Sonny Gray and the Pursuit of a Cy Young

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins acquired Sonny Gray going into the 2022 Major League Baseball season. With Derek Falvey needing substantial help for the starting rotation, adding a veteran like Gray was a must. It couldn’t have gone better, and now he’s positioned for a Cy Young award.

 

Image courtesy of Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

When the Minnesota Twins traded for the final two years remaining on Sonny Gray’s deal with the Cincinnati Reds, it came at a substantial cost. Chase Petty was the most recent first round pick for the organization, and he was touching 100 mph as a prep arm. Gray though, a nine-year veteran, was someone that could bolster a rotation including weaker arms such as Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer.

Gray was fine in year one, posting a 3.08 ERA across 24 starts for the Twins. His peripherals were largely in line with the results, and he returned to Rocco Baldelli’s group this year as the likely ace. Bumped on Opening Day for Joe Ryan, Gray still had the most impressive track record.

Fast forward to mid-August, and he’s become just the fourth pitcher across Major League Baseball to record 4.0 fWAR on the season. He trails only Kevin Gausman, Zac Gallen, and Zack Wheeler across all of baseball. For those keeping track at home, two of those players are in the National League, meaning he is only looking up at Gausman’s 4.4 fWAR among American League contention.

Understandably, WAR isn’t the decisive factor for who will take home the Cy Young Award when the dust settles, but it is a good barometer of overall performance. Interestingly enough, both Gray and Gausman have identical ERA totals, and their FIP numbers are split by just nine points. Voters are unlikely to look at expected outcomes when deciding on an award, given the clock has run out and all that should matter are results.

For most, pitcher wins have fallen by the wayside as a measuring stick of performance. Gray has been hampered by lack of run support and has just six on the year, while Gausman has recorded nine. Gray’s strikeout totals are lower, with a higher walk rate, but he’s led the league in not allowing home runs.

Branching out from the WAR leaderboard a bit, names like George Kirby, Gerrit Cole, Nathan Eovaldi, and even teammate Pablo Lopez could be in contention. Minnesota has not had a pitcher win the award since Johan Santana did it way back in 2006. Bartolo Colon was the last former Cy Young winner they even rostered until Dallas Keuchel made a cameo late this season.

For Gray, winning the award would be perfect timing given his impending free agency. It seems unlikely the Twins would be bidders to retain his services, and while they will certainly give him a qualifying offer of around $20 million, he should expect a much larger payday. Despite brief talk of retirement, it seems crazy that Gray would walk away from such a big payday after performing at the height of his abilities.

The season Gray is putting up largely resembles another former Cy Young winner for Minnesota in Frank Viola. Gray hasn’t posted numbers this strong since he received votes for the award in both 2019 and 2015. In each of those years he recorded a sub-3.00 ERA, and with where he is positioned now, can certainly cross that threshold in 2023.

Assuming a relatively straightforward path of starts the rest of the way, Gray will face opponents such as the Pirates, Rangers, Guardians, Rays, White Sox, Angels, and Rockies. There is ample opportunity for him to dominate some poor lineups in that selection, and he can also establish himself as a top-tier arm with some clubs that can really hit the ball.

Tracking toward the award is one thing, and whether or not Gray completes the feat remains to be seen. Regardless, he’s positioned himself in a very good place with less than two months to go in the season, and because of his strong year, the Twins find themselves atop the AL Central and trending toward the postseason.

Gray would certainly love to pick up some individual hardware, and anchoring a strong rotation is something that could trend towards a larger piece of metal when the season ends.

 

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[Jocko87]

He's still available at +10,000 odds (appropriate) if you are so inclined.  I'll keep my powder dry. 

I feel like a guy like Shohei Ohtani would deserve at least a mention. 

No shade on Sonny, haha, but he ain't in this conversation.

[Ted Schwerzler]

2 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

He's still available at +10,000 odds (appropriate) if you are so inclined.  I'll keep my powder dry. 

I feel like a guy like Shohei Ohtani would deserve at least a mention. 

No shade on Sonny, haha, but he ain't in this conversation.

Ohtani will win the MVP award deservedly, and he'll get Cy Young votes, but don't think he finishes top five without a great end to the year.

[Jocko87]

28 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Ohtani will win the MVP award deservedly, and he'll get Cy Young votes, but don't think he finishes top five without a great end to the year.

Agreed, but he'll still finish ahead of Gray and deservedly so.  A mention that a guy pitching in his spare time is as good or better across the board than Gray is good context.

[TwinsDr2021]

IMO, right now it is Cole's to lose. He has the best ERA, most innings and is tied for 1st in the majors 18 with Quality starts (Gray 12).

Gray could catch him but IMO he will have to average 6+ innings per start the rest of the watch, and hope Cole and probably Gausman have some not so great starts.

 

[Teflon]

While Sonny Gray has been the best Twins player over the course of the season and has impressive qualitative stats, the Cy Young probably involves some quantitative minimums, as well. Not sure that Sonny gets to 10 wins or that the Twins post a better than .500 record in games that he starts - which is not his fault. Gerrit Cole, Nathan Eolvaldi, and Zac Eflin look a lot more like traditional Cy Young candidates than Gray.

[TwinsDr2021]

Ohtani has two less starts, the same amount of QS and his ERA is a hair under Gray, has 6 less innings than Gray and more K's than Gray, and ESPN WAR of 3.6 compared to Gray's 3.8. I put the odds of either of them winning about the same and below Cole and Gausman.

Not sure when Eovaldi is back but if he comes back with 8 starts like July he could get back into the conversation.

[Trov]

I know wins are not something to care too much about, but I still think voters look at it a little bit.  Cole or Eovaldi will get the Cy young, barring a huge drop off by both. Cole has better numbers as well, he has more games pitched, strike outs, and lower ERA.  Eovaldi is best pitcher on one of best teams, voters care about that too. Sonny should be talked about, but he started off super hot, then leveled off a bit and no run support and bad pen outings cost him some.  If he ends as hot as he started he will get votes, but Lopez is recently been the top guy in our rotation. 

[MMMordabito]

Just like Julien had no shot at ROY, Gray has no shot at Cy Young.  Keep pumping out the homer takes. They're fun to laugh at.

[SwainZag]

44 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

Just like Julien had no shot at ROY, Gray has no shot at Cy Young.  Keep pumping out the homer takes. They're fun to laugh at.

Both should realistically finish in the Top 5 and possibly Top 3 depending on how the season plays out.  I'm not sure either of them are homer take laughable.  Julien likely isn't in a realistic convo from a sheer playing time difference, but Gray does have an outside shot at making a run at the award.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

It is just on the edge of possible.  Not Miracle Mets level of difficult, but likely Morneau over Hamilton (after Hamilton hit a stupid number in the previous round) in the home run derby difficult. 

For me, the pertinent question is what degree of recognition does he need to get to no longer be signable for the Twins and/or put other teams in heavy pursuit?  I would either like the Twins to sign him for two years or so (or the accepted QO) or for him to sign for big bucks leaving the Twins in the dust but supplying them with a good draft pick compensation.  The latter would likely be a sure thing if he actually won the award, but it's also possible that he sits out there in tweener land if he doesn't and holds out for the big bucks. 

[tony&rodney]

.... and Pablo Lopez too?

[mnfireman]

There is no predicting how the voters cast their ballots, but right now Gray is 4th in MLB, 2nd in AL, with 3.8 bWAR and 4th in MLB, 2nd in AL, with 4.0 fWAR. He should garner some votes and reasonably could finish top 5.

 

[Ted Schwerzler]

4 hours ago, Teflon said:

While Sonny Gray has been the best Twins player over the course of the season and has impressive qualitative stats, the Cy Young probably involves some quantitative minimums, as well. Not sure that Sonny gets to 10 wins or that the Twins post a better than .500 record in games that he starts - which is not his fault. Gerrit Cole, Nathan Eolvaldi, and Zac Eflin look a lot more like traditional Cy Young candidates than Gray.

I don't know that the voting contingent, at least as it has evolved, cares about either of those things anymore (and really, they shouldn't.)

[Teflon]

2 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

I don't know that the voting contingent, at least as it has evolved, cares about either of those things anymore (and really, they shouldn't.)

Last year, 10 AL pitchers received votes from the 30 local market voters in the BBWAA: Justin Verlander,  Dylan Cease, Alek Manoah, Shohei Ohtani, Framber Valdez, Shane McClanahan, Shane Bieber, Nestor Cortes, Gerrit Cole and Kevin Gausman. Justin Verlander won the Cy Young receiving all 30 first-place votes. Verlander was 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA He also led the AL in WHIP by around 100 basis points. His 5.7 in pitchers' WAR (as calculated by Baseball Reference) was 4th overall behind Cease at 6.4 (14-8), Ohtani at 6.2, (15-9) and Manoah at 6.0. (16-7)

The most similar 2022 AL Cy Young vote-getter comparison to a 2023 Sonny Gray looks like Shane McClanahan who was 12-8 with a 2.54 ERA, 4.1 WAR, a 0.926 WHIP.  (2nd in WHIP to Verlander, 6th in Cy Young voting) Framber Valdez, meanwhile, had a higher ERA than McClanahan, a higher WHIP, a lower K rate and a worse SO/W ratio but got 4 more BBWAA writers' votes than McClanahan. (Both had a single 4th place vote, Valdez had 12 5th place votes, and McClanahan got 8 5th place votes) The main things in Framber's favor seems to be the 17 games he won and that he led the AL in innings pitched with 201. (McClanahan finished at 166),

This year, there isn't anyone having a Justin Verlander-type season so it's likely that 1st place votes will be split. That should make the overall scores lower and more dispersed. Still, should Gray stay among the leaders in AL pitchers' WAR at season's end, the additional wins that Eovaldi and Eflin have will be enough of an aesthetic differentiator to move Gray down the list. Since Voters have to list 5 pitchers, he'll definitely get some 5th place votes, maybe even 4th. With Ohtani and Cole also in the mix, however, I would be surprised if he gets any 3rd-place votes or higher. Wins are like the bathing suit contest in the pre-2018 Miss America pageant. Miss Arkansas and Miss Ohio may be neck-and-neck after the talent judging, but...

[old nurse]

A lot can still happen in 6 weeks. Gray will get top 5 votes but a lot of bad would have to happen for other to fall in the voting

 

[old nurse]

7 hours ago, MMMordabito said:

Just like Julien had no shot at ROY, Gray has no shot at Cy Young.  Keep pumping out the homer takes. They're fun to laugh at.

Gunnar fromBaltimore and the guy in Texas will be 1-2 in some order, with the guy from Japan in Boston 3 Julian if he does not falter would be 4 unless he goes on some amazing run. 6 weeks, anything can happen.

[Doctor Wu]

Bumped on Opening Day for Joe Ryan, Gray still had the most impressive track record.

Interesting article, but wasn't Pablo Lopez the opening day starter this year?

[Doctor Wu]

As far as Sonny's chances at a Cy Young award, I really can't see that happening this year. He's been good, and once in a while very good, but I just don't think he's had the type of season that wins the award, Then again, he could start pitching shutouts (or like the last game, give up no runs for 6 innings) for the next month and then maybe that will put him in the driver's seat. 

[mnfireman]

3 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Bumped on Opening Day for Joe Ryan, Gray still had the most impressive track record.

Interesting article, but wasn't Pablo Lopez the opening day starter this year?

Yes

[MMMordabito]

17 hours ago, old nurse said:

Gunnar fromBaltimore and the guy in Texas will be 1-2 in some order, with the guy from Japan in Boston 3 Julian if he does not falter would be 4 unless he goes on some amazing run. 6 weeks, anything can happen.

Triston Casas and Hunter Brown likely slot in ahead of Julien as well.

Not that it matters.  This ain't horseshoes or hand grenades.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Gray is having a nice year, but the numbers do not add up.  His counting numbers are not that great, is doesn't lead in any of the big "stat" categories.  Not much of a discussion here.

He may get some votes, but nothing higher than 4th place.  Cole, Ohtani, and Gausman will all finish higher in the voting.

If he reels off 7-8 killer starts to end the season, there is a small chance he may be able to push the needle, but that is what it would take.

[HoskenPowell]

If the other top 5 candidates all fall on their faces and Gray runs off 5/6 straight wins with a shutout complete game vs a top tier team  ( not the Royals/white sox or A's) , then he has a chance.   until then the only Twins player who will win ANYTHNG is Joey Gallo as the strikeout king.

[dex8425]

At this point it's Cole's to lose. He leads in innings, WAR, is barely in second in ERA, second in WPA, fifth in WHIP, and is third in strikeouts. Those are really all the stats the voters care about. It's mostly innings and ERA. 

Sonny is behind Gausman, Cole, and is in the same tier as Eovaldi, Ohtani, and Valdez. He will definitely get some votes, maybe top 5 depending on how he and the other guys do down the stretch.  Felix Bautista is going to get some votes too; he might end up with 45 saves and leads the league in WPA.