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When the Minnesota Twins traded for the final two years remaining on Sonny Gray’s deal with the Cincinnati Reds, it came at a substantial cost. Chase Petty was the most recent first round pick for the organization, and he was touching 100 mph as a prep arm. Gray though, a nine-year veteran, was someone that could bolster a rotation including weaker arms such as Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer.
Gray was fine in year one, posting a 3.08 ERA across 24 starts for the Twins. His peripherals were largely in line with the results, and he returned to Rocco Baldelli’s group this year as the likely ace. Bumped on Opening Day for Joe Ryan, Gray still had the most impressive track record.
Fast forward to mid-August, and he’s become just the fourth pitcher across Major League Baseball to record 4.0 fWAR on the season. He trails only Kevin Gausman, Zac Gallen, and Zack Wheeler across all of baseball. For those keeping track at home, two of those players are in the National League, meaning he is only looking up at Gausman’s 4.4 fWAR among American League contention.
Understandably, WAR isn’t the decisive factor for who will take home the Cy Young Award when the dust settles, but it is a good barometer of overall performance. Interestingly enough, both Gray and Gausman have identical ERA totals, and their FIP numbers are split by just nine points. Voters are unlikely to look at expected outcomes when deciding on an award, given the clock has run out and all that should matter are results.
For most, pitcher wins have fallen by the wayside as a measuring stick of performance. Gray has been hampered by lack of run support and has just six on the year, while Gausman has recorded nine. Gray’s strikeout totals are lower, with a higher walk rate, but he’s led the league in not allowing home runs.
Branching out from the WAR leaderboard a bit, names like George Kirby, Gerrit Cole, Nathan Eovaldi, and even teammate Pablo Lopez could be in contention. Minnesota has not had a pitcher win the award since Johan Santana did it way back in 2006. Bartolo Colon was the last former Cy Young winner they even rostered until Dallas Keuchel made a cameo late this season.
For Gray, winning the award would be perfect timing given his impending free agency. It seems unlikely the Twins would be bidders to retain his services, and while they will certainly give him a qualifying offer of around $20 million, he should expect a much larger payday. Despite brief talk of retirement, it seems crazy that Gray would walk away from such a big payday after performing at the height of his abilities.
The season Gray is putting up largely resembles another former Cy Young winner for Minnesota in Frank Viola. Gray hasn’t posted numbers this strong since he received votes for the award in both 2019 and 2015. In each of those years he recorded a sub-3.00 ERA, and with where he is positioned now, can certainly cross that threshold in 2023.
Assuming a relatively straightforward path of starts the rest of the way, Gray will face opponents such as the Pirates, Rangers, Guardians, Rays, White Sox, Angels, and Rockies. There is ample opportunity for him to dominate some poor lineups in that selection, and he can also establish himself as a top-tier arm with some clubs that can really hit the ball.
Tracking toward the award is one thing, and whether or not Gray completes the feat remains to be seen. Regardless, he’s positioned himself in a very good place with less than two months to go in the season, and because of his strong year, the Twins find themselves atop the AL Central and trending toward the postseason.
Gray would certainly love to pick up some individual hardware, and anchoring a strong rotation is something that could trend towards a larger piece of metal when the season ends.
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- Patzky, Oldgoat_MN, Twinsrealist1 and 2 others
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