Gallo and Arraez

[jorgenswest]

Gallo’s .781 OPS is almost the same as the .795 they lost from 2022 Arraez. It would have been reasonable to think he could be around that .795 and replace what was lost.

Gallo and Arraez have very different paths to their OPS. Assuming they are nearly the same, are both paths equally valuable to winning games in this Twins line up?

[Brock Beauchamp]

22 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Gallo’s .781 OPS is almost the same as the .795 they lost from 2022 Arraez. It would have been reasonable to think he could be around that .795 and replace what was lost.

Gallo and Arraez have very different paths to their OPS. Assuming they are nearly the same, are both paths equally valuable to winning games in this Twins line up?

No, Arraez is more useful given the makeup of this lineup. It's possible that in a more balanced lineup, they're closer to equal but this lineup needs baserunners and people who can make contact regularly instead of leaving people stranded in scoring position with fewer than two outs over and over again.

[Riverbrian]

15 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Gallo’s .781 OPS is almost the same as the .795 they lost from 2022 Arraez. It would have been reasonable to think he could be around that .795 and replace what was lost.

Gallo and Arraez have very different paths to their OPS. Assuming they are nearly the same, are both paths equally valuable to winning games in this Twins line up?

In this lineup? 

IMO... No... they are not equally valuable. We have plenty of players who hit home runs and strikeout a lot in THIS lineup. We need some players who can keep the line moving if we ever start a line.

Gallo is much more valuable with Arraez type players surrounding him. Without players like Arraez surrounding him... Gallo is just the clown with the most makeup. 

Taking Gallo's current 2023 numbers after 92 games. If he remains at the current pace... Gallo will finish with about 67 hits.

Arraez had 173 hits in 2022. That is 106 more hits keeping the line moving. Arraez would be 2.5 times more valuable to this lineup. 

 

[Danchat]

Absolutely not - OPS is not a perfect stat and it doesn't properly encapsulate Arraez's value and Gallo's problems. It doesn't account for run creation, and too harshly penalizes hitters who hit plenty of singles.

Case in point - Ichiro Suzuki has a career .757 OPS, even just including his prime years it's about .800 OPS. Old friend Kennys Vargas, a similar power-only / K heavy profile to Gallo has a career .748 OPS, and even a  .788 OPS in his last two years in the MLB. One dimensional power hitters are given too much value from it, while OBP machines who take tons of singles and walks like Suzuki and Arraez get penalized for that.

[Nine of twelve]

Echoing Danchat, OPS is not perfect. IMHO, it overweights slugging and underweights OBP. What makes it useful and widely cited is that it gives a general idea of how well a player hits and it's easy and convenient to calculate.

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

In this lineup? 

IMO... No... they are not equally valuable. We have plenty of players who hit home runs and strikeout a lot in THIS lineup. We need some players who can keep the line moving if we ever start a line.

Gallo is much more valuable with Arraez type players surrounding him. Without players like Arraez surrounding him... Gallo is just the clown with the most makeup. 

Taking Gallo's current 2023 numbers after 92 games. If he remains at the current pace... Gallo will finish with about 67 hits.

Arraez had 173 hits in 2022. That is 106 more hits keeping the line moving. Arraez would be 2.5 times more valuable to this lineup. 

 

Contextually in this lineup, I agree with your answer that 2022 Arraez would be more valuable than 2023 Gallo, but I don't agree with your math. I don't think its anywhere close to 2.5 times different. 

First, it's not apples-to-apples to compare the hit total of a guy who got 3.72 plate appearances per game (Arraez) with a guy who's gotten 2.54 plate appearances per game. Give Gallo the same number of opportunities, and those 67 hits become 98 hits. 

Second, while 98 is still significantly below Arraez's 173, a hit by Gallo is worth much more than a hit by Arraez. For example, 42 percent of Gallo's hits have resulted in an instantaneous run (by homer). So extrapolating, 98 hits would include 41 homers for Gallo, compared to the eight Arraez provided. Said another way, the average Arraez hit went for 1.33 bases, whereas the average Gallo hit has gone for 2.53 bases, so a Gallo hit is nearly twice as valuable. Said still another way, a runner on first has a good chance of scoring on a Gallo hit, but will rarely do so on an Arraez hit. A runner on second may score on an Arraez hit, but will almost always score on a hit by Gallo. 

Your 2.5 times was pretty rudimentary, so I'll go another rudimentary direction. If Arraez has a (173/98 =) 1.76 advantage in hits, but his hits are only (1.33/2.53=) 53 percent as valuable, he's only 93 percent as valuable as Gallo. (I've also ignored that Gallo has walked in 13 percent of his plate appearances, compared to Arraez's 8.3. Over the 603 plate appearances 2022 Arraez had, 2023 Gallo gets an additional 30 walks, which is fairly significant.) 

So again, I agree that the context tilts in Arraez's favor, but I don't think the difference is that large. Perceptually it is, because Gallo frustrates us so much with strikeouts, but last night's eighth-inning at bat is also an example of the massive woot-woots that are much more likely to come with Gallo.*

*I will use much less math in the game thread. 

[USAFChief]

27 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

Echoing Danchat, OPS is not perfect. IMHO, it overweights slugging and underweights OBP. What makes it useful and widely cited is that it gives a general idea of how well a player hits and it's easy and convenient to calculate.

OPS also assumes all OBP is created equally, which isn't true.

Getting on base via a hit is much more valuable than via a walk. Even a single helps create more runs than a walk. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

54 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Absolutely not - OPS is not a perfect stat and it doesn't properly encapsulate Arraez's value and Gallo's problems. It doesn't account for run creation, and too harshly penalizes hitters who hit plenty of singles.

Case in point - Ichiro Suzuki has a career .757 OPS, even just including his prime years it's about .800 OPS. Old friend Kennys Vargas, a similar power-only / K heavy profile to Gallo has a career .748 OPS, and even a  .788 OPS in his last two years in the MLB. One dimensional power hitters are given too much value from it, while OBP machines who take tons of singles and walks like Suzuki and Arraez get penalized for that.

Which is why something like wRC+ would be far more useful in this situation, which has Arraez much more valuable than Gallo.

[IndianaTwin]

4 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Which is why something like wRC+ would be far more useful in this situation, which has Arraez much more valuable than Gallo.

Is there a way to find wRC+ on baseball-reference.com? 

[Brock Beauchamp]

55 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Is there a way to find wRC+ on baseball-reference.com? 

It’s a FanGraphs stat. OPS+ is the BR version and the two metrics are rarely out of sync with one another. 

[tony&rodney]

There are so many statistics and variable ways to judge baseball players. The win stat for pitchers has been totally trashed it seems, but not the L. Recently, Twins Daily had a post concerning batting average and whether it was among the most meaningless of stats. WAR gets used quite often to discuss financial value of any given player.

I'm not opposed to any statistic and in fact used my own as a coach in an attempt to evaluate at bats, plays in the field, base running, and pitching in an objective manner. Experienced eyes do the job too.

OPS is about as valuable as wins for a pitcher or batting average. Arraez made the All Star game, Gallo is fighting to keep his job. There is no comparison between the value of these two players. You could not find a manager, coach, or player in baseball who would pick Gallo ahead of Arraez. That said, the comment that a handful of Arraez types might be complemented nicely with a Joey Gallo in the lineup sounds good.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

Contextually in this lineup, I agree with your answer that 2022 Arraez would be more valuable than 2023 Gallo, but I don't agree with your math. I don't think its anywhere close to 2.5 times different. 

First, it's not apples-to-apples to compare the hit total of a guy who got 3.72 plate appearances per game (Arraez) with a guy who's gotten 2.54 plate appearances per game. Give Gallo the same number of opportunities, and those 67 hits become 98 hits. 

Second, while 98 is still significantly below Arraez's 173, a hit by Gallo is worth much more than a hit by Arraez. For example, 42 percent of Gallo's hits have resulted in an instantaneous run (by homer). So extrapolating, 98 hits would include 41 homers for Gallo, compared to the eight Arraez provided. Said another way, the average Arraez hit went for 1.33 bases, whereas the average Gallo hit has gone for 2.53 bases, so a Gallo hit is nearly twice as valuable. Said still another way, a runner on first has a good chance of scoring on a Gallo hit, but will rarely do so on an Arraez hit. A runner on second may score on an Arraez hit, but will almost always score on a hit by Gallo. 

Your 2.5 times was pretty rudimentary, so I'll go another rudimentary direction. If Arraez has a (173/98 =) 1.76 advantage in hits, but his hits are only (1.33/2.53=) 53 percent as valuable, he's only 93 percent as valuable as Gallo. (I've also ignored that Gallo has walked in 13 percent of his plate appearances, compared to Arraez's 8.3. Over the 603 plate appearances 2022 Arraez had, 2023 Gallo gets an additional 30 walks, which is fairly significant.) 

So again, I agree that the context tilts in Arraez's favor, but I don't think the difference is that large. Perceptually it is, because Gallo frustrates us so much with strikeouts, but last night's eighth-inning at bat is also an example of the massive woot-woots that are much more likely to come with Gallo.*

*I will use much less math in the game thread. 

Good Post

I understand everything you are saying and I'm happy to take your contextual agreement and put in my pocket. 

My number was rudimentary to just make a statement that this team really need some hitters who are more Arraez-ish and less Gallo-ish and you understood that. 

I won't argue your numbers with one exception.

You can't give Gallo the same number of opportunities that Arraez got. 😉

There is a reason that Arraez averaged 3.72 PA's over 162 games and Gallo only averaged 2.53. 

Dare I say that player value is a pretty good explanation that there is such a disparity in PA's per 162 games.  

[IndianaTwin]

13 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Good Post

I understand everything you are saying and I'm happy to take your contextual agreement and put in my pocket. 

My number was rudimentary to just make a statement that this team really need some guys who can move the line.

I won't argue your numbers with one exception.

You can't give Gallo the same number of opportunities that Arraez got. 😉

There is a reason that Arraez averaged 3.72 PA's over 162 games and Gallo only averaged 2.53. 

Dare I say that player value is a pretty good explanation that there is such a disparity in PA's.  

I don't disagree that PAs is an indicator of ability, but it also depends on context. Arraez is the type of player that bats leadoff (and he did a lot), so that in itself typically creates extra plate appearances compared to a power hitter. And if this year's team had the number of injuries last year's did, Gallo would have more plate appearances than he does. 

I was approaching it as, "If everything else stayed the same and you gave 2022 Arraez the plate appearances that 2023 Gallo has gotten, would the team end up with more runs?" 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

I don't disagree that PAs is an indicator of ability, but it also depends on context. Arraez is the type of player that bats leadoff (and he did a lot), so that in itself typically creates extra plate appearances compared to a power hitter. And if this year's team had the number of injuries last year's did, Gallo would have more plate appearances than he does. 

I was approaching it as, "If everything else stayed the same and you gave 2022 Arraez the plate appearances that 2023 Gallo has gotten, would the team end up with more runs?" 

PA's are indeed an indicator of ability along with health because being healthy also has value even in it's unpredictableness. 

Or... in the case of Kepler... PA's are an indicator of... I don't know... payroll? being a nice guy from Germany? 😁

I understood your approach and give you deserved respect for it. I've been singing the opportunity song for years. If there is one thing that will drive me absolutely crazy... it's sub-par performance getting opportunity after opportunity. 

Personally, I like teams that clear the fences because like you said... that 3 run homer is a nice crooked number. Why make 10 trips to the car to take the groceries in when you can bring them all in at once...  but... I prefer the not making of outs over all and I hope to take the field with a team that is balanced. Our Twins just ain't balanced. 

The 2023 average OBP across baseball is .320. If you sort the Twins by Plate Appearances. 7 out of our top 9 have below league average OBP. It's quite possible that we are playing the wrong people. I say that without knowing who the right people are. 

In the context of the 2023 Twins. I'm willing to cut Gallo for a player who will bring a .321 OBP to the yard with him. 😀

 

[Doctor Wu]

13 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Contextually in this lineup, I agree with your answer that 2022 Arraez would be more valuable than 2023 Gallo, but I don't agree with your math. I don't think its anywhere close to 2.5 times different. 

First, it's not apples-to-apples to compare the hit total of a guy who got 3.72 plate appearances per game (Arraez) with a guy who's gotten 2.54 plate appearances per game. Give Gallo the same number of opportunities, and those 67 hits become 98 hits. 

Second, while 98 is still significantly below Arraez's 173, a hit by Gallo is worth much more than a hit by Arraez. For example, 42 percent of Gallo's hits have resulted in an instantaneous run (by homer). So extrapolating, 98 hits would include 41 homers for Gallo, compared to the eight Arraez provided. Said another way, the average Arraez hit went for 1.33 bases, whereas the average Gallo hit has gone for 2.53 bases, so a Gallo hit is nearly twice as valuable. Said still another way, a runner on first has a good chance of scoring on a Gallo hit, but will rarely do so on an Arraez hit. A runner on second may score on an Arraez hit, but will almost always score on a hit by Gallo. 

Your 2.5 times was pretty rudimentary, so I'll go another rudimentary direction. If Arraez has a (173/98 =) 1.76 advantage in hits, but his hits are only (1.33/2.53=) 53 percent as valuable, he's only 93 percent as valuable as Gallo. (I've also ignored that Gallo has walked in 13 percent of his plate appearances, compared to Arraez's 8.3. Over the 603 plate appearances 2022 Arraez had, 2023 Gallo gets an additional 30 walks, which is fairly significant.) 

So again, I agree that the context tilts in Arraez's favor, but I don't think the difference is that large. Perceptually it is, because Gallo frustrates us so much with strikeouts, but last night's eighth-inning at bat is also an example of the massive woot-woots that are much more likely to come with Gallo.*

*I will use much less math in the game thread. 

massive woot-woots

I love that term! Should be the name of a new band!

[Brock Beauchamp]

17 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

OPS is about as valuable as wins for a pitcher or batting average. Arraez made the All Star game, Gallo is fighting to keep his job. There is no comparison between the value of these two players. You could not find a manager, coach, or player in baseball who would pick Gallo ahead of Arraez. That said, the comment that a handful of Arraez types might be complemented nicely with a Joey Gallo in the lineup sounds good.

I rather strongly disagree with this. OPS is flawed but is the best traditional metric to display offensive performance, whereas batting average is only a slice of OPS and pitcher wins are almost entirely useless except at the top or bottom quartiles of outcomes.

But OPS can lead to inaccurate analysis if used outside the context of era. One needs to have at least a general idea of league average performance for OPS to have real meaning.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

17 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

There are so many statistics and variable ways to judge baseball players. The win stat for pitchers has been totally trashed it seems, but not the L.

OPS is about as valuable as wins for a pitcher or batting average. Arraez made the All Star game, Gallo is fighting to keep his job. There is no comparison between the value of these two players. You could not find a manager, coach, or player in baseball who would pick Gallo ahead of Arraez. That said, the comment that a handful of Arraez types might be complemented nicely with a Joey Gallo in the lineup sounds good.

https://www.eg.bucknell.edu/~bvollmay/baseball/runs1.html
 

Disagreed, the linked article does a good explanation of old school stat correlation to run creation

[Richie the Rally Goat]

To the OP, I agree that it’s easy to game plan against a one dimensional opponent. Lineup construction matters.

[Rigby]

11 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

massive woot-woots

I love that term! Should be the name of a new band!

But rumor has it - not such a good nickname for the bride.....