Twins Daily Draft Preview: Rhett Lowder

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Rhett Lowder is a right-handed pitcher from Wake Forest. He has seen his stock rise and ascended to 13th on the Consensus Big Board after his performance in the College World Series. Along with Chase Dollander and Hurston Waldrep, Lowder is solidly in the second tier of college pitchers (behind the tier that includes only Paul Skenes).

Image courtesy of Steven Branscombe_USA TODAY Sports

Over the next two weeks, we're going to be providing you with profiles of 10 players the Twins could take with the fifth overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft.

Who is He?
Rhett Lowder is a three-year starter for Wake Forest who put up impressive numbers over his three-year career and his 2023 season would have been talked about it even more if it wasn’t for what Skenes did at LSU.

Over three seasons, Lowder was 30-5 with a 3.29 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP and a K/9 of 10.2. As impressive is that is over three years, Lowder put up an otherworldly 2023 for a Wake Forest team that entered the NCAA Tournament as the #1 overall seed, won the most games in the nation and didn’t lose back-to-back games. He was 15-0 with a 1.87 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP and a 10.7 K/9. He went pitch for pitch in the showdown with Skenes in Omaha.

Why the Twins Will Draft Him
As the draft approaches, it's unclear what the Twins want to do. In an ideal world, Wyatt Langford is there for the taking. I also can't imagine they wouldn't be doing somersaults if Dylan Crews somehow fell and was signable at #5. They don't seem to be enamored with the high school bats. It seems to early to draft Noble Meyer (but it's possible). That only leaves reaching for a college bat or settling on the last demographic - the college pitcher - and Paul Skenes is already going to be taken. Enter: Rhett Lowder.

Lowder has a plus change-up, potentially the best in the draft. Additionally, his fastball is in the mid-90s and he has a usable slider, though it needs improvement.

There isn’t much more to ask for - which also limits his upside - so any team who drafts Lowder may have a mid-rotation starter they can place on the fast-track to the big leagues. With development of the slider, he could be more than that.

Why the Twins Won't Draft Him
The growing sentiment is that the Twins draft model doesn't value pitchers as much as hitters. Which is both too bad (because no one wins without pitching) but also makes sense (because the Twins have put together a rotation almost exclusively through trades). The Twins believe and have put into practice the idea that they can take college hitters early, develop them and flip them for big-league ready starters. They'll take a bunch of shots at the dartboard with college pitchers on Day 2, hoping that they hit the bullseye. Or, at the very least, combine the two to be able to take big shots at the deadline. 

They made two big dart throws at last year's deadline. The tip broke upon immediately upon release of one dart. And the other dart, well... that's not looking good right now either.

But it all comes back to the same point: the Twins believes it's easier to hit on a pitcher who is close to or already at the big-league level than it is to hit on a pitcher out of high school or college. 

And as it comes to Lowder specifically, there’s some concern with his delivery that may eventually necessitate a move to the bullpen. He threw a lot of innings for Wake Forest, but was very well protected by the coaching staff, only throwing 100 or more pitches two times. 

What do you think of Rhett Lowder as a prospect? How would you feel about him being the Twins pick at fifth overall? Personally, I get the same feeling as when there were rumors the team was interested in Aaron Nola in 2014 draft. Nola wasn't the shiny prep prospect that Nick Gordon or Alex Jackson was. He wasn't the high upside college hitter that Michael Conforto or Trea Turner was. But you know what? Aaron Nola has produced 30.8 fWAR, tied with Trea Turner for most in the entire 2014 draft.

Sometimes, you just have to go with solid and Rhett Lowder is, at a minimum, solid.

Join the discussion in the comments.

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[SarasotaBill]

1. Take one of top five

2. Take Lowder

3. Don’t think you’re smarter than everyone else (Cavaco, Sabato, …)

[tony&rodney]

Lowder is a strong prospect with a bright future. The Twins should be ecstatic if they get any of Drews, Skenes, Langford, or Clark. Passing on these guys would be an unwise choice. I'm hoping for Max Clark.

[RJA]

Who are the hitters the Twins have drafted in the first round in the last 10 years that they have flipped for major league starters?  Maybe you could say Rooker, but that would be it. Cavaco, Sabato, Lewis, Kirilloff, Miller, Lee, and Larnach have not been flipped for pitching. Steer was a third round pick, and CES was drafted in the fourth round. They traded Petty, Hajjar, Povich but they aren’t  bats. I don’t know what you are referring to. It appears to me they are attracted to college bats—Larnach, Wallner, Sabato and Lee, and what they perceive to be toolsy high school players—Cavaco, Lewis, Miller. But, they haven’t really traded them for pitching. And, they haven’t really developed any of their drafted pitchers other than Ober for the rotation. I like Lowder but I don’t think they will draft him. 

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not sure Teel is a reach, exactly. He's what, 7th rated? Higher than Lowder....

I'm taking Clark if he's there. If not, assuming the three top college guys are there, I go with Teel, Dollander, or Lowder. 

[Otwins]

Lowder is a solid pick and close to mlb ready. They could do a lot worse. I do not know much about Clark. Crews looks to me like Austin Martin so I am not as high on him as most people. Skenes and Langford look to me like the top two.  They both should be gone by the fifth pick and if they are I would be fine with Lowder. 

[DocBauer]

Not sure I agree the Twins aren't interested in HS position players, especially ones as highly regarded as we see in this year's top 5. I mean, Lewis was their 1st ever pick and they gambled on the "helium" pick of Cavaco. So why wouldn't they go after a top HS player?

I'm not convinced Lowder is the better prospect over Dollander. He might be "safer", while still having real upside if he gets that slider down, or perhaps changes it to a sweeper. But while Dollander might seem more risky after slipping in 2023, I think he may have more upside. 

I don't see any scenario where Skenes slides to #5. That leaves Langford, or one of the HS bats. I believe that's where they go.

But if the arms are just too tempting to pass on I'll only hope they make the right choice, because I'm really not sure which one that is. 

[Dman]

I was thinking the Lowder and Nola comp as well.  Nola was a control pitcher without a big fastball.  Sort of in the pitch to contact non of us wanted the Twins to take.  I do like the elite (Santana Lite) Change he has and the Twins have been good at helping guys develop sliders and now sweepers.  I still think the bats are too strong for them to go pitcher and going pitcher is always a big risk because if they have one big arm issue you come out with nothing in a deep draft. I wouldn't hate the pick but it would take some balls to make it IMO.  The way the team has been playing I think this FO goes the safe route.  Their jobs might depend on it.

[weitz41]

I'm expecting Langford, Crews and Skenes to be gone by #5. Of the HS bats I prefer Clark because he seems to have the best chance to stick in center field. If they are going another route Dollander, Lowder or maybe Meyers would be their top pitching prospect day 1.

If Clark isn't there. I'm not really sold on any one of the next group of talent. But I'd expect a bat at #5.

[Otaknam]

I do like the idea of taking an accomplished college pitcher w a mid 90’s fastball and plus secondary pitch who is almost major league ready. Lowder and Dollander fit that description, though Dollander’s mediocre season has seen him slide on mock drafts. However, take the player with the highest upside and a track record who has more than just power. No more Sabatos please, one dimensional base cloggers who hit .220 and strike out 40% of the time. We already have those guys in the bigs. I’m guessing they will take a college bat like Jacob Gonzalez or Kyle Teel, assuming the top three are gone and they are not sold on Clark or Jenkins.

[TopGunn#22]

Skenes is the only pitcher I take at #5 if he's there and if he is, I dash to the podium.  It really comes down to Clark, Jenkins or possibly Teel if Crews, Skenes and Wyatt Langford are gone.  At this point I've heard a lot to like about Max Clark.  Jenkins is an eyelash behind Clark and recent commentary about Teel (and the fact that he's a catcher that hits LH) and is a pretty darn good hitter to boot leads me to believe the decision will come down to Clark, Teel or Jenkins.  

Right now our pitching is great and our hitting is atrocious.  But MLB drafts take at least 2-3 years to have any impact on the major league roster.  We could be without Sonny Gray, Maeda and Mahle in 2024.  Skenes could have an immediate impact but I'm not sure about Lowder or Dollander.  They could each be 2025 kind of guys.  

[Fatbat]

I’d be just fine with Lowder or Dollander at 5. Skenes would be a dream that has almost no chance of happening. How “safe” does the front office want to draft since it’s unlikely to pick this high in the near future. A high school bat is 4-5 years away from impact vs. a college pitcher thats as close as 2 years. My view of drafting talent would first and always be the best talent that is closest to impact a need.  If a future superstar is available at #5, you have to take that chance! This draft seems to have at least 30 surefire stars.  Some 2 years away, some 5. Every pick has a risk but the 5th overall is only risky if they decide to do something weird. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

17 hours ago, RJA said:

 And, they haven’t really developed any of their drafted pitchers other than Ober for the rotation. I like Lowder but I don’t think they will draft him. 

Are we just going to ignore Varland, Winder, Jax (selected by previous management, developed under their leadership) - Petty Hajjar and Povich who all performed well enough to be traded for good assets - Priellip is a bit of question mark although twins thnk farther along than they expected and then Matthews and Lewis are far outperforming.   For the amount of capital invested in pitching in the draft, the Twins have far outperformed expectations under current managements leadership.  I think the current concern is the current lack of contact by the current team.  However yesterdays game, was more of an out of this world defense than anything.  Easily could have had 2-3 more runs in a smaller ball park or with not elite defense in centerfield, the robbed hit of Buxton and what would have been a homer by Castro in 15 other parks.  

[chpettit19]

14 hours ago, Dman said:

I was thinking the Lowder and Nola comp as well.  Nola was a control pitcher without a big fastball.  Sort of in the pitch to contact non of wanted the Twins to take.  I do like the elite (Santana Lite) Change he has and the Twins have been good at helping guys develop slides and now sweepers.  I still think the bats are too strong for them to go pitcher and going pitcher is always a bug risk because it one big arm issue and you come out with nothing in  deep draft. I wouldn't hate the pick but it would take some balls to make it IMO.  The way the team has been playing I think this FO goes the safe route.  Their jobs might depend on it.

That last sentiment is what has me the most worried. Drafting to save your job is a terrible way to do things. They need to be looking for a star, and taking on the extra risk that can come with that. The draft is a crap shoot, but going outside the top 5 is a real bold move that would make me sad.

[dex8425]

18 hours ago, Otwins said:

Lowder is a solid pick and close to mlb ready. They could do a lot worse. I do not know much about Clark. Crews looks to me like Austin Martin so I am not as high on him as most people. Skenes and Langford look to me like the top two.  They both should be gone by the fifth pick and if they are I would be fine with Lowder. 

Crews has a lot more pop in his bat and is a lot faster and better defensively than Martin. He's a legit centerfielder with all five tools. Martin was a utility guy with a high avg and obp, but didn't profile as a great defender anywhere and didn't have the power in college Crews does.  

Really hard to evaluate Clark. Lowder profiles as a high floor type guy for sure. 

[dex8425]

I think I would take Teel over Lowder. It's easier to get a #3/4 starter through other means than it is to get a left handed hitting athletic catcher with pop...

[SarasotaBill]

The problem with Teel is that the Twins like to platoon their catchers because of the wear and tear of the position. So even if he's an elite batter then he's only adding field value 60% of the time.

I watched his at bats in the NCAA tourney and wasn't overwhelmed (compared to Crews and Langford). 

Lowder's command and movement is exceptional. I would take one of the top five but Lowder's pitchability reminds me of how Nola was at LSU.

[RJA]

3 hours ago, IA Bean Counter said:

Are we just going to ignore Varland, Winder, Jax (selected by previous management, developed under their leadership) - Petty Hajjar and Povich who all performed well enough to be traded for good assets - Priellip is a bit of question mark although twins thnk farther along than they expected and then Matthews and Lewis are far outperforming.   For the amount of capital invested in pitching in the draft, the Twins have far outperformed expectations under current managements leadership.  I think the current concern is the current lack of contact by the current team.  However yesterdays game, was more of an out of this world defense than anything.  Easily could have had 2-3 more runs in a smaller ball park or with not elite defense in centerfield, the robbed hit of Buxton and what would have been a homer by Castro in 15 other parks.  

Our current rotation has one pitcher who was drafted by the Twins—Ober  Varland and Winder have yet to prove themselves. Jax as you know is not in the rotation. But, my basic point is that the Twins have not drafted college hitters in the first round and traded them for pitching. Who besides Rooker was traded  for pitching?  That statement in the article is simply not correct. As I noted, Petty, Hajjar and Povich were traded for pitching, not hitters. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

37 minutes ago, RJA said:

Our current rotation has one pitcher who was drafted by the Twins—Ober  Varland and Winder have yet to prove themselves. Jax as you know is not in the rotation. But, my basic point is that the Twins have not drafted college hitters in the first round and traded them for pitching. Who besides Rooker was traded  for pitching?  That statement in the article is simply not correct. As I noted, Petty, Hajjar and Povich were traded for pitching, not hitters. 

The reasoning is we can flip hitters for pitching,  which we flipped Arreaz.  As to 1st round,  who cares if its first round or not,  they are going with the law of averages, and to have both Steer and CES used in a trade even if I disagreed with it,  is a valid claim.  I don't get excluding 1st rounders as a valid argument.  Yes a couple of the 1st rounders haven't panned out,  but a majority have big league talent,  it is just needing to show their full potential on the field. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, dex8425 said:

I think I would take Teel over Lowder. It's easier to get a #3/4 starter through other means than it is to get a left handed hitting athletic catcher with pop...

Its easier to get a league average Catcher than it is to get a #1 or #2 starting pitcher.  Ultimately the ceiling of each greatly changes the value.  If you only see Lowder as a #3/#4 I think you are drastically undercutting his potential.  

[RJA]

2 hours ago, IA Bean Counter said:

The reasoning is we can flip hitters for pitching,  which we flipped Arreaz.  As to 1st round,  who cares if its first round or not,  they are going with the law of averages, and to have both Steer and CES used in a trade even if I disagreed with it,  is a valid claim.  I don't get excluding 1st rounders as a valid argument.  Yes a couple of the 1st rounders haven't panned out,  but a majority have big league talent,  it is just needing to show their full potential on the field. 

I am not quite sure what point you are making. I think you need to read what I said more carefully as you are not getting what I said. Have a good day. 

[Twins33]

Lowder has grown on me. I still think they should take one of the top 5, but wouldn’t hate it if they picked Lowder. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

On 7/3/2023 at 7:17 PM, RJA said:

I am not quite sure what point you are making. I think you need to read what I said more carefully as you are not getting what I said. Have a good day. 

RJA I get exactly what you are saying.  However your parameters are so restrictive it takes away of the overall strategy of what the Twins have done.  The other is the depth of the Twins pitching staff and in the minors should make it less necessary for the Twins to make multiple trades for pitching in the future.