Craig in MN

Does Pagan have minor league options remaining? It seems like a remote possibility. I don't see many options used....he probably has too much service time by now, but option rules are notoriously obscure. I'm not sure letting him pitch in St Paul would help get him right, but pitching at Target field isn't doing it either.

I want to see him up to, but I think the Twins are basically done with him at catcher. He will get called up in September, and they will give him every chance to show them some reason for hope. But he'll be 26 by opening day year next year. If a guy isn't a passable catcher by 26, I don't like his odds of becoming one. Even if he does become passable in a year or two years, he will do so in a backup role, and then he'll probably start to break down soon, and his defense is likely to start to suffer again. His bat looks like it will be good enough to play somewhere every day soon. It just doesn't seem like "Pinto at Catcher for the Twins" is a fit. If Pinto doesn't show some defensive improvement fast, I wonder if the Twins should try to see if he could make the move to the outfield. There most obvious hole for the Twins next year is a corner OF. It might be a stretch for him out there too, but the Twins have played plenty of poor outfielders in the past few years.

Andrew McCutchen

Favorite Pizza: Glen Perkins Favorite Twin: Sausage Mushroom

Is that right? I don't know where to get his minor league splits. That's kind of amazing, if true. He has a .665 OPS as a lefty this year, and .459 as a righty. If his righty stats could even match his lefty ones, there would be no concern about him being an everyday player.

One thing to remember about Florimon is that, even though, he is a switch hitter, he is truly terribly against lefties, and actually relatively decent against righties. Escobar is a switch hitter with the reverse platoon strength. A platoon of the two of them could conceivable get you nearly average SS offense and well above average defense. Bartlett was a strong hitter against lefties, so he could be in the mix too, if things go well for him. That doesn't give Florimon any more pure value, but it does help the team if the player has a notable weakness that you they can plan to cover up. Gardy doesn't like to platoon, of course, but it's an option. I think part of the reason he doesn't like to platoon is that it is usually with more offensive-oriented players and it makes it easier for the opposing team to play reliever matchups towards the middle of the batting order. Plus, those other offensive players are rarely as bad in their platoon-weakness hitting as these guys are. Who's going to bring in a loogy/roogy to turn Escobar or Florimon around? Nobody. What about having one come in to face someone like Parmalee or Plouffe?...a lot might. Parmalee and Plouffe have roughly a 650 OPS on their weakside platoon...that is bad but not so bad. That is basically the strongside platoon splits for Escobar and Florimon...they have closer to a .500 OPS from their weakside....that is what you need to get away from. Platooning these two switch hitters that are batting ninth regardless seems like there is little downside and more relative upside.

Well, a combination of Kubel, and the other guys on the roster, and the lack of much on the market make it nearly impossible. There's only a couple of Free Agent hitters that are likely to be any better than what the Twins already have at DH. Morales, but he requires a draft pick, and he's good but not great, and he's got no defensive value. His lack of defensive value is actually negative value, since if forces existing poor defenders to stay in the field. Kubel could at least play in the OF if one of the other OFs need a day off. Nelson Cruz is similarly unlikely, but with the steroids issue and more insane demands. Choo would be really a great fit, but he turned down a 7 year $20 million/yr deal, and I don't see the Twins getting near that. After that, Drew is the only remaining free agent position player I'd have much interested in, and of course that doesn't affect DH. Any other move would have to be a trade, and I don't see many fits there either.

I like this deal, but it really makes me wonder what the next deal is. TR has been saying that he has more work to do, and unloading Doumit doesn't sound like the end of that work...just a step along the way. Evan swapping Doumit for Kubel doesn't seem like an obvious improvement....just a step towards something else. The most obvious next move would be signing or trading for a catcher, but having Doumit shouldn't have stopped them from making a small-time catcher move, and a big catcher move would be a surprise at this point. The same goes for pitching...even if they wanted another starter, there's no reason they couldn't do that before trading Doumit. Trading Doumit might have signaled a DH acquisition, but they just did that with Kubel, so that seems almost impossible. The next biggest upgrade location seems like shortstop. It's quite a stretch, but perhaps bringing in a recent first-round talent in Gilmartin might be enough in Ryan's mind to make up for giving up a second round pick to sign Drew. I don't see any other free agent move out there that fits as an upgrade for this team, but doesn't block anyone obvious. I just don't see what the next step is here....maybe a trade.

This is absolutely Terry Ryan's thought process on the matter, and it confuses me that people who really pay attention to the Twins don't get this. Terry Ryan was always willing to sign big contracts, just not a ton, and not all escalating at the same time, because he values having flexibility for next year. He's always been willing to sign some free agents that fills a void, just not such that it backs him into corner in the future payroll obligations. He made offers to Santana and Hunter, but he couldn't comfortably commit that much and still have the flexibility he wants. But he's never been in a situation over the past couple years where he's never had ANY young, in-house players to re-sign, or plan to re-sign. He's never had such financial flexibility in the coming years as he has today, because there's been nobody in-house to extend. There has never even been remotely close to this small amount of future obligations. So he has money to spend. A lot of us might think of that as an opportunity, but Ryan considers that a failure...a failure of Plan A. Plan B is to do the next best thing and sign some notable free agents, but to try to get back to Plan A as fast as he can...by developing more young, good players to extend, instead of going to free agency next time. He's right.

I like Gardner, and he'd be an upgrade and a nice leadoff hitter, but he's a just one year upgrade. He's a free agent in 2015. Trading anything of value for one year for Brett Gardner, just to help them bet closer to average in 2014, is missing the point. If they want to sign a free agent for CF for a year, I'm fine with that, because it's just money and they can always slide a CF to the corner...but I'm not fine with giving up anything to trade for one.

I heard this also, and I thought it was strange that Sinker is the only that I've ever heard say it, especially, since I think Bernadino talked with someone with the Twins this week and got the impression that Doumit was going to be a catching. I think Sinker knows that Doumit didn't catch at the end of the year and is just assuming that will continue. Doumit himself said that he plans to catch in 2014.

This comment about pitching well against the Central got me looking at hist stats, and I was pleasantly surprised. Hughes is widely known to have a 4.54 ERA overall, 4.90 ERA at Yankee Stadia, and 4.10 on the road. By my quick (hopefully accurate) figuring, Hughes has a 3.84 ERA against his new AL Central competition (Chi Cle Det & KC). That's a very small sample size, but it's promising (and some of those came in Yankee Stadia so even that could be exaggerated). More promising to me is that 44% of his innings have been against AL East teams, and he has a 5.10 ERA against them. Eliminate those, and he has a 4.10 ERA against everyone else. If you give him a little benefit for getting out of Yankee Stadia, a little more benefit for pitching in Target Field, a little more benefit for getting many fewer starts against AL East teams, a little more benefit for getting many more starts against AL Central teams, then things start to get interesting. Not all of those effecs may be legitimate, but it's easy to piece together an argument for him sneaking in a sub 4 ERA performance. It certainly is a move that has a lot of nice signs.

You should ask who the bald guy is at the table because Terry Ryan wouldn't make a signing like this. The Star Trib has a live stream of the news conference up: http://www.startribune.com/video/175907151.html

Franklin Gutierrez. He's been injured, he's been a great defender, he's still shows some flashes of skill with the bat, but he hasn't put it all together for 3 or 4 years. He could start in CF or a corner and upgrade the OF defense, or could just be a part time player. He's a lefty masher, so he could platoon with Presley, or be a bench guy if that's all the better he can perform. He might not be any better than Mastroiani, but there's a fair chance he is good and there's a fair chance that Mastroianni isn't that good. And he could serve as competition for the RFers. He seems like a decent gamble.

People are seriously underrating Arencibia based on his low AVG and poor year last year. He's not Drew Butera. Butera has a sub .500 OPS and has never done anything with his bat in the majors or minors. Arencibia has a very good minor league track record, and 2 good offensive years in the majors, followed by one bad year (with a very poor/unlucky BABIP). It makes no sense to complain about a 59 OPS+ while ignore his previous two years and ignoring that Hermann and Fryer (who are basically the same age) weren't doing well enough in the minors to earn notable MLB playing time at all. Arencibia's never going to be even a decent AVG guy, and he's never going to be an all star, but he averages 20 HRs a year and can be a decent catcher, and he's got MLB experience. Fryer or Hermann or Pinto have no experience, and I'm not opposed to giving them experience, but make them earn it and maybe share time with someone who does. I don't think makes sense to invest much in bringing in a catcher, but Arrencibia seems like about the right combination of cost and potential. The more I think about it, I think he's basically Trevor Plouffe, only at catcher. Arencibia is a little better defensively, and little lower average, but a good power potential, and good enough to give a chance too, until he gets expensive or a hot prospect forces him to the side.

Well, he a much lower BABIP last year than the rest of his career...if that bounces back to normal, then he's a bounce-back candidate. He's not a high AVG or OBP guy, but he also averages 20 HRs and has a good pitch framing reputation. He's good enough that you could start him, hoping for a bounce back, but not good enough that you have to start him, in case Pinto makes the case for starting. A decent defensive catcher with 20 HR power, who is under team control for 3 more years is worth a gamble on, I think.

I think this is a good point, with one exception...the acquiring team has to have a couple of roster spots to take a flyer on these guys. I could see Seattle taking a pitcher and a hitter to add to their mix, but I don't know their roster situation. You could add Worley, or Correia, or Hendricks, or Collabello, etc to list of players on the way out As for what I'd like to see the Twins do from here on out, I'd like them to pick up Arrenciba or Pierzynski at catcher. After that I'd like to talk to Franklin Gutierrez moreso than someone like Rajai Davis. Gutierrez has been outstanding in the outfield, and had flashes of having an ok bat, but has been injured and slow for 2 years. If he can bounce back, he could be anywhere from a bench player, to a starter in CF, to a starter in the corner. Mostly he provides some competition in the OF for Arcia, Presley, Mastroianni, Hicks, Parmalee, Collabello, Buxton, etc. Depending on the DH/catcher situation it also provides some competition for Pinto as well. I don't think the Twins should sign a starter for the OF/DH, but I don't think they should stand pat either. This gives them a guy with upside for a year, and fits as well as anyone. Short of that, I'd keep dangling most of the borderline starters and Parmalee, Colabello and Doumit and see if there is any remotely interesting offer.

81-81 doesn't mean 0 WAR. It is Wins against REPLACEMENT, not AVERAGE. A replacement level team is full of minor league free agents and waiver wire guys and wins 50-some games.

Mostly I think that Steamer has no idea how to value catcher defense, but I also question experts who think that Salty is a better than average defensive catcher. If you look into the catcher defensive stats on Steamer, you get things all over the map. Look at the "DEF" column on Fangraphs and you see that steamer projects Salty to provide more defensive value than he ever has. It projects a LOT of catchers of having extreme increases in DEF next year for no apparent reason. Either they are projecting them to catch a ton or play somewhere other than catcher or something, but it's not clear to me and it doesn't makes sense. It looks to me about 1/2 of the catcher projections make sense and the other 1/2 are way high, including Salty, McCann, AJ, and a ton of other old catchers who just aren't getting more adept defensively. I just don't recommend signing a catcher based on Steamer projections. I think they are nuts. I expect players to play more in lines with their career averages and their averages over the past few years. I think Doumit will hit more like .760 OPS, which is perfectly fine for a DH, probably above average. A lot of teams would be wise to take a flyer on Corey Hart. But only one team can, and none of them can play him at catcher, even occasionally, so the rest of the teams have to look for some offense where they can get it.

I didn't say that Doumit isn't good enough to play catcher for the Twins. I just think he's a better fit at DH, where they also have an opening. He might fit differently on a different team. I do think that Steamer projection is foolish.

I'm not talking about Doumit playing catcher for this team. I am talking about there being a team that might settle for Doumit and the Twins trading him to them. And if anyone expects Salty to be a 3 WAR player, they are fooling themselves....I'd bet it will be less than 2. He has had exactly one 2+ WAR year in his career, and that was last year and fueled by an extreme BABIP. For their careers, both Doumit and Salty average about 1 WAR per year. Salty is more at his peak, and Doumit more on the downside, and Salty is obviously an overall better player for next year. But Salty is trying to sign for 3+ years for a ton of money. In three years, I bet he's a worse player than Doumit is now, and even less deserving of playing time. I don't want to sign up for that.

There is a sort of a spectrum of offensive catchers from Saltalamachia (below avg catcher, ok career hitter) to Pierzynski (poor catcher, better career hitter), to Doumit (bad catcher, even better career hitter). If a team is willing to sacrifice catcher defense for some offense, Doumit has the best offensive number and he could be in the discussion. I don't want Doumit to be a primary catcher for the Twins, but it's not outrageous to think a team would try to make it work, even as a platoon with a good glove guy. The real point is that Salty doesn't make that much sense for a team that has Doumit, and that moving Doumit would make it make more sense.

If this was anyone other than Terry Ryan, I would think he was trying to keep the rumors out there to keep Saltalamachia's asking price high in hopes of team wanting to trade for Doumit instead. I could imagine a team loosing out on Salty and asking about Doumit....especially a team with a tight budget. They're not that far apart in quality, and Doumit's a third the price and a third of the years.

I've been wondering about the trade prospects for Ryan Pressly. He had a good year as a reliever, seems likely to have a future as a good reliever, was highly regarded in the past, could still be turned into a starter in a team wants to, has options remaining and a team could take a year to let him try to start at AAA. He wouldn't bring back a monster return based on where he is today. To me he's a low ceiling/high floor type of guy, but I just have a feeling that there is a team out there that would really like his potential...it's a matter of finding that team. Being young & cheap makes him an option for every team. He'd be nice to keep, but he still profiles as being maybe the 5th best reliever in the bullpen, so if they are going to trade a reliever, it's not the end of the world. I'll throw this one out: Ryan Pressly for Danny Espinoza. Middle infield is the most obvious place for the Twins to try to upgrade and Espinoza is a gamble, but has the potential to add some pop.

Interesting. That certainly makes me question my theory. When you pull out some 30-game samples, there's going to be more variability than if you look at the big picture. For all I know, one or two games against better or weaker teams, or in bad weather, or against September call-ups, or who knows what, could be screwing up a a yearly split. Maybe that means the 2010 was crazier in his favor than it should have been. But for all I know, 2011 or 2009, or whenever were crazier against him than it should have been for similar reasons. I guess I would still will trust the bigger sample, the career-level home-road split sample, but hedge that a little bit.