Craig in MN

Perhaps the stat doesn't need to be fixed...perhaps it is telling you something important. Maybe there is something about the Marlins home park that didn't suit his pitching. Maybe something about the Marlins defensive players or defensive positioning. Or the catcher didn't call the game that he needed. Or the pitching coach didn't suit him. Or it was the heat, or the wind, or the depressing fanbase, or who knows what. I think it is something about the Marlins stadium. For his career, opposing hitters have a .743 OPS against Nolasco. At the old Marlins park (Sunlife or whatever), opponents had a .783 OPS against him. That's about a third of his career games, where he probably looked like a 5th starter. In games NOT in Sunlife, it is more like .723 OPS against. He moved out of that park this year and his stats got much more normal. I'd sign him and hopefully expect him to pitch more like .723 OPS against pitcher...which is more like a #2, and more like his peripherals. That's why I like him.

Well, acccording to fangraphs, Nolasco has a better FIP, xFIP, WAR, K/BB ratio, fastball speed, HR rate, and he's younger. His ERA and ERA+ are worse, and those are definitely notable. They are both decent pitchers in general. I guess we will see if the baseball world thinks he's better, and pays him more. The problem with Arroyo is that you are likely going to be paying for the year where he falls off a cliff, and you are definitely getting a short contract. When you sign a short contract with a high likelihood of one of those years being a bad deal, then it's hard to make the whole deal a good signing.

That is NOT a victory. That is taking the team with BY FAR the worst rotation in baseball, and replace one starter (Pelfrey) with a 5.19 ERA, with another starter (Hughes) with a 5.19 ERA. That isn't a victory...that is exactly the same as this year. Hughes might better than Pelfrey next year, but that's far from guaranteed. Hoping for players to be better next year is wonderful, but every team is doing that....our chances of it being true are no better than anyone else's. There are five spots in a rotation, and usually there are injuries where you'll need the equivalent of 6 or more. This is a team that CAN bring in 2 legitimate pitchers. They don't have to all be long term deals. If they do that and fill out the rotation with Correia, Gibson and Deduno, they've got a chance of improvement. If everyone is healthy, and Meyer (or someone else) is so good at AAA that he deserves to be called up....then you can trade someone or demote someone or put someone in the bullpen. Odds are that someone will struggle or someone will get hurt and it will sort itself out...not everything will break right. But if everything does go right and this team somehow has 6 starting pitchers who all SO GOOD that they belong in the rotation.....THAT is Victory.

I like the Billingsley trade idea. Bringing in a pitcher with a history of excellence is a good idea if you can afford it. It's a short commitment and they've got more money than they can spend, so why not? If he is close to the pitcher he was, then they can keep him for 2015 as well. I've been in favor of trading for Wandy Rodriguez, but I like the Billingsley option better. The Dodgers don't have many holes, but the do have some spots open in their bullpen. I wonder if they would be interested in Duensing, Swarzak, etc, as part of the return for Billingsley. It's not going to "wow" them, but it fills some holes for them and makes some sense. I can't say that the Twins have a surplus in the bullpen but there's a lot of guys that deserve a shot that might not be getting them without making some room. I don't see the point of trading Arcia, unless you are getting a shortstop in return and I don't expect to get that from Texas.

Jeff Neimann is expected to be non-tendered by the Rays. He made $3 million in arbitration and was injured all year, and made only 8 starts the year before. He's in a situation much like Colby Lewis...except he's 3 years younger and has a lot less injury history. He might not be ready by opening day, but the Twins could use that as final opportunity for Worley, etc. He seems like a good guy to take a chance on.

Thanks Seth. This looks like this is the GOOO list (guys out of options): Anthony Swarzak Vance Worley Samuel Deduno Scott Diamond Virgil Vasquez Eduardo Escobar Alex Presley Trevor Plouffe Chris Parmelee

In that discussion, they were wondering if Worley has options left. I'd guess that he does have one left, but I think that's a factor in thinking about the offseason. Does anyone have a list of which players are out of options (of the posssible demotions)? As I recall, Hendriks and Parmalee will be out of options. Plouffe, Mastroianni and Swarzak were out of option previously, I think. Possibly Escobar, Fein, Worley or Deduno could be added to that list. It would be nice to have a full list. I think Hendriks has a good chance of being put in the bullpen to start the season if he doesn't make the rotation. That is just as true of Worley too, if he is out of options. Worley's persona seems like he'd be an interesting reliever. There's not that much room out there, but it could force the team to keep Pressly, Theilbar, Tonkin and/or Welker at AAA when they otherwise would be promoted.

The Twins have long had a propensity to go after control pitchers who don't walk batters....finding a lot of value in that. It makes sense that on offense, going after hitters that can/will work a walk would have the same value, but the Twins haven't put nearly as much effort on that side. Is there anything to that? The Twins (and every team really) plays lefty/righty matchups constantly with relievers from a pitching perspective....presumably knowing that the platoon advantage is a big deal in those at-bats. Doesn't it make as much sense to make an effort to platoon hitters to take advantage of that on the offensive side? Or is the idea of a platoon really just overrated because of roster limitations? Maybe swapping one less lefty reliever would allow for one more lefty hitter to allow for a platoon?

It's reasonable to doubt what they will do. I think an important thing to consider when comparing this year's offseason to every other one in Twins management' history, is their long term financial flexibility. They have never spent wildly on the free agent market, but they have always had contracts and upcoming contract concerns that go a few years in the future. They've got $49 committed for 2014, and $27 million committed for 2015 and less for 2016. There will be some arbitration raises, but not really all that much, unless a couple of poor starting pitchers suddenly become awesome. It is practically impossible for the Twins to get close to bumping up against their financial limits without adding $50+ million/yr in contracts for those next 3 years. I'm not sure they've ever had half that much available for that long before. They can spend a big chunk without handcuffing themselves. My plan would involve bringing in a few starting pitchers, and one good offensive player.....with a couple of those being medium length contracts. That would give them 2 players to build with for the future but keeping some financial flexibility for a signing next year or a trade later if they somehow are competitive sooner: Sign Mike Morse - OF/1b/DH. He can rotate around to keep everyone in the lineup. He's a good clubhouse guy, which seems like they've be eager to add. Since Willingham & Doumit would be FAs after 2014, they could even sign him for multiple years without creating any obvious issues. Best guess: 3 yrs, $16 million Trade for Wandy Rodriguez - SP. He's really good and only guaranteed one year, but could earn a qualifying offer or extension or be traded if he stays healthy. I'd guess Pittsburgh would want some cheap pitching depth or offense, so I'd offer someone like Worley, Diamond, Albers, or Hendriks for him and some cash. Best guess: 1 yr, $12 million, trade for Worley. Sign Ricky Nolasco - SP 4 yrs, 52 million. I think he's got a good chance of having a sub-4 ERA for the Twins. There are a bunch of other FA starters that would fit this role too. Basically, this is slot for "sign the best starter you can reasonable get to a mid-term deal" , and he's the name I came up with and a generous enough offer that he'd almost certainly sign. Sign Jeff Neiman - SP -1 yr 2million. He's been injured a ton, but he's was great when he's pitched, and would have another year of arbitration available in 2015. Likely Roster: Mauer, Pinto, Doumit, Morse, Dozier, Florimon, Plouffe, Arcia, Pressley, Willingham, Mastroianni, Parmalee, Escobar. That seems like an offense with some potential and some depth and some platoon options....Parmalee stays because he is out of options and can pinch hit for Plouffe. (Collabello, Herman, or Romero would be the next guys up, especially if Arcia or Pinto end up at AAA...and Sano of course would the next player for force his way on the team). Rodriguez, Nolasco, Correia, Deduno, Gibson (Neiman/Hendriks/Diamond/Albers/Myers) Perkins, Burton, Fein, Duensing, Theilbar, Swarzak, Hendriks (Pressly, Tonkin, Ibarra, Achter, Hernande,). Payroll stays about the same as this year, but the rotation is notably better, and Arcia, Pinto, & Sano have a chance to push the offense to be better too. For 2015, Willingham & Doumit are Free agents, but Buxton, Sano, Arcia and Pinto are likely on the team, and Parmalee, Plouffe, Pressley, etc fill could where needed.

That's a pretty reasonable idea. The less Mauer plays catcher, the more likely he is to be healthy long term. That's exactly what the "move Mauer to first" crowd are saying. It just eliminates the concept of "move him back to catcher in 3 years when the Twins are likely going to be competitive". The guy is 30 and has a history of a pretty serious concussion. The idea that Mauer would have to overcome 100 balls off of his catchers mask and a dozen collisions at the plate in the intervening 2 or 3 years, remain healthy through that, and still have a couple year window of him be healthy enough to catch (productively) full time at ages 33-35 (with another 100 balls off his mask and a dozen more collisions in those years and all that other wear and tear) seems like a stretch. It's certainly possible. But the odds of him contributing to the next competitive Twins team seem much better if you just bite the bullet and get him out of there now. If he was 2 years younger or didn't have a concussion this year, that would be something else. But the team is risking his long term ability to play at all in exchange for his ability to catch part time in the short term when they aren't competitive, in the hopes that he won't have any more concussions and still be a rare truly excellent catcher in his middle 30's.

He's not an 850 ops catcher. He's an 850 ops PART TIME catcher. If I was pretty sure he could start consistantly at catcher, I'd agree with you. But you can't sign two good hitters to play first and DH and force Mauer to catch 120 games. You can hope that happens, but you just can't plan for that to happen. You could sign one hitter and let the status quo rotate through the other two spots. Here's the thing though: the Twins had Morneau hitting .740 ops this year. That is EXACTLY the kind of guy you will be able to sign for a first baseman or DH on the free agent market. You can sign one guy like that, but that is exactly evening out! That is not upgrading either. The only way to upgrade the offense is to sign multiple ok hitting free agents, and hope that Mauer stays healthy and can play catcher almost every day. If he doesn't, then he is at first and you are wasting that free agency investment on the bench (or Mauer is injured and it's a downgrade no matter what else they do). If you have the money to sign 2 FA position players, then you should sign one, do everything you can to make sure your best player can play every day, and put the rest of the money in the pile for free agent starters.

I want to clarify that it's been 3 years since Mauer has caught more than 75 games (not 4 like I wrote earlier). I should also clarify that Mauer is not an average first baseman. Last year, there were 5 full time first basemen who hit better than him, and one DH. If he can stay healthy at first, he is an all star level first baseman. That also goes to show that it's not easy to actually sign a decent first baseman/DH. There are about 3 good first base free agent options, none of which seem to me like real options for the Twins. After that, you can't really expect anything more than a .750 ops, and most of them you'd expect less than that. There's not much there. It's not easy to upgrade at catcher. I disagree that you are trying to upgrade from Mauer, since he's not even a half time catcher. You are upgrading from half Mauer/half current backups to some new mix. He's the weird math in my mind: In 2013, Twin Catchers had an .860 combined OPS. Firstbasemen had a .720 OPS. DHs had a .634 OPS. I think Mauer at first full time has a .880 OPS. So you need about a combined .670 OPS from catcher and DH to even out...which isn't much. There are actually plenty of free agent catchers who hit that. I think Pinto and Doumit and a defensive-minded free agent catcher rotating between those spots can combine to do more than that. If you sign a more well rounded catcher, you get a bigger upgrade.

I understand all the people who want Mauer to be remain at catcher, since his skill as a catcher are a great asset. I understand people who don't think the other Twins catchers are good gambles to play regularly. But it has been 4 full years since Mauer has caught even half of the Twins games. Whether it's concussion, bilateral leg weakness, or something else, he hasn't been even close to a full time catcher for 4 years. How do you plan for a guy to be your main catcher in year 5 when he hasn't done it for 4 years? No team would do that. I don't see it, and that's without acknowledging that his concussion issue is more likely to come back if he's catching. So, at the least, I think the Twins need to have a plan for someone else to catch a ton. If the other guys on the roster aren't good enough to do that, they need to upgrade regardless. It's hard to upgrade catching, especially for a part-time catcher. If you are going to sign a catcher, you are either going to get another flawed guy who is an ok backup, or you are going to get a full-time catcher. You can't really do either if you want Mauer to catch, as there's not playing time to justify it. You can, then, though, upgrade at first base or DH. Except there isn't a free agent first baseman/DH who is as good of a hitter as Mauer is. I can't find one, and it's not really closer, and that's without any increase in performance from him not catching. And you aren't going to trade for a first baseman that is a better hitter than Mauer. So the best possible first baseman for the Twins next year is Mauer....the hit at catcher is up for debate, but the pure performance at first base isn't. If you want Mauer to catch, but you can't count on him catching because he hasn't done it for 4 years, you need to keep a position open for him at DH or first base a lot. Which means you can only upgrade at 1b/DH with lesser or part time player(s), so you're not really bringing in much talent there. Just the same as with catcher...you're frozen out from making any splash bigger than a ripple. The choice comes down to either: Move Mauer to 1b, knowing that's an upgrade, and then try to upgrade at catcher, or keep Mauer as catcher and be stuck bringing in lesser, probably part time player(s). Or just stand pat and punt completely. I don't want to punt. I don't want the sign some fringy guys and hope everything works out well. I want them to actually have a plan and make a move based on something that they can control. That means moving Mauer to first base (or at least away from catcher), and then upgrading as best they can in the other openings.

Liam Hendricks is out of options and has too much potential to just drop if he doesn't get a rotation spot out of ST. He's got to be considered in the bullpen discussion. He might have a better chance of being in the bullpen than anyone else on this list, actually. And no reliever article is complete without a mention of Mark Hamburger.

Trading either of them only makes sense right now if you are trading them for someone more overpaid. You aren't going to get a great young pitcher that is overpaid. If you stretch the requirements, though....I think an NL team still might want them, and might trade an overpaid player in return. Pittsburgh needs offense. They could use corner OFs and backup catchers and first basement. They have defensively strong options there already, and could use bench bats for pinch hitting too. Wandy Rodriguez is expected to pick up his $13 million option there, and Pittsburgh might consider him expendible. He's not under 26, nor has a K rate of 8, of course, but that is an insane return. But if he bounces back this year, his track record is good enough that he could garner a nice prospect like that at the trade deadline. Or else he would be fairly likely get a qualifier offer, and return the Twins a high draft pick which could be a pitcher, who would be under 26 and might have a good K rate.

I think that lineup is a little better than if you flip-flopped Mauer & Collabello/Parmalee. The offense is the same, but I'd bet on the defense being better. The real improvement is if it's easier to acquire an upgrade at first base than it is to acquire an upgrade in RF. I think that is true also (assuming the Twins pursue anyone). As for the wave of OF prospects, I'll believe it when I see it. As for right now they have a possible opening in RF right now, and 2 or 3 CF top prospects who could be ready in the next 2 years, and Arcia who could play corners or DH. There's still room for one more OF for a while. If enough prospects emerge that they have to move him to first base, then we'll all be ecstatic, and we know he can play there.

True, but the same could be said about every centerfielder, shortstop, etc. Some of those guys have to play elsewhere, though. Every player gets put somewhere based on their skills and first base is usually the last place they put them if they can avoid it. Why is it the second choice for Mauer? I'd say it's easiest to adjust to temporarily for a catcher, but if this isn't a temporary change, then that's no reason in this case.

I'm leaning towards Mauer catching rarely if at all in the future. But I have to question why it is assumed that he should play first in that case. After his bat, his next best tool is his arm, which is lost at first base. Why not consider putting him in RF instead? If the decision is made in the offseason, he can spend all Spring Training learning the position. He's athletic enough that he should be able to handle it, at least for a few years. Range might be an issue. It's not like Willingham and Arcia are great enough defensively that they have to be out there. There's no other corner OFs breathing down their necks in the minors. Put Willingham at DH, Arcia in LF, and look for a FA first baseman....unless they want to go with Parmalee/Collabello there. To bring this back to the concussion issue, I'd think there's less of a chance of colliding with players in RF than at 1B.

Since he was traded, Wandy's option is a player option and he's likely to exercise it since he probably couldn't get that much as a FA coming off of his injuries. It's a lot like Santana though....I wanted Santana last year too.

I see that Wandy Rodriguez was shut down. He'd make $13 million next year but Houston is picking up a big chunk of that. It sounds like Pittsburgh might not really need him next year, and could want to free up some money to resign Burnett and upgrade their offense. This is the type of situation the Twins should look for..he shouldn't cost much in trade if the Twins would pay most of his salary. If Wandy is healthy, he's an above average starter for next year, and one that they could give a qualifying offer to after next year. If not, they mostly just give up money, which they should be spending anyway.

Just to see them all listed out, here are the Twins starters they control that aren't on that list: Correia Gibson Deduno Diamond Worley Hendriks Albers Walters Devries That's 9 guys. I could see 2 or 3 of those guys being released, but I expect the Twins to sign another starter too. That leaves 2 or 3 extra guys. I'd put Hernandez in the bullpen, but they still need to clear space. It's too bad none of them would be worth much in a trade to clear some space. I think that Parmalee is out of options, so there's a fair chance that he never has a chance to play in Rochester next year. I'd say a Wilkin Ramirez type would be more likely to get that playing time.

Johns Sickels has his comments up on the trade....calling him an interesting, but not an outstanding prospect.

I've been thinking about the infield next year too, but more in terms of free agency. The Twins left a lot of money on the table this year, and will have another 25 million or so coming off the books this year. They really should be spenders this year. The main problem with that is that it makes no sense to spend on an catcher, or outfielder, or 3b, or 2b, or bullpen arms....there's either too much depth or no sense blocking a top prospect. There's not much in the way of shortstops out there. That leaves starting pitching and 1B/DH. We'd all love a top starting pitcher, but the dds are long that they'd spend so much on pitching that there's be nothing left for 1b/DH. They could stick with Parmalee, Collabello, Doumit, Hermann, Plouffe, etc but they really have 2 slots there and none of them have any guarantee of doing anything with the bat. They really should bring in someone, and there are quite a few 1b/DHs on the market this offseason. My suggestion would be to sign Kendrys Morales to a contract and slot him in at 1B unless his defense goes downhill. It would probably have to be a 3 year deal for Willingham type money or more, but that's just fine with me and there should be the money available. There are a lot of other guys out there, but hes the one that I'd want. With Arcia, Sano, Rosario all getting close, and the Twins without any real Spanish speakers on the coaching staff and not much else on the team, having a veteran Hispanic leader on the team could bridge the gap and provide some leadership for the young guys. By next year, the infield could be Sano, Florimon, Rosario & Morales....might as well get a veteran who can communicate with the guys to show them how it's done. Morales came up to the majors when he was 22 or 23, so he's got some of the same experiences as those young guys. He's only 30, so still young enough to offer something. He's a switch hitter and fits right in the middle of the lineup and the Twins can use that from day one. Let Parmalee, Collabello, Doumit, etc fight for time at DH....and maybe even give them a legitimate bench bat. Plouffe too whenever Sano comes up.

I remember thinking something similar about about trying Deduno as a reliever in the offseason. You obviously wouldn't want to bring him in a jam in a close game, so middle relief is out. But as a mop-up map, you wouldn't really worry about a few clunkers. And as a closer, he'd start innings and would often have a 2 or 3 run lead, so walking a runner hear or there wouldn't kill him as long as batters aren't making good contact off of him. It's kind of crazy to think of him as a closer, but a tiny improvement with the transition is all it would take to make it work. Guys like Capps & Rauch get jobs as closer every year. The Twins don't really need a closer or a mop-up man, though, so the fit isn't obvious.

Scott Diamond has a much higher chance of being in the Twins rotation that Hendriks (right or wrong). Hendriks seems like a guy that the Twins just don't like how he pitches and will need some to luck and patience to prove himself to the Twins management. Diamond has performed like a guy the Twins would give an early contract. Hendriks will be in the rotation for much of the time between now and 2016, but he'll be the one they kick out of the rotation without worrying about it. Hendriks=Slowey, Diamond=Blackburn. Worley Diamond Gibson Meyer Berrios May & Hendriks would be available at AAA, because odds are good that one of those guys is injured or doesn't develop, etc. Actually Hendriks might be out of options by then