5 Prospects the Twins Might Focus on with the #34 Overall MLB Draft Pick

[Jamie Cameron]

This week, we’ll spend some time looking at prospects the Twins might focus on with the 34th overall pick. As usual with these pieces, the goal is not to make predictions, rather, to give an overview of the type of talent that might be available to teams with this pick. I’ve used these prospects’ current ranking on the Consensus Board to cluster prospects for each team.

Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp

The Twins are in a strong position entering the 2023 MLB Draft. In addition to having the fourth largest bonus pool, north of $14.3 million, they have four top 100 picks, and three in the top 50. The 2023 Draft class is loaded with talent, one of the strongest in years. In the build up to the Draft, we're going to share some names to watch at particular spots that give an indication of the caliber of talent that might be available for a particular pick. Today, we'll dig into the Twins pick at #34 overall.
 

Jack Hurley
Position: OF, Age: 21, School: Virginia Tech, Height: 6’0, Weight: 185, B/T: L/R, Rank: 25 
Hurley is one of the more aggressive hitters in college baseball in 2023. Confined to left field due to Gavin Cross occupying center in 2022, Hurley has stepped into center field this season and has enough defense and arm to stay at the position, particularly at the beginning of his pro career. Hurley has a slightly noisy operation at the plate and expands the zone too frequently, but the production is undeniable.

At the time of writing in 2023, he managed a .320/.414/.603 line with 17 home runs, carrying an 11 BB% and 22 K%. Power is going to be the carrying tool offensively. If he can stick in center field defensively, it won’t matter that the hit tool might be a bit below average. Hurley is an energetic fiery player on the field and should be among the top forty picks in July.

Nolan Schanuel
Position: 1B/OF, Age: 21, School: FAU, Height: 6’3, Weight: 195, B/T: L/R, Rank: 29 
Schanuel has become one of the most buzz-worthy college bats in the 2023 class. Let’s start with some numbers. In 2023, he has 14 strikeouts, he’s been hit by a pitch 18 times, he’s hit 19 home runs, he walked 71 times. This adds up at a remarkable .447/.615/.868 line on the season with one of the most elite approaches in the class. Schanuel has an unusual load in his swing, his hands starting incredibly high, but it works.

The dings you can make against his profile are playing at a mid major and his defensive home. Schanuel played extremely well this season against Florida Atlantic’s better opponents (mashing three home runs in a single game against Florida for instance). He’ll likely be bumped in some models given that his defensive home has been first base throughout his college career. The bat and the offensive profile play though, figure out the defensive home later.

George Lombard Jr
Position: SS/OF, Age: 18, School: Gulliver Prep HS, FL, Height: 6’3, Weight: 190, B/T: R/R, Rank: 31 
Lombard is one of the biggest prep helium bats in the class. Initially, he was 63rd overall on the April version of the consensus board, before rising to 31st in June. He’ll likely climb higher when it’s all said and done. Lombard’s father currently serves as the bench coach for the Detroit Tigers, and Lombard Jr has had an incredibly loud spring in shooting up draft boards.

At the plate, Lombard had some swing and miss concerns entering the 2023 season that he has largely put to rest, showing a good approach, with promising in-game power. He cut down on his chase rate this spring and has done a ton of damage as a result. Defensively, he has good actions and an above average arm, although a slower first step and growing frame might eventually move him to third base. He’s part of a very strong group of prep infielders and has a chance to have five above average tools with the projectability he has left. Lombard is currently committed to Vanderbilt.

Dillon Head
Position: OF, Age: 18, School: Homewood Flossmoor HS, IL, Height: 6’0, Weight: 180, B/T: L/L, Rank: 34 
Head is an intriguing outfield prospect out of Illinois, hardly a hotbed of baseball talent. Currently committed to Clemson, he has a ton of buzz in the first two rounds in July. Head is a legitimate center fielder with plus speed who runs efficient routes and has great range as a result. A throwing arm that’s above average adds to an excellent defensive profile. With those tools alone he wouldn’t need to do a ton offensively to be a big value add, but he will be.

Head generates good bat speed and manipulates the barrel well. He has gap to gap in game power and can hit home runs to the pull side to accompany his ability to hit the ball the other way. While the power likely won’t amount to even average, the hit tool as above average and the speed and defense make him a valuable commodity at an up the middle position.

Cade Kuehler
Position: RHP, Age: 21, School: Campbell, Height: 6’0, Weight: 205, B/T: R/R, Rank: 41 
In recent seasons, the Twins have tended to focus their initial picks (rounds 1-3) on hitters before turning to college arms in later rounds. With that in mind, Kuehler may be gone before the Twins turn their attention to pitching, but he does have a profile the Twins have had success with recently. Building on the success of a rotation that was headlined by Thomas Harrington in 2022, Kuehler has made strides in 2023.

His arsenal starts with a fastball with over 21 inches of IVB (induced vertical break), which sits 93-95 mph but can get up to 98 mph. Kuehler’s primary breaking ball is a slider with good movement that he pairs with a slider/cutter hybrid. Additionally, he throws a more typically moving curveball and will occasionally mix in two seam fastballs to give hitters a different look.

Kuehler has the potential to have four above average pitches but his command has at times been spotty and is an area he’ll need to tighten as a pro. In 2023 he put together a 2.82 ERA (meaningless in college baseball) with 87 strikeouts and 24 walks in 67 innings pitched at the time of writing. There’s some reliever risk there, but this is unquestionably an intriguing arm with mid rotation upside.

Who are your favorite prospects mentioned? What are other names that intrigue you with this pick? Join our draft speculation in the comments below.

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[Matt Braun]

Appreciate the good work as always!

[Mike Sixel]

Good stuff. No 1B with that pick, please. 

[Major League Ready]

Dillion Head looks great.  I would also add Colton Ledbetter to this list.

[Jamie Cameron]

38 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Good stuff. No 1B with that pick, please. 

I agree with you in general, but I think Schanuel is a special bat who you could move to corner OF. Probably moot as he'll be gone by 34 anyways.

[Jamie Cameron]

13 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Dillion Head looks great.  I would also add Colton Ledbetter to this list.

Funny you said that. I 'assigned' him as an option to the Brewers at #33 over at Brewer Fanatic. Here's the link if you want to read that piece. He's a really intriguing prospects for sure.

https://brewerfanatic.com/news-rumors/milwaukee-brewers/5-prospects-the-brewers-might-focus-on-with-the-no-33-overall-mlb-draft-pick-r1125/

[Jocko87]

I really like the Phrilliep strategy with this pick, I'm much more comfortable taking a big swing here so long as its not a first baseman type.

[chpettit19]

Chase Davis is someone on my radar at 34. It may just be because his swing reminds me of CarGo, and I'm a sucker for pretty swings, but I see him in the 25-35 range in most rankings, and think he could be a high ceiling guy if he can stick in CF.

[Jamie Cameron]

21 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Chase Davis is someone on my radar at 34. It may just be because his swing reminds me of CarGo, and I'm a sucker for pretty swings, but I see him in the 25-35 range in most rankings, and think he could be a high ceiling guy if he can stick in CF.

He should be long gone. Top 10 talent for me.

[Mike Sixel]

53 minutes ago, Jamie Cameron said:

I agree with you in general, but I think Schanuel is a special bat who you could move to corner OF. Probably moot as he'll be gone by 34 anyways.

If he can move to a corner, then sure, it is worth a shot. But if not, he's basically Julien....and as we're seeing, it is hard to find space for a guy like that. Hard, not impossible.....

[chpettit19]

31 minutes ago, Jamie Cameron said:

He should be long gone. Top 10 talent for me.

Dang it, Jamie, can't you let a guy have his dreams?

[Dman]

I think as noted pretty early on there were always going to be some good bats into the second round.  I wouldn't be surprised if the first three picks were bats for the Twins as I think there will be good value there.  I think the run on pitchers starts mid to late 2nd round IMO. Granted teams that want their pitcher can grab them earlier than that if they want but I think the elite to very good bat first position players will go first for the most part.

It is going to be interesting to see who the Twins get at number 5 and what is left when they get to 34 and 49.  There likely will be some good pitchers left on the board at 49 so that will be an interesting pick as they won't pick again until 82.  Lot's of pitchers will be off the board by pick 82.  Still there could be a really good bat at 49 so it could be a tough call especially since they seem to do well with pitchers in later rounds. It is gonna be a fun draft.  Can't wait.

[Major League Ready]

5 minutes ago, Dman said:

I think as noted pretty early on there were always going to be some good bats into the second round.  I wouldn't be surprised if the first three picks were bats for the Twins as I think there will be good value there.  I think the run on pitchers starts mid to late 2nd round IMO. Granted teams that want their pitcher can grab them earlier than that if they want but I think the elite to very god bat first position players will go first for the most part.

It is going to be interesting to see who the Twins get at number 5 and what is left when they get to 34 and 49.  There likely will be some good pitchers left on the board at 49 so that will be an interesting pick as they won't pick again until 82.  Lot's of pitchers will be off the board by pick 82.  Still there could be a really good bat at 49 so it could be a tough call especially since they seem to do well with pitchers in later rounds. It is gonna be a fun draft.  Can't wait.

Less than a month away.  Really excited to see what they get with those first 3 picks.  It looks like they are going to get a prep player at 5.  I am hoping a great college bat is there at 34.  Yet, I would be happy to get Dillion Head (HS).  My dream scenario is Langford falls in our lap at 5 and we get Dillion Head at 34.   There are several pitchers that look good that generally mock from 42-55.  Add Sykora/Owens or Sanders at 49 and that's one heck of a draft.   I guess if we are dreaming of the perfect scenario Cameron Johnson is still there at 49.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

If we are let down by the first pick,  possibility they can have a major overpay at 34.   Jacob Gonzalez and then book ended with someone like Thomas White.  Or draft noble Meyer at an under slot contract and pick up a very good bat at the end of 34.  It would be getting cute,  but I would be fine with that I suppose.   Still hoping some how some way Langford drops to us at 5.  That would open up the rest of the draft for the way the Twins like to draft.  

[2wins87]

Good list.

Based on recent mocks the consensus seems to be that Schanuel will go around the mid 20s probably.

The high school guys are probably around 50-50 to be available there.  I like the idea of possibly going with two HS guys in their first two picks, though I don't really know who to hope for out of the group that could figure to go at #34.

Hurley feels like the most likely based on their draft tendencies and his likelihood of being there (I'd set it probably a bit over 50%).

Keuhler could be a good pick there too, though this year in particular I wouldn't mind seeing them stick with their tendencies and go for bats with all 3 of their earliest picks.  I think there's just a ton of good depth among both HS and college bats that is going to last well through the first 50 picks.

 

[TopGunn#22]

Of those you listed, I'd lean toward Hurley or Head.  I still hope Skenes is there at #5 and the Twins take him.  They can focus on bats with the next two picks.  

[Major League Ready]

38 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Of those you listed, I'd lean toward Hurley or Head.  I still hope Skenes is there at #5 and the Twins take him.  They can focus on bats with the next two picks.  

Everyone is raving about Skenes.  Hard to imagine the two prep bats going in front of Skenes.   Someone might get cute with an under slot signing in the first couple picks.  However, he also might just go first overall, and he does not make it past the 3rd pick.

[Doctor Wu]

I appreciate the article and the background on these prospects. Thanks! At this point, I hope they draft pitchers, pitchers, and even more pitchers. Find an infielder with a good arm and convert him to a pitcher (shades of Jacob DeGrom?), but just find us some good arms!

[TopGunn#22]

I agree Major League Ready.  I've just seen some talk that Skenes has a "chance" to actually fall to the Twins at #5 and faced with an opportunity to get that kind of pitching prospect with the #5 pick I'd SPRINT to the podium to draft him.  This centers around speculation that was posted here on TD that the Pirates LOVE Max Clark, a high school outfielder who is commonly projected to the Twins at #5.  If Pittsburgh took Clark #1 then Skenes could possibly fall to the Twins.  It's unlikely, but an interesting possibility.  

[Jamie Cameron]

19 hours ago, IA Bean Counter said:

If we are let down by the first pick,  possibility they can have a major overpay at 34.   Jacob Gonzalez and then book ended with someone like Thomas White.  Or draft noble Meyer at an under slot contract and pick up a very good bat at the end of 34.  It would be getting cute,  but I would be fine with that I suppose.   Still hoping some how some way Langford drops to us at 5.  That would open up the rest of the draft for the way the Twins like to draft.  

I hear that and it's logical. I just think, with the fourth largest bonus pool, you probably have enough money to get who you want through the draft anyways. $14,345,000 is going to go far.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

3 hours ago, Jamie Cameron said:

I hear that and it's logical. I just think, with the fourth largest bonus pool, you probably have enough money to get who you want through the draft anyways. $14,345,000 is going to go far.

To me though there 3 elite picks.  Crews, Langford, Skenes and the most likely scenario is those players effectively go chalk in the first 3 picks There is rumors and articles even on this site stating if Skenes is available or the high school bats the Twins would prefer to go a college bat route.  

Currently here is who most teams are tied to

Pirates -  Most likely Crews -  possibility of under slot deal to Clark

Nationals -  Skenes seems most likely,  and of the top 4 this is his most likely destination otherwise could drop.  Have done a lot of evaluation on Jenkins 

Tigers -  Tight lipped, but favor college bats.  If Crews were to somehow fall, Tigers scoop him up,  most likely Langford

Rangers - appears to prefer the high school players.  Currently most think Jenkins is rated higher than Clark

 

Crews is likely gone by pick 3 in any scenario.  Skenes is most likely picked at 2,  if not could drop to 5. Langford is most likely Detroit,  if something funky happened could fall to 5 and I believe this is the Twins ideal draft scenario.  The high school kids ultimately could go anywhere.  Maybe the Twins would pick one of the high school kids,  but they have preferred the college route due to less risk (think Cavaco).  The Twins do have the 4th most money, but for that to take place you are going to need 1 to 2 players do below market deals for the money to even come into play.  

[terrydactyls]

The baseball draft is such a crap shoot that I don't spend much time thinking about it.  That being said, I do like reading articles like this and compare it to the actual results.  With three picks in first fifty, I just hope the Twins hit on at least two of them and hopefully all three.

[Fatbat]

If Charlee Soto is a available at 34, he is a no brainer, great pick!!!

[AlwaysinModeration]

Schanuel at 34 would be great.