Cute Teams Don't Win in October: Why the Twins Have a Better Shot Than the Orioles

[Hans Birkeland]

Baseball postseason history is littered with cute teams with good stories who fold in the playoffs, including many Twins teams of the past 20 years. This year's team isn't great, but unlike the AL leading Orioles, they at least aren't cute.

Image courtesy of Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports

MLB Network's Matt Vasgersian reflected upon the Twins’ recent excruciating win over Texas with the following statement: “Those are the kind of wins that make you feel like a team of destiny.”

That statement made me a little nauseous.

Let me be clear, this is not a team of destiny, and anyone who watches their games will agree. Not only have they not played to that level, but also I look at that branding as a negative. Generally, teams that are proclaimed as such are nothing more than what I call "cute stories," a baseball trope I have been following for years. The teams that represent the cutest stories never advance past the Divisional Series. I think there is something to that. Let me explain.

First, let's establish what constitutes a “cute story” type of team:

The easiest to define criteria is that they play above their talent level. They may have stars or even superstars but, in broad strokes, their run differential won’t be great and they end up with 89-93 wins, give or take. Think about the 2022 Guardians, 2021 White Sox, 2016 Rangers, 2013 Pirates, 2010 Braves or the 2003, 2009, and 2017 Twins.

If you are using the phrase "pure magic" to describe a team eliminated in the Divisional Series, you may be talking about a cute story.

Next, they rely on a “formula” to win games. This might involve a post-hype prospect the league hasn’t adjusted to (think Jose Tabata or Kevin Newman types) getting on base and getting driven in by a waiver claim slugger having a career year hitting a high volume of mistake pitches (think Mike Ford or Jesus Aguilar).

The starter (often with a below average strikeout rate) keeps them in the game and turns it over to a (usually) strong bullpen without great peripheral numbers. Their closer then comes in, only when there is a lead, and nails down the win.

We’ve seen this. It doesn’t work. In the playoffs every tendency is broken down and weaknesses are exploited. The post-hype prospect goes 1-for-12 with an infield hit (and gets thrown out trying to steal following the hit), and the waiver claim slugger strikes out 15 times because they have huge holes in their swing and struggle against elite pitching.

If they somehow have a lead, the closer riles up the crowd and throws their signature pitch... except it's rocked for a first pitch home run or double. Then they start to nibble, walk some guys (“they don’t usually do this!” says the broadcast) and before you know it, a rally has started.

The problem with cute story teams is that there is generally a lack of substance to their success beyond just raw run differential. They thrive off of good vibes, rags-to-riches narratives and general "underdoggery." The 2003 Twins were saved by Shannon Stewart and rode a hot second half to a playoff berth, despite a rotation that consisted of five guys whose best ERA+ was 101. Thankfully, Johan Santana was allowed to step in and front the rotation, but when the playoffs rolled around Brad Radke and Kyle Lohse were no match for the Yankees’ number two and three starters (Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens, respectively).

Doug Mientkiewicz went 2-for-15. Luis Rivas went 0-for-13. Christian Guzman went 2-for-13. Jacque Jones, who was known to struggle against lefties, was left to die against Pettitte. These were not competitive answers to what the Yankees were throwing at the Twins.

It stems, I think, from expecting success based on the numbers their players have accumulated during their nice little run in the regular season. As human beings, the team wants to “reward” them for their success, even if logically they had no business featuring prominently in a playoff roster.

For example, Mientkiewicz and Matt LeCroy had good numbers for the 2003 Twins, but they were still Doug Mientkiewicz and Matt LeCroy. Brian Duensing had a great stretch run for the 2009 Twins, but he was still Brian Duensing. Jason Grilli and Mark Melancon both had good years as closers on playoff teams, but they were who they were.

Now let’s take a look at the 2023 Twins. Compared to cute teams of the past, they look pretty good. All of their contributors are having either a down year (Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco) or are performing pretty in line with what they’ve done before (Donovan Solano, Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez, Jhoan Duran).

The only players playing above their previous norms, and it is debatable, are Max Kepler, Michael A. Taylor and Ryan Jeffers. It isn’t exactly clear why Kepler is suddenly an offensive force, but Jeffers was projected as a plus offensive catcher and has shown plenty of flashes in the past.

The rotation is indisputably solid and playoff caliber, ranking first in Fangraphs’ metric for rotation quality.

The offense is powered by a trio of rookies in Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner. Although their success couldn’t have necessarily been predicted, no one should be surprised based on their track record as prospects.

Alex Kirilloff appears close to a rehab assignment. That could give him plenty of time to get his timing back before October. Byron Buxton will attempt to play center field upon his return which may be around the same time. Take a look at their projected lineup against a right-hander in the playoffs if both of those scenarios come to fruition:

Edouard Julien DH
Jorge Polanco 2B
Carlos Correa SS
Byron Buxton CF
Alex Kirilloff 1B
Royce Lewis 3B
Max Kepler RF
Matt Wallner LF
Ryan Jeffers C

This configuration is a lot of things, but it isn’t cute. The two highly-paid stars, Buxton and Correa, might be its weakest links. Now, some of those guys will go cold in the next month or so, and it's fairly likely that one or two will get hurt. However, Donovan Solano is a good fallback option, and in most years Austin Martin would be a potential late-season sparkplug.

Now compare that to the Baltimore Orioles, my favorite for this year’s cutest team. Think about who starts Game 1 of a playoff series for them. It’s probably Kyle Bradish, who is having a nice year, but doesn’t have an overwhelming strikeout percentage and has never been a Top 100 prospect. He also has no real track record of success and is fast approaching his career high of 145 1/3  innings pitched.

Their next choice is Kyle Gibson and his 85 ERA+. Twins fans are familiar with his work. Their third choice is probably Grayson Rodriguez, who was a Top 5 global prospect going into the year and has tons of potential, but has pitched to a 5.38 ERA over 17 starts.

They have a decent crop of above average hitters, but none are superstars, even if Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman certainly have that projection. Their offense has been carried at points by Ryan O’Hearn, who they picked up off waivers with a career 83 OPS+ prior to this year.

And their dominant closer, Felix Bautista, is now out with a damaged UCL, leaving former Twin Yennier Cano to close out tight games in a pennant race. He’s been good, but his strikeout rate is below average (23.9%) and he is unproven. I like their chances for the next five years, but this year they are too cute by half.

The nice thing for the Orioles is that they will likely get a first round bye, but in terms of who wins more playoff games, I would take the Twins getting one over the Orioles (or any other cute teams, I’m looking at you Diamondbacks) getting any.

What do you think? Would you rather take a talented team that under-performs, or a nice little story? Sound off in the comments!

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[Craig Arko]

I’d rather be lucky than cute.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The 1987 Twins were a cute story, but you are probably too young to remember. 

[Trov]

I get the point of the article, I agree that a more balanced team has a much better shot in playoffs, because you are not counting on guys that are outperforming their norm.  However, every playoff team that has success have guys that get hot.  Really, I want the hot team with hot hitters over a the long term talented team.  I find it interesting you left out the 2002 Twins, a very cute team in my opinion, that upset the much better not so cute Oakland team.  That Oakland team made a nice story as well, but they had 3 top starters that by all accounts should have crushed the Twins. 

We went from the about to be out of baseball, contraction team, to winning division with a bunch of young hitters led by Jones and Hunter.  The rotation for the playoffs were Radke, Joe Mays, Rick Reed, Eric Milton.  Not exactly a great four guys.  We were up against Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder, and Barry Zito.  By all rights we should have lost, but managed to steal one.  Then we ran up against the Rally Monkey Angels. 

I do agree that sometimes teams outplay themselves in regular season and Baltimore may just be doing that.  The playoffs are always about who is hot, and not making mistakes.  The fact that the Twins have several guys in their lineup that could hopefully step up will be helpful.  Both have a lot of young guys leading the way that do not have much playoff experience and you never know how players will respond in those spots too. I think that is where the "cute" teams tend to fall is they made the playoffs but then their mind set where changed.  Every pitch is so much bigger.  Every little mistake gets magnified, and tends to compound.  

[Hans Birkeland]

29 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

The 1987 Twins were a cute story, but you are probably too young to remember. 

A lotta power, an ace in Viola, and a completely decimated Cardinals lineup. Cute could win back then.

[KirbyDome89]

For a team that isn't "cute," they sure do meet a lot of the criteria laid out for being labeled as such....

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

27 minutes ago, Hans Birkeland said:

A lotta power, an ace in Viola, and a completely decimated Cardinals lineup. Cute could win back then.

The 2014 Royals fit all your criteria for cute. 

[twinstalker]

"Nauseated," but your point stands.

[Hans Birkeland]

4 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

The 2014 Royals fit all your criteria for cute. 

Fair point, I considered making that caveat. The 2014-15 Royals are the exception, although their competition was not exactly elite. They beat the A's who never win in October, the Angels, who are cursed beyond recognition, the Orioles who were starting Chris Tillman in game one, Bud Norris in game two and Wei-Yin Chen in game three, and then got beaten by the Giants. The next year they beat the Astros before they were the ASTROS and barely did that. The Blue Jays, who they beat in the ALCS that year, were really good, but the Mets were pretty cute.

[Hans Birkeland]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

For a team that isn't "cute," they sure do meet a lot of the criteria laid out for being labeled as such....

Randy Dobnak ain't pitching game two.

[Cozinator]

Good point... Randy ain't pitching.

[KirbyDome89]

32 minutes ago, Hans Birkeland said:

Randy Dobnak ain't pitching game two.

Okay?

Guys playing above their talent level, relying on a "formula," post hype prospects, shaky bullpen, unproven, struggles against high level pitching....

None of that also applies to the Twins? 

[Hans Birkeland]

1 minute ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Okay?

Guys playing above their talent level, relying on a "formula," post hype prospects, shaky bullpen, unproven, struggles against high level pitching....

None of that also applies to the Twins? 

Subjective, but:

I made the case that the Twins are relying on players not playing above their talent level.

The way the Twins have won recently is certainly not a formula (comeback against Rangers, blowout against Rangers, and comeback 13 inning win against Rangers, comeback from 4-0 against Guardians)

None of our prospects are post hype (maybe Kirilloff), our bullpen isn't great but it is a high strikeout bullpen, which was my point (you can disagree with the point)

And we have done pretty okay against good pitching, we just hung 6 on Corbin Burnes, although Scherzer did get us pretty good. Dunning was having a great year before we got to him.

[Craig Arko]

Barbie vs. Oppenheimer. Oppenheimer wins more hardware but Barbie rakes in more cash. Who’s better?

[Boswell]

The 2023 Twins are quite a bit aways from being “cute”, so I guess we do have a chance to win a playoff game this year.
 

It’s been a miserable, ugly season with all manner of criticism and hand-wringing.  
 

This band of misfits could indeed find a way to advance in the “crapshoot”.  
 

I’ll still take the lone victory that turns the page on 20 years of suffering - keep your expectations low, folks! 

[Patzky]

FWIW the Angels just dumped a lot of players including Giolito and Renfroe. 

[denarded]

That projected batting order looks pretty pretty good

 

[Nine of twelve]

2 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

Barbie vs. Oppenheimer. Oppenheimer wins more hardware but Barbie rakes in more cash. Who’s better?

Of course he is. That’s why he plays first base. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

4 hours ago, Hans Birkeland said:

Randy Dobnak ain't pitching game two.

That 100-win Twins team in 2019? Cute little ballclub..

[Yawn Gardenhose]

Wow what a ridiculous article. 

This year's Twins team is the definition of "cute." They're below .500 versus teams with a winning record. Below .500 in 9-inning games (i.e. games not decided by stupid Manfred extra inning gift runners). Below .500 on the road. On pace to shatter the strikeout record by an offense. Have a bullpen of which Emilio Pagan has been one of the most reliable members.

They have the ninth-best record in the AL and are in line for the 3 seed and a home playoff series. If that's not indicative of "playing above their talent level" I don't know what is. If they didn't have the dumb luck of playing in what's literally the worst division in MLB history they'd be dead and buried and probably would have been dumping guys on the waiver wire today like the Angels just did. So cute are they that their "success" this year might force MLB to tweak postseason rules to prevent such a situation where the team with the worst record in the playoff field somehow gets to host a 3-game playoff series.

Cute as a button, really.

[USAFChief]

Baltimore has the best record in the AL. Better than the Dodgers. Run differential over 100. While playing in the best division in baseball.

This article isn't worthy of TD.

[KirbyDome89]

9 hours ago, Hans Birkeland said:

Subjective, but:

I made the case that the Twins are relying on players not playing above their talent level.

The way the Twins have won recently is certainly not a formula (comeback against Rangers, blowout against Rangers, and comeback 13 inning win against Rangers, comeback from 4-0 against Guardians)

None of our prospects are post hype (maybe Kirilloff), our bullpen isn't great but it is a high strikeout bullpen, which was my point (you can disagree with the point)

And we have done pretty okay against good pitching, we just hung 6 on Corbin Burnes, although Scherzer did get us pretty good. Dunning was having a great year before we got to him.

You made the case that Baltimore is a Cinderella team, soon to get snuffed out, and the Twins, despite qualifying for nearly all your "cute," criteria, and toiling away in the worst division in baseball, are primed to make a run.

The Twins might be left standing, but it won't be because MN is suddenly unlocking some hidden talent level and Baltimore is a fraud.

[Karbo]

17 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

The 1987 Twins were a cute story, but you are probably too young to remember. 

I thought the same thing. Nobody really gave them much of a chance. They got hot at the right time and guys that played their hearts out.

[old nurse]

14 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Baltimore has the best record in the AL. Better than the Dodgers. Run differential over 100. While playing in the best division in baseball.

This article isn't worthy of TD.

I think you probably have to be a caretaker to get the worthy articles. Just a guess at what is there since I am not one. 

[old nurse]

When you look to see who have been MVPs in the playoffs you see about half of them are players playing above their normal levels. Cute can be necessary for a w

[Hans Birkeland]

20 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Baltimore has the best record in the AL. Better than the Dodgers. Run differential over 100. While playing in the best division in baseball.

This article isn't worthy of TD.

Game 1: Kyle Bradish versus Sonny Gray, Kevin Gausman, Luis Castillo, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Tyler Glasnow, 

Game 2: Kyle Gibson (maybe Dean Kremer) versus Pablo Lopez, Jose Berrios, George Kirby, Framber Valdez, Jon Gray, Zach Eflin

They're running on vibes and I'm not buyin.

[Hans Birkeland]

18 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

The Twins might be left standing, but it won't be because MN is suddenly unlocking some hidden talent level and Baltimore is a fraud.

True, there isn't much to unlock beyond getting Gallo and Luplow off the roster, but I look at the Twins like an NFL team with an elite quarterback and some decent players around him.

The Orioles are like the a team with a total game manager QB and a slightly better team around him.

Both teams can win a playoff game or two but I wouldn't buy stock in the second team.

If I was a betting man I'd go with the Astros for the pennant but the Twins wouldn't have to get too lucky to beat anyone else in a short series.

[JD-TWINS]

On 8/29/2023 at 4:43 PM, KirbyDome89 said:

Okay?

Guys playing above their talent level, relying on a "formula," post hype prospects, shaky bullpen, unproven, struggles against high level pitching....

None of that also applies to the Twins? 

October Pen could be pretty solid - even very good…….Current back end 4 of Pagan, Jax, Thielbar, & Duran along with Funderburk, Varland, & either Maeda or Ryan & either Kuechel or Stewart……….Kuechel/Stewart being effective is a stretch but the other 7 guys can carry the load.

Seems the team with a Pen that’s been through struggles & underperformed and now ready in the Playoffs!

Kirilloff - Lewis - Solano - (reborn)Kepler - Polanco - Jeffers - Julien all healthy together seems to be a strong possibility for October. The author’s point of Buxton & Correa & Wallner being icing on the cake/fringe players is well made.

Lopez - Gray - Ober healthy would be a nice bonus!

Reason for optimism in October.