Roster Crunch? Who stays, who goes?

[Craig Arko]

Will be interesting to see what happens when Castro, Kiriloff, and Buxton are ready. Still, need to deal with the present first. 

[stringer bell]

Kirilloff gets a scheduled day off today (at St. Paul) while Buxton May or may not be playing for the Saints. Willi Castro may be away for the birth of a child. I hope to hear updates on all three during the Twins game tonight. 

[stringer bell]

Well, the news on Buxton can’t be good. I’ve thought the Twins had three expendable position players (Gallo, Luplow, Stevenson) with three players returning from injury to replace them (Castro, Kirilloff, Buxton). Now with Buxton at least temporarily returning to the shelf, who goes when Castro and Kirilloff are activated?

A case could be made to keep each IMHO. 

[Riverbrian]

8 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Well, the news on Buxton can’t be good. I’ve thought the Twins had three expendable position players (Gallo, Luplow, Stevenson) with three players returning from injury to replace them (Castro, Kirilloff, Buxton). Now with Buxton at least temporarily returning to the shelf, who goes when Castro and Kirilloff are activated?

A case could be made to keep each IMHO. 

And we still don't know who else will get injured in September.

Gallo is still a no-brainer first to go in my mind and I wouldn't even wait for someone to get healthy. There are probably 4 or 5 options in St. Paul that I would utilize over Gallo.  

I hate being that harsh because I'm sure the guy is just trying to stay in the game but he's been paid decently.

Enough is enough. 

[stringer bell]

40 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

And we still don't know who else will get injured in September.

Gallo is still a no-brainer first to go in my mind and I wouldn't even wait for someone to get healthy. There are probably 4 or 5 options in St. Paul that I would utilize over Gallo.  

I hate being that harsh because I'm sure the guy is just trying to stay in the game but he's been paid decently.

Enough is enough. 

Well all three "suspects" played last night. Luplow got a pinch homer that really changed the game, Stevenson made a nice catch, got an infield hit and stole two bases and Gallo got a walk, stole a base and started a nice 3-6 double play. I much prefer the 6-5 Gallo at first base over the 5-8 Solano on defense, but Kirilloff is a suitable first baseman and will hit RBI hits more than once a month. 

If I'm GM (thank goodness I'm not), Gallo gets a DFA when AK is activated. It sounds like Castro will be activated tomorrow and that will be the tough call. With Buxton's return no longer on the horizon, having Stevenson to man center field and possibly be used as a pinch runner is probably more valuable than Gallo's competence at first and the threat of him hitting a 450-ft. homer.

With Buxton out indefinitely, the rotating DH system will probably continue. Lewis DHing occasionally with Farmer at third, Julien or Polanoco DHing with the other playing second against right handers and maybe Jeffers in the DH role if he starts hitting again.

[LA Vikes Fan]

26 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Well all three "suspects" played last night. Luplow got a pinch homer that really changed the game, Stevenson made a nice catch, got an infield hit and stole two bases and Gallo got a walk, stole a base and started a nice 3-6 double play. I much prefer the 6-5 Gallo at first base over the 5-8 Solano on defense, but Kirilloff is a suitable first baseman and will hit RBI hits more than once a month. 

If I'm GM (thank goodness I'm not), Gallo gets a DFA when AK is activated. It sounds like Castro will be activated tomorrow and that will be the tough call. With Buxton's return no longer on the horizon, having Stevenson to man center field and possibly be used as a pinch runner is probably more valuable than Gallo's competence at first and the threat of him hitting a 450-ft. homer.

With Buxton out indefinitely, the rotating DH system will probably continue. Lewis DHing occasionally with Farmer at third, Julien or Polanoco DHing with the other playing second against right handers and maybe Jeffers in the DH role if he starts hitting again.

I think you might have it right but I have a slightly different take. Looks like Buxton's return is not imminent so it's really two spots we need - one today or tomorrow for Castro and one Monday for Kirilloff, maybe both on Monday so Castro can use his paternity leave. Assuming no one is going on the Il, I would have predicted Castro for Luplow. Why call up Stevenson if you don't plan on him staying at least a few games?  Did Luplow's HR win him another chance? I hope not, I'm still not sold. Gallo still can't hit but he can play 1B better than the rest of the crowd. With Buxton's setback, do we keep Stevenson to play CF or is Castro enough? Is there anyone who needs to go to the IL? Both Taylor and Julien have bad hammys and look like they aren't running well. 

My prediction is a little different.  Castro up, Taylor or Julien goes on the 10 day IL or Luplow back to AAA (he still has options this year). AK up Monday for Luplow if Taylor or Julien is on the Il, takes a spot if both need an IL stint, or for Stevenson if Taylor is ready to play full bore. Gallo stays although Lord knows why. Stevenson stays to play CF until both Castro and Taylor are ready to play CF every day.   

 One other thought. Julien has been really struggling the last 20-30 days. Even his stats over the last 30 games aren't good - .226/.336/.312 (.648), with 2 HRs, 8 RBIs, and 33 SOs in 93 ABs. He really struggled last night. Time for an IL or option re-set? He's not playing 2B and we have a lot of guys who are hitting better that can DH. Wouldn't shock me to see him as one of the odd men out for the next 2 weeks as we work through the roster crunch. 

[stringer bell]

Castro activated for MAT today. That leaves Kirilloff rehabbing and Buxton pausing at St. Paul. While I'm not certain, I would think Kirilloff should be on a plane to Cleveland sometime today. Due to Taylor's injury, Stevenson will stay on the roster for sure. The next two candidates would be Luplow and Gallo, with Gallo being the one whose position and handedness most matches AK.

[Craig Arko]

34 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Castro activated for MAT today. That leaves Kirilloff rehabbing and Buxton pausing at St. Paul. While I'm not certain, I would think Kirilloff should be on a plane to Cleveland sometime today. Due to Taylor's injury, Stevenson will stay on the roster for sure. The next two candidates would be Luplow and Gallo, with Gallo being the one whose position and handedness most matches AK.

Might see Julien to the IL to rest legs when Kiriloff is activated.

[stringer bell]

Phil Miller is reporting that Louie Varland is headed to Cleveland to replace Sands on the active roster. 
 

Mentioned elsewhere that no move is imminent with Kirilloff, who is 7-18 with two homers on his rehab. 

[Craig Arko]

7 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Phil Miller is reporting that Louie Varland is headed to Cleveland to replace Sands on the active roster. 
 

Mentioned elsewhere that no move is imminent with Kirilloff, who is 7-18 with two homers on his rehab. 

Probably see Kirilloff on Friday, then.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Not nice to leave Kirilloff in AAA after what he’s been through. They don’t need Luplow’s right handed bat. They already have Correa, Lewis, Polanco, Buxton and Taylor are right handed, their catchers are right handed, and has been rightly pointed out Solano is having a nice season. Plenty of capable right handed bats. Bring up Kirilloff and bring up Larnach while you’re at it. 

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Not nice to leave Kirilloff in AAA after what he’s been through. They don’t need Luplow’s right handed bat. They already have Correa, Lewis, Polanco, Buxton and Taylor are right handed, their catchers are right handed, and has been rightly pointed out Solano is having a nice season. Plenty of capable right handed bats. Bring up Kirilloff and bring up Larnach while you’re at it. 

I really don't see any place for Larnach for the rest of the season. He has hit below average in AAA and has been passed by Wallner. If someone else was needed to play outfield I think Austin Martin would be a better fit than Trevor Larnach. I'm disappointed that they are slow-walking Kirilloff's rehab and I wonder if it would be the same if the Twins were only or behind by a game or two. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

24 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I really don't see any place for Larnach for the rest of the season. He has hit below average in AAA and has been passed by Wallner. If someone else was needed to play outfield I think Austin Martin would be a better fit than Trevor Larnach. I'm disappointed that they are slow-walking Kirilloff's rehab and I wonder if it would be the same if the Twins were only or behind by a game or two. 

I don’t disagree about Larnach. For me, it’s that he is a personal fave, and I thought the front office was high on him, and he started the season in MLB until he caught a case of pneumonia. It sure looks like Wallner is the better player at this point. I think there is room for both Larnach in left and Wallner in right in 2024. Or, if Julien is hurt or slumping, that looks like an easy way to get Larnach back up too. 

Larnach might not play much here for the Twins in 2023 but I love the idea of bringing him along for the ride. 

[stringer bell]

9 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I don’t disagree about Larnach. For me, it’s that he is a personal fave, and I thought the front office was high on him, and he started the season in MLB until he caught a case of pneumonia. It sure looks like Wallner is the better player at this point. I think there is room for both Larnach in left and Wallner in right in 2024. Or, if Julien is hurt or slumping, that looks like an easy way to get Larnach back up too. 

Larnach might not play much here for the Twins in 2023 but I love the idea of bringing him along for the ride. 

I think Larnach is on the trade block in the off season. There are better prospects getting close to the majors and I also believe Max Kepler will be back in 2024.That isn't going to leave any place for Trevor unless there's an injury. He's had three partial seasons and has failed to secure major league status. It's getting late for him. I also like Larnach, but his production just hasn't been there. Of course, an injury could create a place for Trevor and he might thrive.

[FlyingFinn]

26 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I think Larnach is on the trade block in the off season. There are better prospects getting close to the majors and I also believe Max Kepler will be back in 2024.

I agree that Larnach will be on the trade block this off-season. Though, I think Kepler should be on the trade block. His trade value will never be higher than it is now and it's just my opinion that he is more likely to return to 2020-2022 and early 2023 form than to duplicate what he has done in the last half of 2023. I would love an outfield of Martin, Lewis and Wallner with Castro off the bench (this assumes Buxton can't play CF) with Lee at 3B and Julien at 2B. Very young but I also think we will have the OF depth in St. Paul to help out if someone fails. 

Look out in 2025 as we could have Emma Rodriguez and possibly Jenkins banging on the door of the Twins OF. Of course, if the Twins don't value our Saints quite as much now, that could be why they go with Kepler for one more year (and I do think that is what the Twins plan to do at this point).

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

11 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

I agree that Larnach will be on the trade block this off-season. Though, I think Kepler should be on the trade block. His trade value will never be higher than it is now and it's just my opinion that he is more likely to return to 2020-2022 and early 2023 form than to duplicate what he has done in the last half of 2023. I would love an outfield of Martin, Lewis and Wallner with Castro off the bench (this assumes Buxton can't play CF) with Lee at 3B and Julien at 2B. Very young but I also think we will have the OF depth in St. Paul to help out if someone fails. 

Look out in 2025 as we could have Emma Rodriguez and possibly Jenkins banging on the door of the Twins OF. Of course, if the Twins don't value our Saints quite as much now, that could be why they go with Kepler for one more year (and I do think that is what the Twins plan to do at this point).

I agree - I think it would be a huge mistake to try to squeeze another season out of Kepler. Let’s just appreciate what he has done here in the second half and hope he runs into one in the postseason (because you know he is going to be in the starting lineup). But the 2024 outfield crunch is helped by letting Kepler go, and sliding Wallner to right. Maybe Larnach’s future is as a LF platoon/PH bat but there is still value in that. 

[tony&rodney]

Larnach still has potential, despite his rough year. The Twins will hope to duplicate the Arraez-P.Lopez trade, which will be names far above Trevor.

Trades depend totally on player value perceived by negotiating teams. If you want to acquire a good player, think about who you would want if you were a participant in discussions about Twins worth trading for in return for one of your valued players.

[FlyingFinn]

Luplow DFA really makes it more likely that Stephonson makes the 1st round playoff runner for his base stealing and defensive skills.

[stringer bell]

Today was the target day to activate Stewart. I don’t know if plans have changed, but there will be some tough active roster and 40-man decisions coming. There is room to activate Stewart with the Luplow DFA, but the other 60-day guys (Gordon, Alcalá and Paddack) will need to have room cleared whether they are on the postseason roster or not. I would guess Winder is the guy drawing the short straw if Stewart is activated today. If Paddack and/or Alcalá are activated someone else will have to go (Floro, Funderburk?). 

[Road trip]

13 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Today was the target day to activate Stewart. I don’t know if plans have changed, but there will be some tough active roster and 40-man decisions coming. There is room to activate Stewart with the Luplow DFA, but the other 60-day guys (Gordon, Alcalá and Paddack) will need to have room cleared whether they are on the postseason roster or not. I would guess Winder is the guy drawing the short straw if Stewart is activated today. If Paddack and/or Alcalá are activated someone else will have to go (Floro, Funderburk?). 

I suspect Floro loses his spot, if Twins need to add Paddack or Alcala (and I'm skeptical on both).

Funderburk would be claimed immediately if he were removed from the 40 man roster.  We aren't deep in lefties, so he's absolutely a must-keep for next year, even if he may not make the post season roster this year (although I'd be tempted to roster him depending on how much left-handed power our future opponent turns out to have).

The other potential 40 man cuts would be Celestino (possible) and Gallo (too obvious, so it won't happen).

[Mike Sixel]

I'd DFA Gordon at this point if they need 60 man space. He's been replaced by Castro. 

[jorgenswest]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd DFA Gordon at this point if they need 60 man space. He's been replaced by Castro. 

He is on the 60 day IL so he isn’t taking space until the winter. I don’t think he has time to get up to major league speed for the playoffs but that isn’t based on anything but a guess. I expect he will remain on the IL.

I would suggest that any decision to DFA should be based on his 2022 performance. This year’s small sample was skewed by a BABIP of .179 which had been .300 or better in his previous seasons. Gordon’s 2023 xBA and xSLG based on the frequency and quality of contact were both better than Castro’s. 

I would keep both on the 40 and I expect Gordon in 2024 to be close to his 2022. If the Twins front office elects to DFA Gordon they should do so expecting the 2022 performance and assessing that it won’t be helpful to the team.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

He is on the 60 day IL so he isn’t taking space until the winter. I don’t think he has time to get up to major league speed for the playoffs but that isn’t based on anything but a guess. I expect he will remain on the IL.

I would suggest that any decision to DFA should be based on his 2022 performance. This year’s small sample was skewed by a BABIP of .179 which had been .300 or better in his previous seasons. Gordon’s 2023 xBA and xSLG based on the frequency and quality of contact were both better than Castro’s. 

I would keep both on the 40 and I expect Gordon in 2024 to be close to his 2022. If the Twins front office elects to DFA Gordon they should do so expecting the 2022 performance and assessing that it won’t be helpful to the team.

I was pretty clear I'd only do so if they need the 40 man space.....otherwise why would you? Someone upthread implied they'd need it, if not, then just leave him there.

[Vanimal46]

Royce Lewis continues to get snake bit with injuries. Really sad news on a day that should be a celebration. 

[Mike Sixel]

12 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Royce Lewis continues to get snake bit with injuries. Really sad news on a day that should be a celebration. 

We just cannot have nice things. Good luck to him. Sigh.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

We just cannot have nice things. Good luck to him. Sigh.

And Luplow is back. Yay?

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

And Luplow is back. Yay?

I hope that is a sign they expect Lewis and Correa back for the playoffs. Adding Luplow back to the 40 gives them the most flexibility. They can comfortably DFA him in a week if it looks like Paddack will be ready and needs a 40 man spot.

On the other hand if both are out for the playoffs Luplow probably doesn’t help as much on the bench as Martin would with his versatility. The problem with Martin if they add him is that they need to be really sure they want to devote a playoff spot to him because he isn’t going to be DFA’d like Luplow can be.

They will need to make a move (soon?) to get Stewart back on the 40. Henriquez? I hate to let loose a 23 year old. Moran or Sands? They both will be 26 next year but have an option remaining. Balazovic is a year younger but out of options. Celestino? He is the same age as Martin and has performed pretty similarly. After a slow start returning from injury he has a .406 OBP the last 90 days and .455 the month. I think I would bring back Stewart for one of the young pitchers. Can Gallo be put on the 60 day IL? Seems unlikely while in rehab but that could be an option.

[IaBeanCounter]

Don't the Twins have an open slot on the 40 man, 28 on the active, 7 in the minors and 4 on the 10 day IL?  Or am I missing something?

[jorgenswest]

29 minutes ago, IaBeanCounter said:

Don't the Twins have an open slot on the 40 man, 28 on the active, 7 in the minors and 4 on the 10 day IL?  Or am I missing something?

I thought the open spot was created when Luplow was DFA’d and then he took that 40th spot back but your count makes sense. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I hope that is a sign they expect Lewis and Correa back for the playoffs. Adding Luplow back to the 40 gives them the most flexibility. They can comfortably DFA him in a week if it looks like Paddack will be ready and needs a 40 man spot.

On the other hand if both are out for the playoffs Luplow probably doesn’t help as much on the bench as Martin would with his versatility. The problem with Martin if they add him is that they need to be really sure they want to devote a playoff spot to him because he isn’t going to be DFA’d like Luplow can be.

They will need to make a move (soon?) to get Stewart back on the 40. Henriquez? I hate to let loose a 23 year old. Moran or Sands? They both will be 26 next year but have an option remaining. Balazovic is a year younger but out of options. Celestino? He is the same age as Martin and has performed pretty similarly. After a slow start returning from injury he has a .406 OBP the last 90 days and .455 the month. I think I would bring back Stewart for one of the young pitchers. Can Gallo be put on the 60 day IL? Seems unlikely while in rehab but that could be an option.

If Floro still on the roster? Stewart can take his spot.....he's not pitching in a playoff game.