One Twins Prospect Shares Similarities With Brian Dozier

[Cody Christie]

Middle and late-round draft picks are the lifeblood of an organization. One Twins draft pick from 2019 might be following in the footsteps of a former Twins great.

Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins selected Brian Dozier in the eighth round of the 2009 MLB Draft from the University of Southern Mississippi. He played shortstop in college, and the Twins continued to use him at up-the-middle defensive positions throughout his tenure in the organization. Dozier hit for a high average in the minors but failed to hit double-digit home runs in any season. His powerful swing only appeared after he made his big-league debut. 

Dozier became the poster child for a late bloomer. In seven seasons in Minnesota, he hit .248/.325/.447 (.772) with a 109 OPS+. He made an All-Star team, won a Gold Glove, and averaged 35 home runs from 2015-17. He was a leader on and off the field for the Twins, even though the club struggled through much of his tenure. Like Dozier, another mid-round pick is discovering his powerful swing as he gets closer to the big-league level. 

The Twins drafted Anthony Prato in the seventh round of the 2019 MLB Draft from the University of Connecticut. In three collegiate seasons, he hit .315/.401/.407 (.808) with 49 extra-base hits in 178 games. He played shortstop throughout college and saw time at second base and outfield during his summer league play. From the Twins' perspective, Prato looked like an experienced player who could play an up-the-middle defensive position with high on-base skills. His power wasn't evident in college, but players that make enough solid contact can add power later in their careers. 

After signing, Prato made his professional debut in Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids, hitting .268/.373/.357 (.730) with ten extra-base hits in 47 games. Coming out of the pandemic, he played at three different levels, with over half his playing time coming in Fort Myers. In 47 games, he hit .260/.403/.301 (.705) with six doubles. Prato dealt with some injuries that season but continued to show his high on-base skills from his college career. Last season, Prato played in over 50 games for the first time in his professional career, which helped him to set career highs in multiple offensive categories. In 132 games, he hit .285/.383/.444 (.827) with 48 extra-base hits between High- and Double-A. It seemed like Prato was poised to break out in 2023. 

The Twins sent Prato to Wichita to start the 2023 season, and he struggled to get out of the gate. In 43 games, he hit .171/.305/.248 (.553) with five extra-base hits and a 35-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Despite his poor performance, the Saints had an infield need, so Prato was promoted to Triple-A. Over the last 28 games, something has clicked for Prato, and he has been one of St. Paul's best hitters. Since being promoted, he has gone 29-for-91 (.319 BA) with ten doubles, six home runs, and a 1.070 OPS. Even Dozier didn't have a breakout performance like Prato at Triple-A. 

Defensively, Prato is spending the majority of his innings at second base. However, he has played over 75 innings at third base, shortstop, and left field in 2023. Defensive flexibility is a trait many big league clubs value, especially for players with Prato's skillset. Dozier followed a similar defensive path by playing shortstop early in his professional career and started playing other defensive positions when he got closer to Target Field. 

Dozier debuted with the Twins when he was 25 years old, so it took him time to develop. Prato turned 25 in May and has reached another offensive level with the Saints. There are other second basemen ahead of him on the organizational depth chart, but ignoring his offensive output for the Saints might get tricky. The Twins would love for Prato to develop into the next Dozier, but it seems more likely for him to be a utility player in the near future. 

Do you think Prato can have a similar career to Dozier? What is his ceiling? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Karbo]

A right handed hitter? If he can hit lefties put him in the OF!

[goulik]

Thank you for the write up. Prato has been off my radar but if he can sustain this in St Paul, we should all be paying more attention.

[FlyingFinn]

No, I don't think he is the next Dozier. I think Schobel has a chance to be that. Prato hitting .171 at Wichita is a huge red flag to me. Others disagree but I don't think the Twins see him as a future MLB player at this point. He does fit the utility role. For next year, he will behind numerous guys in that area - Martin, Helman and of course, Willi Castro with the Twins. Prove me wrong Mr. Prato!

[Doctor Gast]

I think there might be some resemblance, I haven't seen Prado enough to really know. What I valued in Dozier was his grit, love for the game & his team. Even for Prado to be a utility player it'd be an up-hill battle.

[Major League Ready]

39 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

No, I don't think he is the next Dozier. I think Schobel has a chance to be that. Prato hitting .171 at Wichita is a huge red flag to me. Others disagree but I don't think the Twins see him as a future MLB player at this point. He does fit the utility role. For next year, he will behind numerous guys in that area - Martin, Helman and of course, Willi Castro with the Twins. Prove me wrong Mr. Prato!

Why focus on 156 ABs this year at AA when he has hit the rest of his Milb career, including hitting .294 / .403 / .419 at AA the year before.  He is behind Martin, Hellman, and Castro at this moment but sustaining his current pace could change that positioning.  It also not like we only need one utility guy.  Theoretically, you could have four of them and there are always injuries to cover.  

[High heat]

Nice to have a good month and a half at AAA, hopefully the power isn’t a mirage.  The Twins turn out second baseman like butter.  Maybe another team sees him as a spencer steers and he is a good piece to move at the deadline.

[2wins87]

Dozier was not a big guy but he did have probably two inches and at least a dozen pounds of muscle on Prato (at least as he's currently built). Dozier was able to get to power with more of a slide step than a full big leg kick, and probably that helped him to maintain his timing and good levels of contact.

I do worry about Prato's size and big leg kick translating to the majors where pitchers are generally better at changing speeds and throwing off timing. He's shown a decent knack for contact despite it in the minors, but even now the power is kind of marginal and I do have a hard time seeing him getting to Dozier level power.

I still see more of a utility profile, especially if the strikeouts were to tick up a bit without added power, but as long as he keeps producing I don't see why he couldn't be a major leaguer given the right opportunity. 

 

[TwinsDr2021]

I get the comparison, but it seems like a stretch, first Prado will already be a year older than Dozier (assuming he isn't called up this year), the Twins were not in compete mode at all. 2011(63-99), 2012(66-96) Dozier's first year, 2013 (66-96), 2014 (70-92), Dozier was terrible in 2012 in 84 games, no chance a team trying to compete is going to give a 26 year old rookie that kind of leash. So IMO he just won't have the opportunity that Dozier had unless he is traded to a team trying to rebuild and can give him the chance to succeed like those terrible early 2010's Twins.

 

[arby58]

10 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

It also not like we only need one utility guy.  Theoretically, you could have four of them and there are always injuries to cover.  

Only so many slots on the 40-man roster, and four of them aren't going to be utility guys. 

[JD-TWINS]

Seems he is developing into a decent trade piece by this time next year or if he finishes hot, maybe as part of a package to another team this winter?

[Major League Ready]

46 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Only so many slots on the 40-man roster, and four of them aren't going to be utility guys. 

There were 3 utility guys all year.  (Farmer / Castro and Gordon)  Four, if they are the right four is not that big stretch and three vs four does not negate potential value in Prato.

[arby58]

On 7/23/2023 at 8:11 PM, Major League Ready said:

There were 3 utility guys all year.  (Farmer / Castro and Gordon)  Four, if they are the right four is not that big stretch and three vs four does not negate potential value in Prato.

They didn't sign Farmer as a utility guy - they signed him because they believed Correa was gone.  You could say Solano was a 'utility guy' but the reality is they signed him to be a right-handed platoon player, which was situationally necessary. 

[Major League Ready]

3 minutes ago, arby58 said:

They didn't sign Farmer as a utility guy - they signed him because they believed Correa was gone.  You could say Solano was a 'utility guy' but the reality is they signed him to be a right-handed platoon player, which was situationally necessary. 

I am not sure how the pretense under which they signed him has anything to do with this discussion which is how many "utility guys" could conceivably make sense to roster or in a broader sense have in the system.

[nicksaviking]

A strong BB% is one of the best indicators for a high floor. Things are going well now, but he'd be my first choice for the next opening at the MLB level. This team's success has largely been built on the strong on base skills of Kirilloff, Julien, Jeffers and Wallner. I'll take more of that.

[Mike Sixel]

I wish he'd come up instead of Larnach... And that he was playing third.

It's hard to see how he fits on a healthy twins roster, with Julien, Lee, Lewis, Castro. Not to mention Martin and Schoebel. And if they keep polanco. 

[arby58]

On 7/25/2023 at 4:37 PM, Major League Ready said:

I am not sure how the pretense under which they signed him has anything to do with this discussion which is how many "utility guys" could conceivably make sense to roster or in a broader sense have in the system.

You list him as a utility guy, but the Twins decided to bring him onto the roster to be their starting shortstop. Lots of guys have flexibility - are you going to refer to Kirilloff or Gallo as 'utility guys' because they can play first base or the outfield? What matters is the role the team believes they fill, and they are not going to keep four guys with no defined role. 

[Major League Ready]

5 minutes ago, arby58 said:

You list him as a utility guy, but the Twins decided to bring him onto the roster to be their starting shortstop. Lots of guys have flexibility - are you going to refer to Kirilloff or Gallo as 'utility guys' because they can play first base or the outfield? What matters is the role the team believes they fill, and they are not going to keep four guys with no defined role. 

What difference does their original intention make?  We are talking about his roster position TODAY and going forward.  The intent when they signed him has absolutely nothing to do with the current discussion.