Jarred Kelenic traded to the Braves

[Rik19753]

Atlanta receives Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales and Evan White

Seattle receives Jackson Kowar and Cole Phillips

 

 

[Rik19753]

Don't really understand what the Mariners are hoping to accomplish with this trade.

While Kelenic has been underwhelming after being the No.1 overall prospect, he seemed to turn it around this year and had a 108 wRC+. It seems much too early to be giving up on him, especially since it isn't like the Mariners have a surplus of OF depth. After the trade, the projected starters at OF on both sides of Julio Rodriguez are Cade Marlowe and Dominic Canzone. The return does not look appealing at all, with Jackson Kowar being traded two times in the span of a month indicating that the Royals and Braves didn't really have huge plans for him. I'm sure if the Mariners had just traded Kelenic to the Royals straight up they would have gotten much more than Kowar. Cole Phillips is the 26th ranked Braves prospect on Fangraphs and has not thrown a single pitch in the minors.

From the Braves side, this seems like another shrewd move that nets them a tremendously high-upside  player that they can develop slowly. Given that the expectations of being a No.1 overall pick are immense, it will probably benefit Kelenic greatly to go to the Braves where he won't be expected to be the savior of the franchise. I wouldn't be surprised to see him hitting 3rd for a loaded Braves lineup in a few years.

Finally, from the Twins perspective, this trade is interesting in that the Mariners just unloaded a left-handed hitting outfielder when they don't exactly have the depth to make up for it. It is hard to tell whether this makes a Kepler trade more or less likely. Given that they now have two nobodies as their starting OFs, it seems like they would benefit from adding Kepler much more than they would have yesterday. On the other hand, this trade could be interpreted as the Mariners having a ton of confidence with Marlowe and Canzone, meaning they think the OF is set.

[Rik19753]

After doing some reading, it seems the Mariners created some payroll flexibility with this trade. Gonzales and White were owed $29 million over the next two years. It still seems like Kelenic is a very high price to pay for offloading those contracts.

Given this information, it may be more likely that the Mariners are interested in Kepler and/or Polanco. if they lose out on the Soto and Bellinger sweepstakes, (don't know if they are really in on either) Kepler would be the next best thing.

[lecroy24fan]

This also could be a move to make room for Ohtani.

[Rik19753]

4 minutes ago, lecroy24fan said:

This also could be a move to make room for Ohtani.

Possibly. I did read somewhere that the Mariners were out on Ohtani, and I don't really know how much freeing up $30 million does for the Mariners when Ohtani may get 20 times that amount.

[Rik19753]

Reading reactions from both Braves and Mariners fan sites, it seems nearly every Braves fan is pleased with the trade, while Mariners fans are largely pissed off with the continued salary-shedding.

If this is the going rate for shedding bad contracts, if the Twins want to offload the Vazquez contract, they may need to pay more in prospect capital than initially thought. 

[tony&rodney]

Kelenic was a type (high Ks) the Mariners had said they were moving away from this offseason. Atlanta needed some pitching (Marco) and think they can fix Kelenic. White is attached because the return is low with Atlanta taking on salary. Seattle is clearly clearing salary for a bigger deal. They are not going to go into 2024 with a roster under $120M. I would think that the Mariners have several ideas percolating and may be attempting to unload Robbie Ray as well. Guys like Gurriel Jr., Tim Anderson on a rebound, and Yamamoto would fit neatly into their team.

[harmony55]

Baseball Trade Values gives Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales and Evan White a collective trade value of a negative $3 million but Seattle reportedly will send cash to Atlanta.

The Mariners likely are clearing salary to make a run at a free agent such as Seattle native Blake Snell, who reportedly wants to pitch for the M's. A Snell signing would free up the Mariners to trade a high-end starter for bats such as Randy Arozarena and/or Isaac Paredes. Max Kepler could be a short-term replacement for Kelenic but finding a match is not easy.

So much for speculation.

[Doctor Gast]

Very interesting indeed. Don't think that Sea can handle a big trade like Ohtani or Soto & it seems a few of FA's like SEA which is good for them. Kepler would be a great 1yr. fall back option. Good sign that SEA is moving away from the SO fad, So I expect them to do better & hope the Twins do the same.

[Hashim]

7 hours ago, Rik19753 said:

Possibly. I did read somewhere that the Mariners were out on Ohtani, and I don't really know how much freeing up $30 million does for the Mariners when Ohtani may get 20 times that amount.

Yeah 😂😂. Ohtani is getting at least 45/50 mill a year. 

[dxpavelka]

8 hours ago, Rik19753 said:

Possibly. I did read somewhere that the Mariners were out on Ohtani, and I don't really know how much freeing up $30 million does for the Mariners when Ohtani may get 20 times that amount.

Feels like Ohtani will get that money spread out over a much longer time frame.

[dxpavelka]

Soo....    A team other than the Twins might be looking at some cost control measures in light of certain uncertanties for the upcoming season.  I had no idea.

[DJL44]

8 hours ago, lecroy24fan said:

This also could be a move to make room for Ohtani.

They're bidding on Yamamoto, not on Ohtani.

[DJL44]

Makes me wonder what Seattle would give up to get rid of Robbie Ray.

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Makes me wonder what Seattle would give up to get rid of Robbie Ray.

Nobody will trade for Ray unless Seattle adds a significant player, which they currently do not have. Kelenic was that guy. Ray is due $74M. Sonny Gray is a better choice and that is mol what he signed for with St. Louis. Jordan Montgomery will want the same contract. Thus, why trade for Ray, a guy who is a bit iffy and actually more expensive when one considers that Robbie will only be ready after the All Star Game next summer. 2.4 years for $74 million is expensive. But, what do I know? Perhaps Seattle throws in Emerson Hancock and the recently acquired Cole Phillips with Ray to a team for a signed baseball. Then Seattle can sign Snell and Yamamoto.

[DJL44]

35 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Nobody will trade for Ray unless Seattle adds a significant player, which they currently do not have. Kelenic was that guy. Ray is due $74M. Sonny Gray is a better choice and that is mol what he signed for with St. Louis. Jordan Montgomery will want the same contract. Thus, why trade for Ray, a guy who is a bit iffy and actually more expensive when one considers that Robbie will only be ready after the All Star Game next summer. 2.4 years for $74 million is expensive. But, what do I know? Perhaps Seattle throws in Emerson Hancock and the recently acquired Cole Phillips with Ray to a team for a signed baseball. Then Seattle can sign Snell and Yamamoto.

You outlined why Robbie Ray has negative value, but he still does have value.

Harry Ford, Jonatan Clase & Robbie Ray for Randy Dobnak and Christian Vazquez - who says no?

[jorgenswest]

I wonder if they are trying to go big on someone. If that is the case I don’t see them taking on Polanco or Kepler.

[tony&rodney]

8 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

You outlined why Robbie Ray has negative value, but he still does have value.

Harry Ford, Jonatan Clase & Robbie Ray for Randy Dobnak and Christian Vazquez - who says no?

Twins say no.

[SteveLV]

Seems like the Twins are one of the last franchises that will be taking a salary dump.  They are trying to do the same thing!

Seattle is clearing room for Snell and/or one of the Asian free agents.

[DJL44]

31 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Twins say no.

That's unfortunate because from a talent perspective that would be robbery for the Twins. 3 potential starting players for a backup catcher is an amazing deal.

[chpettit19]

51 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

You outlined why Robbie Ray has negative value, but he still does have value.

Harry Ford, Jonatan Clase & Robbie Ray for Randy Dobnak and Christian Vazquez - who says no?

Seattle says no.

[chpettit19]

47 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Twins say no.

The Twins are turning down a top 100 prospect, another top 10 system prospect, and a guy that'd be in the running as their #1 pitcher once he's back on the mound in exchange for a AAA pitcher making $2+ mil and a backup catcher making $10 mil? The Twins should jump at that deal if Seattle is willing to make it. That's an absolute steal for the Twins. You'd get a frontline starter for 47.75 mil over 3 years (his 73 minus the 25.25 of Dobnak and Vazquez), plus arguably a top 3 system prospect (I'd take Ford over ERod, and maybe Lee), plus another top 10 system prospect. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

The Twins are turning down a top 100 prospect, another top 10 system prospect, and a guy that'd be in the running as their #1 pitcher once he's back on the mound in exchange for a AAA pitcher making $2+ mil and a backup catcher making $10 mil? The Twins should jump at that deal if Seattle is willing to make it. That's an absolute steal for the Twins. You'd get a frontline starter for 47.75 mil over 3 years (his 73 minus the 25.25 of Dobnak and Vazquez), plus arguably a top 3 system prospect (I'd take Ford over ERod, and maybe Lee), plus another top 10 system prospect. 

I picked Ford and Clase because they're blocked by Quero and Rodriguez for the Mariners but both fill needs for the Twins. I would do that deal for Polanco even though the trade website thinks it is an overpay for the Twins.

Dobnak is an interesting trade chit for a deal with a large market team because he's dead money but he doesn't count against the luxury tax.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

The Twins are turning down a top 100 prospect, another top 10 system prospect, and a guy that'd be in the running as their #1 pitcher once he's back on the mound in exchange for a AAA pitcher making $2+ mil and a backup catcher making $10 mil? The Twins should jump at that deal if Seattle is willing to make it. That's an absolute steal for the Twins. You'd get a frontline starter for 47.75 mil over 3 years (his 73 minus the 25.25 of Dobnak and Vazquez), plus arguably a top 3 system prospect (I'd take Ford over ERod, and maybe Lee), plus another top 10 system prospect. 

I may be the only one who takes Falvey at his word of a reduced payroll. It will be a pleasant surprise if the Twins roll out a 2024 payroll of $140-150 million. 

Ray should be ready to pitch in late July if everything goes well but not fully ready to be back without restrictions until 2025. That (mol) effectively means $74 million for two years ($37M per year). That is what I see. The trade is nonsensical in my view. I agree that others see something entirely different.

What do we say here ..... I would be glad to eat crow. I do not believe the Twins are doing that trade for two specific reasons: 1) It isn't a real thing. Seattle is not throwing out ideas like this; and 2) Money. Why would the Twins trade for Ray when they would not sign Gray? Ford and Clase do not have the excess value needed and the point is moot; money.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

(I'd take Ford over ERod, and maybe Lee),

I just saw this. Ok, I believe we just see these guys quite differently. Agree to disagree. Your points stand for you. I don't disagree with that.

[chpettit19]

19 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I may be the only one who takes Falvey at his word of a reduced payroll. It will be a pleasant surprise if the Twins roll out a 2024 payroll of $140-150 million. 

Ray should be ready to pitch in late July if everything goes well but not fully ready to be back without restrictions until 2025. That (mol) effectively means $74 million for two years ($37M per year). That is what I see. The trade is nonsensical in my view. I agree that others see something entirely different.

What do we say here ..... I would be glad to eat crow. I do not believe the Twins are doing that trade for two specific reasons: 1) It isn't a real thing. Seattle is not throwing out ideas like this; and 2) Money. Why would the Twins trade for Ray when they would not sign Gray? Ford and Clase do not have the excess value needed and the point is moot; money.

That deal only brings in an extra $10 million in 2024 payroll costs. Ray is at 23 mil for 2024, and Dobnak and Vazquez cost 12.25 together. If they're really set on trading Polanco or Kepler and get prospects back for them their payroll is no worse off than it is today. This trade doesn't necessitate a 140-150 payroll. In 2025 Ray is at 25 mil compared to 13.5 for Dobnak and Vazquez. You get him for 12 mil more in 2025 than you're already set to pay those 2. Then in 2026 it's the full 25 as Dobnak and Vazquez are off the payroll by then, but if they're still running 130 mil payrolls in 2026 we should be giving them the As treatment and not showing up to the park.

I mean the odds of that specific deal being done are so miniscule it's not even worth discussing, but something like that could definitely be something they're looking at if they're happy with their pitching outside of Ray and want to drop his salary to help spend on someone else. That's what this thread is about. The M's dropping a large pitching contract by attaching a good young player to it. They'd trade for Ray because they can get (in this specific hypothetical) Ford and Clase back while not adding much to their payroll commitments to get a frontline starter. Gray plus Vazquez is 95 mil over the next 3 seasons. Ray while trading Vazquez is 53. That's a financial win for the Twins.

14 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I just saw this. Ok, I believe we just see these guys quite differently. Agree to disagree. Your points stand for you. I don't disagree with that.

Ford is also a 20 year old who mashed at A+ this year like ERod. But Ford plays a premium position while ERod is likely a cOF where it's much easier to find guys who mash. But to each their own. For what it's worth Ford is ranked higher on the end of year national rankings I've seen so it's not like I'm saying anything too crazy. Ford is a top 50 global prospect. Getting him would be an absolute steal for the Twins in a deal like this.

[chpettit19]

22 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I picked Ford and Clase because they're blocked by Quero and Rodriguez for the Mariners but both fill needs for the Twins. I would do that deal for Polanco even though the trade website thinks it is an overpay for the Twins.

Dobnak is an interesting trade chit for a deal with a large market team because he's dead money but he doesn't count against the luxury tax.

If they can get a top 50 global prospect and Ray while trading away one of their bigger contracts I absolutely hope they do it. I'll spend an extra 15 mil a year for Ray and Ford over Vazquez (or Polanco or Kepler). That'd be a massive win for the Twins, in my opinion.

Yeah, I'm not sure exactly what you can do with Dobnak. His salary should hurt the Twins, but large market teams do like to flex their spending power and it not counting towards the tax is even more of a way for them to take advantage. He's an interesting piece for sure.

[Dman]

I think Seattle is looking to grab Snell or Yamamoto and then can use one of their young controllable pitchers to fill holes in the lineup.  I think they want to work with Tampa more than Twins.  If they can get Arozarena and or Paredes those are better targets than than Polanco and Kepler IMO.  They will cost more so maybe it won't make sense for them but those would be two good players for them to get if the price is right.  Polanco and Kepler would be more stop gaps than long term solutions and cost more money.

[Brandon]

14 hours ago, Rik19753 said:

Possibly. I did read somewhere that the Mariners were out on Ohtani, and I don't really know how much freeing up $30 million does for the Mariners when Ohtani may get 20 times that amount.

Its a start.  

[harmony55]

7 minutes ago, Dman said:

I think Seattle is looking to grab Snell or Yamamoto and then can use one of their young controllable pitchers to fill holes in the lineup.  I think they want to work with Tampa more than Twins.  If they can get Arozarena and or Paredes those are better targets than than Polanco and Kepler IMO.  They will cost more so maybe it won't make sense for them but those would be two good players for them to get if the price is right.  Polanco and Kepler would be more stop gaps than long term solutions and cost more money.

Here is a proposed Seattle trade with Tampa Bay if the Mariners sign Blake Snell:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/152515