Josh Winder the Reliever?

For several years, Josh Winder has repeatedly dealt with the vague “shoulder impingement” diagnosis. Once considered an up-and-coming starting pitcher after posting a 1.98 ERA across 54 Double-A innings in 2021, the injuries have finally forced the Twins to forego stretching him out into a starter this season.

Aside from injuries, Winder had several other red flags that clouded his future as a starting pitcher. He looked the part of a mid-rotation arm when his fastball velocity was there, but it was often inconsistent. The pitch allowed a .713 slugging % in his debut 2022 season. His slider and changeup each garnered 30+% whiff rates, but his overall 16.4% strikeout rate ranked in the 10th percentile league-wide. Having a pitch get punished so severely and not being able to punch hitters out was a difficult tightrope to walk. Could we see improvements across the board out of the bullpen?

The first hope, of course, is that a 100+ inning starter’s workload allows Winder to be available for the entirety of a season for the first time in years. There’s also hope for a dramatic improvement in performance as well. 

The Twins may have plans for Winder to change the shape of his fastball which could be behind his struggles with the pitch. Regardless of any tweaks, his 94 mph average in 2022 as a starter paints a rosy picture of what kind of velocity the pitch could pick up. We’d seen 95s and 96s on occasion from Winder when healthy, and the hope is that we could see him sit in the mid to high 90s if he’s a one-inning reliever, creating more margin for error on the pitch.

The Twins have also shown they’re not shy regarding having relievers throw their best pitch most of the time. From Matt Wisler to the current success of Griffin Jax, there’s no reason to believe that Winder won’t be throwing a ton of sliders considering it’s arguably his best pitch. Allowing a .186 batting average against and .320 slugging %, it’s possible we see him bully right-handed hitters with his breaking ball and use a mid to high 90s fastball as a secondary as we’ve seen with Griffin Jax.

Unlike Jax when he moved to relief in 2022, Winder already has a ready-to-use changeup, making him a formidable matchup regardless of the handedness of the hitter. The pitch received a 50 future grade on Fangraph’s scouting scale and while it wasn’t quite as dominant as the slider in 2022, the pitch was more than adequate at getting hitters out and generating whiffs.

It would be a stretch to call Josh Winder becoming a valuable reliever a smashing success, but it’s a route many starting pitching prospects take among all baseball teams. Despite his peak 2021 minor league season suggesting a future as a starter, things can change quickly in a pitcher’s career, and Winder’s red flags and injuries appear to have finally proven to be too much for the Twins. With him already manning a 40-man roster spot, a move to the bullpen not only offers hope of keeping Winder on the field but also fast-tracks him to possibly contributing to the MLB team should he hit the ground running in his new role.

At 26 years old, it was time to try something new given the last few lost seasons Josh Winder has endured. He’s still a talented pitcher, but it may be time for the Twins to get value from him at the Major League level any way they can. The bullpen may be the most straightforward option. Are the Twins making the right choice not stretching Winder out into a starter? Should he stay in the bullpen moving forward? Let us know below.