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What the Twins gave up in terms of prospects at the deadline


Fangraphs ranks prospects traded at the deadline

According to fangraphs.com, the Twins gave up the 8th, 25th, 26th, 37th, 57th, and 66th best prospects of those traded at the deadline. 

It really seems like the Twins did well in limiting what kind of assets they gave up vis-à-vis what other teams gave up. 

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I hated losing Povich, Hajjar, and CES because I think we lost 2 good arms who will be solid ML SP and high quality BP arms at worst. And the system is now, again, short on LH arms. The recent drafting of Priellip covers their losses to a degree because he may be as good or better, drafted just a year later. I keep wondering if CES doesn't turn out to be a "special" bat at 1B/DH. But even still, he's not proven yet, of course. And while Lee is a different type of player, his addition also adds a sort of "replacement" for him as well.

A couple teenage foreign signings who MIGHT turn out 4-5yrs from now just don't factor in.

What they got back is absolutely worth what they sent out. Especially if Fulmer is re-signed. He and Lopez are new to the pen, and should continue to be good. Even if Lopez regresses some, he'd still be very good. Fulmer, also  new to the pen, could not only maintain but maybe even improve. He's an easy re-sign potentially. 

Just a ton of smart and aggressive moves.

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The Yankees look like World Series favorites and they went for it. Their current elite rotation isn't under control much longer.
Cole - 6yrs
Montas - 1yr
German - 2yrs
Severino - 1yr
Tallion - 0yrs
Cortes - 3yrs

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3 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I hated losing Povich, Hajjar, and CES because I think we lost 2 good arms who will be solid ML SP and high quality BP arms at worst.

I hated losing Povich even more after I saw what he did in first start in the O's system.  

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I don’t think teams can be successful without developing and trading good prospects.

It is a credit to the Twins staff to identify and develop a 90th pick in Steer to the point where they are the headliner of a deal for a controlled playoff quality starter. Only 1 player who signed from the 90th spot has more than 10 career WAR. In second place on the WAR list at 9 is Sean Rodriguez. Cal Raleigh who will probably pass Rodriguez is the only other over 1 at 1.5. Similarly Povich was selected at pick 97. Again only one player with over 10 career WAR in Jack Morris.  Edwin Diaz will likely pass 10. Between the two spots and over 100 players selected only two or possibly 4 players will surpass 10 career WAR. 

Well done Twins. They turned the 90th and 97th draft slots into headliners for significant deadline additions.

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The 2022 Twins draft class MAY surprise and replace a couple of these prospects sooner rather than much later.

Prospects bomb. See Balazovic, Henriquez, maybe Sands and Enlow. Who knows what will happen to Canterino, Woods-Richardson and Varland. Three of the above we couldn't give away. Three of the above we were able to keep and could help the team in 2023 and beyond.

All will be replaced by mroe names come the 2023 off-season.

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1 hour ago, Rosterman said:

Prospects bomb. See Balazovic, Henriquez, maybe Sands and Enlow.

Balazovic - appears to be the case (or is it a one year fluke while pitching with a bum knee)

Henriquez - waiver wire pickup, probably worth the try but appears we didn't hit the jackpot

Sands - maybe but I like to give guys another year (like Jax this year)

Enlow - major injury and he is starting to pitch better now

It wouldn't be good we just kept replacing our top AA and AAA pitchers with new guys every year. Remember the graduates this year though - Duran, Ober and Jax (and Ryan if you count trades). We'll take 3 or 4 like that every year.

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Very interesting and thanks for posting this.

Was shocked that E-S was ranked that low.  Will he become the hitter we thought/hoped for while watching him every day this spring?  Or will his strikeouts and lack of defense limit his potential?  Still shocked at how lowly he was ranked. 

The player I will miss is the big Cornhusker lefty.  Since he was drafted and watching Seth's interview last winter he has impressed me.  But as for what we gave up and got in return, seems like the FO did very well and this one source tends to agree.

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19 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Remember the graduates this year though - Duran, Ober and Jax (and Ryan if you count trades). We'll take 3 or 4 like that every year.

3 to 4 a year is crazy talk, nobody can do that and nobody should want that. One starter and a bullpen piece should be what everybody is shooting for. The problem with the Twins is they have had 1 starter (Ryan) in how many years,? Then after a few years of that when a pitcher is due for free agency you are back filling with prospects same with the pen and you basically have a cheap/good pitching staff and you can spend your money on more reliable offensive type players.

The pipleline of Dobnak (20), Ober (21), Ryan/Winder(22), with one of SWR/Balazovic/Enlow in 23 and so on would be awesome, not really much need to sign or trade for pitchers, but that pipeline feel apart with injuries every where along the pipleline causing the Twins to sign the likes of Happ/Shoemaker/Bundy/Archer. in 21 Jax failed as a starter, which isn't a problem most are and moved to the pen in 22 and has been decent.

In 20 Alcala was brought up as the 1 relief pitcher needed, he hasn't worked out, no real prospect in 21, 22 has given us Duran, and Jax,, 23 needs Moran and somebody prepping for 24 and Alcala to be like Duran.

 

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On 8/9/2022 at 9:20 PM, jorgenswest said:

I don’t think teams can be successful without developing and trading good prospects.

It is a credit to the Twins staff to identify and develop a 90th pick in Steer to the point where they are the headliner of a deal for a controlled playoff quality starter. Only 1 player who signed from the 90th spot has more than 10 career WAR. In second place on the WAR list at 9 is Sean Rodriguez. Cal Raleigh who will probably pass Rodriguez is the only other over 1 at 1.5. Similarly Povich was selected at pick 97. Again only one player with over 10 career WAR in Jack Morris.  Edwin Diaz will likely pass 10. Between the two spots and over 100 players selected only two or possibly 4 players will surpass 10 career WAR. 

Well done Twins. They turned the 90th and 97th draft slots into headliners for significant deadline additions.

I would suggest anyone offering an opinion on related topics should go to Fangraphs at look at any playoff team this century that is in the bottom 2/3 of revenue to see how winning rosters are built.  It's very easy as they list players in order of WAR produced.  85% of the highest contributing Players ( I use 1.5+ WAR) are internally developed prospects or players traded as prospects which I define as having never produced more than 1 WAR in a season.  

Producing enough good prospects to make trades is obviously advantageous.  However, the impact is very modest when compared to developing major league players or trading for them before they are proven.  This is not a conceptual statement.  The facts (history) show this clearly.  So, those people who constantly trivialize the importance of prospects ( not you / generalizing) are proving an opinion that is unencumbered by the facts.  isn't that a nice way of saying it? 

Three teams in the lower half of revenue (Oakland / Cleveland / Tampa)  have been by far the most successful if measured by playoff appearances.  Look at any of their teams and you will find their success was influence far more by trading established players for prospects than trading prospects for established players.  Without going back through by spreadsheets, I think it's about 10:1.  I have posted the actual results here twice and this conceptual description about 5 times.  It's something people who want to believe in trading prospects elect to ignore.  Again, I am not using your broad statement here to suggest this is what you are saying.  Just making a generalized statement.

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8 hours ago, roger said:

Very interesting and thanks for posting this.

Was shocked that E-S was ranked that low.  Will he become the hitter we thought/hoped for while watching him every day this spring?  Or will his strikeouts and lack of defense limit his potential?  Still shocked at how lowly he was ranked. 

The player I will miss is the big Cornhusker lefty.  Since he was drafted and watching Seth's interview last winter he has impressed me.  But as for what we gave up and got in return, seems like the FO did very well and this one source tends to agree.

Fangraphs may do a little re-jockeying top prospects mid-year, but most of what they have seems dependent on 2021 scouting reports. I expect a lot of movement (as there is every year) after the season's end. If Encarnacion-Strand continues to wallop pitchers through the end of the season with the Lookouts, his rank will probably rise. Fangraphs was pessimistic on him to begin with and a lot of their rankings have a huge personal bias.

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I still think it’s a bit questionable that the FO chose this year to be so (relatively speaking) aggressive, Yes, they were in first place, but clearly demonstrating no signs of being a serious contender, trending in the wrong direction at time of trades, and seriously hamstrung by injuries.

IMO, the best thing that can be said of these trades is that they should, at least theoretically, also make the 2023 club better. And for that reason, I endorse them.

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