tony&rodney’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint

[tony&rodney]

It's way too early to guess on the offseason, but I don't mind being a little crazy.

A couple of notes concerning numbers: 1. I'm trading Paddack to save the $3M. and 2. Maeda has a contract based on incentives ($3M +).

I signed three free agents (in this too early iteration). Carlos Rodon gets 4/$100M, Aaron Judge gets 8/$320M, and Austin Hedges gets $4M. Of course, it is about .001 % that Minnesota even considers Judge but ......

I did make a couple of  trades that may be impossible based on whatever another team believes about the Twins players. From Miami,  Pablo Lopez, Edward Cabrera, and Jake Eder for Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers, Tyler Mahle, Emilio Pagan, Josh Winder, and Trevor Megill.  From the Blue Jays we acquire Gabriel Moreno for Luis Arraez, Bailey Ober, Gilberto Celestino, Sonny Gray and Chris Paddack.

I'm $1M over budget after trading away Paddack. I'm sure my next look will be far different and not include Judge. After the World Series is a good time to begin these speculations, but here is one for now.

 

• C: Gabriel Moreno ($0.70M)
• 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M)
• 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M)
• 3B: Gio Urshela ($8.70M)
• SS: Royce Lewis ($0.70M)
• LF: Nick Gordon ($0.70M)
• CF: Byron Buxton ($15.15M)
• RF: Aaron Judge ($40.00M)
• DH: Matt Wallner ($0.70M)
• 4th OF: Max Kepler ($8.5M)
• Utility: Jose Miranda ($0.70M)
• Utility: Austin Martin ($0.70M)
• Backup C: Austin Hedges ($4.00M)
• SP1: Carlos Rodon ($25.00M)
• SP2: Pablo Lopez ($5.6M)
• SP3: Joe Ryan ($0.90M)
• SP4: Edward Cabrera ($0.75M)
• SP5: Louie Varland ($0.70M)
• RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.75M)
• RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M)
• RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.60M)
• RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M)
• RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.50M)
• RP: Jovani Moran ($0.70M)
• RP: Kenta Maeda ($3.35M)
• RP: Ronnie Henriquez ($0.70M)

Payroll is 3.57% under budget

[twinsfan02]

Are you on drugs?? This is so unrealistic it's comical

[Doctor Gast]

I love your boldness T&R,  the only fault I see is, I think Lewis might have a tough time playing SS to start the season.

[Old fox]

Thanks for sharing your dreams. I would be a little hesitant on acquiring the starting pitchers because they’re past medical history. What happens if Correa doesn’t op out?.Which would be great. I would consider signing Leclerc, Burk, or Martin FA relief pitchers from the Rangers. Contreras a FA catcher from Cubs.  Twins do need more of a right handed power hitter to come off the bench. A old pitching saying is; “a low quality starting pitching staff requires a strong bullpen. A good quality starting pitching staff can survive with a weaker bullpen.” I really enjoyed reading your article and sharing new ideas.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I love your boldness T&R,  the only fault I see is, I think Lewis might have a tough time playing SS to start the season.

Lewis won't start the year. Maybe Lee, maybe Palacios. This is just a first playful thought. Realistically, the Twins won't even contact Aaron Judge. I'm would love to see Correa return and drop Judge from the roster. Kepler returns to RF, I'm trying to think of ways to add athletes and defenders. The Twins have backed themselves into a tough offseason.

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, twinsfan02 said:

Are you on drugs?? This is so unrealistic it's comical

Yes. You live in your reality, I live in mine. I'm not trading mine for yours. What's wrong with comedy, especially after the tragedy of the Twins 2022 season?

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

The trade with the Marlins seems pretty lopsided in the Twins' favor—I don't know a ton about Eder or Cabrera, but they both are or have been notable pitching prospects, no? Larnach and Mahle have potential to be quite good and valuable but also have significant health questions, and I doubt either Megill or Pagan has much trade value.

Conversely, in the trade with the Jays, I know Moreno is a fantastic catching prospect, but as the return for trading 2/5 of an opening day rotation plus a guy with a reasonable claim on being the Twins' most valuable position player? Seems steep!

Fun exercise to think about big moves, though.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

6 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I love your boldness T&R,  the only fault I see is, I think Lewis might have a tough time playing SS to start the season.

That’s it? I think Lewis playing SS 8 months after ACL surgery seems like the most likely of the transactions listed.

I liked all of the concepts, but don’t see them happening

[Squirrel]

7 hours ago, twinsfan02 said:

Are you on drugs?? This is so unrealistic it's comical

Okay … show us your blueprint then?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

T&R, I liked your thoughts and suggestions. The dollars seem pretty realistic.

really creative moves that did a good job filling the holes.

no way they happen, but I hope they do

[tony&rodney]

49 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

no way they happen, but I hope they do

You're not wrong, can't disagree with you. I'm just hoping for some athletic changes. 

My thinking is if the Twins run back the same team, attendance plummets. That could send ownership into a shell and the Twins to the basement for a while. The team needs something. 

[jorgenswest]

I would love to have Lopez and Moreno. You might need to recalibrate the trades so you are not sending so many players the other team needs to put on the 40 man roster. That won’t be feasible. Acquiring those two players is feasible but it will take prospects not on the 40. 

[Reptevia]

The old betting adage is:  “Always bet the trend”. That said, the Twins are not going out and signing or trading for a true #1 or #2. They will probably roll with Kepler which I think is a mistake. We need a real backup to Buxton. We need a proven LF. We need a MLB catcher. We need a SS who can field. I’m not sure it’s realistic for Lewis to spend significant time at short ever again. Hard to say what they will do, but trading away half the team seems very unlikely. 

[goulik]

16 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Yes. You live in your reality, I live in mine. I'm not trading mine for yours. What's wrong with comedy, especially after the tragedy of the Twins 2022 season?

Hey, Go Big or Go Home so go for it!! I like it. Thank you for sharing this one!!

[CRF]

As Jean-Luc Picard would say..."Make it so!"  Bartender...make mine a double!

 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Reptevia said:

trading away half the team seems very unlikely. 

I totally agree. Actually we have several years of evidence of what Falvey will do and what he will say. Bundy and Archer had pretty fair seasons, but it was a little bit of a downer to know that this was an expectation for our acquisition of pitchers. Pagan did his best Colome and the Twins never wavered in their support for him. 

WE can mimic Falvey when we put together our make believe rosters or have a little fun. I'll put together some other possible (still unlikely) rosters just for kicks and giggles, using budgets of under $100 million and one stretching out to $150 million. I get my two hours of baseball in various forms. I do like seeing what other people throw out for rosters and appreciate the criticism of my scribbles.

[ashbury]

I would love to acquire Moreno to catch, but he seems about as untouchable a prospect as there is.

[gil4]

Godwin's law - make Hitler comparison = thread over/you lose

Gil4's law - Suggest signing Aaron Judge... 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, gil4 said:

Gil4's law - Suggest signing Aaron Judge... 

A suggestion to pursue Aaron Judge is a metaphor for hope/change. If you follow baseball and are aware of the importance of Aaron Judge to the New York Yankees and also their financial might, you also understand the minuscule percentage of a chance for a team like the Minnesota Twins in signing Aaron Judge. 

Nevertheless, it is a reality that anything can happen and those predictions of the 2023 Twins rosters that are identical to the current roster are just dread, even if they are correct. Hope and optimism needs some positive thinking and a return of a boring product with mediocre players and/or injury prone players across the board are just not worth the read.

I don't expect that Falvey will even go so far as to contact Judge's age with a query, but I am hopeful that some reflection and levity arrives to create some positive change for the future of the Minnesota Twins and I'm fine if that means a roster that is under $100 million. 

[gil4]

13 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

A suggestion to pursue Aaron Judge is a metaphor for hope/change. If you follow baseball and are aware of the importance of Aaron Judge to the New York Yankees and also their financial might, you also understand the minuscule percentage of a chance for a team like the Minnesota Twins in signing Aaron Judge.  

Adding more to your defense, Correa might have been last year's Judge, with some differences. (Correa wasn't coming off a historical season and his previous team wasn't the Yankees and had already moved on.). 

So yes, anything can happen. 

[jorgenswest]

18 hours ago, ashbury said:

I would love to acquire Moreno to catch, but he seems about as untouchable a prospect as there is.

Maybe… but tony&rodney did nail the Blue Jays as the best source to find a catcher. Kirk is 23. Jansen is 27. Moreno is 22. All would be a significant upgrade. All have significant trade value. If not Moreno then maybe Ober for Jansen or Duran and Urbina for Kirk. Catching is going to be expensive.

The alternative may be to value what we saw from Sanchez with his ability to throw out runners and improved framing and offer him a deal to return to the Twins.

[tony&rodney]

12 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

the Blue Jays as the best source to find a catcher

You are correct - the Blue Jays may be an opportunity to upgrade our catching. I chose Moreno because he is the most athletic. I agree with a comment that suggested the Twins would need to include some player(s) not from the 40 person roster. I do think this it is necessary to overpay if one believes it advantageous to add a guy. Trades are always difficult to predict. For example, it is reasonable to argue both for and against the trade of Chase Petty for Sonny Gray. The key would be any interest from Toronto. I could see either Arraez or Miranda as a center piece plus either Celestino or Gordon and some additions like Ober or Winder, Noah Miller and a much lesser prospect. All I really know is that the Twins need a catcher. Sanchez was much improved (almost average) behind the plate from his past traumas in New York, but he is getting slow at the plate and his cost doesn't match the production in total. The Twins just need some changes.

[lecroy24fan]

On 10/13/2022 at 8:34 AM, tony&rodney said:

You are correct - the Blue Jays may be an opportunity to upgrade our catching. I chose Moreno because he is the most athletic. I agree with a comment that suggested the Twins would need to include some player(s) not from the 40 person roster. I do think this it is necessary to overpay if one believes it advantageous to add a guy. Trades are always difficult to predict. For example, it is reasonable to argue both for and against the trade of Chase Petty for Sonny Gray. The key would be any interest from Toronto. I could see either Arraez or Miranda as a center piece plus either Celestino or Gordon and some additions like Ober or Winder, Noah Miller and a much lesser prospect. All I really know is that the Twins need a catcher. Sanchez was much improved (almost average) behind the plate from his past traumas in New York, but he is getting slow at the plate and his cost doesn't match the production in total. The Twins just need some changes.

I don't see any way they trade Moreno, but definitely think the Blue Jays are who to get a deal done with. i went with Jansen in my blueprint.