What do you expect the Twins to do this upcoming free agency? Trades?

[cHawk]

This thread speaks for itself. We’re looking to next year (or later). The way next year goes depends heavily on how this offseason goes.

 

[Mike Sixel]

I think they'll deal for a #2/3 type starter from their minor league depth.

I think they'll sign a SS and/or SP to one year deals (mistake, imo).

I think they'll sign Buxton. (which should be in your list)

[cHawk]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I think they'll sign Buxton. (which should be in your list)

Just added it.

[Rosterman]

I hope they figure out Buxton so they know what they can do with Martin and Lewis going forwards.

 

If they feel they can put together a decent rotation amongst Maeda, Jax, Barnes, Oder, Strotman, Balazovic, Ryan with names like Sands, Duran and others close behind, I could stomach a Pineda, although I think they could probably trade prospects, too.

 

Can they get a real closer?

 

I don't want to see so much dumpster diving behind the dollar store.,..anymore.

 

[Vanimal46]

I think there will be rumors swirling that they’re in on several of the free agent SS options. Corey Seager is my top priority to sign, and they will need to go above and beyond to get it done. Javy Baez would be a great consolation prize. 

The bullpen will be prioritized in free agency, through a mix of “dumpster diving” waiver wire claims and 1 + option year signings. And I’m perfectly fine with that. Spending big money on such a fickle position like RP is not the best use of available funds. 

The rotation will be addressed through free agency (more Happ/Shoemaker types with hopefully better results) and ideally a trade for someone who can be a #2/3. 

Extending Buxton will be the riskiest move of the offseason. But I think it gets done. A happy medium 3-5 year deal with plenty of incentives if he ever plays more than 100 games again. 

[Dave The Dastardly]

I think they'll beg every other team to take Donaldson and his contract off their hands and not find a taker. So then they'll trade Sano to the Red Sox, where he'll become the next Big Papi, for a couple high school prospects and move Donaldson to DH and have a pinch runner ready in case he doesn't hit a homer every time up.

Then they'll sign a couple free agent pitchers that used to be good, paying them millions, so they can keep their top pitching prospects in the minor leagues for another year while the "wily" veterans they just acquired do little more than take up a couple of 40-man roster spots so we can leave a like number of prospects unprotected in the Rule 5 draft, who will then immediately star on their new major league teams despite having been rated "not ready" by the Twins talent scouts.

They'll sign Buxton for a billion bucks, keep Kepler, Cave and Lewis for use as Buxton backups for when he spends his usual half the season on the IL, move Astudillo to the bull pen where he will eventually take over the closer role and extend Simmons for $15 million so they can keep Polanco at 2nd and trade Arraez for a utility player that can field but not hit to make room for Lewis.

Take it to the Bank.

 

[Dodecahedron]

Dumpster diving - of course, every team does it
I'm guessing the bullpen will be the focus.

As for Buxton, I think it's safe to say there is a 50% chance that he has played his last game as a Minnesota Twin, and that 50% might be way low.  It's unfortunate, but that's the way the wind is blowing.

[Major League Ready]

Depends on if the strategy is approached from the perspective of contending next year or is the approach based on the best strategy for building a contender without a singular focus on next year.  IMO, the best way to get back to contention is a product of giving the numerous SP prospects time at the ML level.  We can’t do that by filling rotation slots with free agents.  Building through free agency is also a poor strategy in general for a mid-market team.  I also believe they could put a very good rotation together by signing one very good free agent SP and filling the rest of the rotation with Maeda / Ober / Ryan / Winder / Jax / Barnes to start the season and eventually getting to Balazovic / Duran / Canterino and Enlow.  By 2023 a couple of these guys will end up in the BOP and the rotation will be a product of a competition for the remaining spots.

Another transition needs to take place at 3B.  Donaldson needs to be moved this off-season or could also be moved at the deadline with Miranda taking over at 3B.  Of course, SS needs to be addressed.  Does not matter if it’s free agency or a trade if Donaldson is moved.  I like the idea of trading Arraez for a SS but a team doing that is not trading an established ML SS.  Ideally we would find a SS that is blocked at the ML level.  Trading for Arreaz for a ML ready SS potentially resolves the problem for the next several years while maintaining payroll room for a final piece.
 

[Dman]

They need to solve shortstop and they know they need to solve it so they will do something there but it might be short term again unless they find a taker for Donaldson.  No guarantee those good FA shortstops get away from their current teams either.  

I still think they go for Starters on short term deals as I still believe they want to build a young rotation kind of like Cleveland.  They don't seem to like the risks associated with big time FA pitchers on long term deals.  They seem like they are in the hunt sometimes but they have yet to land anyone.  I don't see them trading for a starter either but then again I didn't see the Maeda deal happening so you never know but I would say the odds are that they likely feel they got the young close to ready arms they wanted at the deadline.

I think they will look at the bullpen and try and find guys with better K rates as they got burned going against their better instincts with Colome.  They are still trying their waiver wire guys out and they have a few homegrown options as well.  They will do more for the pen but I think numbers play a larger role this time.

[Unwinder]

2 hours ago, Dodecahedron said:

Dumpster diving - of course, every team does it
I'm guessing the bullpen will be the focus.

As for Buxton, I think it's safe to say there is a 50% chance that he has played his last game as a Minnesota Twin, and that 50% might be way low.  It's unfortunate, but that's the way the wind is blowing.

He's literally starting rehab with the Saints tonight. Unless he gets injured there, he'll play at least a few more games this year.

[Unwinder]

33 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Donaldson needs to be moved this off-season or could also be moved at the deadline with Miranda taking over at 3B.

 

9 minutes ago, Dman said:

,,,unless they find a taker for Donaldson.

 

2 hours ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

I think they'll beg every other team to take Donaldson and his contract off their hands and not find a taker.

I may be off-base here (I haven't been following the sport for long), but I'm starting to think that the FO might view Donaldson as the last remaining healthy Big Name on the team, and therefore one of the last remaining reasons to buy tickets to Target Field. I ignorantly predict they'll make a token effort to explore their options, but won't make a serious attempt to move him in the offseason.

[TwinsDr2021]

If my math is close to correct, the Twins as of right now before arb salaries are included the payroll for next year is 52ish, if they trade Donaldson that brings it down to 30 million.  With Rogers and Buxton as Arb 4, Duffey as Arb 3, Garver as arb 2, and bunch with less, if they trade Buxton, they will have to spend around 100 million on just next years salaries to get back to this year.

There seems like no chance they would do that, for good reasons and being cheap, also I don't understand the trading Donaldson and giving the job to a guy that hasn't even played in the majors, didn't work so well for AK and Laranch this year.

IMO, they try to sign one of the top FA starters, get turned down, end up with a couple Cobb, Duffy, Smyly, Quintana types. Bring in a couple colome types for the pen. And take a SS that is willing to sign a two year contract. Keeping Donaldson and Buxton just to get the payroll up to acceptable.

[Major League Ready]

40 minutes ago, Unwinder said:

 

 

I may be off-base here (I haven't been following the sport for long), but I'm starting to think that the FO might view Donaldson as the last remaining healthy Big Name on the team, and therefore one of the last remaining reasons to buy tickets to Target Field. I ignorantly predict they'll make a token effort to explore their options, but won't make a serious attempt to move him in the offseason.

You might be right but I don't believe Donaldson is a big draw. for a number or reasons.  I also believe the overall appeal of the team / product is much more important.  That starts with winning but guys like Buxton that do amazing things has bread appeal.  Donaldson in his prime had some of that appeal but he is just a good player now.  If Miranda came up and continued to perform, he might have more appeal than Donaldson.  A rookie making a splash is exciting for fans.

Moving Donaldson allows them to extend Buxton and add a high-end starting pitcher.  That's the best way to put butts in seats IMO and it's improves the teams chances for sustained success.  They could even sign a SP and a SS and extend Buxton if they did not have to eat much of Donaldson's contract but I doubt that is the case.  

[Major League Ready]

58 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

If my math is close to correct, the Twins as of right now before arb salaries are included the payroll for next year is 52ish, if they trade Donaldson that brings it down to 30 million.  With Rogers and Buxton as Arb 4, Duffey as Arb 3, Garver as arb 2, and bunch with less, if they trade Buxton, they will have to spend around 100 million on just next years salaries to get back to this year.

There seems like no chance they would do that, for good reasons and being cheap, also I don't understand the trading Donaldson and giving the job to a guy that hasn't even played in the majors, didn't work so well for AK and Laranch this year.

IMO, they try to sign one of the top FA starters, get turned down, end up with a couple Cobb, Duffy, Smyly, Quintana types. Bring in a couple colome types for the pen. And take a SS that is willing to sign a two year contract. Keeping Donaldson and Buxton just to get the payroll up to acceptable.

Assuming league minimum goes up to $650K which might be light, they would be at roughly $85M if they filled all the holes with league minimum players.  That gives them roughly $45M to get back to 2021 payroll level.  Trading Donaldson would give them $66M assuming a team would take all his salary which is not likely.  If you spend $30M on a SP you have lets call it $30-36M to spend between a SS / BP and extending Buxton.

Kenta Maeda	9,000,000
Bailey Ober	650,000
Joe Ryan	650,000
Griffin Jax	650,000
Charlie Barnes	650,000
Josh Winder
Matt Canterino
Jhoan Dyran
Blayne Enlow
Relief Pitchers
Taylor Rogers	8,000,000
Tyler Duffey	3,300,000
Jorge Alcala	650,000
Caleb Thielbar	650,000
Juan Minaya	650,000
John Gant	650,000
Edgar Garcia	650,000
Randy Dobnak	800,000
Ralph Garza	Drew Strotman
Jovanni Moran
Alex Colome  (buyout)
Catchers
Mitch Garver	2,700,000
Ryan Jeffers	650,000
Ben Rortvedt
Infielders
Miguel Sano	9,250,000
Jorge Polanco	5,500,000
Josh Donaldson	21,750,000
SS	650,000
Luis Arraez	1,500,000
Nick Gordon	650,000
Outfielders
Max Kepler	6,750,000
Byron Buxton	7,000,000
Trevor Larnach	650,000
Alex Kirilloff	650,000
Rob Refsneider	650,000
TOTAL PAYROLL	85,300,000

[dex8425]

1 hour ago, Unwinder said:

 

 

I may be off-base here (I haven't been following the sport for long), but I'm starting to think that the FO might view Donaldson as the last remaining healthy Big Name on the team, and therefore one of the last remaining reasons to buy tickets to Target Field. I ignorantly predict they'll make a token effort to explore their options, but won't make a serious attempt to move him in the offseason.

Buxton is the guy people want to see at Target Field. But the biggest draw is a competitive team. When the Twins were bad and had a hall of famer on the team (Mauer) people didn't show up to see Mauer.  I like Donaldson but most casual fans don't follow the team if the team isn't good. 

[TwinsDr2021]

27 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Assuming league minimum goes up to $650K which might be light, they would be at roughly $85M if they filled all the holes with league minimum players. 

Spotrac has Maeda at 3 million and 125K for a bonus next year, that is what I was going off, and I said if they traded Buxton.

Which puts our numbers roughly the same. And I was assuming the beginning of the year payroll was closer to 140, which I may have been wrong in that.

Also, I am not disagreeing with you, but the question  was "What do you expect the Twins to do this upcoming free agency?"

not what we think they should do, that is what I think they will do.

I think they feel pretty good with Sano/AK, Polanco, Donaldson and a fill in at SS, with Arraez as sub for 2B, 3B, OF that gets lots of playing time. A Ehire Adrianza (could be Gordon) type to back all infield positions. With Miranda waiting in the wings, in case Sano, AK or Donaldson get hurt. (or suck) and hopefully forcing his way up

Buxton, Kepler and right handed hitting FA (or Refsnyder/Garlick) and AK platooning, with Larnach like Miranda waiting in the wings and hopefully forcing his way up. Jeffers/Garver at C and maybe Astudillo.

Maeda and Ober seem like locks, go out and get two starters (arg like they did this year) and maybe trade for one, or hope Dobnak gets healthy and good, and then they have a slew of rookies waiting in the wings to come up as a back up plan.

Then fill in the bullpen as they seemingly always do.

Like I said above I think they will make a play for Rondon/Ray/Stroman etc.. and end up not getting them.

Is this the plan I would do? Nope but if they want to keep their jobs, IMO they can't have a plan where Miranda is starting at 3B (with no real MLB as a backup), Jeffers at C, AK either in the OF or 1B, and Larnach starting in the OF, and 3 rookie type starting pitching. That is a recipe for failure, because if they struggle who do you bring up to replace them? More unproven players?

 

 

[Major League Ready]

35 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Spotrac has Maeda at 3 million and 125K for a bonus next year, that is what I was going off, and I said if they traded Buxton.

Which puts our numbers roughly the same. And I was assuming the beginning of the year payroll was closer to 140, which I may have been wrong in that.

Also, I am not disagreeing with you, but the question  was "What do you expect the Twins to do this upcoming free agency?"

not what we think they should do, that is what I think they will do.

I think they feel pretty good with Sano/AK, Polanco, Donaldson and a fill in at SS, with Arraez as sub for 2B, 3B, OF that gets lots of playing time. A Ehire Adrianza (could be Gordon) type to back all infield positions. With Miranda waiting in the wings, in case Sano, AK or Donaldson get hurt. (or suck) and hopefully forcing his way up

Buxton, Kepler and right handed hitting FA (or Refsnyder/Garlick) and AK platooning, with Larnach like Miranda waiting in the wings and hopefully forcing his way up. Jeffers/Garver at C and maybe Astudillo.

Maeda and Ober seem like locks, go out and get two starters (arg like they did this year) and maybe trade for one, or hope Dobnak gets healthy and good, and then they have a slew of rookies waiting in the wings to come up as a back up plan.

Then fill in the bullpen as they seemingly always do.

Like I said above I think they will make a play for Rondon/Ray/Stroman etc.. and end up not getting them.

Is this the plan I would do? Nope but if they want to keep their jobs, IMO they can't have a plan where Miranda is starting at 3B (with no real MLB as a backup), Jeffers at C, AK either in the OF or 1B, and Larnach starting in the OF, and 3 rookie type starting pitching. That is a recipe for failure, because if they struggle who do you bring up to replace them? More unproven players?

 

 

You are using a number for Maeda which you know is most likely wrong and you ignored there are about 15 slots to fill the roster beyond the handful of contract and pre-arb players.  That's why I included an estimate.  You are not alone, many people look at various websites and find a number that is not inclusive of all the cost and then use it as a baseline.  This is going to produce a very poor estimate.

What will they do?  IDK.  That's why I said it depends on how they balance following the best long-term strategy.  I think a lot of fans will probably be disappointed because I doubt they have the singular focus on 2022 that some fans are going to have.  It's also very difficult to predict some of the variables.  Can they get a Buxton extension done and can they find a trade partner for Donaldson.  The landscape also changes if they believe as I do that Arraez does not fit well on this roster.  Trading him could also change  the 2022 and 2023 plan depending on the return.  

Any attempt to predict what they will do or even should do at this moment is not exactly an educated forecast.

[TwinsDr2021]

7 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

You are using a number for Maeda which you know is most likely wrong and you ignored there are about 15 slots to fill the roster beyond the handful of contract and pre-arb players.  That's why I included an estimate.  You are not alone, many people look at various websites and find a number that is not inclusive of all the cost and then use it as a baseline.  This is going to produce a very poor estimate.

 Kenta Maeda signed a 8 year / $25,000,000 contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, including a $1,000,000 signing bonus, $25,000,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $3,125,000. In 2021, Maeda will earn a base salary of $3,000,000, while carrying a total salary of $3,125,000. Maeda's adjusted salary with the Minnesota Twins is $2,561,000

Contract Notes:

• Innings Pitched Bonus
  $250,000 each for: 90, 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, 190, 200
• Games Started Bonus 
  $1M each for: 15, 20,
  $1.5M each for 25, 30, 32 
• Trade Assignment Bonus: $1M
• Opening Day Roster Bonus: $150,000
• Per 2/9/20 trade, Dodgers retain $10M (assumed to be 2020-2022 salary + trade bonus)

So yes I missed adding in the "possible" incentives, should have looked a bit further. I am not sure where you got your 9 million but maybe it is assuming he pitches 200 innings and makes 30 or 31 starts and the Dodgers covered his base the salary?

So I guess it is good I am not alone, we both left out important details and both produced a very poor estimate, mine was probably more accurate since he hasn't earned any incentives in 2022 yet, but both were wrong

In case you need to read it again, here is what I wrote.

If my math is close to correct, the Twins as of right now before arb salaries are included the payroll for next year is 52ish, if they trade Donaldson that brings it down to 30 million.  With Rogers and Buxton as Arb 4, Duffey as Arb 3, Garver as arb 2, and bunch with less, if they trade Buxton, they will have to spend around 100 million on just next years salaries to get back to this year.

I am correct it is 52ish million, then there are the Arb guys, then there there is around 80 million to finish out the roster without Donaldson and Buxton, in my first post I was assuming a payroll around 140 million, but around 130 million would be more accurate and that is what I said in my reply) I assumed people would understand I was saying to fill out the roster next year (including Arb guys, rookies, free agents)

32 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

What will they do?  IDK. 

Nobody does, I thought the premise of this thread was what do you think they will do. Not argue or be a jerk if you disagree with somebody's option. I do thank you for pointing out Maeda, so I could look further and see the incentives and that the Dodgers actually covered the salary piece next year

35 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Any attempt to predict what they will do or even should do at this moment is not exactly an educated forecast.

I guess you should take that up with cHawk he started the thread.

 

 

 

[Tim]

Pitching ... I think Dansby Swansby is an intriguing trade option at SS if the Braves go after one of the big Shortstops

[Mark G]

5 hours ago, Unwinder said:

He's literally starting rehab with the Saints tonight. Unless he gets injured there, he'll play at least a few more games this year.

I think the 50% chance that dodecahedron was alluding to was the chance Buxton will slip on the wet grass, twist an ankle, and go on the IL (again).  The Twins will see that as a sign and trade him in the off season. 

[Unwinder]

15 minutes ago, Mark G said:

I think the 50% chance that dodecahedron was alluding to was the chance Buxton will slip on the wet grass, twist an ankle, and go on the IL (again).  The Twins will see that as a sign and trade him in the off season. 

Oh, well, yeah, I mean, possibly 75%

[lake_guy]

Hopefully the FO has learned that we need pitching and then more pitching and finally lots more pitching in order to compete.  If they seriously go after pitching like they should I am not opposed to signing Simmons again at the right price.  The guy isn't the reason it's a lost season...the pitching is.  I think they will get a deal done with Buxton or if they can't they better trade him for ....pitching.  Donaldson probably isn't going anywhere and we need a DH, Sano is not the answer.  

And of course there is the CBA to consider.  I don't think it's 0% we see a stoppage.  If they negotiate a lower # of years to free agency that will be interesting to see what it opens up for talent to move around.

[DocBauer]

While I think it's way, way too early to speculate FA at this point...auditions are ongoing for a few guys and "room" and "need" could change via trades still... I'm game! 

1] The Twins need a quality SP. "Duh, Doc!" Even with Donaldson on board, even with Sano on board, we can speculate $40-50M to work with. Could this FO pull off another Odorizzi or Maeda trade deal. Yes. They've done it before. But there are so many interesting arms out there, you HAVE to consider the possibilities of $ spent while keeping your system in tact. 

I can't stress this enough, the Twins made a major move for both Darvish and Wheeler the past few years. Darvish got an extra year guaranteed and the Twins were then out. Wheeler made it clear he wasn't leaving the east coast, so we were toast almost immediately. Thor for 4-5yrs at $20-25M with incentives and maybe an out clause after 2? Intrigued! (Assuming the Mets don't step up with a QO that might change the field for EVERYONE). Gausman, Stroman? Gausman might want to pull a "west coast" version of Wheeler. Stroman has been tied to the Twins for years now. Is it time? Or could we be talking about a short term, high risk but high reward deal for Greinke or Verlander?

Many ways to go, and none of them wrong. I am somewhere between 60/40 and 70/30 they will sign a quality FA SP vs pulling off a trade. It just makes too much sense to me.

2] They are going to re-sign Pineda, OR, someone they feel is his equivalent on a 1, 1+1, or 2yr deal to stabilize the #3 spot.

3] They ARE going to sign someone to play SS. But sorry, it's NOT going to be one of the BIG options. (Caveat, Donaldson gone could change thjs approach, but how much $ do we have to eat is a MAJOR caveat as well). The pieces are intact for a quality lineup with depth. They need a placeholder at SS for now. I think Galvis js a great fit. I'm also in on Iglesias. Neither is perfect, but each could be a good temporary fit. Don't shoot me to tell you Simmons could be back on a 1yr deal. His offense before thjs season was at least average.

4] Despite their belief in building a pen, they WILL sign a quality pen arm on a 2yr deal. They WON'T drop $10M to do so! Where it gets complicated is Colome has 2nd year option for around $5M. Except for a recent bad game, he's looked like the veteran they THOUGHT they were signing from about June on. Nobody wants to hear this, but history is important as well as a strong finish. They either keep him, or spend $5-6-ishM on an arm.

5] They will then spend another $2.5-4M-ish on a Robles type arm for depth and competition hoping they guess right. They believe in their ability to build a pen but don't want to risk another implosion. And they don't want to just suddenly convert legitimate SP arms to the pen. 

6] When looking towards 2022, I absolutely believe the FO understands and appreciates how much this roster needs a quality 4th OF who can bring a decent offensive game as well as being counted on as a viable defensive option. They HAVE to have somebody to semi-platoon with Kepler, Larnach, Kirilloff and be able to fill in behind Buxton so Kepler isn't the only option. Personally, I think the FO and staff believe the re-invented Refsnyder is for real. Not to the degree he's produced so far, he's going to regress to a more medium norm. But will they bank on him? I'm thinking they will look long and hard at RH OF option. And that shouldn't be an expensive alternative/option.

Summary:

A $25M SP. Incentives don't count and ANY team gladly pays them. 

Pineda or similar veteran for $8-10M to stabilize the rotation.

A $5-6M RP whether it be Colome or replacement.

A secondary RP, possible bounce back, who is $2.5-4M arm.

A filll-jn SS that is anywhere from $3M-5M based on what I've proposed.

A maybe RH 4th OF for $2-4M.

While the SP $ are debatable, the other $ presented safe to maybe high. So we're talking $50M-ish. For a team that talks about competing in 2022, and may yet shed additional salary, anything close to $50M in FA additions should not only be safe, but easy to manage.