Minnesota Twins 2016 Draft Retrospective: Emerging Big-League Talent

[Cody Christie]

Six years ago, the Twins had one of their strongest drafts in recent memory. All five of their top picks from that draft have debuted, so let’s look at how this draft unfolded.  

 

Major League Baseball’s 2022 Draft is scheduled to start on July 17, 2022. Each team prepares for the draft with a specific plan, and sometimes those plans play out better than others. To prepare fans for the upcoming draft, here is a look at some of the most important drafts in recent Twins history. 

The 2015 season was a compelling time in Twins Territory as the club finished in second place in the AL Central after four straight 90-loss seasons. An improved record meant Minnesota drafted in the middle of the 2016 MLB Draft instead of near the top. Because the team had the 15th overall pick, it can make it tougher to project which players will be available and how the team can get as much value as possible for their picks. 

Minnesota selected outfielder Alex Kirilloff out of high school in Pittsburgh, PA. He was known for his advanced hitting approach, which has been his calling card throughout his professional career. Out of players selected in the first round, Kirilloff (0.4 WAR) currently ranks 13th according to Baseball-Reference’s WAR. Eight players selected behind him rank higher in career WAR, including Will Smith (8.1 WAR), Dakota Hudson (4.5 WAR), Gavin Lux (4.3 WAR), and Eric Lauer (3.8 WAR). Many of these names played in college, so they were expected to debut before Kirilloff. Only three high school players taken in the first round have accumulated more WAR than Kirilloff (Lux, Ian Anderson, and Dylan Carlson).

During the second round, the Twins had three different picks, and all three have made their debuts over the last two seasons. Minnesota selected Ben Rortvedt with the 56th overall pick, and he has been worth -0.1 WAR in 39 career games. He was included as part of the Josh Donaldson trade and underwent arthroscopic knee surgery in May. Rortvedt may never hit well enough to be an everyday catcher, but he is a solid backup with strong defensive skills. 

Later in the second round, the Twins had back-to-back picks and took Jose Miranda and Akil Baddoo. Miranda won the team’s minor league player of the year last year after dominating in the minor’s upper levels. His big-league career started slowly, but his bat is showing signs of the hitter he was last season. Over his last 16 games, Miranda has a 1.012 OPS with six doubles and three home runs. The Tigers selected Baddoo in the 2021 Rule 5 Draft, and he posted a 111 OPS+ in 124 games last season. He started the 2022 season by going 7-for-50 (.140 BA), and he is currently in the minors trying to rediscover his swing.

Minnesota’s third-round pick was Griffin Jax from the United State Air Force Academy. During his rookie campaign, the Twins used Jax as a starter, and he posted a 6.37 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP. There were some positive signs in his numbers as he did very well the first time through a line-up, so the team moved him to the bullpen for 2022. His transition to reliever has been outstanding as the team has relied on him to get some crucial outs this season.

Jordan Balazovic ranks as one of Minnesota’s top pitching prospects, and the team took him with their fifth-round pick. Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus had him in their top-100 prospects entering the 2022 season. His season started late as he dealt with a left knee strain, and he has made six starts at Triple-A this season, and he has a 9.00 ERA with a 2.33 WHIP. If he can put together some more consistent outings, there will be an opportunity for him to debut in 2022. 

Tyler Wells is developing into a solid late-round pick by the Twins (453rd overall). Unfortunately, the Orioles selected him in the 2021 Rule 5 Draft, so his value has been earned in a Baltimore jersey. His 1.8 WAR is the highest total of any Twins player taken in the 2016 Draft. Last season, he pitched out of the bullpen and posted a 109 ERA+ with a 0.91 WHIP. The Orioles moved him to the rotation this season, and he has a 3.86 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 12 starts.  

Kirilloff still has a long career ahead of him to accumulate value for the Twins, but there were other strong players in the first round that Minnesota passed over. Overall, the Twins found talent that is emerging at the big-league level, and the total value won’t be known for multiple more years. 

Do you think the Twins made the right decision by taking Kirilloff? Should the team have left Baddoo and Wells unprotected in the Rule 5 Draft? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

OTHER POSTS IN THE SERIES
-2012 MLB Draft Retrospective

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

Kirilloff was a good selection. He will get it together soon and be a productive big league player (maybe in the Max Kepler type range).

[DJL44]

That is a bumper crop of a draft.

[nicksaviking]

Funny timing of this one with Mickey Moniak being optioned today. Oof, that one's got to hurt for the Phillies. 

[Mike Sixel]

Great draft! Wow. 

[ashbury]

2016 was the year of the total system failure. Except, not quite!

[jimbo92107]

Kirilloff's bat will give him at least a decade in the majors, IF his wrist issues don't drive him out of the game. 

Baddoo was unforgivable. The kid was clearly dynamite, and should have been protected. 

Tyler Wells was just another tall, lanky minor league pitcher among several we heard about at TD. Their success goes up and down, and Baltimore grabbed him after a downturn, I assume. Anybody's guess which tall, lanky minor league pitcher will actually make it.

Jax could be a solid middle reliever for years to come. Gotta like that guy. 

[Mark G]

It seems odd that nowhere in the article can I find who was in charge of this draft.  Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't the smartest guys in the room come along in 2017?  I am pretty sure that this was a Ryan FO draft; is he going to get any of the credit for it?   I think he may deserve some.

[Aichiman]

1 hour ago, Mark G said:

It seems odd that nowhere in the article can I find who was in charge of this draft.  Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't the smartest guys in the room come along in 2017?  I am pretty sure that this was a Ryan FO draft; is he going to get any of the credit for it?   I think he may deserve some.

My thoughts exactly!

[Aichiman]

Compare 2016, the last draft from the dark ages, to 2017, the first draft of the enlightened age  Under new management, the Twins amateur draft unfolded as follows:

The number one pick in all of baseball,  Royce Lewis

Round 1, pick 35;  Brent Rooker

Round 2, pick 37; Landon Leach,

Round 3, pick 76; Blayne Enlow

Round 4, pick 106; Charlie Barnes

Round 5, pick 136; Andrew Bechtold

Round 6, pick 196; Riley Widel

And the list goes on.  And it doesn't get any better. (Though, they did get Baily Ober in the 12th round.  Still, not too inspiring.)

[tarheeltwinsfan]

6 hours ago, Aichiman said:

Compare 2016, the last draft from the dark ages, to 2017, the first draft of the enlightened new age  Under new management, the Twins amateur draft unfolded as follows:

The number one pick in all of baseball,  Royce Lewis

Round 1, pick 35;  Brent Rooker

Round 2, pick 37; Landon Leach,

Round 3, pick 76; Blayne Enlow

Round 4, pick 106; Charlie Barnes

Round 5, pick 136; Andrew Bechtold

Round 6, pick 196; Riley Widel

And the list goes on.  And it doesn't get any better. (Though, they did get Baily Ober in the 12th round.  Still, not too inspiring.)

I don't know about you, but every new job I have ever had required time for me to learn the job and to get up to speed. I have been an umpire in Little League games, a grocery bagger, a machine operator in a cardboard factory, a laborer in a plywood factory, a door to door dictionary salesman, a laborer in the water and sewer department (i.e. a ditch digger), a cab driver, a rifleman in an infantry platoon and a lawyer. I submit a steadily rising learning curve applies to all, including old lawyers and riflemen who survived and General Managers of baseball teams.

[goulik]

And then you have 2018 which has 3.0 War already with Larnach, Jeffers, Sands and Winder. If I remember right, 2017 Falvey and Levine didn’t change a whole lot and they really reworked the organization the following off season.

[Aichiman]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I don't know about you, but every new job I have ever had required time for me to learn the job and to get up to speed. I have been an umpire in Little League games, a grocery bagger, a machine operator in a cardboard factory, a laborer in a plywood factory, a door to door dictionary salesman, a laborer in the water and sewer department (i.e. a ditch digger), a cab driver, a rifleman in an infantry platoon and a lawyer. I submit a steadily rising learning curve applies to all, including old lawyers and riflemen who survived and General Managers of baseball teams.

You had me with you until you mentioned the word: "lawyer."  You blew it with that one.  But I'll overlook it and focus on the more honorable part of your resume.  Yes, you are right.  There's a learning curve in everything.  But until the quants produce a world series championship, my trust and heart remain with the blue collar guys who brought the team to Minnesota and delivered two world series victories.  

[jdgoin]

7 hours ago, Mark G said:

It seems odd that nowhere in the article can I find who was in charge of this draft.  Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't the smartest guys in the room come along in 2017?  I am pretty sure that this was a Ryan FO draft; is he going to get any of the credit for it?   I think he may deserve some.

Deron Johnson was the Scouting Director. Tim O'Neil was Assistant Scouting Director. Mike Radcliff was VP, Player Personnel. Deron had final say.

[wabene]

1 hour ago, Aichiman said:

You had me with you until you mentioned the word: "lawyer."  You blew it with that one.  But I'll overlook it and focus on the more honorable part of your resume.  Yes, you are right.  There's a learning curve in everything.  But until the quants produce a world series championship, my trust and heart remain with the blue collar guys who brought the team to Minnesota and delivered two world series victories.  

I just can't picture Andy McPhail with a shovel or hammer in hand. Now a nicely pressed white shirt and cappuccino? Picture perfect. 

[Dman]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I don't know about you, but every new job I have ever had required time for me to learn the job and to get up to speed. I have been an umpire in Little League games, a grocery bagger, a machine operator in a cardboard factory, a laborer in a plywood factory, a door to door dictionary salesman, a laborer in the water and sewer department (i.e. a ditch digger), a cab driver, a rifleman in an infantry platoon and a lawyer. I submit a steadily rising learning curve applies to all, including old lawyers and riflemen who survived and General Managers of baseball teams.

 

[Dman]

1 hour ago, goulik said:

And then you have 2018 which has 3.0 War already with Larnach, Jeffers, Sands and Winder. If I remember right, 2017 Falvey and Levine didn’t change a whole lot and they really reworked the organization the following off season.

....And we are already talking about how the Twins won't be able to protect all the guys from their 2019 draft. I think they are doing OK.  2016 was a great year to be sure but with a little luck 2019 could be as good or better.

Matt Canterino
Spencer Steer
Sawyer Gipson-Long
Louie Varland
Casey Legumina
Matt Wallner
Brent Headrick
Sean Mooney
Alex Isola
Edouard Jullien

[Mike Sixel]

17 hours ago, jimbo92107 said:

Kirilloff's bat will give him at least a decade in the majors, IF his wrist issues don't drive him out of the game. 

Baddoo was unforgivable. The kid was clearly dynamite, and should have been protected. 

Tyler Wells was just another tall, lanky minor league pitcher among several we heard about at TD. Their success goes up and down, and Baltimore grabbed him after a downturn, I assume. Anybody's guess which tall, lanky minor league pitcher will actually make it.

Jax could be a solid middle reliever for years to come. Gotta like that guy. 

Badoo is in the minors, and not coming back soon unless something changes. He was in A ball, and the Twins were coming off a playoff season where they needed to be protecting guys VERY LIKELY to help in the next year or two. I'm baffled at the takes on him, given the context of what the Twins needed, and the likelihood anyone would keep him in the majors all year given his history. 

[Aichiman]

10 hours ago, wabene said:

I just can't picture Andy McPhail with a shovel or hammer in hand. Now a nicely pressed white shirt and cappuccino? Picture perfect. 

I'm not talking about Andy McPhail.  I'm talking about the unmentionable one.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Aichiman said:

I'm not talking about Andy McPhail.  I'm talking about the unmentionable one.

Lee MacPhail?

[wabene]

33 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Lee MacPhail?

Shhh