Cute Teams Don't Win in October: Why the Twins Have a Better Shot Than the Orioles

MLB Network's Matt Vasgersian reflected upon the Twins’ recent excruciating win over Texas with the following statement: “Those are the kind of wins that make you feel like a team of destiny.”

That statement made me a little nauseous.

Let me be clear, this is not a team of destiny, and anyone who watches their games will agree. Not only have they not played to that level, but also I look at that branding as a negative. Generally, teams that are proclaimed as such are nothing more than what I call "cute stories," a baseball trope I have been following for years. The teams that represent the cutest stories never advance past the Divisional Series. I think there is something to that. Let me explain.

First, let's establish what constitutes a “cute story” type of team:

The easiest to define criteria is that they play above their talent level. They may have stars or even superstars but, in broad strokes, their run differential won’t be great and they end up with 89-93 wins, give or take. Think about the 2022 Guardians, 2021 White Sox, 2016 Rangers, 2013 Pirates, 2010 Braves or the 2003, 2009, and 2017 Twins.

If you are using the phrase "pure magic" to describe a team eliminated in the Divisional Series, you may be talking about a cute story.

Next, they rely on a “formula” to win games. This might involve a post-hype prospect the league hasn’t adjusted to (think Jose Tabata or Kevin Newman types) getting on base and getting driven in by a waiver claim slugger having a career year hitting a high volume of mistake pitches (think Mike Ford or Jesus Aguilar).

The starter (often with a below average strikeout rate) keeps them in the game and turns it over to a (usually) strong bullpen without great peripheral numbers. Their closer then comes in, only when there is a lead, and nails down the win.

We’ve seen this. It doesn’t work. In the playoffs every tendency is broken down and weaknesses are exploited. The post-hype prospect goes 1-for-12 with an infield hit (and gets thrown out trying to steal following the hit), and the waiver claim slugger strikes out 15 times because they have huge holes in their swing and struggle against elite pitching.

If they somehow have a lead, the closer riles up the crowd and throws their signature pitch... except it's rocked for a first pitch home run or double. Then they start to nibble, walk some guys (“they don’t usually do this!” says the broadcast) and before you know it, a rally has started.

The problem with cute story teams is that there is generally a lack of substance to their success beyond just raw run differential. They thrive off of good vibes, rags-to-riches narratives and general "underdoggery." The 2003 Twins were saved by Shannon Stewart and rode a hot second half to a playoff berth, despite a rotation that consisted of five guys whose best ERA+ was 101. Thankfully, Johan Santana was allowed to step in and front the rotation, but when the playoffs rolled around Brad Radke and Kyle Lohse were no match for the Yankees’ number two and three starters (Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens, respectively).

Doug Mientkiewicz went 2-for-15. Luis Rivas went 0-for-13. Christian Guzman went 2-for-13. Jacque Jones, who was known to struggle against lefties, was left to die against Pettitte. These were not competitive answers to what the Yankees were throwing at the Twins.

It stems, I think, from expecting success based on the numbers their players have accumulated during their nice little run in the regular season. As human beings, the team wants to “reward” them for their success, even if logically they had no business featuring prominently in a playoff roster.

For example, Mientkiewicz and Matt LeCroy had good numbers for the 2003 Twins, but they were still Doug Mientkiewicz and Matt LeCroy. Brian Duensing had a great stretch run for the 2009 Twins, but he was still Brian Duensing. Jason Grilli and Mark Melancon both had good years as closers on playoff teams, but they were who they were.

Now let’s take a look at the 2023 Twins. Compared to cute teams of the past, they look pretty good. All of their contributors are having either a down year (Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco) or are performing pretty in line with what they’ve done before (Donovan Solano, Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez, Jhoan Duran).

The only players playing above their previous norms, and it is debatable, are Max Kepler, Michael A. Taylor and Ryan Jeffers. It isn’t exactly clear why Kepler is suddenly an offensive force, but Jeffers was projected as a plus offensive catcher and has shown plenty of flashes in the past.

The rotation is indisputably solid and playoff caliber, ranking first in Fangraphs’ metric for rotation quality.

The offense is powered by a trio of rookies in Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner. Although their success couldn’t have necessarily been predicted, no one should be surprised based on their track record as prospects.

Alex Kirilloff appears close to a rehab assignment. That could give him plenty of time to get his timing back before October. Byron Buxton will attempt to play center field upon his return which may be around the same time. Take a look at their projected lineup against a right-hander in the playoffs if both of those scenarios come to fruition:

Edouard Julien DH
Jorge Polanco 2B
Carlos Correa SS
Byron Buxton CF
Alex Kirilloff 1B
Royce Lewis 3B
Max Kepler RF
Matt Wallner LF
Ryan Jeffers C

This configuration is a lot of things, but it isn’t cute. The two highly-paid stars, Buxton and Correa, might be its weakest links. Now, some of those guys will go cold in the next month or so, and it's fairly likely that one or two will get hurt. However, Donovan Solano is a good fallback option, and in most years Austin Martin would be a potential late-season sparkplug.

Now compare that to the Baltimore Orioles, my favorite for this year’s cutest team. Think about who starts Game 1 of a playoff series for them. It’s probably Kyle Bradish, who is having a nice year, but doesn’t have an overwhelming strikeout percentage and has never been a Top 100 prospect. He also has no real track record of success and is fast approaching his career high of 145 1/3  innings pitched.

Their next choice is Kyle Gibson and his 85 ERA+. Twins fans are familiar with his work. Their third choice is probably Grayson Rodriguez, who was a Top 5 global prospect going into the year and has tons of potential, but has pitched to a 5.38 ERA over 17 starts.

They have a decent crop of above average hitters, but none are superstars, even if Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman certainly have that projection. Their offense has been carried at points by Ryan O’Hearn, who they picked up off waivers with a career 83 OPS+ prior to this year.

And their dominant closer, Felix Bautista, is now out with a damaged UCL, leaving former Twin Yennier Cano to close out tight games in a pennant race. He’s been good, but his strikeout rate is below average (23.9%) and he is unproven. I like their chances for the next five years, but this year they are too cute by half.

The nice thing for the Orioles is that they will likely get a first round bye, but in terms of who wins more playoff games, I would take the Twins getting one over the Orioles (or any other cute teams, I’m looking at you Diamondbacks) getting any.

What do you think? Would you rather take a talented team that under-performs, or a nice little story? Sound off in the comments!