Josh Winder the Reliever?

[Cody Pirkl]

Josh Winder went from a trendy pick to round out the Twins rotation before the 2022 season to a Triple-A reliever headed into the 2023 season. After so many ups and downs, what could Winder’s future hold?

Image courtesy of Jonathan Dyer, USA TODAY Sports

 

For several years, Josh Winder has repeatedly dealt with the vague “shoulder impingement” diagnosis. Once considered an up-and-coming starting pitcher after posting a 1.98 ERA across 54 Double-A innings in 2021, the injuries have finally forced the Twins to forego stretching him out into a starter this season.

Aside from injuries, Winder had several other red flags that clouded his future as a starting pitcher. He looked the part of a mid-rotation arm when his fastball velocity was there, but it was often inconsistent. The pitch allowed a .713 slugging % in his debut 2022 season. His slider and changeup each garnered 30+% whiff rates, but his overall 16.4% strikeout rate ranked in the 10th percentile league-wide. Having a pitch get punished so severely and not being able to punch hitters out was a difficult tightrope to walk. Could we see improvements across the board out of the bullpen?

The first hope, of course, is that a 100+ inning starter’s workload allows Winder to be available for the entirety of a season for the first time in years. There’s also hope for a dramatic improvement in performance as well. 

The Twins may have plans for Winder to change the shape of his fastball which could be behind his struggles with the pitch. Regardless of any tweaks, his 94 mph average in 2022 as a starter paints a rosy picture of what kind of velocity the pitch could pick up. We’d seen 95s and 96s on occasion from Winder when healthy, and the hope is that we could see him sit in the mid to high 90s if he’s a one-inning reliever, creating more margin for error on the pitch.

The Twins have also shown they’re not shy regarding having relievers throw their best pitch most of the time. From Matt Wisler to the current success of Griffin Jax, there’s no reason to believe that Winder won’t be throwing a ton of sliders considering it’s arguably his best pitch. Allowing a .186 batting average against and .320 slugging %, it’s possible we see him bully right-handed hitters with his breaking ball and use a mid to high 90s fastball as a secondary as we’ve seen with Griffin Jax.

Unlike Jax when he moved to relief in 2022, Winder already has a ready-to-use changeup, making him a formidable matchup regardless of the handedness of the hitter. The pitch received a 50 future grade on Fangraph’s scouting scale and while it wasn’t quite as dominant as the slider in 2022, the pitch was more than adequate at getting hitters out and generating whiffs.

It would be a stretch to call Josh Winder becoming a valuable reliever a smashing success, but it’s a route many starting pitching prospects take among all baseball teams. Despite his peak 2021 minor league season suggesting a future as a starter, things can change quickly in a pitcher’s career, and Winder’s red flags and injuries appear to have finally proven to be too much for the Twins. With him already manning a 40-man roster spot, a move to the bullpen not only offers hope of keeping Winder on the field but also fast-tracks him to possibly contributing to the MLB team should he hit the ground running in his new role.

At 26 years old, it was time to try something new given the last few lost seasons Josh Winder has endured. He’s still a talented pitcher, but it may be time for the Twins to get value from him at the Major League level any way they can. The bullpen may be the most straightforward option. Are the Twins making the right choice not stretching Winder out into a starter? Should he stay in the bullpen moving forward? Let us know below.

 

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[Dman]

Given the shoulder issues I don't see that they had much choice.  If he can become another Jax he still holds a lot of value as high end reliever.  I don't know a ton about impingement but once pitchers have shoulder issues it can be the beginning of the end.  Hoping shorter stints will help his body\arm recover better.  Only way to know is to try. 

[JD-TWINS]

Arm struggles necessitate a change in use.

Paddack - Ryan - López - Varland - SWR - Prielipp - Ober at a minimum are all ahead of Winder going into ‘24…….also, FA or extension of an existing arm.

IMO both Winder & Balazovic should be shifted to try and add depth for the Alcala/Jax roles. They could both have plus stuff to face 3-4 batters per outing!

[mikelink45]

Good essay - what do the Twins think?  I know they will not tell us, but it seems a shame to waste a good pitcher.

[bird]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Arm struggles necessitate a change in use.

Paddack - Ryan - López - Varland - SWR - Prielipp - Ober at a minimum are all ahead of Winder going into ‘24…….also, FA or extension of an existing arm.

IMO both Winder & Balazovic should be shifted to try and add depth for the Alcala/Jax roles. They could both have plus stuff to face 3-4 batters per outing!

I'd eventually add Henriquez and Canterino to the discussion, and frankly, I have greater confidence that others, such as Dobnak, Megill, and even Ortega stand better odds than Balazovic to be future contributors (hope to be wrong).

And with Ober, Varland, SWR, eventually Paddack, and maybe even Headrick as truly viable injury and/or poor performance  replacements,  I'd love it if there were so many strong showings among those mentioned above that they could fetch a legit prospect and a lottery ticket or two by moving guys like Maeda, Pagan, maybe even one more at the deadline.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Good essay - what do the Twins think?  I know they will not tell us, but it seems a shame to waste a good pitcher.

Given his history of shoulder injuries it is better to try to get useful MLB innings out of him now than it is to waste his limited number of healthy pitches in AAA. His career might not last much past age 30. Pitchers have an expiration date.

The team also has a lot less depth in the bullpen than they do in the rotation. Winder is behind Ober, SWR and Varland for a spot in the rotation. He's probably ahead of Sands for a spot in the bullpen.

[nicksaviking]

Very excited to see Winder in the pen. I wouldn't normally hurry to move him from the rotation except for the numerous prospects already ahead of him. I know he's being considered for multiple innings now, but I think he's going to end up being a high leverage guy if not by the end of the season, than by next year.

[Mike Sixel]

It's better for him to the in a MLB bullpen, than in AAA starting. As with Jax......teams and players insisting that a person try to stay a starter, and not make real money is a bummer. Do the right thing! Make him a great RP.

Also, dang, that's a lot of other guys ahead of him in the pecking / healthy order right now.

[Jocko87]

26 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Ditto to get him in the pen now given the players ahead of him and his shoulder issues.

Could he become Jax 2.0?  That sure would be nice and would give us another RP to count on and reduce opportunities for Pagan.

Lastly, recall that Johan Santana started as a reliever and then transitioned to a SP.  Not saying that Winder would go that route but it is a possibility.  Just because he starts in the pen does not mean he stays there especially if we lose Maeda, Mahle, and Gray to FA after this season.

Shane McClanahan for the Rays too.  They slowly built him up to starting in the majors.  Going to the pen now does not automatically rule out starting in the future.   Getting the confidence built up getting big league hitters out regularly can do wonders, now just work on getting more of them out in each outing.  He may be able to retain any velocity gains made from going to the pen that way.  Everyone develops a little different. 

[DocBauer]

I have to admit this is a big bummer for me. When I see someone like Winder, a top 10 prospect, with increased velocity and some good secondary stuff suddenly have a "shoulder impingement" without an actual physical injury reported I think rest and rehab, get him back to 100%, and let it ride. He EARNED his shot in 2022 to be that middle/long/swing man and didn't look bad. I was confused a bit that his FB was his worst pitch, but he was a rookie, and sometimes all it takes is a little adjustment here and there in location, sequence, or grip to make a difference. Sometimes, it's actually throwing a little slower for better location and movement.

This is one of those times where I wish the FO would be a little more informative and tell us what they are thinking. Do they just believe his arm/shoulder are just built better for the pen instead of the rotation? If so, he just jumped ahead of Sands and probably Laweryson as the best middle man in the pen going forward. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Excellent article.  Let’s see. . . 

Some injury concerns?  Check

Several prospects passing him in the pecking order?  Check

Good “stuff”?  Check

Maximizing the personnel on the roster?  Check

Looks like he could be successful in the pen?  Check

Twins have had success converting starters to relievers?  Check

He checks all the boxes for me.  Give him a key to the bullpen door!

[Doctor Gast]

I think Winder could become a SP because he has some secondary pitches to go with his FB & slider, if they handle him right, reshaping his FB should help. Also knowing his shoulder tendencies, they should have eased him in slowly. Go from sparingly used as a glorified short RP to a full fledged SP, IMO wasn't wise. They should have lengthen his innings as long relief where was thriving, then do some spot starting. Smeltzer had been all ramped up for sometime & should have called up to fill that SP role, left by those early injuries.

To reiterate, I think Winder could still become a SP, if taken slower & used inside his profile. Like MikeLink said it's waste to lose a starter.

Another note: When FO should have closed their mouth about converting Graterol to RP, they didn't. He looked great in '19, the whole MLB were in awe of him as a SP. It was exciting to watch. Then they broadcasted him as RP, which destroyed his value. Maybe they got gun shy. But the likes of Duran & Winder, MLB has doubts of their ability to stick there. So IMO it doesn't matter much.

[HrbieFan]

23 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Arm struggles necessitate a change in use.

Paddack - Ryan - López - Varland - SWR - Prielipp - Ober at a minimum are all ahead of Winder going into ‘24…….also, FA or extension of an existing arm.

IMO both Winder & Balazovic should be shifted to try and add depth for the Alcala/Jax roles. They could both have plus stuff to face 3-4 batters per outing!

Prielipp is years away from the big club. 

[saviking]

Much prefer Winder over Sands ...

[Linus]

I’m not that excited about Winder. Shoulder problems are a bugger and his fastball gets creamed. Pretty far fetched to think he would ever be a reliable starter so see if work the Jax magic with him.