What Good Does Selling Do?

[Greggory Masterson]

As we approach the deadline and the Minnesota Twins lead the AL Central despite only being a handful of games over .500, some fans are considering the value of selling high on some players. What can trade history tell us about that?

Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins are in a weird position. They lead a poor AL Central but are projected to have a record that rarely gets a team into the playoffs. Because of this, many fans are interested in trading away veterans on expiring contracts for prospect capital. Many teams will swap their veterans for prospects to ensure they don’t walk for free; the Rays are notorious for that, for instance.

It’s an understandable instinct. However, teams competing for a playoff spot rarely do it at the trade deadline. Current value is sometimes forgotten in the quest to retain as much value as possible on a player with one foot out the door. To draw a name out of a hat for no particular reason, as an example, Sonny Gray is valuable as a playoff starter, and he’ll make valuable starts down the stretch in the pennant race, even if he pitches elsewhere next year.

Beyond that value, we tend to view swaps for prospects with outsized optimism. When Jose Berrios was traded, the hope was that Simeon Woods Richardson could become another Berrios. However, that doesn’t always turn out. It’s good to have an eye on the future, but the value of the trade needs to outweigh the value of having the veteran during the most important games of the year. The teams without playoff aspirations don’t have to worry about that. Playoff-bound teams do.

With that in mind, it’s worth discussing the value that can come back in trade. Let’s take a look at the returns that the Twins have gotten from shipping players off at the deadline during the Falvey-Levine era. They've been moderately successful in selling at the deadline, but would that support an effort to cut loose some veterans before the stretch run?

Before we begin, some housekeeping. I provided stats for each player with their new team. Performance isn’t considered if they were again traded or signed elsewhere as free agents after the trade being discussed. Obviously, this analysis doesn’t include future performance, either. This information was gathered as a snapshot on July 17, 2023. Those with an * indicate that the player is still in the organization they were traded to, so the complete picture isn’t available.

I will also be providing some context for each trade. Comparing statistics does not necessarily indicate which team won the trade, so I have done my best to provide some information about the outcome and context. 

For an example of why comparing statistics isn’t ideal, let’s skip to the 2018 Ryan Pressly trade. Statistically, the Twins lost the trade. However, Pressly would not have been extended in Minnesota, and he brought his game to a new level after the trade—a level he probably wouldn’t have in Minnesota. He’s also been in Houston racking up value for six years. That level of performance wasn’t expected out of him, and getting back two Major League contributors in Jorge Alcala and Gilberto Celestino—even if they aren’t stars—is a favorable return for a relief pitcher, regardless of how good he is. There’s a gray area.

Without further ado, here’s my order, from most valuable return (with consideration for the quality of the player traded away) to least valuable.

1. 7/22/21: Minnesota acquires Joe Ryan* (286 IP, 112 ERA+, 4.3 bWAR), Drew Strotman (did not reach Minnesota) from Tampa Bay for Nelson Cruz (238 PA, 101 OPS+, 0.4 bWAR), Calvin Faucher* (40.1 IP, 74 ERA+, -0.5 bWAR), +4.4 bWAR for Minnesota.
This one hurt, as Cruz was a fan favorite and the leader of the greatest power offense in baseball history, but it’s turned out better than most could imagine. Although Strotman washed out of the organization in 2022, Ryan has emerged as a mid-rotation starter who continues to improve. To get Ryan, the Twins gave up two months of Cruz, who was merely league-average for the Rays, and Faucher has struggled during his two years of MLB experience.

2. 7/27/18: Minnesota acquires Jhoan Duran* (105 IP, 207 ERA+, 4.3 bWAR), Ernie De La Trinidad (did not reach Minnesota), Gabriel Maciel (did not reach Minnesota) from Arizona for Eduardo Escobar (1544 PA, 102 OPS+, 5.6 bWAR), -1.3 bWAR for Minnesota.
Escobar was a solid regular and fan favorite for the Twins on an expiring contract, and he signed a three-year extension with Arizona after the trade, continuing to be a contributor at multiple positions. De La Trinidad and Maciel are in independent ball and Oakland’s High-A team, respectively. Jhoan Duran has been an electric late-inning reliever since his debut in 2022, and he appears to be a fixture in the organization for the better part of the next decade.

3. 7/31/18: Minnesota acquires Logan Forsythe (205 PA, 81 OPS+, 0.3 bWAR), Luke Raley (did not reach Minnesota), Devin Smeltzer (140 IP, 106 ERA+, 1.5 bWAR) from Los Angeles (NL) for Brian Dozier (170 PA, 77 OPS+, 0.1 bWAR), +1.7 bWAR for Minnesota.
Brian Dozier was sadly on the wrong side of 30 and in the middle of a pedestrian year, and many saw that the end was near. Forsythe was acquired to finish the year in Dozier’s spot at second base, and Luke Raley was later traded back to LA in the Kenta Maeda trade. Devin Smeltzer was a feel-good story who filled a swingman role on some good Twins teams over four years.

4. 7/28/18: Minnesota acquires Gilberto Celestino* (409 PA, 70 OPS+, -0.3 bWAR), Jorge Alcala* (103 IP, 113 ERA+, 0.6 bWAR) from Houston for Ryan Pressly* (252.1 IP, 174 ERA+, 6.3 bWAR), -6 bWAR for Minnesota.
One that got away, Pressly has made two All-Star Games in Houston since the trade and the Astros extended him. Alcala has shown flashes as a late-inning arm, but his future is uncertain following season-ending elbow surgery in 2022. Celestino was rushed to the majors in 2021 and is now getting some much-needed time in AAA, though some believe he can still be a fourth outfielder.

5. 7/30/17: Minnesota acquires Zack Littell (63.2 IP, 99 ERA+, 0.2 bWAR), Dietrich Enns (4.0 IP, 71 ERA+, -0.1 bWAR) from New York (AL) for Jaime Garcia (37.1 IP, 94 ERA+, -0.1 bWAR), +0.1 bWAR for Minnesota.
After deciding that maybe they shouldn’t go for it, the Twins traded Jaime Garcia to New York and retained his salary. In return for 37 1/3 mediocre innings from Garcia, who retired the following year, Minnesota received Zack Littell and Dietrich Enns. Littell was a solid enough reliever for three years until being designated for assignment after 2020, and Enns has been unremarkable outside of a pop-up year in 2021 for Tampa Bay.

6. 7/30/21: Minnesota acquires Simeon Woods Richardson * (9.2 IP, 67 ERA+, -0.2 bWAR), Austin Martin* (has not reached Minnesota) from Toronto for Jose Berrios* (355.2 IP, 94 ERA+, 2.6 bWAR), -0.9 bWAR for Minnesota.
We’re years away from knowing who won this trade, and it could get much better or much worse, hence its middling position in this ranking. Jose Berrios quickly signed a seven-year, $131 million extension with Toronto, but has struggled mightily in 2022 before his extension kicked in, and he’s returned to form in 2023. Woods Richardson has brief experience as a spot starter and long reliever, and Martin is currently on rehabbing a UCL injury following a disappointing 2022 in AA.

7. 7/30/21: Minnesota acquires John Gant (33.2 IP, 76 ERA+, -0.3 bWAR), Evan Sisk (did not reach Minnesota) from Cincinnati for J.A. Happ (54 IP, 98 ERA+, 0.7 bWAR), -1.0 bWAR for Minnesota.
This trade was a salary dump to salvage some money from Happ. Gant came over to offset some of the salary and fill a rotation slot, and he was not offered arbitration after the season. Evan Sisk was part of the trade that brought Michael A. Taylor to Minnesota prior to 2023. It was impressive to get anything of value in the trade, given Happ's struggles in Minnesota.

8. 7/30/18: Minnesota acquires Tyler Austin (141 PA, 110 OPS+, 0.3 bWAR), Luis Rijo (did not reach Minnesota) from New York (AL) for Lance Lynn (54.1 IP, 102 ERA+, 0.3 bWAR), +0.0 bWAR for Minnesota.
It was time for Lynn to go. The surly man did not perform in Minnesota, but he has been a quality, reliable pitcher outside of his four months in a Twins uniform. Rijo washed out of Minnesota's system after 2022, and Austin spent time at first base and designated hitter but was again traded in 2019 after C.J. Cron emerged as a better first baseman. It was good to get any big league asset out of this trade.

9. 7/30/21: Minnesota acquires Alex Scherff (has not reached Minnesota) from Boston for Hansel Robles (49.2 IP, 95 ERA+, -0.3 bWAR), +0.3 bWAR for Minnesota.
Robles had a rocky half-season in Minnesota as a setup man in a poor bullpen, so the team was likely to get much of anything in return. Scherff is currently at Wichita, but his performance has not been anything to be excited about from a minor league reliever.

10.   7/30/18: Minnesota acquires Chase De Jong (18.2 IP, 84 ERA+, 0.0 bWAR), Ryan Costello (did not reach Minnesota) from Seattle for Zach Duke (14.2 IP, 75 ERA+, 0.0 bWAR), +0.0 bWAR for Minnesota.
Duke was having a decent-ish year as a middle reliever. For the last two months of 2018 Duke, the Twins got 18.2 innings of Chase De Jong, who had a good 2022 in Pittsburgh but has otherwise been unremarkable.

11. 7/31/17: Minnesota acquires Tyler Watson (did not reach Minnesota) from Washington for Brandon Kintzler (68.2 IP, 123 ERA+, 1.2 bWAR), -1.2 bWAR for Minnesota.
Brandon Kintzler was a great story for the Twins, improbably rising to become an All-Star closer in 2017. The Twins traded him and his expiring contract for Watson, who never made the majors. Washington extended Kintzler on a two-year deal, but he was traded to the Cubs in 2018 for future Twin Jhon Romero.

12. 8/9/18: Minnesota acquires Dakota Chalmers (did not reach Minnesota), from Oakland for Fernando Rodney (35.0 IP, 70 ERA+, -0.3 bWAR), +0.3 bWAR for Minnesota.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: the Twins traded their closer at the deadline. Pulling an Oakland on Oakland, they got back righty Dakota Chalmers , a lottery ticket who struggled with command and is now in independent ball.

13. 7/30/21: Minnesota acquires Stevie Berman (did not reach Minnesota) from Los Angeles (NL) for Andrew Vasquez (1.2 IP, 999 ERA+, 0.1 bWAR), -0.1 bWAR for Minnesota.
Despite the excitement surrounding Andrew Vasquez as a prospect, he was never able to stick with Minnesota and was flipped for a depth catcher who was waived and is now in Toronto’s system.

How do you feel about the Twins' ability to recoup value on expiring or soon-to-expire contracts? Do you feel these names should be in a different order?

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[SkyBlueWaters]

When you have a clearcut need, a deficiency to remedy, trades at the deadline can make a big difference. For example, our deals for pitching at prior deadlines.

Our issue this season is under-performing stars. I don't see a good trade to fix that.

I like our young players. I don't know how much trade value someone like Kepler might have; in general, any deal including our veterans would be trading them at low value, not high value. (For the opposite, dealing at high value, note how we benefited from dealing Nelson Cruz--in his time, a wonderful Twin, but his numbers dropped precipitously after he went to TBR.)

I think we hope out hitters figure it our in the remaining 60+ games.

 

[DJL44]

They're definitely not sellers this year. They would need to go 0-7 this week and even then they'd only be a couple games behind Cleveland.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, SkyBlueWaters said:

Our issue this season is under-performing stars. I don't see a good trade to fix that

David Popkins plus Jake Rucker to the Rangers for their hitting coach? 

[Kenny Powers]

Isn't there a middle ground though?  Can we deal an established vet at a position of strength to get some prospects back?

You can't mess with Julien right now.  And we seem to have plenty additional depth alternatives at 2nd base including:  Farmer, Castro, and Solono.  Plus some interesting guys pretty close in the minors like:  Prato, Martin, Severino and Schobel....  I realize it's unlikely, but I'd be totally fine dealing Polanco for prospects this point.  I think it could be a win-win trade out there as (when healthy) he can still be a very effective player.  But I also feel we have plenty of good internal replacement options so he really wouldn't be missed.  Again - I realize it's not likely because it's rare to break up the band when you are in contention.  But he's starting to block guys.  I'd rather deal Polanco at this point than the next Spencer Steer.  Julien seems to have Wally Pipped him at this point in my mind.

[Fatbat]

awe memory lane! Its cool how players come and go as life moves on! I dont think we will sell much this year as we are in a power position that we haven’t really been in for decades. Our pitching is solid. But with a hole or two that probably won’t get filled via trade.  We have a weird outfield mess of vets and youngsters that might be ok in October.  The infield has an even stranger combo of vets and injuries and youngsters. If the right deal goes down, so be it but don’t expect much change via trade this year. The biggest question, does any team want to match up with our pitching in the first round? 

[darin617]

If they can get a haul for Sonny Gray I wouldn't pass it up. 

Twins will win a bad division and get swept by a wild card team.

Only other option is to keep Gray and extend a qualifying offer and get a pick when he rejects it. I would rather take the prospects that are MLB ready over a pick any day. It would be different if the Twins were playing like leaders.

[Karbo]

I can't see any meaningful trade coming this year. I don't see them trading Gray as they feel they are a real contender, and he is the one who would bring a good haul. Now I could see them making a minor trade or so. Maeda, Kepler, Gallo, Keuchel, Varland and SWR could bring some value back in some sort of package deal, but I'm not sure what kind of value would come back in return. The real need as I see it is an OF that hits lefties, but what would need to be given up?

[Cory Engelhardt]

13 hours ago, Kenny Powers said:

Isn't there a middle ground though?  Can we deal an established vet at a position of strength to get some prospects back?

You can't mess with Julien right now.  And we seem to have plenty additional depth alternatives at 2nd base including:  Farmer, Castro, and Solono.  Plus some interesting guys pretty close in the minors like:  Prato, Martin, Severino and Schobel....  I realize it's unlikely, but I'd be totally fine dealing Polanco for prospects this point.  I think it could be a win-win trade out there as (when healthy) he can still be a very effective player.  But I also feel we have plenty of good internal replacement options so he really wouldn't be missed.  Again - I realize it's not likely because it's rare to break up the band when you are in contention.  But he's starting to block guys.  I'd rather deal Polanco at this point than the next Spencer Steer.  Julien seems to have Wally Pipped him at this point in my mind.

I don't see it happening. He is coming off injury, and you would absolutely be selling him at a low point. I don't see that happening.

This offseason, sure. Not in the next week or so. Hopefully he can get healthy and have a strong rest of the season/playoffs. Then it's REALLY interesting this offseason.

[Trov]

I am not a fan of half-selling, meaning you only are trading away lower value trade chips.  It normally results in lower value returns.  For the most part, the players listed in the selling were players on lower value, outside Berrios. Jury still out on SWR and Martin, but their stock is falling fast.  However, the rest of the trades are pretty equal or tip in favor of Twins.  Ryan and Duran are great, and what we gave up for them were minimal at the time.  Selling can bring in big talent, or at minimum supplement what you need.  Rarely will a pen guy bring in big returns, but a lottery ticket of a young kid that may develop.  Position guys or starter tend to bring in bigger prospects, but there are misses. 

I see no point in "selling" this year.  I could see, if you are sold we can fill the last spot in rotation with some in AAA, trading Gray for the right deal.  He is doing well, unlikely to sign with Twins, basing this on some of his comments about how they run things.  Being we only need 4 guys in playoffs, if you are sold that the 4 we would most likely have, assuming health, and a good deal is offered, why not pull off what Cleveland has done. 

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, darin617 said:

If they can get a haul for Sonny Gray I wouldn't pass it up. 

Twins will win a bad division and get swept by a wild card team.

Only other option is to keep Gray and extend a qualifying offer and get a pick when he rejects it. I would rather take the prospects that are MLB ready over a pick any day. It would be different if the Twins were playing like leaders.

Gray has a 4.00 plus ERA since May 1.

He’s got 4 wins on the year and none since late April.

He’s a free agent in 10 weeks.

Why would he bring a haul? Nobody is going to trade an MLB ready prospect for a 2 month rental. Other than CF & Catcher, I don’t think we have any needs in the organization. We’d end up getting 2-3 guys that will be on a list in 5 years from now & they will have played zero innings for Twins……..we should use him through his contract to try and get another 11 starts where he keeps us in the game most times. If, somehow, he turns it up down the stretch we may even try to sign him for a couple years.

[Blyleven2011]

You don't always hit pay dirt , but if you don't  try it will never happen  ....

I would be in favor of trading sonny Gray  for a substantial prospect and some A ball players ...

We traded berrios for 2 AA prospects  , has it worked out , not yet , nor has it been  a flop as of yet ...

Kepler or Gallo  would be nice to part with  , Kepler has more trade value but is a streaky hitter ,,

Gallo , I wouldn't think you would get much  ...

Polanco is valuable to the twins  and I wouldn't be shocked  if he was traded regardless of his low value coming from an injury ...

I'm not afraid to take chances and let the young players and prospects play their game ...

[Mike Sixel]

5 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Gray has a 4.00 plus ERA since May 1.

He’s got 4 wins on the year and none since late April.

He’s a free agent in 10 weeks.

Why would he bring a haul? Nobody is going to trade an MLB ready prospect for a 2 month rental. Other than CF & Catcher, I don’t think we have any needs in the organization. We’d end up getting 2-3 guys that will be on a list in 5 years from now & they will have played zero innings for Twins……..we should use him through his contract to try and get another 11 starts where he keeps us in the game most times. If, somehow, he turns it up down the stretch we may even try to sign him for a couple years.

Because he's likely the best SP available this year for trade. People trade great or very good prospects for SP at the deadline most years (when there are actually good SPs available). You literally have no idea if those guys would be good here or not.....

That said, at this point, I don't think they are selling at all (maybe Gallo, but that's to add Wallner full time, if done).

[Doctor Gast]

Thank you Greg. It was a very sad day when they traded Dozier. Dozier gave his heart & soul to the Twins, often playing hurt, What hurt more was that they got nothing from the talent rich Dodgers. IMO Dozier's decline wasn't age. it was a broken heart. He wanted to be lifelong Twin, they should accommendated him.

If they had handled Martin differently he'd be up here already. If they stick with Martin, he'll give great dividends as also SWR eventually contribute.

Looking back this FO hasn't done as well as I thought in this area.