Week in Review: Road (Trip) to Redemption?

[Nick Nelson]

Calling the course of this season a roller coaster doesn't really do it justice. I doubt any design with such extreme and repetitive descents would be approved, because it simply wouldn't make for a very enjoyable ride.

Speaking of unenjoyable rides, the 2023 Twins sunk to their lowest point yet last week, before finally experiencing a long-awaited turnaround. Will this one stick?

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/19 through Sun, 6/25
***
Record Last Week: 4-3 (Overall: 40-39)
Run Differential Last Week: +0 (Overall: +34)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (2.0 GA)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 73 | BOS 9, MIN 3: Staff's Struggles Continue, Lineup Sputters
Game 74 | BOS 10, MIN 4: Season Reaches Low Point in Blowout Loss
Game 75 | MIN 5, BOS 4: Farmer Finishes Tumultuous Game in 10th
Game 76 | MIN 6, BOS 0: Series Split Salvaged Behind Ryan Shutout
Game 77 | MIN 4, DET 1: Maeda Shines in Return from Injured List
Game 78 | DET 3, MIN 2: Another Lifeless Offensive Performance
Game 79 | MIN 6, DET 3: Twins Awaken in Extras to Take Series

NEWS & NOTES

For the first time since April, Kenta Maeda took the hill to make a major-league start on Friday night in Detroit. Nobody knew quite what to expect, but Maeda came through brilliantly, tossing five shutout innings to pick up his first win since August of 2021.

To make room for Maeda in the rotation, Louie Varland was optioned to Triple-A following a rough string of outings. (Reliever Oliver Ortega was briefly promoted to occupy the open roster spot between their starts.) Kyle Garlick was designated for assignment, passed through waivers, and returned to St. Paul.

In a sad moment on Saturday night, José De León apparently blew out his elbow (again) while warming up ahead of the eighth inning. He'd been a solid lower-leverage option for a bullpen that's stretched on depth, so it's a bummer from that standpoint, but even more so on a personal level. The 30-year-old had battled back from so much adversity. 

While MRI results weren't known as of Sunday afternoon, De León is very likely done for the year. Josh Winder was recalled to the bullpen in his stead.

Finally, the Twins made a few minor-league signings last week, which isn't unusual – but one name from the latest wave stands out: former Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel, who signed on Thursday and will report to the Saints. 

As his velocity declined beyond viability, Keuchel's career fizzled post-2020 (he posted a ghastly 9.20 ERA in 60 innings last year between three MLB stops). But the 35-year-old lefty has been working at Driveline to try and find his way back to the big-league mound. While he's a longshot to become a meaningful factor for Minnesota, Keuchel adds an intriguing organizational storyline to follow.

He made his Saints debut on Sunday, starting and pitching four innings of four-run ball on 54 pitches. He struck out four, walked one, and induced a bunch of swings and misses despite a fastball that topped out at 87.1 MPH.

 

HIGHLIGHTS

Maeda's outstanding performance – punctuated with a burst of emotion after he ended the fifth on a strikeout – helped set the tone in a week full of redemptive performances from a Twins team that managed to raise itself from a bleak low point on Tuesday to win four of the next five.

Skepticism surrounded Maeda as he returned from a vague elbow injury followed by a rehab stint where his results were mixed, with his fastball clocking in at around 89 MPH on average. Maeda's pitching ahead of the IL stint – especially the final start, where he gave up 10 earned runs – did not inspire confidence. 

But on Friday, the 35-year-old made a big statement, albeit against a weak Tigers lineup. He struck out eight and allowed only three hits over five scoreless frames, working efficiently outside of a few control hiccups.

Afterward, he declared that he feels like his old self from a mental standpoint.

 

It's worth remembering that Maeda was similarly effective in his first start of the season against Miami, before the wheels quickly fell off, so optimism should remain in check for the moment. But the Twins don't need Maeda to replicate his 2020 form. They simply need him to pitch to the level of a solid No. 5 starter who can eat some innings. On Friday, he looked more than capable.

 

Joe Ryan hardly needs to prove himself as a quality rotation option at this point, but he too was looking for some redemption coming off an ugly start against Detroit. Last week in this column I noted, "It appears that regression is catching up a bit with Mr. Ryan, whose ERA has risen from 2.21 to 3.30 in his past four starts."

And so Joe Cool went out for his next turn and threw a complete-game shutout, the first by a Twins pitcher in five years. From start to finish Ryan was flat-out masterful, striking out nine Red Sox with no walks and just three hits allowed. Following a brief lapse the prior week, he went right back to looking like an ace.

 

Another player riding the redemption train: Byron Buxton. Last week, as his slump lingered and worsened, I lamented, "History tells us he'll snap out of and go on a tear at some point soon, but man, that seems like a massive stretch based on how lost he seems in every single at-bat right now." 

It's a good reminder to myself that I should trust history and evidence over my own reactive readings of the game. Lost as he may have looked, Buxton snapped out of it in a big way against Boston, launching three home runs – including two of the longest of his career, in consecutive at-bats. He swiftly reminded us what he can bring to the table when he escapes his perplexing ruts.

 

I'm not going to say Buxton is out of the woods by any means, because he went right back to flailing in the Detroit series (0-for-9, 4 K) and now is dealing with back spasms, but we'll take any positive signs from him. Those absolute nukes at Target Field were some thunderingly loud positives, albeit contained within a brief and fleeting hot streak.

A few other standout performances worthy of noting from the past week:

• Max Kepler is embarking on his own redemption tour. He went 6-for-16 with three homers, and suddenly his OPS is back in the 700 range after lagging in the low 600s for much of June. It's still annoying to see Kepler amassing major-league PAs while Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach toil in the minors, but he's relieving a bit of the heat for now. (The same can't be said for Joey Gallo.)
• Ryan Jeffers has quietly been the team's biggest offensive success story this year, leading all position players in fWAR as a part-time catcher while putting up offensive production that doesn't slow down: he went 8-for-12 with three doubles last week to lift his OPS to .824 through 46 games. Oh, and Christian Vázquez is coming around too. 
• Royce Lewis has brought a much-needed charge to this group, with electric athleticism and an aggressive style of hitting that actually seems aimed at more than launching bombs in every AB. He did homer a couple times last week, but also mixed in plenty of sprayed liners to all fields in an 11-for-24 stretch that ends with an active six-game hitting streak.

 

LOWLIGHTS

The Twins offense, even at its "best," is completely one-dimensional, Royce's contributions notwithstanding. They have almost no method of scoring outside of hoping for home runs (usually dictated by a mistake pitch from the opposition) because this lineup is largely lacking for any other strengths. 

It's fortunate the pitching was up to the task of salvaging a split against Boston and securing a series win in Detroit because the lineup was sticking to its usual antics persistently.

Here's a quick breakdown of how all Minnesota's runs were scored in the past week, during which they averaged 4.3 runs per game against some very pedestrian pitching:

• Monday: 3 runs scored – All on one swing from Vázquez.
• Tuesday: 4 runs scored – All on late (meaningless) home runs from Buxton, Lewis and Kepler.
• Wednesday: 5 runs scored (in 10 innings) – One on Kepler homer, three on RBI singles, one RBI groundout from Carlos Correa.
• Thursday: 6 runs scored – Three on solo home runs from Buxton (2x) and Correa. The other three came on a two-run double from Michael A. Taylor and an RBI single from Lewis. 
• Friday: 4 runs scored – Three on home runs from Kepler (2-R) and Lewis, one on bases-loaded WP to Vázquez.
• Saturday: 2 runs scored – Both on solo home runs from Correa and Gallo.
• Sunday: 6 runs scored – Two on Donovan Solano home run, three on RBI singles, one on bases-loaded error by Detroit.

That's 30 runs total with 18 of them scoring on homers. In between those long balls the Twins are constantly hunting for, they are stringing together tons of fruitless at-bats and blank innings, continuing to supply the pitching staff with a razor-thin margin for error. 

Twins hitters pile up strikeouts on unproductive PAs, flop in key situations, and run themselves into unaffordable outs on the bases. Day after day. They haven't scored more than six runs in a contest in nearly two weeks.

Naturally, it's all the more difficult to witness these repeated letdowns from the lineup while Luis Arraez makes headlines by chasing history in Miami (as I write this, he's batting .401 and leading the majors in batting average by 83 points). Especially with Pablo López delivering two more underwhelming outings last week, pushing his ERA to a mediocre 4.40 through 15 starts. 

I firmly believe López has outpitched that ERA – even in the past week, where his FIP was 1.30 – and will be an asset to this rotation now and going forward. Also, Arraez is clearly riding high now. And good for him! Still, the optics at the moment ... they're not great. 

Maybe the end of Sunday's game can be taken as a good omen. The Twins did what they've consistently been unable to do: string hits in scoring opportunities, run aggressively with success, win battles against the opposing pitcher and defense. 

Hopefully that's a sign of things to come for the offense. It'll be needed, because the Twins are now headed into the teeth of a very challenging road trip, and the general level of play from recent weeks will not suffice if they want to come out above .500 on the other end.

TRENDING STORYLINE

The unfortunate injury to De León leaves a void in the Twins' middle-relief tier. At the moment they are essentially carrying three long relievers – Winder, Jordan Balazovic, and Brent Headrick – and that's not tenable for the bullpen. Perhaps one of those guys moves into a shorter-burst role, but a swap in the near future seems more likely. Headrick, who coughed up five runs in one inning against Boston on Tuesday, is likely at greatest risk.

Thing is, the 40-man roster is pretty light on healthy short relief options at the moment. Ortega would need to wait another week to return, barring injury. With De León likely to open a spot by landing on the 60-day IL, could the Twins give a chance to a non-rostered wild-card type in the minors?

One thing is for sure: losing De León as an option in the mix greatly increases the stakes for Caleb Thielbar and/or Jorge Alcala to come back at some point with any level of health and effectiveness. Not to mention Jorge López, who will be sidelined indefinitely as he focuses on his mental well being.

LOOKING AHEAD

The going is about to get a lot tougher for the Twins, so we'll see if they can get going. Pitchers will face a brutal gauntlet in Atlanta against a high-powered Braves offense, which will present an especially telling test for Maeda on Wednesday. From there, it's off to Baltimore to take on a very strong Orioles team that's 15 games above .500 in the AL East.

At this time next week, we should be satisfied with even a 2-4 outcome, because this is just a really difficult road stretch by any measure. That only makes it all the more frustrating that the Twins couldn't capitalize more on their latest favorable homestand, but alas. Onward and upward.

MONDAY, 6/26: TWINS @ BRAVES – RHP Sonny Gray v. RHP Spencer Strider
TUESDAY, 6/27: TWINS @ BRAVES – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Bryce Elder
WEDNESDAY, 6/28: TWINS @ BRAVES – RHP Kenta Maeda v. RHP AJ Smith-Shawver
FRIDAY, 6/30: TWINS @ ORIOLES – RHP Pablo Lopez v. RHP Dean Kremer
SATURDAY, 7/1: TWINS @ ORIOLES – RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Kyle Bradish
SUNDAY, 7/2: TWINS @ ORIOLES – RHP Sonny Gray v. TBD

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[Peter]

Disagree on 2-4 that’s not acceptable-for rest of road trip-3-3 will give us winning record. Expectations should be 4-2 if we want to be taken seriously in competing against best of league. It’s almost half way point/all star break/must get to another gear and start winning games/series as well get on long winning streak!!! Let’s go Twins!!!

Edited June 25, 2023 by Peter
Adding more

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Maeda’s body language was that of a pitcher who knows his career is in the balance. That’s what I was seeing, anyway. He pretty much stopped throwing the four seam fastball the second time through the order. That might be a warning flag, He does look to be in better conditioning than he was this spring, however, like not walking off the mound after every inning like he’s completely exhausted. So that’s a good sign. I would be willing to give him some run to see if he can strings some starts together. 

Hard as it is to believe, both Cleveland and Chicago are having worse years than the Twins. Compounded by the fact that Triston McKenzie and Liam Hendricks both had to go back on the IL with elbow issues. The division is there for the taking. 

[LastOnePicked]

This is going to be a fascinating week. If the Twins go 4-2 or better, then perhaps a corner has been turned and this team is ready to contend. 3-3 is promising but keeps us in roughly the same .500 limbo. 2-4 or worse will likely see them drop out of first place for the first time this season.

It's only six games, but it feels like a very big six games ahead.

[LastOnePicked]

"He made his Saints debut on Sunday, starting and pitching four innings of four-run ball on 54 pitches."

Wasn't in one-run ball? I thought it went a little better than this.

[Monkeypaws]

This team needs to scrap to win.

The 2023 Twins are truly a day at a time team.

Not bored by this at all.

[mikelink45]

When you have a series against Detroit it should be a week where you really pick up wins, but we struggle with bad teams so maybe this is a good week for us.  Good teams get us to concentrate - maybe we will be 4 - 2

[Johnny Ringo]

Sometimes we get so wrapped up in our own issues that we don't take time to observe things around us. I am certainly guilty of this.  But if you look around baseball there are very few great teams. I will admit I stand in awe a bit of Atlanta and Tampa.  I want to tap Tampa's front office every time I shop on-line.  I will get everything I want for 30% of the price.

 The Twins are a flawed team. We all know the issues (too many Ks, a bullpen only a mother could love, the FO's Kepler obsession)  but so is virtually every other team.

Why can't we win the woebegone Central? Why can't we make noise in the playoffs? With so many imperfect teams, isn't this the year to push chips on to the table? Small changes can make a big impact this year! That isn't often the case.  Be heartened! Let's go. 

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

"Maeda's pitching ahead of the IL stint – especially the final start, where he gave up 10 earned runs – did not inspire confidence."

I wouldn't put much stock in that start as an indicator of Maeda's future performance, since he likely was pitching hurt.

[MABB1959]

After watching Buxton's back spasm at bat I really don't see him getting better.  He has knee, hip and back issues.  Back issues are tough and many would be forced to medically retire or live the rest of their lives in severe pain.  He most likely has enough money to last a lifetime,  Not sure more would be worth it later in life he can barely get out of bed.  

[Seth Stohs]

13 hours ago, Peter said:

Disagree on 2-4 that’s not acceptable-for rest of road trip-3-3 will give us winning record. Expectations should be 4-2 if we want to be taken seriously in competing against best of league. It’s almost half way point/all star break/must get to another gear and start winning games/series as well get on long winning streak!!! Let’s go Twins!!!

All that sounds good... but is anyone putting the Twins in the same category as Atlanta? The goal is always said to be to win series at home, and try to go .500 on the road. Wow, they would need to play very well to go .500 on the road against two of the top 4 teams in baseball. Of course, weird things happen in baseball. The Twins have actually generally played better against the better teams this year, but to 'expect' them to go into Atlanta and win 2 out of 3. 

[NotAboutWinning]

Sadly, I don't see how the Twins will return from this road trip still leading the division. They have Atlanta/Baltimore while Cleveland has KC/Cubs.

[HokieRif]

We aren’t out of the woods with Buxton. If anything those blasts were 3 mistakes that he connect on. 3 HRs doesn’t make up for the last month-ish of futility, swinging at balls out of the strike zone, and staring at strike 3. You could easily swap Gallo’s name in here for Buck and only have to edit out the HRs. 
 

Good to see a sign of life from Kepler, but still a lot of work to do. 
 

Lewis - please stay healthy

[Minny505]

Not scoring more than 6 runs in a game, while keeping the RS/G above 4, is quite preferable to the feast and famine offense we've seen for most of the first 2+ months. 

It means the offense is giving the team a chance to win most nights. 

[Minny505]

13 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

"He made his Saints debut on Sunday, starting and pitching four innings of four-run ball on 54 pitches."

Wasn't in one-run ball? I thought it went a little better than this.

You are correct. All things considered, it was a great first showing for Dallas, sporting a 20% SwStr%.

[Minny505]

3 hours ago, HokieRif said:

We aren’t out of the woods with Buxton. If anything those blasts were 3 mistakes that he connect on. 3 HRs doesn’t make up for the last month-ish of futility, swinging at balls out of the strike zone, and staring at strike 3. You could easily swap Gallo’s name in here for Buck and only have to edit out the HRs. 
 

Good to see a sign of life from Kepler, but still a lot of work to do. 
 

Lewis - please stay healthy

I hope the plan is to give Gallo and Kepler a month of runway*, then flip one or both, for any pitching "prospects" they can fetch. A MLB RP arm works as well, even if they are a 6th inning guy.

*Trying to stay in reality with my hope as they seem reticent to do anything about the situation prior to the trade deadline.

[Minny505]

I'm not sure why a team that is on pace to nail it's preseason projection is such a frustration for everyone. They are who we thought they were.

Sure, the shape of the production is different from what we expected, but they still are who we thought they were.

[HokieRif]

24 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

I'm not sure why a team that is on pace to nail it's preseason projection is such a frustration for everyone. They are who we thought they were.

Sure, the shape of the production is different from what we expected, but they still are who we thought they were.

I was hopeful coming into the season, but that was quickly tempered after the first series to open the year against KC and the lack of run production.  The pitching has lived-up to expectations and when they are on we can compete with anyone in MLB.  For me its just frustrating to have pitching that is more than capable and have it paired with an offense that can only do one thing consistently - strike out. Couple that with players we KNOW can hit that aren't (Buxton, Kepler, Gallo, Solano, Farmer, Correa)... Just imagine if that collection was each hitting .250 (Farmer and Solano right now are the only 2) - .250 is still a sad number, but it would be a massive improvement of where we are right now.

[Blyleven2011]

22 hours ago, Peter said:

Disagree on 2-4 that’s not acceptable-for rest of road trip-3-3 will give us winning record. Expectations should be 4-2 if we want to be taken seriously in competing against best of league. It’s almost half way point/all star break/must get to another gear and start winning games/series as well get on long winning streak!!! Let’s go Twins!!!

I like and want a long winning streak  ...

Go twins , it will give us fans some comfort  ...

[Blyleven2011]

It was a better week , but just slightly  , Kepler  and Buxton  swung the big bat's,  Lewis energizes the team , Correa  starting to get the swing right but isn't quite there yet  , Kirilloff  seems to get on base  , nice to see doubles by jeffers  or anyone for that matter ...

We might be close to the stolen base total  from last season with Taylor,  Castro  leading the way  ...

Sometimes inspiring baseball played and sometimes it's not , a little more consistency  is needed  , better batting discipline is needed  , TIRED OF ALL THE STRIKEOUTS  ...