroll. There have been rumors of veteran players whom the Twins could make available. The team has watched three talented pitchers sign elsewhere as free agents. Subtractions (and speculation about them) abound, but there haven't yet been additions or replacements.
The ball has to get rolling at some point, though. What are a few focal points when teams convene during baseball’s offseason get-together?
Do the Twins Make a Move?
A year ago, the Minnesota Twins were active before the Winter Meetings. On November 18, they traded Gio Urshela to the Los Angeles Angels for Alejandro Hidalgo, and followed that up by acquiring Kyle Farmer from the Cincinnati Reds for Casey Legumina. A few minor-league deals happened earlier in the month, but Christian Vazquez didn’t agree to their first free-agent deal until December 16. Joey Gallo then followed suit not long after.
Unfortunately, there isn’t a condensed, football- or basketball-style free-agent frenzy in baseball, as is the case in other sports. We saw a one after the lockout was lifted a couple of years ago, but traditionally, the hot stove heats up most during the Winter Meetings, and simmers (rather than boiling aggressively) throughout the winter. As Minnesota looks to scale back payroll, how aggressive they will be on the free agency front remains to be seen. This front office has traditionally waited out the market, but they could look to spend the dollars they have allocated early and create a modicum of certainty.
The Twins shouldn’t be considered prominent players for the biggest names on the open market, and there was evidence of that in allowing Sonny Gray to play elsewhere for $75 million in total guarantees from St. Louis. Finding players to do one-year deals this early on in the winter can be tough, but it may be where Minnesota looks to shoot their shot.
What Groundwork is Laid for a Trade?
More than the free-agent market, it stands to reason that the front office will be active in making trades. Darren Wolfson has mentioned on Twitter that the trade market is the team's focus, and the groundwork for any deal could be months in the making. The Twins have holes in the rotation and center field, where some intriguing options could be available from other organizations.
A year ago, there were rumblings of a Luis Arraez swap to the Miami Marlins for weeks before it happened. Ultimately, the Twins landed their new ace, Pablo Lopez, but the names exchanged in that deal shifted multiple times before it eventually came to fruition. The Winter Meetings are a place for those conversations to ramp up, and while the deal may not come together during the week, many decisions can be traced back to it.
Does a Rule 5 Selection Happen?
The Twins protected four players from the Rule 5 Draft when they added Yunior Severino, Jair Camargo, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Austin Martin to their 40-man roster. Each of them should have been considered locks, but that leaves a couple of additional players exposed to the opposition. DaShawn Keirsey played at a high level during 2023 and looked the part of a big-league outfielder for the St. Paul Saints. Maybe Anthony Prato, Michael Helman, or Andrew Bechtold interests a team.
Conversely, the Twins could add a player, especially if suppressing payroll is a focal point. A Rule 5 addition would come with cost certainty, and hitting on a pre-arb player would also have future ramifications regarding raises and team control. There don’t seem to be many straightforward paths for a player to stick all year with Minnesota, but an extra bullpen arm or utility player might be worthwhile. Not every player turns into Johan Santana, but finding another Ryan Pressly or your version of Akil Baddoo, Tyler Wells, or someone similar would be a boost.
What Happens to the Competition?
So far, the most aggressive team in the AL Central has been the Detroit Tigers. They locked up former Minnesota starter Kenta Maeda on a two-year deal. A.J. Hinch’s club has young talent like Riley Greene, Tarik Skubal, and Spencer Torkelson. They have money to spend, with Miguel Cabrera’s deal also coming off the books. How much do the Tigers continue to spend, and are they hesitant to go big after getting burned by Javier Baez?
Expect a selloff to happen for the Chicago White Sox, and a transition in the clubhouse seems logical there. Where does their former shortstop Tim Anderson end up, and how much belief is there that he can bounce back? They did bring in Paul DeJong to take over the position, but will they also be replacing Luis Robert or Dylan Cease after dealing either player for a prospect haul?
Cleveland remains a wild card, in that they are twisting in the wind. Jose Ramirez isn’t going anywhere, but what type of talent will he have around him? Will the Guardians spend any money, or will they be focused on finding another Kyle Manzardo-type return from someone interested in Shane Bieber?
Does Ohtani Choose the Central?
The greatest free agent in Major League Baseball history will sign a contract this offseason, but for how much and where Shohei Ohtani lands remains to be seen. He has been linked heavily to the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the Angels say they’ll try to keep him. Maybe the San Francisco Giants make sense, and are the Seattle Mariners being truthful in opting out of his courtship? There has been talk of the Blue Jays wanting to bring Ohtani north of the border, but the Texas Rangers could have interest in bringing him down south. We haven’t heard any links to the AL Central, and it seems unlikely for him to wind up in the Midwest, but it would send shockwaves to see the dual-threat talent playing routinely against the Twins for the next decade.
What are you most interested in seeing take place during the Winter Meetings? What are you hoping the Minnesota Twins do? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
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