Twins 1, Braves 4: Gray Duels Strider but Twins Lose to Hot Braves

[Danchat]

1 minute ago, SwainZag said:

Good lord.   The Twins win 4/5 then lose one game on the road to the ace of quite possibly the best and hottest team in baseball and everyone jumps off the deep end again. 

It's a common trend to see the negative crowd jump speak out more loudly in a game thread where we lost, it's not as if they just jumped off the deep end because of this game.

Also, we lost 5/6 right before that 4/5 stretch. This is clearly a middling team that isn't good enough to be a contender, but not bad enough to sink down deeper into this terrible division.

[LeatherAntenna]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

IMO Gray and Maeda aren't going to return the type of players you are hoping to get in a trade. Maybe a real young prospect that turns into something years down the line (like Duran). I can't imagine the Reds would trade back Petty for a half season of Gray.

But with that said I am open to trading Gallo, Kepler, Gray and Maeda while still shopping for a relief pitcher or two that can be trusted. Gray would have to be return they just can't say no to, and the other three I say yes to the trade offer without caring at all who the other team is offering.

 

2 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Winnable game until you know who came in to pitch  ...

I laughed  when  pagan came into the game,  WHY would he be your first choice  in  winnable game , WHY is he even on the team ....

There was that story on this site by Taylor  earlier in June about his 5 worst blown saves.  You could add last nite thought not a blown save, but just change the story title from ‘blown saves’ to games he ‘blew up’ , usually with just a handful of pitches.  He is very efficient in that regard.

[LeatherAntenna]

1 hour ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

As much as it is tempting to blame Pagan, the bottom of the 7th would have ended without a run scored if Gray had moved to cover first on Harris' hit into the 3 - 4 hole.  No telling how things might have played out after that.  It was bang-bang, but that defensive reaction needs to be instinctive.

If just would have postponed Pagán from blowing up the game until the 8th.

[TwinsDr2021]

13 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

This is EXACTLY how I feel. I want to see this team remolded into a winner, not to limp backwards into a playoff berth - a playoff berth that would only solidify and vindicate the faulty regime currently in place.

There's no reason the Twins couldn't become the Reds, Orioles, D-backs or Marlins in 2026 or 2027. Rebuild. Restructure. Or keep crawling around the AL Central. To me, the choice is clear.

Why do the Twins Fans have to wait until 26 or 27? Are the Reds, Baltimore, Dbacks or Marlins really that much better than the Twins are today or that much closer to winning a championship this year or next?  I would say the answer is no, we are pissed at where this FO and Manager have put us the last few years,

I mean 2026 is the time they should be trading away Ober, Ryan and Lopez if they still have value before becoming a free agent(same time frame as Berrios) and restocking the farm.

That is how continued success and a pipeline work, IMO the offense isn't that far away and the pitching staff is here. Get Buxton healthy (meaning put him on the DL for a few weeks or sent him to Fort Myers and have the kids throwing live pitching to him so he can figure out how to hit again)  and figure out if any of the younger guys can do more than strike out or hit a homer. I am not talking about Wallner and Larnach. I am talking about Lee, Soularie, Severio, Maybe Rosario, ERod, and Schobel.

They need to inject some life into the offensive, Lewis/Julien seem to have that, maybe having another young guy taking a vets job will do that as well.

 

 

[JD-TWINS]

11 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

Way too early to decide that. They have another 6 weeks or so to see where they're at. And while I want to see something more, we've seen them be generally very competitive against good teams. And, I'd rather see them win the division than not... and just take their chances in the playoffs. They'd be the 3 seed and play the 6 seed, and maybe they can just get a win and end old narratives. 

Agreed. Can’t argue that selling makes sense when we have 30 plus days to consider & are currently in first place!

Moving in a positive direction should be this year’s goal at this point - as you point out.

CC & Buxton have had big moments but have generally been very disappointing.

Polanco is hurt a good chunk of the time!

Miranda - Larnach - Vazquez - Gordon have all been more than underwhelming from where expectations were April 1.

The Kepler & Gallo experiments have shown to prove recent history correct, solid defense …….embarrassing offense.

Kirilloff seems healthy - Julien seems like he may stick - Lewis is at the start of a solid career - Farmer & Castro & Taylor & Solano & Jeffers are all doing their jobs as part-time bench/platoon guys, even though almost all are starting regularly now.

With ALL OF THIS GLOOM, we still have a good shot at winning the division. Any positive step forward with this roster (& the performances to date) would be a big positive change in the narrative.

Addition by subtraction:

Pagan - Lopez (maybe long-term IL?) - Kepler - Gallo all down the road in next 2-5 weeks!!!

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

As much as it is tempting to blame Pagan, the bottom of the 7th would have ended without a run scored if Gray had moved to cover first on Harris' hit into the 3 - 4 hole.  No telling how things might have played out after that.  It was bang-bang, but that defensive reaction needs to be instinctive.

OR if Kirilloff would have just caught the ball - 2 hop smash hit by him in the ground earlier, tough play - dropped/missed relay from Solano into the dugout……didn’t hurt BUT it really made me think he’s not a real good first baseman with all 3 of these happening in one game.

[TwinsDr2021]

12 minutes ago, LeatherAntenna said:

There was that story on this site by Taylor  earlier in June about his 5 worst blown saves.  You could add last nite thought not a blown save, but just change the story title from ‘blown saves’ to games he ‘blew up’ , usually with just a handful of pitches.  He is very efficient in that regard.

I am not here to defend Pagan, if it was up to me he would have been gone last year. But in this case he is a bullpen guy that came in and gave up a homer, it happens, even to the best relief pitchers (Him and Duran have both given up 3, Duran in 2 less innings)

Pagan didn't lose this game, the Twins were already down 2 - 1 when he came in and they didn't score again.

This game was lost the moment Rocco penciled in Kepler in the 3 hole!

[Schmoeman5]

2 hours ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

As much as it is tempting to blame Pagan, the bottom of the 7th would have ended without a run scored if Gray had moved to cover first on Harris' hit into the 3 - 4 hole.  No telling how things might have played out after that.  It was bang-bang, but that defensive reaction needs to be instinctive.

100%  There was time to get that out. Gray never made a move towards 1st. Not 1 mention of it either. 

[SwainZag]

5 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

100%  There was time to get that out. Gray never made a move towards 1st. Not 1 mention of it either. 

Gray already gave up the go ahead HR to Ozuna anyways.  The play on Harris should have been made by AK or Gray and they should have been out of the inning.  Not to mention that Acuna is the front runner for MVP, it's not like some slouch took Pagan deep.  Sometimes you just get beat by great players.  The Twins got beat by Strider and Acuna.  Sometimes it's okay to not throw blame around and admit you got beat by great guys.  🤷‍♂️

[Schmoeman5]

29 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

OR if Kirilloff would have just caught the ball - 2 hop smash hit by him in the ground earlier, tough play - dropped/missed relay from Solano into the dugout……didn’t hurt BUT it really made me think he’s not a real good first baseman with all 3 of these happening in one game.

He isn't. And now that his hitting has came back down from his monster start its more noticeable. I wonder if he's still getting injections. 

[Schmoeman5]

1 minute ago, SwainZag said:

Gray already gave up the go ahead HR to Ozuna anyways.  The play on Harris should have been made by AK or Gray and they should have been out of the inning.  Not to mention that Acuna is the front runner for MVP, it's not like some slouch took Pagan deep.  Sometimes you just get beat by great players.  The Twins got beat by Strider and Acuna.  Sometimes it's okay to not throw blame around and admit you got beat by great guys.  🤷‍♂️

You're right. But a 2-1 game vs a 4-1 game. Not having a crystal ball. Big difference 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

This is EXACTLY how I feel. I want to see this team remolded into a winner, not to limp backwards into a playoff berth - a playoff berth that would only solidify and vindicate the faulty regime currently in place.

I think that is one thing they're really not good at. It's one thing to come up with a plan but they have to recognize when the plan isn't working and adjust. They're really slow making adjustments. Alex Colome as the closer is just one example.

[SwainZag]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I think that is one thing they're really not good at. It's one thing to come up with a plan but they have to recognize when the plan isn't working and adjust. They're really slow making adjustments. Alex Colome as the closer is just one example.

Colome was taken out of the closer role before April ended and given to Rogers/Robles.  He was a part in 4 losses in that time period though, but less than a month isn't THAT slow, especially coming off the 2020 season he had.  The only reason he got it back because Rogers got injured in July and never returned.

[DJL44]

It's funny that the Twins scored their one run because the Braves threw a fastball in the strikezone to Gallo instead of reading the scouting report that says "only changeups in the zone".

[IaBeanCounter]

The Twins are at .500.  The question is how far below .500 will they be at the All-Star break with 8 games against Atlanta and Baltimore, and 3 against KC.  Maybe they will surprise me, as they have played well against the best teams.  I am hoping that after the AS break Polanco, Thilbar and J Lopez will be back healthy.  I would put Buxton on the IL now and prepare for the second half.   My guess is that the Twins will go 5-6 over the next 11 games.

[Cap'n Piranha]

4 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Wasn't arguing against the premise, just pointing out they basically just faced the best of the best and it was close game, and in a close games anything can happen (kind of the play in the 7th). Not disagreeing that the bats have to be better and probably the game plan as well. But I will take Ryan, Gray, Ober/Lopez and in a 3 or 5 game series and see what happens.

Hoping you can take 3 out of 5 scoring 1-2 runs a game (meaning your staff has to stand on it's head for multiple games) is not a promising strategy.  The premise is that in the playoffs, the Twins will run into a bunch of pitchers at or near the level of Strider--last night was an indication of what the result might be.

[TwinsDr2021]

32 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Hoping you can take 3 out of 5 scoring 1-2 runs a game (meaning your staff has to stand on it's head for multiple games) is not a promising strategy.  The premise is that in the playoffs, the Twins will run into a bunch of pitchers at or near the level of Strider--last night was an indication of what the result might be.

But wouldn't that be the same thinking the opponents would have against Ryan, Gray and Ober for example? I mean the Twins have to hit better and have a better offensive plan, but with Stewart, Jax and Duran closing out the game and maybe a couple of others they can add at the deadline, I am not sure how the thinking is they will be getting better the next few years?

[Cap'n Piranha]

6 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

There's a difference between "prefer to make the playoffs than to miss the playoffs," and "happy just making the playoffs."

In a micro sense, yes.  In a macro sense, no.  In a macro sense, I'm sure all of us want the Twins to win a World Series.  Therefore, if the Twins are unlikely to win the World Series in any given year, it is preferable to miss the playoffs in order to accumulate better draft positioning (after all, if the Twins make the playoffs last year, they don't have pick #5 this year).  The only exception is if it's an up-and-coming team like the 2023 Orioles.  This Twins team is not up-and-coming; it seems much closer to down-and-going.

[TwinkieFan4life]

7 hours ago, Squirrel said:

But who replaces Gray and Maeda? Do those replacements get us to the playoffs or make our chances worse? The depth of our rotation is what’s kept us in it. If we sell on some of these guys, particularly if we are still leading the division by the trade deadline, I think we are basically throwing in the towel. So either go for it or don’t. I agree that Ryan, Lopez and Ober would be fine as a rotation in the playoffs, but I do think you need a 4th starter. Varland? Pretty sure I’d rather have Gray with Maeda to the pen. But that’s all moot, if we don’t get there to begin with. I’d rather get to the playoffs and lose than not make the playoffs at all.

It is possible that we go from the 8th or 9th best team in the AL to the 10th or 11th best.  This is an acceptable potential cost of adding talent to the organization in my opinion.  It is also possible that the team continues on the current pace.

Honestly, the most likely outcome of doing nothing at the deadline is being overtaken by the Guardians again anyway.

[Squirrel]

7 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I find it so very Minnesotan to be happy just making the playoffs.  We should all want more than that.

Did I say that? No. Please reread and comprehend.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

In a micro sense, yes.  In a macro sense, no.  In a macro sense, I'm sure all of us want the Twins to win a World Series.  Therefore, if the Twins are unlikely to win the World Series in any given year, it is preferable to miss the playoffs in order to accumulate better draft positioning (after all, if the Twins make the playoffs last year, they don't have pick #5 this year).  The only exception is if it's an up-and-coming team like the 2023 Orioles.  This Twins team is not up-and-coming; it seems much closer to down-and-going.

If there was a higher correlation between draft picks positioning, or even first round success rates overall, then I'd buy that. But the draft is such a crap shoot that it doesn't actually work that way in reality. The Dodgers, Braves, Rays, etc. never pick high, but they're always good. The Rockies, Pirates, Royals, etc. always pick high, but they're always bad. So I disagree with your macro argument all together. And I'd argue this team should/could be up-and-coming if they'd make different (better?) decisions on their down-and-going players. If the Twins had made the playoffs last year they'd have less of a need for the #5 pick since they'd be a more talented team. Being less talented isn't an automatic way to become more talented. Being more talented is.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

7 hours ago, SwainZag said:

Gray already gave up the go ahead HR to Ozuna anyways.

Corrected OP to "another run."

[Blyleven2011]

9 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

If only we had a FO that could create a pitching pipeline, we wouldn’t need to worry about replacements.  I find it so very Minnesotan to be happy just making the playoffs.  We should all want more than that.

Just making the playoffs is fine—if you’re an up-and-coming team like the Orioles, with young guys everywhere figuring it out.  It’s not fine if you’re a veteran-heavy team massively underachieving; like the Twins.

We’re more than 30 years removed from the last time the Twins were a factor in the postseason, and with the exception of a handful of years since then (early 2000’s, 2019-2020), this team has been completely irrelevant.  
 

Falvine’s job was to create a sustained winner, and while the early returns were promising, those are long gone.  Their team plays in one of the worst divisions of all time, they’ve gotten unprecedented spending power, have repeatedly raided the farm system for arms, and still can’t get the team above .500.  With the exception of Ryan, Odorizzi, and Duran, they have more or less lost every trade they’ve made.  I don’t want the Twins to make the playoffs because I don’t think whatever Falvine is doing is working, and they’re unlikely to be fired if they make the playoffs.

I like the twins because  I grew up following the twins with our hall of famers  ...

I am not proud of the current twins as their style of baseball  is not acceptable  ... 

If we win a division with a 500 record or even a sub 500 record , that would be very embarrassing going to the playoffs  ...

I just don't have that feeling that the twins can win each game , our Starting pitchers have kept us in most games , and most have been winnable  ....

PURE AND SIMPLE  , no killer instinct  ...

[Cap'n Piranha]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If there was a higher correlation between draft picks positioning, or even first round success rates overall, then I'd buy that. But the draft is such a crap shoot that it doesn't actually work that way in reality. The Dodgers, Braves, Rays, etc. never pick high, but they're always good. The Rockies, Pirates, Royals, etc. always pick high, but they're always bad. So I disagree with your macro argument all together. And I'd argue this team should/could be up-and-coming if they'd make different (better?) decisions on their down-and-going players. If the Twins had made the playoffs last year they'd have less of a need for the #5 pick since they'd be a more talented team. Being less talented isn't an automatic way to become more talented. Being more talented is.

Maybe the Dodgers, Braves, and Rays are always good because they’re good at drafting, And would therefore be even better if they had a wider player pool and increased money to spend?  Maybe the Rockies, Pirates, and Royals are always bad because they’re bad at drafting, and would be even worse with a narrower player pool and decreased money? The draft is not straightforward to be sure, but it also isn’t teams throwing darts.

The Twins would not have been a more talented team had they made the playoffs last year—that makes no sense.  The talent level they had was not healthy enough to make the playoffs.  Making the playoffs would mean they do not have a top 5 pick in the best draft in a decade—the organization would have less talent had they made the playoffs last year.

Saying being more talented is an automatic way to become more talented is a semantically null statement.  It’s like saying the best way to get a higher paying job is to get a higher paying job.  For a team that can’t spend to the level of other teams, and therefore must acquire talent through drafting, IFA, and shrewd trades, drafting seems like a fairly important thing to do well at, no?  Especially since it’s the only one of those 3 paths that is not reliant on other entities to occur.

 

[Cap'n Piranha]

12 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Why do the Twins Fans have to wait until 26 or 27? Are the Reds, Baltimore, Dbacks or Marlins really that much better than the Twins are today or that much closer to winning a championship this year or next?  I would say the answer is no, we are pissed at where this FO and Manager have put us the last few years,

I mean 2026 is the time they should be trading away Ober, Ryan and Lopez if they still have value before becoming a free agent(same time frame as Berrios) and restocking the farm.

That is how continued success and a pipeline work, IMO the offense isn't that far away and the pitching staff is here. Get Buxton healthy (meaning put him on the DL for a few weeks or sent him to Fort Myers and have the kids throwing live pitching to him so he can figure out how to hit again)  and figure out if any of the younger guys can do more than strike out or hit a homer. I am not talking about Wallner and Larnach. I am talking about Lee, Soularie, Severio, Maybe Rosario, ERod, and Schobel.

They need to inject some life into the offensive, Lewis/Julien seem to have that, maybe having another young guy taking a vets job will do that as well.

 

 

CIN, BAL, ARI, and MIA are all leading divisions (other than MIA) that are demonstrably superior to the AL central; Miami is currently the first wild card in the NL.  All of them have multiple players who are better than anyone on the Twins, with impact players still in the minors to further buttress.  If you told me I could swap the entire playing roster at all levels with any of those 4 organizations, I would do so in a heartbeat.

The IL will not help Buxton.  If that was a viable solution, it would have fixed the problem in the off-season.

[chpettit19]

6 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Maybe the Dodgers, Braves, and Rays are always good because they’re good at drafting, And would therefore be even better if they had a wider player pool and increased money to spend?  Maybe the Rockies, Pirates, and Royals are always bad because they’re bad at drafting, and would be even worse with a narrower player pool and decreased money? The draft is not straightforward to be sure, but it also isn’t teams throwing darts.

The Twins would not have been a more talented team had they made the playoffs last year—that makes no sense.  The talent level they had was not healthy enough to make the playoffs.  Making the playoffs would mean they do not have a top 5 pick in the best draft in a decade—the organization would have less talent had they made the playoffs last year.

Saying being more talented is an automatic way to become more talented is a semantically null statement.  It’s like saying the best way to get a higher paying job is to get a higher paying job.  For a team that can’t spend to the level of other teams, and therefore must acquire talent through drafting, IFA, and shrewd trades, drafting seems like a fairly important thing to do well at, no?  Especially since it’s the only one of those 3 paths that is not reliant on other entities to occur.

 

Jeren Kendall, Kyle Wright, Brendan McKay, JT Ginn, Carter Stewart, Matthew Libertore, Shea Langeliers, Braden Shewmake, Kody Hoese, Michael Busch, Greg Jones, Jared Shuster, Bobby Miller, Nick Bitsko.

Those are the 1st round picks for the Braves, Dodgers, and Rays between 2017 and 2020 (so guys we should expect to be in the majors by now if they're really good). Wright is big time (and was a high pick), Busch is looking nice (wasn't a high pick), and the rest are a mix between "will never see the majors" and "ceiling of a solid regular." No, the draft isn't just throwing darts, but it's pretty close. These are the teams you're claiming are superior in drafting. 

Is drafting well important? Of course it is. But you're proving my point by admitting it's not just about having high picks, but actually being good at it. Is your argument that the Twins are good at it so being high is extra good? If so then ok, sound theory as far as drafting goes. But, as you point out, there's way more things you have to be good at to have a good team. And if the Twins aren't good at those things they're doomed anyways. None of what you said changes the fact that being bad isn't some automatic ticket to being good. Especially when you're actively trying to be good, and failing at it. At that point, being bad is likely an automatic ticket to being bad for longer. See: Royals, Tigers, Rockies, Pirates (all have been attempting to be good, failing, getting high picks, and continuing to be bad). Getting high picks doesn't suddenly make a team well run, or a FO good.

But none of this really has anything to do with the idea that "there's a difference between 'prefer to make the playoffs than to miss the playoffs,' and 'happy just making the playoffs.'" You claimed it's "Minnesotan" to be "happy just making the playoffs." That's not what the other poster said. They said they'd rather make the playoffs than not. You then argued that that's the wrong stance, and they should want to miss the playoffs for better draft positioning, which lead us here. But that's not the point of my original comment. My original comment is that you changed the idea of what the other poster was saying. Just being happy making the playoffs is not the same as preferring to make the playoffs than miss the playoffs. They're fundamentally different ideas. Whether you think their stance is correct or not wasn't the point. The point was you changed what was being said. I also prefer they make the playoffs to not making the playoffs (in part because of what we've discussed since), but that doesn't mean I'm "happy just making the playoffs." Getting swept out of the playoffs doesn't make me happy. But it makes me happier than being the Tigers or Royals or Rockies and not making the playoffs at all. There's a difference between those 2 thoughts. That was my original point.

[Squirrel]

43 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

There's a difference between those 2 thoughts. That was my original point.

Thank you for thoroughly explaining my meaning. 

[DJL44]

16 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

If the Twins are unlikely to win the World Series in any given year, it is preferable to miss the playoffs in order to accumulate better draft positioning

The problem with this philosophy is every team is unlikely to win the World Series in any given year. Even the odds-on favorite Braves and Rays have less than a 20% chance to win it all. Therefore, the Twins should always tank to get better draft positioning and never try to win.

Playoff games are 1) fun 2) profitable. They should definitely be trying to make the playoffs this season.

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

The problem with this philosophy is every team is unlikely to win the World Series in any given year. Even the odds-on favorite Braves and Rays have less than a 20% chance to win it all. Therefore, the Twins should always tank to get better draft positioning and never try to win.

Playoff games are 1) fun 2) profitable. They should definitely be trying to make the playoffs this season.

Also, the MLB draft is no longer strictly based on team record, so tanking doesn’t necessarily guarantee you the same draft position as in previous years, so it’s not beneficial to do so.