Are Twins Starters Pitching Longer in 2023?

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota Twins starters are off to a tremendous start to the 2023 season. So, how do they compare to the rest of the league, and are they pitching longer into games?

Image courtesy of Peter Aiken, USA Today Sports

The Twins' front office knew it needed to add to the organization's starting pitching depth, and that's what they have done in recent years. Currently, every member of the starting staff was acquired via trade from Kenta Maeda in 2020 to Pablo Lopez in 2023. On paper, this is an unsustainable strategy to build a rotation unless the front office has a lot of faith in its ability to win trades. 

Minnesota has been winning on the field, which can erase the memories of unfavorable trades. Throughout the spring, the Twins coaches and players discussed starters pitching deeper into games. Sonny Gray is the veteran leader on the pitching staff, and he made it clear that the starters won't be satisfied with short outings.

In recent seasons, the Twins have needed to bring in veteran starters to fill the fourth or fifth spot in the rotation. Many of those moves did not work out in the Twins' favor. Last season, Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer were among the team leaders in innings pitched, but the Twins couldn't leave them in for a third time through the order. That's one reason those players remained unsigned for most of the winter. 

Will the Twins be able to get more innings from their starting pitchers? Let's dive into the numbers in the first trip through the rotation. All statistics are through games played on April 4, 2023. 

During the 2022 season, Twins starters averaged 4.83 innings per start. Three teams ranked lower than Minnesota in average innings pitched from starters, the Washington Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays' inclusion on this list is skewed because they continue to utilize an opener, which is why their starters pitched over 14 fewer innings than any other MLB team last year. Injuries obviously played a role in the players the Twins used last season, with 14 different pitchers making at least one start. 

Entering play on Wednesday, the Twins ranked fifth in baseball in innings pitched by starting pitchers (5.26 IP/G). The teams that rank ahead of Minnesota include the Dodgers (5.83 IP/G), the Padres (5.72 IP/G), the Brewers (5.67 IP/G), and the White Sox (5.33 IP/G). Every Twins starter has pitched at least five innings, with Joe Ryan completing six frames in his first start. The bullpen has also been vital to start the season, but starting pitching is key for clubs looking to contend. 

Twins starters have also been effective in how many total pitches in each outing. Minnesota ranks 20th among teams for pitches thrown by their starting staff, but nine teams have played more games than the Twins. On a pitches-per-game basis, Twins starters have averaged 82.6 pitches per game, ranking 18th in baseball. It has been a small sample size so far, and Maeda likely would have added to this total had he not been removed early from his first start.  

Minnesota's starters rank near the top of baseball in multiple pitching categories, including ERA (1st), K (7th), BA (2nd), WHIP (3rd), and FIP (3rd). The Twins have also been able to strand runners at an incredible rate (99.2 LOB%), which is a total that is not sustainable. In 2022, the Twins ranked 16th in MLB with a 72.9 LOB%, while the Dodgers led baseball at 79.4%.

It's been a great start to the season for the starters, and there will be some regression in the weeks ahead. However, there are signs the Twins are more willing to let starters pitch deeper into games than in previous seasons. What have been your impressions of the Twins' rotation so far? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[twinstalker]

...we ask after one turn of the rotation and compare to a year with shortened spring training.

[ashbury]

We say we like players who speak from the heart and don't give us Bull Durham style corporate PR.  Then we throw Sonny Gray's words back at him when he guts out a decent performance without his best stuff.  I'd like to see the season play out further than this, before singling him out.

(I realize that wasn't the thrust of this article.)

[Mike Sixel]

This doesn't even discuss previous years, or why they pitched so few innings last year?

[jorgenswest]

If there is a difference it won’t be a change in philosophy. It will be a change in conditions. 

Consider the top 5 pitchers in starts from last year. Bundy, Archer and Smeltzer are gone. Sonny Gray was on the IL three times. They had one healthy mid rotation pitcher last year in Joe Ryan. He typically saw the top of line up a third time through. The other two (Ober and Winder) with double digits starts came with a history of injuries and limited innings in a season.

Baldelli will let good healthy pitchers see the line up a third time through and go deeper. How often did he have that opportunity last year? Hopefully that opportunity occurs a lot more this year.

[ToriiRules!!]

Good to see Sonny get 7 when he was dealing usually Rocco would’ve pulled him after 5

[FlyingFinn]

Yes. See the Sonny Gray game today.

[Melissa]

10 hours ago, ToriiRules!! said:

Good to see Sonny get 7 when he was dealing usually Rocco would’ve pulled him after 5

I’m not sure, but I think Gray went past five innings last year when he was doing well.
Sonny I think was stirring the pot in the quote from March 26 embedded here - it was his fellow starters (esp Archer, of course) who were pulled early. Sonny’s saying, “c’mon guys let’s do better!”

[jorgenswest]

3 hours ago, Melissa said:

I’m not sure, but I think Gray went past five innings last year when he was doing well.
Sonny I think was stirring the pot in the quote from March 26 embedded here - it was his fellow starters (esp Archer, of course) who were pulled early. Sonny’s saying, “c’mon guys let’s do better!”

I agree and would add when healthy.

His first start was due to the short spring. He left injured in his second start. Once he returned starts 3 and 4 were short as he built up. Starts 5-7 went at least 6.

Trip 2 to IL. Two starts to build up and then a 7 inning start. They were more cautious after the second trip to IL and we’re pulling him around 80 pitches eventually building to 90. If he pitched well he was getting through 6 in 90.

They may have been overly cautious in the build up but he wasn’t pulled due to analytics. Two trips to the IL was the larger factor. In September he won two consecutive starts while facing 25 batters in each only to be followed by trip 3 to the IL in the next start.

 

 

[Melissa]

Thanks for this detailed info, jorgenswest. Confirms my less informed memory!

[Otaknam]

I’m not convinced yet that Baldelli and the FO will allow the starters to go deep into games. There were too many head scratching times last year when Rocco removed efficient starters after five innings. Hopefully they have seen the light.

[Squirrel]

24 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

I’m not convinced yet that Baldelli and the FO will allow the starters to go deep into games. There were too many head scratching times last year when Rocco removed efficient starters after five innings. Hopefully they have seen the light.

I’d say there were a few, but not many, given the starting staff, their injury concerns, their records. A lot of context missing from that.

[JD-TWINS]

20 hours ago, ashbury said:

We say we like players who speak from the heart and don't give us Bull Durham style corporate PR.  Then we throw Sonny Gray's words back at him when he guts out a decent performance without his best stuff.  I'd like to see the season play out further than this, before singling him out.

(I realize that wasn't the thrust of this article.)

13K’s - 7.0 innings - 1 run……nice 2nd outing for Sonny. 1 run through 12 innings. The entire rotation has looked fantastic! Let’s check back in Memorial Day.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

13K’s - 7.0 innings - 1 run……nice 2nd outing for Sonny

Nice?  Nicest of the day in the majors, according to baseball-reference.com's Game Score metric.

[ToriiRules!!]

15 hours ago, Melissa said:

I’m not sure, but I think Gray went past five innings last year when he was doing well.
Sonny I think was stirring the pot in the quote from March 26 embedded here - it was his fellow starters (esp Archer, of course) who were pulled early. Sonny’s saying, “c’mon guys let’s do better!”

You’re right he was very vocal about going past 5 last year but Rocco still likes to pull starters before they go through the lineup for the 3rd time