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Free Agent starting pitchers


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From mlbtraderumors.com - https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/mlb-free-agent-preview-starting-pitchers.html

To compete for next year, the Twins should sign three guys in those first four tiers. They won't, of course, but that's pretty much the only way they'll get a usable pitching staff. If they don't do that they should just go ahead and go full rebuild. Trade Buxton, Polanco, Arreaz, Rogers, Kepler, anything with a pulse, and be ready for 2024/2025. Of course, they won't do that either. They'll end up signing Pineda and maybe another Happ type and end up with another 70-75 or so wins season.

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There are 30 MLB teams and 15 players in those top four tiers. Expecting a single mid-market team to sign 20% of those those 15 players is a pretty unreasonable ask.

But my expectation is for the Twins to sign one of those top guys (not top four tiers, maybe top three) and then one higher-upside reach on a shorter contract. Then they can go get a filler like Pineda.

(not that it needs to happen in that particular order but come February, that's what I want to see)

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I truly believe it’s an organizational philosophy set by the Pohlads to not spend big money on free agent pitching. I won’t believe it until I see it. Which takes out the first 2 tiers in the linked article. 

They’ll probably go after a mid-tier option like Alex Wood or Jon Gray… Look to bring back Pineda, then sign 1 or 2 bounce back candidates like Heaney and Duffy. 

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1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

From mlbtraderumors.com - https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/mlb-free-agent-preview-starting-pitchers.html

To compete for next year, the Twins should sign three guys in those first four tiers. They won't, of course, but that's pretty much the only way they'll get a usable pitching staff. If they don't do that they should just go ahead and go full rebuild. Trade Buxton, Polanco, Arreaz, Rogers, Kepler, anything with a pulse, and be ready for 2024/2025. Of course, they won't do that either. They'll end up signing Pineda and maybe another Happ type and end up with another 70-75 or so wins season.

I fail to see how trading Buxton and Arraez will get them ready for 2024-2025. Both of them will still be in their prime, with Buck at the tail end and Arraez entering it. If we want to compete 3 years down the line they are both definitely guys we want to hang on to.

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20 minutes ago, Andrew Mahlke said:

I fail to see how trading Buxton and Arraez will get them ready for 2024-2025. Both of them will still be in their prime, with Buck at the tail end and Arraez entering it. If we want to compete 3 years down the line they are both definitely guys we want to hang on to.

I agree but the Twins only have one more year of control over Buxton and probably won't sign him. 

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24 minutes ago, Andrew Mahlke said:

I fail to see how trading Buxton and Arraez will get them ready for 2024-2025. Both of them will still be in their prime, with Buck at the tail end and Arraez entering it. If we want to compete 3 years down the line they are both definitely guys we want to hang on to.

We're also trying to get the fans ready for 2022 and have to stay ahead of the marketing department.  Trading Polanco, Rogers, Kepler and anything with a pulse gets us a whole new set of 8-bit pixelated Twins commercials and $99 season tickets.  Trading Buxton and Arraez gets us to a level not seen in decades, and that's affordable beer.

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How attractive are the Twins to top FA pitchers? Twins did finish last in division last year. Takes at least 2 things to sign top FAs- the money and they have to want to come to Twins. I think Twins sign mid tier FA pitchers and make a trade. 

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I don't see any of the top tier Free Agent pitchers you mention coming to the Twins. They have other more appealing options, like organizations committed to winning and contending, not pretending. It'll be another off-season of "dumpster diving" and "hope and a prayer" signings of Free Agents. The only way they will acquire top tier pitching is thru trades and that is going to cost prospects. I'd rather see them punt 2022 and see what the top pitching prospects can do in 2022 that they have now.... Ryan, Ober, Duran, Balazovic, Canterino, Strotman, Winder, Sands, Woods-Richardson, etc, etc.... In the mean time they'll give Lewis another season to prove his worth, bring up Miranda, take a full-time look at Larnach, re-established Kirolloff's place on the team. Get rid of the dead weight in the lineup from Sano and Kepler. There are too many question marks going into 2022 to commit to it IMO.

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41 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I don't recall the Twins ever signed a top tier pitching FA. If they had or even 2nd tier I doubt they worked out.   I could be wrong.

Ervin Santana still holds the record for largest free agent contract the Twins have signed in 2014. He was mid-tier that offseason… Looking into it, that FA class had Jon Lester and Max Scherzer as the elite options, and Kenta Maeda was the top international FA option. 

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The Twins have the $ to make a serious 3-4yr deal for one of the better FA pitchers without breaking their payroll structure. Further, when said FA is entering his 3rd or 4th year, Donaldson's contract is off the books.

They went after Darvish pretty aggressively and targeted Wheeler initially before the door was slammed in their face early, before they even got a chance to compete. (Not just them, other teams as well). So I think they are going to take a serious look see.

Frankly, I don't know why a FA WOULDN'T look at the Twins. The FO has received high marks from the press and agents for their character and how they run things. Target Field is one of the best parks in all MLB. There is offense for support, and some more on the way. And let's not forget back to back winning/playoff teams in 2019-20. They lack pitching? Not so much if one or two of these guys signs on the dotted line.

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11 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

There are 30 MLB teams and 15 players in those top four tiers. Expecting a single mid-market team to sign 20% of those those 15 players is a pretty unreasonable ask.

But my expectation is for the Twins to sign one of those top guys (not top four tiers, maybe top three) and then one higher-upside reach on a shorter contract. Then they can go get a filler like Pineda.

(not that it needs to happen in that particular order but come February, that's what I want to see)

Trades could help on this front too since it is unlikely they corner the market.

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3 hours ago, DocBauer said:

The Twins have the $ to make a serious 3-4yr deal for one of the better FA pitchers without breaking their payroll structure. Further, when said FA is entering his 3rd or 4th year, Donaldson's contract is off the books.

They went after Darvish pretty aggressively and targeted Wheeler initially before the door was slammed in their face early, before they even got a chance to compete. (Not just them, other teams as well). So I think they are going to take a serious look see.

Frankly, I don't know why a FA WOULDN'T look at the Twins. The FO has received high marks from the press and agents for their character and how they run things. Target Field is one of the best parks in all MLB. There is offense for support, and some more on the way. And let's not forget back to back winning/playoff teams in 2019-20. They lack pitching? Not so much if one or two of these guys signs on the dotted line.

They're weren't close on Darvish. Not even a little. They want a top free agent, they need to offer the most money, just like every other team.

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The Twins have the money and the NEED.  Do they have the WILL ?  Robbie Ray and Marcus Stroman could be wishful thinking, although, without having to pay Berrios, they could make a run at one of them.  Jon Gray and Eduardo Rodriguez are two intriguing pitchers that are mid-tier.  I also like Kwang Hyun Kim (a Rich Hill type) as well as Danny Duffy.  Since they really need three, those guys along with Pineda seem likely targets, although I'm pushing for Robbie Ray and 2 guys acquired via TRADE to bolster the starting rotation.  Andrew Heaney remains an interesting guy.  I watch him pitch and his STUFF is impressive.  But then he gives up a 3-run HR and you wonder how it happened.  He looked like he had the guy "just where he wanted him" and then BOOM !!!  He'd be tempting "project" but the price would have to be right.  The MLB Trade Rumors list was extensive.  We'll all be using it this winter to see where the pieces fall.

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1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Provided their entire roster isn’t ravaged by injury again, their defense should be average to good. There isn’t an obvious black hole at any position except maybe first. 

Question Brock.  I wasn't able to watch the Twins this year as I refused to go back to my dumpster cable company.  So I wasn't able to see Kirilloff at first base.  The little I have read, reports seem to indicate he is either decent to potentially pretty darn good.  I view him as their first baseman in 2022 and beyond.  What are your thoughts about his defense?

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28 minutes ago, roger said:

Question Brock.  I wasn't able to watch the Twins this year as I refused to go back to my dumpster cable company.  So I wasn't able to see Kirilloff at first base.  The little I have read, reports seem to indicate he is either decent to potentially pretty darn good.  I view him as their first baseman in 2022 and beyond.  What are your thoughts about his defense?

I barely saw him there, personally. He looked fine from what I saw but I don’t recall anything sticking out in my head either way. 

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All I know is that whatever moves are suggested by the would be GMs on this board, the Twins group of researchers will study their spread sheets and do none of the above. Probably sign another "framing" catcher and say "Now the entire pitching staff will improve because the square root of pitches framed and called strikes x pie with a factor of 3x the left fielders ops = 20 more wins depending on which ball parks they occur in.

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3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Provided their entire roster isn’t ravaged by injury again, their defense should be average to good. There isn’t an obvious black hole at any position except maybe first. 

Healthy is a big if and you forgot the hole at short

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I'd definitely be interested in Greinke on a 1-2 year deal. Either him, or someone at the Jon Gray/Matz/Wood level, then sign Pineda. I expect the Twins to sign Pineda and someone like Rich Hill, and win 80-85 games next year. 

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9 hours ago, roger said:

Question Brock.  I wasn't able to watch the Twins this year as I refused to go back to my dumpster cable company.  So I wasn't able to see Kirilloff at first base.  The little I have read, reports seem to indicate he is either decent to potentially pretty darn good.  I view him as their first baseman in 2022 and beyond.  What are your thoughts about his defense?

 

8 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I barely saw him there, personally. He looked fine from what I saw but I don’t recall anything sticking out in my head either way. 

I did see  lot of the games. he was definitely average to above average at 1B. Having Morneau work with him will only make him better. Like how Tom Kelly helped Morneau get better, I believe Morneau will do that for Kiriloff, as he has talked about doing that during a few broadcasts.

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On 10/19/2021 at 1:36 PM, Doctor Gast said:

I don't recall the Twins ever signed a top tier pitching FA. If they had or even 2nd tier I doubt they worked out.   I could be wrong.

How many "top tier" SPs do you remember being signed by any team with average or below average revenue.  I will help you out. There have been two in the past 20 years.  Mike Hampton by Colorado.  If you Google Rockies worst free agent signings you will see him listed.  The other is Zack Grienke.  It should be noted that Grienke's signing came on the heels of the Dbacks signing a billion dollar TV deal.   

I am continually amazed people think this is a Twins thing.  History is exceedingly clear.  It's a revenue thing.  How is anyone surprised the most expensive free agents are signed by the teams with the most revenue.  Is anyone surprised when people with average incomes don't live in million dollar homes?

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