Emilio Pagán Doesn't Need to Be the Next Alex Colomé

[tony&rodney]

Pagan looks tantalizing with his fastball and other pitches, but we are seeing why San Diego may have cut him in Spring Training if the Twins had not become the Padres benefactors. I hope he does better, he throws some good pitches but then ... wham. I'm still hoping too.

[h2oface]

You might have to quit writing these resurrection supportive articles about players and managers. They all seem to elicite the wrong trend immediately. 

[Murph]

He already is! He's a bust. Twins need to cut their losses. 

[rwilfong86]

2 hours ago, darwin22 said:

Add the White Sox to your list.

At least he's consistent.  He's now proven he can blow a lead (2 runs today) in non high leverage situations.

IMO he's moved behind EVERYONE in the bullpen.  

I had a feeling the White Sox would win once they tied it off Megill. Disappointing to hold 5 leads and then lose. 

[D.C Twins]

Or.... (insert nuanced analysis here).... he'll continue to get lit up like a Christmas Tree.

Overall, I personally categorize this post in the 'wishful thinking' category. 

The Rogers trade is on it's way to the Ramos for Capps category of Twins history

Nick, I will say that your tweet on how badly his cutter has been hit was the most insightful fact that I've read on the Twins this season.!

[Nick Nelson]

20 hours ago, Shaitan said:

Now can we stop using the term "closer" for this team?

He gets the majority of save opportunities, but he is not the closer (a specialized role that only appears to close tight games). He is used in innings 6-8 far too often for this term to apply.

Pagan leads the team in saves and games finished, both by a wide margin. He's been the nearest thing to a "closer" they've had this season, and he only started pitching in earlier innings after getting his role bumped down semi-recently. 

[Nick Nelson]

19 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

"But the reality is, even for a below-average reliever, once you remove the ugliest parts of a season, the rest tends to look okay."

We're 2 years removed from the last time this guy was a reliable relief arm. Cherry picking spurts of acceptable performance and by your own admission, hoping for another "lucky," stretch doesn't address any of the actual issues going on with Pagan. 

The article does specifically address how & why he can improve though. Anyway, bottom line is that when you strike a bunch of guys out, you have more margin for error than a lot of other pitchers.

[Karbo]

21 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I really disagree with this. The Twins rotation isn’t top tier because it is both fragile and brittle. Sure, if they have have a big lead, give them a third or even fourth turn through the order, but if the game is close, the only two I trust to be facing the top of the order are Gray and (most of the time) Ryan. The rotation has substantial injury histories plus small margins for error. This necessitates a lot of use for the bullpen. 
 

In reality, no one in the ‘pen has been overworked. In avoiding using their top relievers too much, a lot of innings have been given to guys who aren’t great options. I’ve said since May that the Twins need to add probably two high-leverage arms. What I’ve seen since May only makes me more sure that this is the course they should take. 

I think you're missing my point. I'm certainly not saying our rotation is "top shelf" , [though with the exception of Bundy I have more confidence in them than most of our relievers,] What I'm saying is that if a starter has his "stuff" working and is pitching well, let him try to get through the lineup the 3rd time. A reliever can be warmed up and ready if needed.

Also, as far as our top relievers go, in all reality, that would be only Duran. Jax stats would make him a decent setup man. So as we can both agree that we need at least 2 more good arms in the pen, until then, IMO let the starters go IF they are pitching well regardless of how many times through the lineup they are. 

[MGM4706]

Pagan must have pictures on Rocco! He can't find the plate for beans. I don't care what stuff you have if you can't throw it for strikes you are useless  Send him to St Paul. If he finds his control bring back. If not at least he hasn't lost you more games  Bring up some kids if you are not going to make a trade or two. They can't do any worse than this Pen. Plus add an inning to the starters!!

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

The article does specifically address how & why he can improve though. Anyway, bottom line is that when you strike a bunch of guys out, you have more margin for error than a lot of other pitchers.

1. He's throwing hard, and subsequently allowing a HardHit% in line with his awful SD years. His velo isn't so high that he can overpower hitters a la Duran. His fastball has a 140 wRC+ and .348 wOBA; pretty pedestrian. 

2. Yep, the splitter is a plus pitch, but it's his only one. As a relief arm you can certainly survive with that, but you have to be able to locate....

3. What he did three years ago in TB is irrelevant, especially since he's been a disaster each year since leaving. This isn't even a case for improvement; it's some weird footnote. 

I'd argue that margin for error disappears when you're allowing baserunners at the rate Pagan is, and the ball continues to find its way over the fence. None of the three points address Pagan's inability to command the strike zone; it starts and stops there. 

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

1. He's throwing hard, and subsequently allowing a HardHit% in line with his awful SD years. His velo isn't so high that he can overpower hitters a la Duran. His fastball has a 140 wRC+ and .348 wOBA; pretty pedestrian. 

2. Yep, the splitter is a plus pitch, but it's his only one. As a relief arm you can certainly survive with that, but you have to be able to locate....

3. What he did three years ago in TB is irrelevant, especially since he's been a disaster each year since leaving. This isn't even a case for improvement; it's some weird footnote. 

I'd argue that margin for error disappears when you're allowing baserunners at the rate Pagan is, and the ball continues to find its way over the fence. None of the three points address Pagan's inability to command the strike zone; it starts and stops there. 

Not to mention the splitter is really only a weapon when he's ahead in the count. And when it gives some appearance of a strike out of his hand. 

[Nick Nelson]

4 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I'd argue that margin for error disappears when you're allowing baserunners at the rate Pagan is, and the ball continues to find its way over the fence. None of the three points address Pagan's inability to command the strike zone; it starts and stops there. 

He currently has a career-high 5.0 BB/9 rate. His career mark is 2.5, he was a 2.6 last year, and he's never finished higher than 3.7. 

I don't think I need to explain why I find it reasonable to believe this will improve by year's end? Sometimes control/command comes and goes. He had a stretch prior to the Cleveland series where he walked 2 batters in 16 appearances. 

[Riverbrian]

I'm not a fan of rewarding playing time to a player who is struggling big time and doing so for a significant time frame but yet SHOULD be performing better.  The highways are littered with these guys.   

It is perhaps the biggest mistake that any organization can make. It will damage your team in the present and bottleneck your team for the future.

That roster spot could be used to find someone both better today and better tomorrow.

No organization should ever reach the point where it believes that it can't find anyone who can perform better than Pagan has.         

 

 

[mikelink45]

The way for Pagan to succeed is to use him in the noncrucial innings.  To rely on him is a form of Russian Roulette.  I appreciate your optimism Nick, but this is a hard sell. 

[Craig in MN]

Does Pagan have minor league options remaining?  It seems like a remote possibility.  I don't see many options used....he probably has too much service time by now, but option rules are notoriously obscure.   I'm not sure letting him pitch in St Paul would help get him right, but pitching at Target field isn't doing it either.

 

[ashbury]

14 minutes ago, Craig in MN said:

Does Pagan have minor league options remaining?  It seems like a remote possibility.  I don't see many options used....he probably has too much service time by now,

Correct.  He passed that threshold during the current season, in fact.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

The way for Pagan to succeed is to use him in the noncrucial innings.  To rely on him is a form of Russian Roulette.  I appreciate your optimism Nick, but this is a hard sell. 

First of all, there aren't any noncrucial innings. Or few enough to not matter. 

But assuming there WERE such innings, I don't see how that changes the way he pitches.

[Linus]

He walks a lot of people and gives up a lot of homers. That is a bad combo…..

[Danchat]

On 7/7/2022 at 11:21 AM, MGM4706 said:

Pagan must have pictures on Rocco! He can't find the plate for beans. I don't care what stuff you have if you can't throw it for strikes you are useless  Send him to St Paul. If he finds his control bring back. If not at least he hasn't lost you more games  Bring up some kids if you are not going to make a trade or two. They can't do any worse than this Pen. Plus add an inning to the starters!!

Rocco doesn't have the power to DFA Pagan and call someone up, that's on Falvey/Levine to make the move. The most he can do is reduce Pagan's usage and change the situation he comes in, like he's done with Duffey for a stretch a week or two ago. The front office is responsible for keeping Pagan around, just as they did with Colome last year.

[KirbyDome89]

18 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

He currently has a career-high 5.0 BB/9 rate. His career mark is 2.5, he was a 2.6 last year, and he's never finished higher than 3.7. 

I don't think I need to explain why I find it reasonable to believe this will improve by year's end? Sometimes control/command comes and goes. He had a stretch prior to the Cleveland series where he walked 2 batters in 16 appearances. 

He was terrible last year with a BB/9 half of what it is this year, but regression on that front is the solution? So just hope hitters stop pissing on his cutter, hope the fastball starts to play up, hope he start throwing the splitter for strikes consistently instead of burying it in the dirt? 

It's likely the Twins need to win the division to punch a postseason ticket. There's literally no reason they should continue to let Pagan actively damage their chance of doing so on the off chance his command suddenly returns and he goes from DFA candidate/negative asset to simply a bad relief option they can maybe hide. It's not even remotely worth it. 

[mikelink45]

6 hours ago, USAFChief said:

First of all, there aren't any noncrucial innings. Or few enough to not matter. 

But assuming there WERE such innings, I don't see how that changes the way he pitches.

It doesn't.  He is the pitcher we use when we want to save the arm of the position player who might be asked to cover an inning.