Craig in MN

I'd rather have Liriano than Myers or Pavano or a bunch of other guys. I don't think there's any risk of Liriano being one of the next 5 starters to sign, or even one of the next 10, so talking to his agent isn't a big deal, as one of a bunch of backup options.

I'd be fine with trading Perkins, but I doubt the Twins would be very high on that idea. I have been thinking about using Burton to sweeten the pot for a trade. He's only got one year of control left for the Twins, so he's not necessarily going to be around for a winning cycle. With his injury history, I'm not wild about giving him an extension just yet, so trading him makes a lot of sense. Keeping him only makes sense if the Twins are going to contend next year. Maybe the Reds would be interested in taking him back and think of him as a plausible closer....

He's worth a minor league deal with ST invite, but nothing more. I see no problems if the Twins are interested in that.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Terry Ryan was interested in Buerhle, for the right deal. Reports are that he had talked to the Marlins about multiple players. There are really only 4 likely players there....Reyes, Johnson, Nolasco, & Beurhle. I'd bet he asked about them all. I'd probably trade Morneau for Buerhle.

You are probably right, but I don't see where Regular Season Wins leads us anywhere in the argument. I wonder if can figure it out with simple probability and some thought exercises. Hopefully my math here is right: Let's say the playoffs are a crapshoot and every team (excluding one wildcard) has a 1 in 8 chance of winning. If an average/crapshoot team makes the playoffs (with a a .125 probabilty of winning) five times, they've got a 50/50 chance of winning at least one World Series. What about if it's not a crapshoot? Say you can create a playoff team with 1 in 5 chances of winning the series: .200 probability. They team would have to have about 59% chance of winning each playoff series to get to 1 in 5 odds overall that year. That's a really good team. If that elite team make the playoffs 3 out of 5 years, they have basically the exact same odds....50/50 chance of winning at least one World Series in the same stretch. So, this team can rebuild for 2 years and go all in for 3 years, or just try to maintain being good for 5 years and their odds are almost identical. But how hard is it to create a team that will be 1 in 5 favorites to winning the World Series (after making the playoffs)? How hard is it to just make the playoffs 5 years in a row? Both are very tough. I'd say its tougher to build a team to be the clear WS favorite 3 years in a row than to make the playoffs 5 years in a row. Now that I think about this, these don't really have to be discrete 5 year periods. It could 5 years of crapshoot playoffs in 8 years of the steadier franchise versus 3 years of playoff favorite in 8 years for the boom-or-bust franchise. The odds stay the same. I'd still say it would be easier to just get to the playoffs 5 out of 8 years than to build a clear favorite 3 out of 8 years, but it's hard to say for sure. But that is basically where the odds lead us.

The problem with this is that you are using raw wins.....which completely neglects Gleeman's point. His point is that Win totals don't do a good job of telling what teams are better. A 85 win team in the AL Central is not equivalent to an 85 win team in the AL East or the NL West. An 85 win team that has a ton of injuries at the end of the year is different from an 85 win team that added a lot of talent in trades at the deadline, which is different than an average 85 win team. If wins don't do a good job of rating how good a team really is, why would anyone be surprised that the wins don't do a good job of predicting which team will win in a head-to-head matchup? In some respects, you might be giving Gleeman's argument more strength. That said, I'm surprised that the relationship isn't higher, but without knowing what other factors might be higher than .07, it's impossible to know if that's really a lot or not. If the playoffs are a crapshoot, then every correlation should be zero. If most other correlations you can think of are much smaller than .07, then .07 is a lot. If there are a lot of other factors that you can find higher, then this is surprising. By itself, this doesn't say much to me.

I'd be quite happy if Dozier, Florimon, Escobar or whoever just took control of a spot and this wasn't an issue. None of them have done anything near enough to earn a starting spot, and they all probably need to play at AAA to develop. Plouffe has done enough to earn a starting spot, but his grip on third base is not very secure either. This is only one very limited data point, but it sums up my concerns as completely as anything could: Career OPS: Izturis: .718 Plouffe: .718 Carroll: .698 Dozier: .603 Florimon: .573 Escobar: .539 None of those last 3 have even close to a .700 OPS in AAA. I'm sick of guys who can't play at AAA getting there chance to fail with the Twins. I'd certainly like a guy better than Izturis to play every day, but I just don't see it happening.

I don't think there was a better middle infielder match for the Twins than Maicer Izturis. He's very similar to Carroll in quality, flexibility and contract. Considering that the Twins have no idea what they have in Dozier, Florimon, Escobar or Plouffe, having 2 utility guys that they could plug into starting roles without concern for a couple years is a huge bit of insurance. There might be better one or two better Free Agents out there, but they're not that much better, and they'll cost more and not guarantee much better results for the Twins. They could possibly trade for a similar quality player, but why give up something in trade when Izturis's contract isn't prohibitive? I'm not disappointed about not going this direction, since he's only Maicer Izturis, but I'd say the odds are greater than 50% that the Twins end up bringing in an infielder worse than Maicer Izturis.

Looking at his splits in Colorado, he was great away from Coors Field ( .240 .330 .347) and killed lefties in general (.231 .315 .331) . That's an odd split, but TR said he wanted another lefty, maybe this will fill that hole, with a chance at being better than that if Coors was a big part of his struggles. The peripherals aren't promising otherwise, but there's reason to think he might be a decent addition.

I can't say that I wanted to keep Casilla, but I expected the Twins to at least wait until the deadline to decide whether to go to arbitration. At best he provide cheap insurance in case they can't find another infielder this off season. At worst he wasn't going to get much of a raise, and they could cut him before opening day for 20% of that contract if one of the other options makes him expendable And if another team wanted Casilla for his arbitration salary, the Twins aren't likely to get anything better than him for anything cheaper.

It's a pretty good move for KC, I think. I like Santana more than most, and I don't know how KC would bring in a better pitcher than the would in this trade. I think there's going to be massive salary inflation this year, so even for 13 million, he's a decent value. In a normal year, free agent Santana might get closer to 8 million, but not this year. The big media contracts are going to kick in next year and enough GMs are going to be willing to use that now to get the better players that it will push up contracts. And there's enough money around with the other teams that they will be spending on the lesser free agents too. It's going to be a tough year for the Twins to bring in enough pitching to. Their only hope, I think, is being able to trade Morneau or and outfielder for a pitchers, and if the market is as expensive as it could be, that's a decent possibility.

When Inge was released, Valencia still had at least a loose grip on third base, was hitting much better than Inge, and the Twins had bigger issues to deal with. And they probably thought that if they had to dump Valencia, they'd want to give Plouffe a chance to play 3rd consistantly to see what he could do. That would mean that Inge wouldn't have anywhere to play. And, hey, the Twins did just that and it worked out pretty well. After 2/3 of year of seeing that, now they might have a different opinion of what Plouffe can do and can't do, and might have rethought what they how Inge could fit. I think I'd rather have Polanco than Inge, but there is some logic to why they'd talk to Inge.

Wow. I started the snark, but I expected a little bit of positivity from someone. He wouldn't be the first sinkerballer who fell off a cliff due to not finishing off his pitches well, due to a little junk in his elbow. That's connecting the dots a little bit, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he is back to being above replacement level in 2013.

I guess that's it....Nick Blackburn's surgery is going to ruin his pitching career. Sarcasm aside, anything Blackburn can change before next years is good thing. At least if there was a medical issue resolved, there is a glimmer of hope that he will bounce back to have some value.

The content is great in general. On the layout: The combination of horizontal orientation and (relatively) small fonts that blur into the background images made it a little hard to read on my laptop. It wasn't terribly, just a little annoying. If it was vertical, I could have just set it up to zoom to page width and scrolled down a little more smoothly. It sounds like you plan to fix at least one of the 3 issues in the future, and that should do it.

I don't think that's true at all. There are plenty of holes and there's no reason to refuse to consider filling them via trade. I don't suspect Castro is the right target there, but the Twins could certainly use an upgrade at shortstop and it will be hard to find that in free agency. They can't be satisfied to start the season with a middle infield picked from Caroll, Florimon, Escobar, & Dozier, especially with 3rd base less than settled. There are a lot more decent gambles in the free agent pitcher market than in the middle infielder market. In this market, I think I'd get better value trading, for example, Revere for a comparable young decent shortstop and sign a starter with some upside than vice versa. I really don't see a shortstop that I could sign and feel remotely good about.

Will the big new TV contracts in 2014 change payroll approach for the Twins in 2013. How will they affect the Twins and MLB long term? e.g. Will that allow them to keep payroll somewhat higher in 2013 than it would have been otherwise. Does it change their payroll = 50% of income rule? Will they try to sign guys to extensions before that money causes inflation in contracts in a couple years?

That is a key point, but it could be a key point for each side. The obvious point is that the Twins don't usually spend much money. The less obvious point is that last year, Terry Ryan was willing to go out of his previous comfort zone to fill a hole that needed filling. He's not going to go nuts, but he knows he needs pitching and he now has a record of going a little further than before (and with great results). I'd be a little surprised if Ryan signed a pitcher to a 3 year, $21-30 million deal, but I wouldn't be shocked. That said, I expect Ryan will be hoping to sign guys to one year deals with an option/buyout for the next year, or maybe a 2 year deal for the right guy. It's not like the Twins lack of pitching depth is going to magically solve itself in 2014, and odds are the Twins aren't going to be able stockpile enough arms to be favorites in 2013 anyway. If you find a guy you like, try to get him to stick around a few years. There are a few high-potential guys out there with some question marks that you could probably get on a one year deal with an option. Baker is the obvious one. Brandon McCarthy is a good starter if he's healthy, but isn't going to get a big guarantee. Ervin Santana had enough struggles that the Angels aren't even thinking about picking up his $12 million option. He's still a very good pitcher, and might want a one year deal to re-establish himself (in spacious Target Field). Jorge De La Rosa, Marcum, and a few other guys fit the bill too. They aren't going to build a rock solid rotation that way, but they'll give themselves a chance. I'd absolutely expect Ryan to have enough money to spend that he's not going to just give out three $3-5 million deals to uninspiring starters and see what happens.

The Buerhle love should be pretty obvious. He's got a 12 year track record of not falling off a cliff...better than any pitcher the Twins has had in the past 12 years or more. He's been a very consistent, very good pitcher, pitching in a hitters park, who averages 32+ starts a season. My only concern with him is is salary, and no team is going to pick up that full salary in this pitching market. If the marlins want to move him, they'll have to eat a big chunk of that salary, and there's a chance that it gets to a point where the Twins are interested. Terry Ryan hates signing free agent pitchers and needs a workhorse in his rotation and the organization has always had good things to say about Buerhle. Any pitcher can fall off a cliff, free agent or not, old or young, cheap or expensive. There are higher upside guys, there are younger guys, and there are cheaper guys, but I'll gladly take a good 34 year old pitcher who's never had a hint of injury or decline. And as a bonus, I suspect, no one except Greinke would sell more seats at Target Field. He's not the answer to all the Twins problems, but he could be part of the answer.

The Marlins are expected to make some major changes. I expect them to trade at least one of their big contracts (Johnson, Nolasco, Buerhle, Bell & Reyes). Johnson & Nolasco would be great, but are only signed for 1 more year, so I don't see the point for the Twins. Bell doesn't seem to be a fit at all, and Reyes trading would be a huge PR hit. Buerhle's got 3 more years left, and the Twins like him a lot. If the Marlins ate some of that salary, I could easily see them having some interest. TR & Gardy are going to want a veteran leader in the rotation, and Buerhle would fit the bill and would be a popular addition for a lot of fans. The Marlins could have an opening in the OF or 1B, so there might be a match there.

The Dodgers have a lot of starting pitching....I expect they will try to trade someone. TR is going to look for a pitcher on the trade market. Kershaw, Beckett, Capuano, Harang, Lilly, and Billingsley are all under contract for next year at least. Lilly has 1 year, $12 million left. Capuano is signed for 1 year $6 million with a mutual option for 2014. Harang is signed for 1 year $7 million with a mutual option. I could see the Twins trading for any of these guys. If there is a glut of similar pitchers on the market, and the Dodgers are possibly looking to reduce payroll, they might find a plausible match for less than market price.

There was a note on MLB Trade Rumors that the Blue Jays want to part ways with Yunel Escobar. Two weeks ago, I would have loved the idea of trading for him...not so much anymore, but he'd at least answer part of the infield problem for a few years. You can never have enough Escobar's around the infield. I don't see any obvious ways the Twins would match up with the Jays in a trade, though.

There are always players that come at a cheaper price tag than a veteran....that is only one factor. I'm not a Capps fan, and don't particularly ever want to see him pitch for the Twins again, but what it boils down to for me is that he's just a better pitcher Burnett or Swarzak. The Twins could fill out the bullpen with those other guys, but they'd have a better and deeper bullpen if they had Capps pitching in the 7th inning instead of Burnett. There's no way they should pick up his option, but there's no way any team is going offer Capps even $3 million next year. I'd offer him a $2 million deal with maybe an option/buyout for 2014 and tell him he can earn whatever bullpen job he can get in spring training. No other team will offer him any better than that, and the Twins will be better for having him around, and they should be able to afford the money.

Tyler Robertson is a fine LOOGY, but I doubt the team's going to have the depth to be sure they can use a roster spot on another pure LOOGY. If the rotation is going to have a few question marks, they might need an innings eater more than that. I wouldn't reserve a slot for Alex Burnett by any means.

If the Twins hope to be at all competitive, this is the 100% correct answer.