Brewers 7, Twins 3: Middle Relief Falls Short, Julien Plays First

[Aggies7]

3 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

It's not like fans are clamoring for him to have pitched another 12 innings yesterday.  I'm positive his arm wouldn't have fallen off with ONE more inning yesterday.  I don't understand the argument that 5 innings last night falls within the realm of safe, responsible workload but 6 would have crossed the line.  Why not yank him after 4?  After 3?  Wouldn't that be more responsible?  For god's sake, he only pitched 70 innings last year!

This is going to be a thing in the playoffs, folks.  Due to the terrible Central the Twins are going to have a long time to script out the playoffs.  Get prepared for 5 inning starts out of Gray and Lopez.  After all, the bullpen's gonna be fresh just like it was last night, right?  Listen to Rocco:  the decision to yank Ober had nothing to do with pitch count/innings limits.  It was because Rocco thought turning it over to Dylan Floro gave the team the best chance to win.  That should be the A topic today, not innings limits.

I agree but it would be unfathomable for the twins to approach things like they’ve got the division sewn up. Plenty of games left directly against Cleveland. Haven’t even played Texas yet. 5 game lead, we’ve had plenty of longish losing streaks this season. This thing ain’t nearly close to over 

[John Belinski]

Rocco never has and never will have a clue on how to handle pitchers. It is sad that Twins fans will have to watch him be manager for many more years.  One of the worse days in history for Twins fans was when Rocco was hired as manager. There were certainly better choices for manager and our front office made the wrong pick.

[USAFChief]

53 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think that's a pretty accurate description for a number of people. It's fascinating to watch the dynamics of fans who have the luxury of being emotional about/breaking down 1 game, 1 AB, 1 pitch sample sizes vs the team making decisions based off 162 games + postseason.

Now I'm no Rocco lover. I'm not a hater either. I'm just neutral on him and the FO (I'd fire them all, but am not going to rant and rave about it yet). But I'm really interested in hearing the thoughts of the masses when it comes to Ober and what they'd do with a guy who threw 72.2 innings all of last year and has nearly doubled that already with 6 or 7 starts to go. He's already blown past where I thought they'd let him get to so I'm already intrigued by how they'll handle things. I most definitely am not advocating they shut him down like the Nats did with Strasburg back in the day, but he's in uncharted territory. Despite what many believe, the human body does breakdown when you throw too many baseballs in a set amount of time, and performance will suffer (yes, I know Nolan Ryan did crazy things, save me that speech, please). Just an interesting view into the minds of fans.

Can you provide some solid evidence for limiting his innings?

Yeah, I thought not.

 

You don't want anyone mentioning Nolan Ryan (or literally thousands of others MLB starters) because they blow away the specious logic of today's pitching theories regarding injuries and/or fatigue. 

 

Let him pitch. 

 

[Riverbrian]

Rocco pulled Ober after 5 with a 3-2 lead. 

A move like that is not out of this world out of the ordinary. 

He has a fresh bullpen and a healthy starter to manage through the rest of the season and playoffs. In my opinion, this is not something to get overly upset about. 

In the other dugout... Counsell pulled Miley after 5 after 89 pitches. 

The Big News in this game was Julien playing 1B!!! 

The World is still spinning this morning. Let's see what today brings. 

 

[hitterscount]

40 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think that's a pretty accurate description for a number of people. It's fascinating to watch the dynamics of fans who have the luxury of being emotional about/breaking down 1 game, 1 AB, 1 pitch sample sizes vs the team making decisions based off 162 games + postseason.

Now I'm no Rocco lover. I'm not a hater either. I'm just neutral on him and the FO (I'd fire them all, but am not going to rant and rave about it yet). But I'm really interested in hearing the thoughts of the masses when it comes to Ober and what they'd do with a guy who threw 72.2 innings all of last year and has nearly doubled that already with 6 or 7 starts to go. He's already blown past where I thought they'd let him get to so I'm already intrigued by how they'll handle things. I most definitely am not advocating they shut him down like the Nats did with Strasburg back in the day, but he's in uncharted territory. Despite what many believe, the human body does breakdown when you throw too many baseballs in a set amount of time, and performance will suffer (yes, I know Nolan Ryan did crazy things, save me that speech, please). Just an interesting view into the minds of fans.

Ober has pitched less than 120 innings this year. Hasn't pitched well in his last 4-5 starts. He's cruising through the last 4 innings, building some much needed confidence, and Rocco thinks this is a good time to pull him...  at 78 pitches? Listen to Ober speak after the game... just like last year these starting pitchers, this years' are beginning to show their frustration with this guy's decisions.  If you want to rest him, than push back or skip a start. Don't pull competitors from the game when they doing their job. 

Ober does have an injury history... so does every other starter. I would think the goal with him would be 170-180 innings this year. He realistically has 6-7 more starts in the regular season. I just don't understand why you pick that moment to "save" his arm. 

And to be clear.. this isn't one game where many of us are questioning his decisions. It has been on display for nearly 3 seasons.... and it doesn't end with only the pitching staff. The lack of fundamentals. revolving batting orders when they seem to have turned the corner, batting substations, the Joey Gallo lovefest this year, plate discipline or lack of possibly leading to a team record in strikeouts, sitting players in the final games of a series pretty much giving games away, are all IMO terrible managing decisions. 

If he thinks this team is playoff ready, he is sadly mistaken. If we were in any other division, we wouldn't even be competing for a wild card spot. His approach and decisions have taken a team that should be 15-20 games over .500 to struggling to maintain that mark. I believe it falls squarely on him...

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Why is it that Rocco Baldelli didn’t get credit for the Bomba Squad in 2019?  “Oh, but the juiced ball. . . .”  Apparently no one else could do it as well as the Twins that year so all of those other managers must suck.  I’m pretty sure that Baldelli knows more than me. 

Why is it that Rocco Baldelli doesn’t get credit for the starting pitching in 2023?  “Oh but he doesn’t know how to handle a pitching staff. . . .” He’s apparently doing pretty well at it considering how they rank, which must mean that all of the other managers suck.   I am perfectly willing to assume that he knows more than me. 

I’ve said it before.  Way too much blame (and credit) goes to the manager.  If the team wins, he’s a genius and if the team loses, he’s a bum.  Sometimes we forget that all of the other teams and managers are also trying to win games and that gets in the way of the Twins going 162-0 on the season.  

They lost last night.  It happens.  Get over it.  It’s a long season. The next day, we get up and we play another baseball game.  It will give everyone another chance to rail on the manager.  

[hitterscount]

9 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Rocco pulled Ober after 5 with a 3-2 lead. 

A move like that is not out of this world out of the ordinary. 

He has a fresh bullpen and a healthy starter to manage through the rest of the season and playoffs. In my opinion, this is not something to get overly upset about. 

In the other dugout... Counsell pulled Miley after 5 after 89 pitches. 

The Big News in this game was Julien playing 1B!!! 

The World is still spinning this morning. Let's see what today brings. 

 

As the spouse of a Brewer fan... this game ended when he pulled Ober. Their BP is superior to ours. We lose 8 out of 10 games if we want to play the BP game with them. in one run games...especially after the 5th. 

And yes the world is still spinning... very thankful for that. 

[Doctor Gast]

Ober is in new territory of innings pitched, it made total sense to try to limit Ober's innings to keep his arm fresh so we can keep getting good quality innings from him the rest of the way. Instead of trying to squeeze an extra inning from him & having less quality innings from him or or get hurt. The problem is with not having enough quality arms in the pen & how to use them.

Twins should have kept Julien at  1B all along not trying to make him into something he's not. Hopefully they have woken up & keep him at 1B.

[Woof Bronzer]

19 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Rocco pulled Ober after 5 with a 3-2 lead. 

A move like that is not out of this world out of the ordinary. 

As with a lot of sabermetric decisions, this omits the most important fact:  Rocco pulled Ober after 5 with a 3-2 lead AND REPLACED HIM WITH DYLAN FLORO.  Replacing a starter who is performing well with a low pitch count, with a bad reliever who seemingly hasn't had a clean inning since he arrived here, is quite out of the ordinary in my book.  

Details matter.  

[farmerguychris]

21 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Rocco pulled Ober after 5 with a 3-2 lead. 

A move like that is not out of this world out of the ordinary. 

He has a fresh bullpen and a healthy starter to manage through the rest of the season and playoffs. In my opinion, this is not something to get overly upset about. 

In the other dugout... Counsell pulled Miley after 5 after 89 pitches. 

The Big News in this game was Julien playing 1B!!! 

The World is still spinning this morning. Let's see what today brings. 

 

Agreed.  The idea that it was this awful idea to pull Ober is dumb.  The guy has never pitched close to this many innings in his career, and is obviously struggling as of late based on the significant increase in HR given up per innings pitched.  Yet people want to keep sending him out there when we had a pen which should have been able to hold the lead like they're paid to do.  

If the pen was able to hold the lead would people still be complaining?  Probably not.

Was nice to see Julien playing 1st, and while I hope we don't have to put him into that 1B/DH category that we seem to have an excessive number of players in - if it keeps his bat in the line up, great!

[farmerguychris]

14 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Why is it that Rocco Baldelli didn’t get credit for the Bomba Squad in 2019?  “Oh, but the juiced ball. . . .”  Apparently no one else could do it as well as the Twins that year so all of those other managers must suck.  I’m pretty sure that Baldelli knows more than me. 

Why is it that Rocco Baldelli doesn’t get credit for the starting pitching in 2023?  “Oh but he doesn’t know how to handle a pitching staff. . . .” He’s apparently doing pretty well at it considering how they rank, which must mean that all of the other managers suck.   I am perfectly willing to assume that he knows more than me. 

I’ve said it before.  Way too much blame (and credit) goes to the manager.  If the team wins, he’s a genius and if the team loses, he’s a bum.  Sometimes we forget that all of the other teams and managers are also trying to win games and that gets in the way of the Twins going 162-0 on the season.  

They lost last night.  It happens.  Get over it.  It’s a long season. The next day, we get up and we play another baseball game.  It will give everyone another chance to rail on the manager.  

Well said - A tiny cynical part of me is glad they extended Rocco just so I can see people groan and complain without having any data to back up their claims (example - he pulls his pitchers too early when our starters lead the entire league in average innings pitched).

 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I get that watching Ober get pulled from that game with 78 pitches is frustrating, but, legitimate question, is there an inning limit total that people around here would put on Ober? For reference, the most innings he'd ever thrown in 1 season before this year was 108.1 in 2021. He threw 106.2 in college in 2014 when he was 18. He's never thrown more than 100 innings in a season in his life outside of those 2 instances. He's at 136.1 so far this year.

So I'm legitimately curious if there's any limit fans around here would put on him, or would you all just let him throw an unlimited amount of innings?

Well they pissed away 17/18 of his innings in AAA this year, so there is that. (which puts him at 136 for season)

After the last two years my plan would have been for 24 or 25 major league starts for the year around 140-150 innings. With the playoffs looking like more of a for sure thing, I would probably give him extra rests between a few starts so he is closer to 23 to 24 starts plus the playoffs.

I don't see why a 28 year old pitcher shouldn't be able to pitch 180 innings a year. Because the Twins messed up I think they think it is better to limit innings by keeping the starts short then messing up the days of rest routine.

[awmonahan]

The bullpen was ugly, but I have to ask, will Jordan Luplow be batting third in the playoffs against lefties? Platoon splits are worth exploiting, but that lineup decision scares me. 

[Patzky]

4 hours ago, Fezig said:

Everything you said is God's honest truth. Might I add on the offensive side a philosophy of putting the ball in play and not swinging for the fences on every count has worked for over 100 years.

Simply putting the ball in play was demonstrated with great aplomb by Milwaukee last night. In case 100 year was too much for the boys to fathom.

[Woof Bronzer]

36 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

Agreed.  The idea that it was this awful idea to pull Ober is dumb.  The guy has never pitched close to this many innings in his career, and is obviously struggling as of late based on the significant increase in HR given up per innings pitched. 

So why did they even let him go 5 innings?  Wouldn't it have been even smarter to yank him after 4?  

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

The season ends in October. I'd let him rest then. That should be about 8 more starts.

That's a snarky response but I think way too much emphasis is placed on "innings" and not enough on current physical condition. If he's pitching through fatigue and soreness then he needs rest. If he's feeling good then he should pitch.

There's some pretty solid data showing that large increases in innings pitched lead to injuries and significant decrease in performance. I don't know the right answer. And I'm not suggesting they shut him down or anything. But pretending that there's no future effect from him throwing 100 more innings this year is ignoring the realities of the human body. To me it's a question of weighing the now vs the future. Whether that's an inning a game here and there vs his playoff performance or his 2023 innings vs his 2024 performance. These are things organizations need to consider so I'm just interested to see what people think.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Woof Bronzer said:

It's not like fans are clamoring for him to have pitched another 12 innings yesterday.  I'm positive his arm wouldn't have fallen off with ONE more inning yesterday.  I don't understand the argument that 5 innings last night falls within the realm of safe, responsible workload but 6 would have crossed the line.  Why not yank him after 4?  After 3?  Wouldn't that be more responsible?  For god's sake, he only pitched 70 innings last year!

This is going to be a thing in the playoffs, folks.  Due to the terrible Central the Twins are going to have a long time to script out the playoffs.  Get prepared for 5 inning starts out of Gray and Lopez.  After all, the bullpen's gonna be fresh just like it was last night, right?  Listen to Rocco:  the decision to yank Ober had nothing to do with pitch count/innings limits.  It was because Rocco thought turning it over to Dylan Floro gave the team the best chance to win.  That should be the A topic today, not innings limits.

It's not all about just yesterday. I would've had no problem with him going another inning. But pretending that there's no future effects of him doubling his inning total is simply ignoring the realities of the human body. Did that 1 inning save his career? Of course not. But their plan, believe it or not, isn't just about that 1 inning. I don't know what the right amount of innings for him is, but they've already gone above and beyond what most teams would do. That's not necessarily right or wrong, but it is interesting. To me at least.

And Rocco stated before that game even started that they were going to start giving Ober extra rest here and there including pulling him earlier in games. So, yeah, listen to Rocco.

[Craig Arko]

I get the feeling it was threads like this that inspired Souhan to write his infamous ‘snooty fan’ column.

[TwinsAce]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

That's a good question. I think it's pretty self-evident that bringing the IF in is the best way to cut the run off at the plate, but it would be interesting to see how often you get out of that inning without allowing the run after you bring the IF in. But, to be fair, that Turang "blooper" should have been a double play even with the infield in. That ball hit Correa right in the glove. You and I could've caught that ball.

I have noticed several times this year where the IF is in and they have been able to cut the run off at the plate, but sometimes I am surprised they don't just concede the run by playing back.  It feels like if you bring in a middle reliever, you are acknowledging that you could give up a few runs the next few innings.  If you brought in Sands or a longer reliver, then you are hoping for innings with the potential for 0-4 runs scoring.  But by playing in, they had risk of missing outs and prolonging the inning.

So why let the inning potentially go long because you can't get the easy outs at first?  This one always seems like a hindsight judgment call, so hard to know.

But like you said, when I watched the replay and saw the ball go to Correa and the runner almost at 2nd, that really should have been inning over and down by just 1.

[Blyleven2011]

11 hours ago, Baumer67 said:

Why would you leave Floro on to give up 6 hits and 5 runs, Baldelli gave the game away. You could see it going bad pull him already.

He did the same thing with JAX  , Jax didn't have his stuff  and Rocco left him in and again cost us a chance to keep the score close ...

There is a 3 batter minimum  that Rocco seems to ignore  , he just wants 1 inning from a pitcher regardless of the outcome  ....

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, hitterscount said:

Ober has pitched less than 120 innings this year. Hasn't pitched well in his last 4-5 starts. He's cruising through the last 4 innings, building some much needed confidence, and Rocco thinks this is a good time to pull him...  at 78 pitches? Listen to Ober speak after the game... just like last year these starting pitchers, this years' are beginning to show their frustration with this guy's decisions.  If you want to rest him, than push back or skip a start. Don't pull competitors from the game when they doing their job. 

Ober does have an injury history... so does every other starter. I would think the goal with him would be 170-180 innings this year. He realistically has 6-7 more starts in the regular season. I just don't understand why you pick that moment to "save" his arm. 

And to be clear.. this isn't one game where many of us are questioning his decisions. It has been on display for nearly 3 seasons.... and it doesn't end with only the pitching staff. The lack of fundamentals. revolving batting orders when they seem to have turned the corner, batting substations, the Joey Gallo lovefest this year, plate discipline or lack of possibly leading to a team record in strikeouts, sitting players in the final games of a series pretty much giving games away, are all IMO terrible managing decisions. 

If he thinks this team is playoff ready, he is sadly mistaken. If we were in any other division, we wouldn't even be competing for a wild card spot. His approach and decisions have taken a team that should be 15-20 games over .500 to struggling to maintain that mark. I believe it falls squarely on him...

Ober has thrown 136.2 innings this year. Those pesky minor league innings count, too.

I would've been fine letting him go another inning. I haven't made any comments about whether taking Ober out was right or wrong. I was just curious as to how others would handle it. Good rant, though. I hope it helped ease your pain.

[DJL44]

20 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

There's some pretty solid data showing that large increases in innings pitched lead to injuries and significant decrease in performance.

Leads to higher risk of injuries and decreased performance. Some pitchers who increase their innings get injured. Pitchers who have the same innings count get injured all the time too. Pitching has inherent injury risk.

This is one of those places where taking a broad trend and applying it to an individual can be problematic. It assumes that all pitchers are equal outside of the innings pitched in games. They all trained the same amount in the offseason, they all had the same routine between starts and they all throw the same pitches with the same mechanics which have the same stresses on the body.

Motion capture is probably a better indicator of Ober's injury risk. Are his mechanics falling apart? Is his fastball velocity down?

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Can you provide some solid evidence for limiting his innings?

Yeah, I thought not.

 

You don't want anyone mentioning Nolan Ryan (or literally thousands of others MLB starters) because they blow away the specious logic of today's pitching theories regarding injuries and/or fatigue. 

 

Let him pitch. 

 

Actually, teams have a ton of data showing evidence for limiting innings. So do places like Sports Info Solutions, Inside Edge, and other baseball data tracking companies. But I do always appreciate your snark.

Just like mentioning Greg Maddux to suggest soft tossing control artists are clearly going to succeed, or comparing pinch hitting for Jordan Luplow to pinch hitting for Harmon Killebrew, are bad comps, using Nolan Ryan to prove arms can last forever is a bad comp. I'm sorry I'm not sold on Hall of Famers and once in a generation outliers as solid data points for the average player.

I never said it was right to take him out. I've actually stated multiple times here I'd have been fine letting him go another inning. But let's not pretend there's no future effects when you push the human body well past what it's ever done before. As it turns out, that logic isn't specious, it's accurate.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

17 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

I get the feeling it was threads like this that inspired Souhan to write his infamous ‘snooty fan’ column.

OMG... I just read that article.  Not a big Souhan fan, but boy did he hit that one on the head.

Seth posted about it a week ago, I am not surprised it did not hit any traction on this website.  Too close to home for some methinks...

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Leads to higher risk of injuries and decreased performance. Some pitchers who increase their innings get injured. Pitchers who have the same innings count get injured all the time too. Pitching has inherent injury risk.

This is one of those places where taking a broad trend and applying it to an individual can be problematic. It assumes that all pitchers are equal outside of the innings pitched in games. They all trained the same amount in the offseason, they all had the same routine between starts and they all throw the same pitches with the same mechanics which have the same stresses on the body.

Motion capture is probably a better indicator of Ober's injury risk. Are his mechanics falling apart? Is his fastball velocity down?

Fair. But I wouldn't call a guy who's been able to stay healthy enough to throw 100 innings twice in his life somebody who has a low injury risk to start with. I've said over and over here that I don't know what the right answer is, and I would've been fine with him going another inning. It's the people acting like it was a travesty that he was removed when he was who are acting like there's a simple, obvious right answer. 

The question is how do you balance future risk vs present performance. I don't know the right answer. But the people acting like there should be no concern paid to the future risk and they should just "let him pitch" have the luxury of acting from a fan perspective as opposed to a team employee perspective. We have these kinds of discussions all the time around here. The team absolutely needs to be concerned about the future of Ober and the rest of the guys they're relying on for future production. Not all fans like that answer. 

And, yes, there are other data points outside of his inning totals and pitch counts that need to be factored into his injury risk. And the team is tracking those as well. Are those who are so confident that he should've kept going positive that they haven't seen any red flags in those indicators over his last few starts, or they weren't seeing them yesterday? Or is the only possible answer that Rocco is terrible and has no idea what he's doing?

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Well they pissed away 17/18 of his innings in AAA this year, so there is that. (which puts him at 136 for season)

After the last two years my plan would have been for 24 or 25 major league starts for the year around 140-150 innings. With the playoffs looking like more of a for sure thing, I would probably give him extra rests between a few starts so he is closer to 23 to 24 starts plus the playoffs.

I don't see why a 28 year old pitcher shouldn't be able to pitch 180 innings a year. Because the Twins messed up I think they think it is better to limit innings by keeping the starts short then messing up the days of rest routine.

Don't disagree that those minor league innings are far less than ideal.

That is about what my plan would've been as well. I would've found a couple times where they had extra off days to skip his start throughout the year.

I think there's legitimate reason to worry about a 28 year old who's only been able to throw 100 innings twice in his life being able to throw 180 innings in a year after he threw fewer than 80. I don't know the right answer for how you weigh that extra risk from a 100+ inning increase vs his current performance, but there is absolutely extra risk that I think it'd be poor team management practice for them to ignore. I prefer the plan that would've limited his starts here and there throughout the year to the one that limits his innings in individual starts, but they don't ask me my opinion much these days.

[Woof Bronzer]

28 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

I get the feeling it was threads like this that inspired Souhan to write his infamous ‘snooty fan’ column.

Questioning a decision that directly led to a loss is "snooty"?    

[Blyleven2011]

4 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

If Correa catches that soft liner with the runner going, that’s a double play and they are out of the inning down 4-3.  That  hurt.

That missed catch just cost Correa any chance at a gold glove  ....

Had he made the catch and completed the double play he would have catapulted  to the top of the list for gold glove  ...

He took his eyes off the ball , with the runner running in front of him , got to follow the ball right into the glove ....

[Woof Bronzer]

12 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

OMG... I just read that article.  Not a big Souhan fan, but boy did he hit that one on the head.

Seth posted about it a week ago, I am not surprised it did not hit any traction on this website.  Too close to home for some methinks...

Telling fans how to feel is not "hitting it on the head," sorry.  If I told you that you shouldn't follow this team because of past failures I'm guessing you'd take issue with that.  

[python85]

4 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

I believe it is at least 12 games Rocco has thrown away in game by all of a sudden deciding to not be competitive

With 12 more wins this team is 77- 49 with the best record in the AL. The decision by Rocco didn't work out last night, but a different manager doesn't suddenly turn this team from average to excellent