Utility Debate: Jurickson Profar Vs. Kiké Hernández

[Nash Walker]

The Twins will need to fill at least one utility spot via free agency or trade this offseason. Given the injury histories of Jorge Polanco, Luis Arraez, Byron Buxton and Josh Donaldson, this role has started a ton of games over the last two years. Let’s debate a few options.Kiké Hernández

 

THE BAT:

 

Hernández clearly sticks out on this market. His recent playoff heroics pushed Twins fans to focus on his fit with the hometown club. The 29-year-old has hit .240/.312/.425 (97 OPS+) since 2015 for the Dodgers. He owns a career 120 wRC+ against lefties, a matchup in which the Twins oddly struggled in 2020. He’s a right-handed hitter, allowing him to spare Luis Arraez or Jorge Polanco, who is much better as a lefty. His on-base ability is a concern, however. Hernández owns just a .296 OBP over his last 608 plate appearances.

 

In another area the Twins seem to value and lack at times, Hernández has great energy. He’ll call out his team publicly for lacking juice on the diamond and in the dugout. Another infusion of life and edge wouldn’t be the worst thing for Rocco Baldelli’s group. Hernández could provide that postseason boost he’s supplied to the Dodgers, finally helping to push the Twins over the top.

 

THE GLOVE:

 

Hernández is a plus-plus defender at second. Only the back-to-back Gold Glove winner Kolten Wong has saved more runs at the position since 2019. The emergence of Corey Seager has limited Kiké’s time at short over the last few years. In over 530 career innings there, Hernández has saved three runs defensively. His ability to back up Polanco is key. Do the Twins believe he can play regularly in the hole?

 

Kiké is intriguingly solid in centerfield. He’s played 1,000-plus innings out there, saving four runs. Similar to Seager, 2019 N.L. MVP Cody Bellinger has kept Hernández away from center in recent years. He’s also played third, left, right, first and even got an out on the mound in 2018. He’s the definition of super-utility. The Twins seem to agree:

 

 

Jurickson Profar

 

THE BAT:

 

Profar was ranked as the No.1 prospect in baseball in 2012. He was largely a disappointment, hitting just .229/.309/.329 (71 OPS+) through the first seven seasons of his career. Now into his late 20s, Profar has been much better since 2018. His OPS+ has jumped 30%, now placing him slightly above league average. His walk rate remained a solid 8.9% and he’s laced 47 homers and 65 doubles over the last 341 games. He had a career year in 2020. He hit .278/.343/.428 (113 OPS+) in 56 games for the Padres. His bat looks good enough to start, which may be an issue for the Twins’ chances of signing him.

 

THE GLOVE:

 

Profar’s metrics paint him as quite poor on the dirt. He’s cost his teams 20 runs at second base, six at short and four at third. He hasn’t played shortstop since 2018 when he tied for third worst in outs above average (negative-7) at the position. He was absolutely brutal at second base in 2019 with negative-15 defensive runs saved, the worst among all second baseman. He’s been much better in the outfield in a more limited sample. He saved three runs in left field in 34 starts in 2020.

 

THE BOTTOM LINE

 

Given the Twins’ need for a solid back-up infielder, Hernández makes a lot more sense. Profar’s defense isn’t much of an upgrade over Polanco, even if he can still play short. Hernández can seemingly fill-in for Byron Buxton in center as well. Given Hernández’s struggles at the dish in recent years, though, one must wonder if shooting higher in free agency is a more desirable option. There’s also the trade market, where someone like Ketel Marte may reside.

 

What do you think about filling the utility role? Comment below!

 

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[Doctor Gast]

 Thank you Nash for bringing   up  a subject I'm passionate about.      We don`t need another Gonzalez (although he's an above average utility player that played quite a few good games for us).       What the Twins need the most is a super utility who is an upgrade SS & back up CF glove W/ at least average bat. We've been hurting so long there. Some one who I can start at SS & sub for Buxton. I don't care Profar has progressed to to slightly above average bat if his glove isn't up to par, I wouldn't be interested. Hernandez is a much better fit, I like his athleticism to play SS & CF,    clutch hitting,     his fire which would be even greater because he wants to prove he's an every day player to the MLB. This motivation we     would also see an improvement in his defense as well as his offense. So Hernandez is my choice of FA utility.

Even though I really like Hernandez he is my #3 choice. My first 2 choices are trade options.

#2 is teammate                  Chris Taylor, he's a better bat & excels at SS besides being as solid CF as Hernandez. He could be motivated also to get in more games as a starter role, he could improve. LAD sees the importance of super utility  & has a deep supply so he could be available. He'd be cheap in salary & would take a low prospect in trade.

#1 is Ketel Marte, he's a great hitter as well as an upgrade at SS & solid in CF. His salary is desirable as stated but we have to give up a lot in trade.

A common utility who doesn't play an adequate SS or CF is not acceptable. These 3 fit my criteria & I'd be happy w/ any of them it depends how deep FO wants to go in trading prospects

 

[DasBat]

I don’t have any interest in Profar. Hernandez is a decent option, but only if the price is right

[GNess]

Royce Lewis may well be ready for this role this season. If so, resources can be used for other positions - SP, RP, DH, SS....

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Bring up Lewis and use him as the super utility guy to take advantage of his many defensive talents and to give him the needed major league experience now, rather than later. 

[Doctor Gast]

 

Bring up Lewis and use him as the super utility guy to take advantage of his many defensive talents and to give him the needed major league experience now, rather than later. 

This is my                 hope also but what I hear is that they are not in a hurry to bring him up. Hernandez or Taylor would be for 1yr. by that time Lewis should be ready. 

[Major League Ready]

Can someone explain what about the performance of Royce Lewis would indicate he is ready for the majors? He was good in Low A. He was mediocre in his first year at A+ with an OPS of 726. He was worse in his 2nd year of A+ with an OPS of 665. He was promoted to AA in spite of his lack luster performance. The sum total of his experience at AA is 33 games with a 649 OPS. How does this track record indicate he is ready for the majors? It makes me question if he will ever be an impact player. I still maintain hope but I want to see some sustained success at AA or above before he gets a shot for more than a couple games. Ideally, he performs the 1st half of this season. Then, they can move him to St. Paul and take advantage of our AAA team being local to get a look at him at the MLB level. 

[The Wise One]

 

 Thank you Nash for bringing   up  a subject I'm passionate about.      We don`t need another Gonzalez (although he's an above average utility player that played quite a few good games for us).       What the Twins need the most is a super utility who is an upgrade SS & back up CF glove W/ at least average bat. We've been hurting so long there. Some one who I can start at SS & sub for Buxton. I don't care Profar has progressed to to slightly above average bat if his glove isn't up to par, I wouldn't be interested. Hernandez is a much better fit, I like his athleticism to play SS & CF,    clutch hitting,     his fire which would be even greater because he wants to prove he's an every day player to the MLB. This motivation we     would also see an improvement in his defense as well as his offense. So Hernandez is my choice of FA utility.

Even though I really like Hernandez he is my #3 choice. My first 2 choices are trade options.

#2 is teammate                  Chris Taylor, he's a better bat & excels at SS besides being as solid CF as Hernandez. He could be motivated also to get in more games as a starter role, he could improve. LAD sees the importance of super utility  & has a deep supply so he could be available. He'd be cheap in salary & would take a low prospect in trade.

#1 is Ketel Marte, he's a great hitter as well as an upgrade at SS & solid in CF. His salary is desirable as stated but we have to give up a lot in trade.

A common utility who doesn't play an adequate SS or CF is not acceptable. These 3 fit my criteria & I'd be happy w/ any of them it depends how deep FO wants to go in trading prospects

Taylor is set to make 7.8 million. I would hardly call that cheap considering at this time he would be the fourth highest paid Twin. 

[GNess]

 

Can someone explain what about the performance of Royce Lewis would indicate he is ready for the majors? He was good in Low A. He was mediocre in his first year at A+ with an OPS of 726. He was worse in his 2nd year of A+ with an OPS of 665. He was promoted to AA in spite of his lack luster performance. The sum total of his experience at AA is 33 games with a 649 OPS. How does this track record indicate he is ready for the majors? It makes me question if he will ever be an impact player. I still maintain hope but I want to see some sustained success at AA or above before he gets a shot for more than a couple games. Ideally, he performs the 1st half of this season. Then, they can move him to St. Paul and take advantage of our AAA team being local to get a look at him at the MLB level. 

He was MVP of Arizona Fall League. Some noise around how good he was this summer. His tool set is unmistakable, but you do make a good point - his production to date doesn't = his tools.

[Lonestar]

I was excited about the possibility of signing Profar until I realized how bad he was on dirt. Hard pass.

 

Hernandez is versatile and perhaps the second best defensive 2B out there (next to Wong) but he is also the short side of a platoon when the Twins have plenty of RH hitters. Much of his versatility will be lost because the Twins don't have the movable parts that the Dodgers do. Is he worth $7M? If YES, do the Twins have it? Is he worth $2-4M more than Freddy Galvis?

 

Taylor is not on the trade market. Nor is Marte. And if he was, Marte would cost more than Blake Snell would in trade -- almost Larnach + Duran + Balazovic..

[tony&rodney]

Ehire Adrianza is available. The consensus on this site seems to be a reduced budget, which makes EA a good fit. Cruz, SP, and RP are all more important decisions if the dollars are tight.

[TopGunn#22]

I think your priorities are right Tony&Rodney.  But if we have to choose between Hernandez and Profar it's clear to me that Hernandez is the much better fit.

 

Tom Kelly always had a philosophy that he wanted his bench players to be able to play defense.  Hernandez is head and shoulders better than Profar and he's very strong in areas we would need him most:  CF, SS & 2B.

 

Hernandez also has better power and an abundance of post season experience.

 

I'd rather trade for Ketel Marte and have a "regular" player with the ability to play CF, 2B, SS & 3B (and I'll bet he could play a corner outfield as well).  But Hernandez is clearly their best bet for "Super Utility."

 

That said, I'd like to see a better defensive SS and either move Polanco to 2B and Arraez to super utility (or trade Arraez---he's in HIGH demand for good reason).  OR, trade Polanco.  With a $4.33 million dollar salary for 2021 and an affordable contract going forward, Polanco would have trade interest as well.  

[tvagle]

Hernandez at the right price is the only one of these two worth pursuing

 

The Twins just let go of the most comparable player to Profar I can think of...Eddie Rosario

 

Rosario is far more accomplished than Profar (at a higher price tag) but if you want to watch the occasional fabulous play in the field followed by a months worth of WTH moments coupled with more head-scratching baserunning maneuvers than you've ever seen from Rosie by all means sign Profar

[Shaitan]

I hate to say this aloud, because it's entirely not based on quantifiable data, but I want a few players on the team who have been in championship and World Series games. 

 

That alone makes me favor Hernandez in this scenario.

[Shaitan]

 

Ehire Adrianza is available. The consensus on this site seems to be a reduced budget, which makes EA a good fit. Cruz, SP, and RP are all more important decisions if the dollars are tight.

 

And no rumors of demand for Marwin anywhere either (yet).

[jkcarew]

How long do you wait for a player that was drafted #1 overall (Lewis). The presumption is that he had the resources, attention, and reps in 2020 to continue his development. This will be his age 22 year. Bring him up or trade him for pitching.

[Major League Ready]

 

He was MVP of Arizona Fall League. Some noise around how good he was this summer. His tool set is unmistakable, but you do make a good point - his production to date doesn't = his tools.

 

Perhaps I should have prefaced my question with "other than a very small sample size in the Arizona Fall League". We really need him to succeed so his performance in the AFL gave me hope. However, it makes no sense to me to rely on him to start the season because he had a very good 22 game stretch. Let him demonstrate a mastery of at least AA for a couple months. Right now, this sounds exactly like the clamoring that went on for Berrios and he was more experienced and more proven than Lewis.

[specialiststeve]

 

How long do you wait for a player that was drafted #1 overall (Lewis). The presumption is that he had the resources, attention, and reps in 2020 to continue his development. This will be his age 22 year. Bring him up or trade him for pitching.

 

patience.. grasshopper....