Baldelli's Playoff Pinch-Hitting: Will It Pay Off or Backfire?

[Greggory Masterson]

It’s a question many fans have been asking. After two games, we might have an answer.

On May 22, 2023, the San Francisco Giants did damage to Twins fans’ psyches. In the second inning of the game, Sean Manaea entered from the bullpen. Before then-promising rookie Edouard Julien had a chance to register a single plate appearance, he was lifted for Donovan Solano. Likewise, in the third inning, young, exciting first baseman Alex Kirilloff was lifted for platoon bat Kyle Garlick.

By the end of the third inning, two fan-favorite hitters were removed with one plate appearance combined. Understandably, fans were upset. Baldelli’s penchant for pinch-hitting had gone too far. The Twins had to spend the rest of the game with platoon bats hitting, and Julien and Kirilloff were no longer available.

We asked the question here. Would the Twins use the same aggressiveness? The Twins were one of the top-performing teams in the league using pinch hitters, and they were especially effective in the second half. But could Baldelli get played like a fiddle by a savvy manager? What if the other team brought in a lefty early? Would he again fall for it and burn his bench in the second inning?

We’ve already gotten some indication as to how he’ll handle it.

In the first game of the Wild Card round, Blue Jays manager John Schneider called lefty Tim Mayza in from the bullpen in the fifth inning, a man on first, and Max Kepler—a lefty—up to bat. Baldelli left Kepler, who has hit lefties well this year, in the game, and he hit a single.

Baldelli opened the bench with runners on first and second and a lefty in Kirilloff batting, calling on pinch-hitting extraordinaire Donovan Solano. It was a big-ish spot in a 3-0 game, as a signature Solano barrel into the gap could score another run or two, and Kirilloff has struggled against lefties in his career.

Solano flew out to right and remained in the game. Willi Castro came in for Matt Wallner as a defensive replacement after Wallner’s plate appearance in the seventh inning. Kyle Farmer also hit for Julien in the seventh inning, with Genesis Cabrera, a lefty, in for Toronto. Farmer was expected to enter the game for Julien late anyway to tighten up the infield defense, and the lefty coming in just made it a more obvious spot.

Even the staunchest critics of Baldelli’s antics would allow these moves. But what if the Blue Jays pulled a Manaea on them?

Let’s revisit that day and add some context.

Everyone knew the Giants were planning to use an opener, John Brebbia, that day in May, but there was uncertainty as to who would follow him. Manaea, a career-long starter, was a suspect, as he had a disastrous start to his season and had come into three games to that point from the bullpen already.

However, in full view of everyone, Manaea threw a bullpen at Target Field that afternoon. As such, the Twins had assumed he would not be an option in that night’s game, as pitchers don’t usually throw bullpen sessions before pitching multiple innings.

The lineup was constructed based on the assumption that Manaea wouldn’t be an option. They were caught with their pants down.

It didn’t help that the Twins were already down four runs in the second inning. All of these factors provide some justification for what transpired that day—but it still was a miscue.

So, what if something similar happened in the playoffs? An astute manager might pull one over on Baldelli again and, hypothetically, bring in lefty starter Yusei Kikuchi in relief of righty starter Jose Berrios in the fourth inning of a tie ball game.

Just such a thing happened. With one on and no one out, Kikuchi was brought in at the same spot in the order that Mayza was the day prior. Once again, Kepler remained in the game. Once again, he reached on a single against a lefty. Once again, with two on, Donovan Solano entered the game for Kirilloff. He walked, setting up a Carlos Correa single to drive in the first run of the game.

After that, Wallner was lifted for Castro—a move that didn’t happen until the seventh inning the day prior—due to defense and not hitting. However, the team was in a position that necessitated a ball be put in play and another run score. Wallner has not hit lefties well and strikes out a lot. Castro did his job, though it resulted in a double-play. Still, the score was now 2-0 Minnesota.

“Sure, the situation is a nice cover, Gregg! Baldelli would have pulled them in the fourth anyway!” you yell at your screen.

I counter. In the fifth inning, the third prime candidate for being platooned came up to bat against Kikuchi. Julien was allowed to hit, and Farmer stayed on the bench. The difference? Probably that there was no one on base and one out when Julien had his turn. Farmer would later pinch-run for Julien in the seventh, after Julien had another crack at a righty—with a man on base.

Maybe two games isn’t enough time to detect a pattern, but it looks like Baldelli has a strategy in mind. He won’t take the superior hitters out of the lineup early unless he has reason to believe it’s a critical moment—men on base in a tight game. You don’t know if you’ll get another chance, so gamble now, but don’t pull one of your best hitters just because you can.

With Houston coming up, it’s doubtful we’ll see too many of these scenarios. They have one lefty starter—Framber Valdez—and a couple of lefty relievers who seem unlikely to make the ALDS roster. Once Valdez leaves his start, the lefties will come in to finish the game. If one of the lower-level lefty relievers does make the roster, I’m sure Baldelli and fans will have no issue with Donovan Solano hitting against him.

There’s reason for even skeptical fans to believe that the bench will be handled competently, even if opposing managers dig into their bag of tricks.

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[Karbo]

At this point I don't have a problem pinch hitting for AK or Wallner as each has struggled in the playoffs. At least Julian is getting on base, but the other 2 look lost right now!

[Blyleven2011]

Right now we are on the playoffs ...

In the past Rocco in the playoffs  hasn't  had a good track record managing ...

I'm not going to jinx the Twins and say anything negative  , but I'll wait till the series is over and hopefully be talking positivity about the manager in the ALDS  ... 

There's a first time for everyone  ...

 

[FlyingFinn]

No problem at all against the Astros as they only have RH's in the bullpen. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I don’t think it is possible to judge a manager’s tendencies about pinch hitting (or anything else) in the small sample size of a game or even a series.  There are lots of variables at play that can be interpreted too many ways to make a move obviously right or wrong, regardless if it works out or not.  It might be different if your bench was Rod Carew, Barry Bonds, and Ronald Acuna, jr, but that’s never the case.  It’s true that Baldelli uses pinch hitters for platoon advantage what seems like more than most, but with some glaring exceptions, it seems to have worked out for the positive more than the negative across the course of the season.  All you need to do is look at the numbers for Solano, Farmer, and Castro in order to see that.  

[Shaitan]

Say what you will about his PH tendencies. It's not a small sample size anymore. I think we know what he'll do and, generally, what the odds of success are. Which is slightly above league average. Which is also probably the best you can hope for in a game where reaching base 3/10 times is HoF.

[Craig Arko]

Yes.

[tony&rodney]

This really depends on the hitters now, doesn't it?

[Otwins]

It does depend on a lot of factors.  Today he let Farmer bat against a right-handed reliever but we had a nice lead and he is decent defense at 3B.  I have not been a Rocco fan but I believe he is starting to get the hang of being the manager. Dusty Baker schooled him a few years back in the play offs. This seems more even

[Jocko87]

This applies to lineup construction, pitcher use and pinch hitting as well.  What we are seeing in the postseason is what the true tendencies are and they are shockingly close to everything we have been screaming in the game threads relentlessly.

In the regular season many other factors like rest, hangovers, putting folks in test positions etc are at play.  It’s very easy for use to “manage” for the game we are watching but it’s apples to oranges in the regular season.

More Jeffers, check.

Let the starters stay in, check.

Pinch hit in leverage situations, check.

Don’t pinch hit just for platoon, check.

Don’t pinch hit when ahead unless high leverage and doesn’t hurt the defense, check.

All these are different from the regular season. So far it’s hard to point to a pinch hitting move and be upset when those were regular occurrences in the regular season.

[Otaknam]

Our opinions are no factor as to what Rocco will do. 

[Muppet]

7 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

This applies to lineup construction, pitcher use and pinch hitting as well.  What we are seeing in the postseason is what the true tendencies are and they are shockingly close to everything we have been screaming in the game threads relentlessly.

In the regular season many other factors like rest, hangovers, putting folks in test positions etc are at play.  It’s very easy for use to “manage” for the game we are watching but it’s apples to oranges in the regular season.

More Jeffers, check.

Let the starters stay in, check.

Pinch hit in leverage situations, check.

Don’t pinch hit just for platoon, check.

Don’t pinch hit when ahead unless high leverage and doesn’t hurt the defense, check.

All these are different from the regular season. So far it’s hard to point to a pinch hitting move and be upset when those were regular occurrences in the regular season.

Yes to all of this. His job in the first 162 is to win the division, not to win 100 games, sweep the Yankees, or go on massive 15 game winning streaks. One of the things I've noticed over the year is that the Twins very rarely swept any team. They'd win the first two then experiment (maybe). After 162 they know things like... will Gallo bounce back if given the opportunity? No. Will Vazquez provide enough defensive upside to bring in 2 days in a row? No. Will extreme use of pinch hitting outweigh limited benches in 10th innings? Yes. They have a whole 162 games of data to use when sculpting their postseason play. And now that they are here, the team looks a lot like the team everyone was clamoring for the whole time. They've dropped the dead weight of Gallo and Buxton. They have a fresh corps of rookies who are sinking and swimming, replacing mostly lost veterans. They have one of the best bullpens in the MLB. They are doing what they can to limit exposure to Ober and Ryan. This team has what it takes to win the World Series. And yes... THANKS TO ROCCO. (I know, I know,... slam me all you want, but I'd want nobody else running this team). 

[ashbury]

7 hours ago, Otaknam said:

Our opinions are no factor as to what Rocco will do. 

Thanks for the reality check!  I was in the process of giving a final proofreading pass to a hand-written note I was about to send to Rocco, outlining some suggestions, but now I will refrain.

[Linus]

I think Rocco has done a good job with his pinch hitting decisions. Especially last night NOT pinch hitting for Farmer so he could maintain his best defense with a lead. I think it is important to note that he doesn’t make the wholesale changes unless he has an opportunity to break the game open. I’m fine with that because you never know when those opportunities will come. The only time I grind my teeth is when the moves leave the Twins compromised defensively.  

[Linus]

Just now, Linus said:

I think Rocco has done a good job with his pinch hitting decisions. Especially last night NOT pinch hitting for Farmer so he could maintain his best defense with a lead. I think it is important to note that he doesn’t make the wholesale changes unless he has an opportunity to break the game open. I’m fine with that because you never know when those opportunities will come. The only time I grind my teeth is when the moves leave the Twins compromised defensively.  

Wholesale changes. Al Shaver flashback - he was the best.