Twins 2023 Position Analysis: Relief Pitcher

[farmerguychris]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Rocco doesn't set the team. 

Agreed - but does he have any power in regards to who he has on his team?  Rocco is the one oftentimes blamed (fair or not) when he sends Pagan out there.  Could Rocco simply tell the F.O. that Pagan isn't making this team out of spring training, or would they laugh at him?  To be responsible for a player you don't want on the team isn't fair - not saying Rocco feels that way.  Just hope he is only used in blow outs at this point.

[Battle ur tail off]

Where are the guys that can go multiple innings? This is where the Twins staff failed last year. Rocco burns these guys up one inning at a time daily. WE NEED REAL BRIDGE GUYS. Yanking starters after 4 and 5 KILLS bullpens full of one inning guys and that is what you have another collection of there.

Ober should be in the bullpen. There is ZERO need for Pagan. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Battle ur tail off said:

Where are the guys that can go multiple innings? This is where the Twins staff failed last year. Rocco burns these guys up one inning at a time daily. WE NEED REAL BRIDGE GUYS. Yanking starters after 4 and 5 KILLS bullpens full of one inning guys and that is what you have another collection of there.

Ober should be in the bullpen. There is ZERO need for Pagan. 

They aren't pulling healthy good pitchers after 4 or 5 innings....They didn't last year, the year before, or the year before. I do agree, though, that with Maeda and Mahle, I'd like one bridge guy (Hoffman?) in the bullpen (not Ober, he's a legit starter). I'd prefer Ober start, and Maeda be in the pen (and just give him his starter bonus).

[Battle ur tail off]

9 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They aren't pulling healthy good pitchers after 4 or 5 innings....They didn't last year, the year before, or the year before. I do agree, though, that with Maeda and Mahle, I'd like one bridge guy (Hoffman?) in the bullpen (not Ober, he's a legit starter). I'd prefer Ober start, and Maeda be in the pen (and just give him his starter bonus).

He will. You can take it to the bank. Rocco will not let his guys go 3 times through the order most nights. Maybe I watched a different season than you did. I understand if they are sitting at 5 complete and 75 pitches while giving up 0 or 1 runs.

If his starter is in the 4th or 5th inning and has completed 2 times through the order and given up more than 1 run, he pulls them pretty consistently. No matter which pitcher they were.

I just saw so many games be lost with last year when the Twins counted on 4-5 guys a night to be on their game most nights to win a ballgame.

[chpettit19]

6 hours ago, Battle ur tail off said:

He will. You can take it to the bank. Rocco will not let his guys go 3 times through the order most nights. Maybe I watched a different season than you did. I understand if they are sitting at 5 complete and 75 pitches while giving up 0 or 1 runs.

If his starter is in the 4th or 5th inning and has completed 2 times through the order and given up more than 1 run, he pulls them pretty consistently. No matter which pitcher they were.

I just saw so many games be lost with last year when the Twins counted on 4-5 guys a night to be on their game most nights to win a ballgame.

This is provably false. He didn't manage that way with either Ryan or Gray last year. Didn't even do it with Paddack in his handful of starts. He did it with Bundy and Archer. Before injuries to Gray, and Covid wiping Ryan out, they were both going 6 or 7 innings regularly. The 3rd time through the order stuff was for bad pitchers. Unfortunately the Twins had way too many starts from bad pitchers last year. Rocco didn't take good, healthy pitchers out because they were coming around the order the 3rd time.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, miracleb said:

Is Pagan injured?  I don't think he has pitched in over a week(?)

I don't believe he's injured. But he was at the WBC so he wasn't with the team if you're questioning him not pitching for the Twins in a while.

[chpettit19]

6 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Excellent article!  The bullpen is still a question mark IMO.  But it potentially looks like it could be ok.  I agree with your assessment of their early season struggles.  Everyone seems to poo poo away poor games in April and may because it's early.  Don't those games count?  Apparently not.  The Twins would have had a much better record had Pagan in particular not been so rotten early in the season.  I believe his poor pitching in key situations was tied to around 10 losses last year but that's ok because they keep telling us games in April don't matter.  The Twins insistence on sticking with Pagan was strange.  I hope he bounces back and has a great year, even early when the games don't apparently matter.  I think I will give up if I hear twins management, announcers, players and others tell us that it's a marathon not a sprint when they play poorly in some otherwise winnable games.  Last time I checked, all teams games in April and May count in the standings.  Or did they forget to tell the Twins?

5 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

I agree with you that all games have equal value.  BUT......   I think there is a reason why some people put more importance on games that are later in the season.  If the Twins were to lose 10 straight games in April, they would still have about 130 to 145 games to overcome this problem.  However, a 10-game losing streak in August or September would be very difficult to overcome.  So while every game counts equally, games later in the season  might appear to be more important.

4 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

If they win 10 games in a row in April it makes losing 10 in a row in August, palatable. Losing games later in the season make fans more anxious…..they all count the same. More room for continued optimism after losing games early……that’s the difference. The appearance to people, means the fans, & can’t worry about managing the club for the fans. IMO

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

While this is a true statement it is very misleading. The trade deadline is August 2nd. The Twins have 53 after the deadline.

So lets say a week or so before the deadline they are 46 and 56, they probably aren't looking to acquire players and might be dumping/trading them or lets say they are 56 - 46 and now are acquiring players. In one scenario the last 60 games matters and the other not so much, Even if after all is said and done they end up with the same record the first 102 games meant something completely different in the grand scheme of the Twins plans.

If it makes anyone feel better about a possible slow start, the Twins were the only team in the AL Central over .500 on April 30th and May 31st last year. Cleveland didn't get to .500 until June 8th last year. They won 8 out of 10 and briefly took over first at that time. So, yes, the games all count the same, but any talk of bad April and Mays ending a season is overstated. And don't forget the well documented Braves team in 2021 roaring back after a brutal April through July. They didn't reach .500 until August 5th. A good start is definitely better than a bad start. But bad starts can be overcome. Bad finishes can't be. Just ask the 2021 Mets or 2022 Twins.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

3 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Good Q. I still would've liked them to add one more piece but I've come around on the group they have after, A) seeing neutral projections and rankings that almost uniformly have them in the top 10, and B) seeing guys like Alcala and Moran throw as well as they have this spring. 

Basically, what it comes down to is Pagan. If he is bad and they committed $4M to him that could've gone to another reliever, they blew it. If he's as good as they think he can be, they'll look smart. That decision is what it is at this point. 

Great response to a difficult question.

[DocBauer]

I don't like Pagan still on the team. BUT, I can see him performing decently in a middle role where he often throws 2 innings. He does have a rubber arm, and that can be a plus. But I love previous comments about him pitching well late in 2022 when he was in low pressure situations. Wouldn't that be true of about anyone? And maybe someone younger, cheaper, and with a future? Or how about just not one of the worst relievers in MLB the past 4yrs?

Rant over.

I'm not sold on Hoffman, but I am intrigued. Far too SSS to draw any conclusions, but he's got some decent raw stuff to make for a solid middle guy. Maybe more? I'd settle for a quality middle reliever for a couple innings at a time.

I really like the remaining 8, especially seeing Alacala have such a good spring. There is depth at St Paul, but I'll like that depth more a month or so from now when a few sore arms are on the mound and performing.

[Minny505]

7 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Good, reasonable analysis, Nick. There are a lot of "ifs" in all bullpens, including the Twins' bullpen. But I think that is just the nature of baseball's most "volatile" position. Volatile is defined as, "liable to change rapidly and unpredictably, especially for the worse". Your point of management and the FO needing to be ready to make quick changes is insightful, in view of this definition. 

The most accurate way to project every bullpen in baseball is to assume they will all be average, with a few BIPs for the one's anchored by a reliable stud.

That's some paraphrasing of the great Tom Tango (IIRC).

The Twins are one of 8-10 teams that have that reliable stud anchoring it, making the top 10 projection understandable.

[Nine of twelve]

12 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

I agree with you that all games have equal value.  BUT......   I think there is a reason why some people put more importance on games that are later in the season.  If the Twins were to lose 10 straight games in April, they would still have about 130 to 145 games to overcome this problem.  However, a 10-game losing streak in August or September would be very difficult to overcome.  So while every game counts equally, games later in the season  might appear to be more important.

When this issue comes up it makes me think of the 2017 Dodgers. They finished with a record of 104-58, but they had a stretch of losing 16 of 17 games overlapping August and September. It has to be one of the most incongruous stretches of play in baseball history. I wonder how things would have gone for them if they opened that season 1-16.

[jimbo92107]

12 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Except for Pagan, I like the pen. I'll probably like it better once they start filtering in the former starters like Winder and Henriquez.

That's not to say I trust the pen, that'll never likely happen with me, but that's also why I don't like the idea of big ticket free agent relievers, I'd never trust them any more than the crapshoot free agent relievers, it's just an overall volatile position. Few guys are ever good for years on end. It's a rollercoaster for most, especially when changing teams.

But speaking of crapshoot free agent relievers, Jeff Hoffman is exactly the type that gets me interested. The guys who are one year removed from being a starter often break out. And if Brooks Baseball is accurate and his March velocity is 96+ MPH compared to his first year as a reliever when he was hitting 94 MPH, the Twins might have gotten a back-end reliever on the cheap.

One note on Pagan: I watched a video about Randy Johnson a few days ago. Johnson was notoriously wild in the first half of his career, until he got a golden tip from Nolan Ryan, who told him, don't land on the heal of your landing foot; instead, land on the ball of your landing foot. Suddenly, Randy Johnson was a control pitcher with power. 

Could it really be just that simple with a guy like Pagan? I wonder...

[terrydactyls]

7 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If it makes anyone feel better about a possible slow start, the Twins were the only team in the AL Central over .500 on April 30th and May 31st last year. Cleveland didn't get to .500 until June 8th last year. They won 8 out of 10 and briefly took over first at that time. So, yes, the games all count the same, but any talk of bad April and Mays ending a season is overstated. And don't forget the well documented Braves team in 2021 roaring back after a brutal April through July. They didn't reach .500 until August 5th. A good start is definitely better than a bad start. But bad starts can be overcome. Bad finishes can't be. Just ask the 2021 Mets or 2022 Twins.

Exactly!  Thank you for clarifying what I said.

[h2oface]

Theilbar at the beginning of the year. Good Luck. I really don't see the smoke covering him this year. Last year he was horrible to start the year. What do they say about predictive stats. He fooled a lot of folks the last half of the season. We will see.

[Devlin Clark]

Great stuff, Nick!

[TwinsDr2021]

16 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If it makes anyone feel better about a possible slow start, the Twins were the only team in the AL Central over .500 on April 30th and May 31st last year. Cleveland didn't get to .500 until June 8th last year. They won 8 out of 10 and briefly took over first at that time. So, yes, the games all count the same, but any talk of bad April and Mays ending a season is overstated. And don't forget the well documented Braves team in 2021 roaring back after a brutal April through July. They didn't reach .500 until August 5th. A good start is definitely better than a bad start. But bad starts can be overcome. Bad finishes can't be. Just ask the 2021 Mets or 2022 Twins.

I guess that depends on what you mean bad starts, Cleveland was 10-12 on May 1st(21-24 on June 1st), and the Braves were 13-14 (25-26 on June 1st). Sure not the best starts or probably what they were hoping for but, it wasn't like they went into may 5 - 17 or 8 - 19. IMO those are bad starts, if the Twins are within a few games .500 starting May it may not be the start we are hoping for but certainly a start that keeps them alive,

[puckstopper1]

On 3/22/2023 at 10:02 AM, JD-TWINS said:

Understand the skepticism with Pen but this seems a bit over the top………it’s like listing the line-up and stating why each guy COULD  hit under .220……In a group of 9-11 guys there will be some disappointments, but I think we can start with just Pagán & López as the suspect choices in our Pen.

These two have been targets for replacement in my comments at TD for 3-4 months. The bullpens 2nd half resurgence was, in my opinion, due to getting rid of under-performers (Smith - Duffey - etc.) as well as, the Pen’s ability to rack up smooth, stress-free, innings from late August through September after the crunch of being in first place.

Pagan & López have good stuff, but in my opinion, they don’t have the mental toughness nor the intestinal fortitude to pitch in big spots. I know López had a nice 3 months plus last year in Baltimore……lost 2 games to Twins before the trade. His 6 year history is brutal. Within throwing their exceptional stuff they both groove fastballs routinely.

Frankly, am struggling that Hoffman is in the mix for a roster spot as well.

Somebody has to pitch well - or Ok at least. I’m assuming that’s a healthy Alcala - Jax - Moran - Thielbar - Durán - maybe Winder/Sands - López/Pagán??? Am hoping for an adjustment in management thinking  and we see SWR & Balazovic in relief sooner than later if there’s a need.

Fair enough, JD.  Totally agree that Pagán & López as the biggest suspect choices in our Pen.  I do have concerns about how Alcala bounces back from his elbow injury.

Hopefully the starters can (and are allowed to) go longer than last season which was one of the biggest issues with the bullpen - especially in the first half of the season.

[Tyler from Oregon]

Pagan gets one implosion that causes a loss before I picket in front of Target Field for his release from the team.