Should the Twins Trade For This Power Hitting Corner Oufielder?

[Cody Schoenmann]

A right-handed hitting corner outfielder remains the Twins greatest need at the upcoming trade deadline. Could this journeyman corner outfielder be the solution?

Image courtesy of Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The term "journeyman" typically carries a negative connotation with it. Journeymen are considered below-average yet adequate players who bounce from team to team, never finding a consistent home. Although this is the case in most scenarios, current Angels right-fielder Hunter Renfroe is an anomaly.

Since 2019, Renfroe has played for the San Diego Padres, Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox, Milwaukee Brewers, and Los Angeles Angels. Renfroe has bounced around, and if the Angels elect to trade Renfroe this upcoming trade deadline, it would be his sixth team in just five seasons. 

Despite not finding a long-term home since leaving the Padres in 2019, Renfroe has been an above-average offensive corner outfielder who is about average defensively.

If you take out Renfroe's 2020 season with the Rays, where he hit only .156/.252/.393 (.645) over 42 games and 139 plate appearances, Renfroe has hit .243/.305/.480 (.785) with an average wRC+ of 109 and 7.6 WAR accumulated over four seasons. 

In the past, Renfroe has been a traditional high strikeout power-hitting right-handed hitting corner outfielder, as evidenced by his career K% of 24.6% and Isolated Power (ISO) of .263, with a strong arm and limited range. Yet, this narrative has shifted slightly this year with the Angels.

Through 348 at-bats, here are Renfroe's numbers with the Angels:

• .239/.299/.431 (.730) 
• 16 home runs 
• wRC+ of 98, which is just below the league average
•  K% of 21.8%, just below the league average of 22.7%
• ISO of .193, which is .30 points higher than the league average

Much of these numbers fit Renfroe's career averages, but what is especially encouraging is that Renfroe has lowered his K% while maintaining above-average power.

The fascinating aspect of Renfroe's game is that he is more of a balanced right-handed corner outfielder hitting who is hovering toward having reverse splits rather than the lefty masher that those who follow the Twins have been clamoring for.

Let's look at Renfroe's splits with the Angels this season:

• Versus Left-Handed Pitching: 96 PA, .276/.323/.402 (.725), 24 H, five doubles, two home runs, 23 K, six walks.
• Versus Right-Handed Pitching: 294 PA, .241/.303/.467 (.770), 65 H, 19 doubles, 14 home runs, 61 K, 23 walks. 

The most logical explanation for Renfroe displaying reverse split tendencies is sample size. Renfroe has 198 more at-bats versus right-handed pitching, but that is more so because of matchups rather than platooning.

Like most other teams in Major League Baseball, the Angels have faced far more right-handed pitchers than left-handed pitchers, so there have been few opportunities for Renfroe to face left-handed pitching. Career-wise, Renfroe has fared extremely well when facing left-handed pitching in a larger sample size.

Here are Renfroe's career numbers versus left-handed pitching:

• 933 Plate Appearances
• .263/.344/.532 (.876)
• 214 H
• 99 BB
• 199 K
• 57 Home Runs
• 103 extra-base hits

Although Renfroe's numbers this season deviate from his career norms, Renfroe hits left-handed pitching very well while hitting for an immense amount of power, as illustrated by his career .532 slugging percentage when facing left-handed pitching. 

Renfroe is also a relatively serviceable defensive right fielder. So far in 2023, Renfroe has generated -3 Outs Above Average (OAA) between 726 innings in right field and 39 at first base. Most of his struggles are due to poor jumps and low sprint speed, but Renfroe is not a bad defender. Renfroe has elite arm strength, as evidenced by 95th-percentile arm strength, and makes up for his athletic shortcomings by being a threat to throw runners out, similar to Matt Wallner.

On July 26, the Los Angeles Angels traded prospects catching prospect Edgar Quero and pitching  prospect Ky Bush to the Chicago White Sox for starting pitcher Lucas Giolito and relief pitcher Reynaldo Lopez. Also, it has been reported that the Angels will not be trading two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani. These two moves signal the Angels, who currently hold a 21.8% chance of making the playoffs according to Fangraphs, are, in fact, going for it rather than selling at the upcoming trade deadline.

Whether this is the right decision or not for the Angels, it is improbable they will be trading any of their core pieces, including Renfroe. Although the Angels intend on contending, there is a chance they could make a "big leaguer for big leaguer" type trade like the Cleveland Guardians just did, trading shortstop Amed Rosario to the Los Angeles Dodgers for starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard.

Trading Renfroe could be in the Angels best interest as they have serviceable outfielders in Mickey Moniak, Taylor Ward, former Twins prospect Trey Cabbage, with Mike Trout and Jo Adell soon returning from the 10-day IL. 

The Angels need infield help, particularly at second base, so a Kyle Farmer for Renfroe trade could make sense. Farmer, 32, is on his final year of arbitration this upcoming offseason, so the Angels could elect to non-tender Farmer, theoretically making him a rental player just like Renfroe. 

One-for-one swaps like this are rare, but considering the Twins very recently traded relief pitcher Jorge López for relief pitcher Dylan Floro, trading Farmer for Renfroe would be another reasonable swap. Both the Angels and Twins are buying with the intent to contend, so trading Major League Caliber players for one another to patch weaknesses could be in both teams' best interests.

If the Twins elect not to include Farmer in a deal, there are other routes they could go down to acquire Renfroe, including prospect capital or other Major League caliber players.

How Would Renfroe Fit In With the Post-Deadline Twins?

The Twins offense has performed exceptionally well out of the All-Star Break, but this team still needs a right-handed hitting corner outfield.

If the Twins don't include Farmer in a trade, as I proposed earlier, other roster moves they could make to free up a spot for Renfroe include optioning Wallner or designating one of Joey Gallo or Donovan Solano for assignment. 

The most likely transaction is optioning Wallner to Triple-A St. Paul, but I argue the move the Twins should make is parting ways with Solano. 

Solano has been a cult hero of sorts for the Twins through the first 104 games of the season, but his performance has unfortunately significantly declined in the last 15 games hitting just .194/.333/.306 (.639) with only seven hits, zero home runs, and 13 strikeouts in 36 at-bats.

To further illustrate Solano's recent struggles, he is hitting just .077/.188/.077 (.265) over his last seven games with only one hit, zero home runs, and eight strikeouts in 13 at-bats.

Admittedly, both examples are small sample sizes, but Solano is a 35-year-old utility player with little to no defensive value and a rapidly declining offensive game. 

Parting with Solano and adding Renfroe to the mix would help the Twins in a multitude of ways. The most significant is that the Twins would finally have a serviceable right-handed hitting corner outfielder to platoon with Kepler, Gallo, Wallner, and Alex Kirilloff while opening up more opportunities for Kirilloff, Edouard Julien, and the soon-to-return Jorge Polanco and Royce Lewis in the infield. 

Many right-handed corner outfield options will be available at the upcoming trade deadline, but Renfroe is one the Twins best options. With Renfroe being on an expiring deal, the Twins would have to give up very little in a deal, and Renfroe would step in and immediately be one of if not the best corner outfielder on the Twins 26-man roster. 

Should the Twins trade for Renfroe? What corresponding move would you make if the Twins traded for Renfroe? Comment below.

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[DFlow]

He’s the right type of player to acquire but unlikely now given the Angels want to go for it. The ugly question coming up is who is going to have to leave the roster. With Wallner staying, we have an upcoming roster crunch with Polanco and Lewis returning shortly. Solano makes a lot of sense due to lack of positional flexibility but wouldn’t discount Farmer either. A SS needy team may come calling and Castro has been brilliant covering every position this year. 

[Mike Sixel]

No. 

[CRF]

No thanks.

[TwinsDr2021]

If the price is right (which IMO is some older relief pitcher in the low minors), I would do it. He seems like the type of player that may give the offense a spark.

[DJL44]

Renfroe for Gallo plus a prospect would be a coup. Renfroe for Kepler would help both teams.

[RpR]

31 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Renfroe for Gallo plus a prospect would be a coup. Renfroe for Kepler would help both teams.

Renfroe is a just plain BAD fielder; Wallner would probably be better out there than Renfroe and Wallner is below average.

[tony&rodney]

Seems like a fair idea with an outline that supports your plan. I'm thinking both Farmer and Solano could be moved to return useful players that help the Twins this year as well. I'm not in favor of Renfroe however.

[Dave The Dastardly]

"a traditional high strikeout power-hitting" player?

Don't we already have a half dozen high strikeout guys?

Who's next to consider? Sano?

[Tibs]

No

[jkcarew]

This is the kind of guy you add if you’re a great team on the verge of a pennant run. Just filling a couple small cracks…a veteran spot-starting, pinch-hitting, outfielder.

Just no, please.

[JD-TWINS]

Renfroe isn’t any better than taking a risk with our AAA RH hitting corner OF Kyle Garlick!! No real difference & much easier to execute.

Nobody is taking Joey Gallo in a trade for anyone/anything.

Kepler for Renfroe is nuts since we face 70% RH pitching at a minimum.

[PatPfund]

No. On so many levels. Renfro's having a down-ish year, strikes out a lot, and (this year) has reverse splits. Plus the most likely moves you mention, like trading Farmer or DFA'ing Solano (because he's had a bad couple weeks?) or sending Wallner down costs us either a good RH batter and excellent team player, or deletes a young player who has done nothing but produce when given the chance.

To add a fairly equivalent RH batter who is hitting like a lefty (that isn't as good as LH Wallner), and who likely has no future with the team while costing us  a prospect (or more) who might have a future?

The Twins biggest problem against lefties may well be they continue to sit their best LH hitters (like Julien, Kiriloff, and Wallner) instead of putting their best lineup on the field. Try that with the returned Polanco, and soon Royce Lewis, and keep the prospects. (Plus, DFA/trade Gallo, and put Byron on IL until he is healthy enough to play real baseball and open some slots for better players. Those two moves probably save 30 Ks a week.)

[DocBauer]

On the surface, he's a cheap rental that should actually cost less than Farmer, IMO. And he is the type of rental that would fit. But not only do I think the Angels don't want to move him at this time, but I actually think the Twins have Farmer in their plans for 2024. 

Very soon, the Twins will have both Lewis and Lee as viable backup SS options. And yes, Castro can even be an emergency option there, as can Polanco.  But that day isn't here yet. Farmer remains a solid, if not great hitter. And he's pretty solid defensively at 3 spots. And he's a good clubhouse guy as well. That's why I think he's in the 2024 plans.

And Solano having a couple bad weeks doesn't nearly cover all the positives he's brought to the lineup this season. And while he's not exactly great in the field anywhere you put him, he can adequately play 3 spots. I don't think he has a long term future with the Twins by any means, but I don't think he's going anywhere this year barring a sudden roster crunch where he just HAS to be the guy out. 

I'm not sure the trade market is going to be all that deep this year. Only a few teams are selling at this point. But things could...and probably will...pivot over the next few days.

I don't dislike Renfro as a player. Again, he actually fits for what this team is lacking. But I'm just not crazy about trading Farmer instead of a lower level prospect for his 2 months.

HUNCH: The Twins will gladly give up a lower level prospect or two for a solid RH OF rental. And if he "fits" he might be a re-sign. But I just have a hunch they are looking...if able...to make a move of Kepler/Larnach/Wallner and a Winder/Enlow kind of move for a younger OF with control who can also play CF. Maybe a RH, maybe a switch if available. And they might not pull it off. But I think that's what they are trying to do.

But I really, really don't want Wallner traded. I think that will come back to BITE US BIG TIME.

[TopGunn#22]

I'm with you on this Doc.  A deal involving Lane Thomas of the Nats would excite me more and the assets you mentioned could be in play.  I'm not against a Renfro addition, it would just depend on the cost.  It's time to move on from Solano and Gallo.  Neither one has a future with the Twins beyond this season and with Polanco and Lewis coming back Solano has no place.  I also firmly believe that the Twins have Farmer in their plans for 2024.  Solid "D" at SS, 2B & 3B and a dependable bat.  What's going to be interesting to me, is how Polanco settles in at 3B.  If he's O.K. there, I could see him playing there next year.  His value has cratered from a high somewhere between 45 and 36 on BBTV's to just 8.5.  Unless someone blows the Twins away with a trade it's better to hang onto him for the rest of this year and see what the off season brings.