Take Two: Pending Physicals, Twins and Dodgers Agree to Trade

[Diesel]

Jair Camargo. 20 year old catcher in low A. Not a top prospect by any means

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I may be the only one, but I dread losing Raley as much as losing Graterol. Raley is a masher and can field and run.

[howieramone2]

It's becoming clearer to me, why we received 10M.

[twinkiesfan11]

Jair Camargo. 20 year old catcher in low A. Not a top prospect by any means

https://twitter.com/jimcallismlb/status/1227029116152668167?s=21

 

Not a top prospect but sounds intriguing

[Otto von Ballpark]

Selling a draft pick and getting a low minors catcher back is what we did in the Phil Hughes to the Padres trade too...

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Let's not be giving LEN3 more credit than he deserves... He's a terrible writer and the next story he breaks will be his first.

I’d much rather read Warne than LEN3, but Lavelle was all over the Graterol trade, and has a long history of being a good beat reporter.

[howieramone2]

Got 7.5M for that second round pick ...

[bird]

 

I think this is right. It's not that he's a bad player or anything, but: he's 25, doesn't have an elite skill, and plays the easiest positions to fill. From the twins side of things he's also blocked by 2 players above him in the minors in Cave & Wade who have MLB experience and bat the same side, and is about to be passed by Larnach & Kirilloff from AA. Raley might have a future in MLB, but it's as a role-player and the twins have that covered. He's an easy asset to flip to make a deal work.

 

 

Yeah, and aside from Cave, Wade, Kirilloff, and Larnach, they also have all of these outfield prospects valued above the 35FV Raley: Rooker, Celestino, Urbina, Baddoo, Wallner, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Edouard Julien, and Willie Joe Garry, all at 40FV or better. That's a dozen more promising outfield prospects, and they might have to move Royce Lewis and/or Blankenhorn there too.

[bird]

 

Jair Camargo. 20 year old catcher in low A. Not a top prospect by any means

 

This Columbian kid might be a very interesting prospect to follow, in part because he's a catcher. FG has him at 35+FV already, a half grade better than Raley. 

 

The Twins have two other catching prospects valued by FG at 35+FV, Caleb Hamilton and Charles Mack, a converted MI. Rortvedt is a 40FV, and Jeffers is a 45+FV.

[nicksaviking]

 

I may be the only one, but I dread losing Raley as much as losing Graterol. Raley is a masher and can field and run.

 

I don't know if I'd call Raley a masher, he's had all of 11 HR since he came to the Twins. It looks like he may develop some good on base skills, but he doesn't look like a power guy. Between Raley, Kirilloff, Larnich, Rooker and Blankenhorn, Raley is the one I give up first, and with all of these guys approaching addition to the 40 man in one way or another, I think there was a very significant chance Raley would have been needed to be bumped from the 40-man if not during the season, than sometime after the conclusion. You can't carry that many corner bats.

[jmlease1]

 

I may be the only one, but I dread losing Raley as much as losing Graterol. Raley is a masher and can field and run.

 

You might be the only one.

 

Raley cleared a .500 SLG in a season for the first time in his pro career last year, not coincidentally when AAA started using the...lively...MLB baseball. He's a better fielder than Rooker, but hard to see him as a better power prospect.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This Columbian kid might be a very interesting prospect to follow, in part because he's a catcher. FG has him at 35+FV already, a half grade better than Raley. 

According to this article, Fangraphs currently has Raley at 35+ too, the same as Camargo:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-big-mookie-betts-deal-is-finally-happening-but-the-dodgers-angels-trade-isnt/

 

They apparently had Raley at 40 FV on their 2019 and 2019 updated lists as well. 2020 will be Camargo's first appearance on an org list.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

According to this article, Fangraphs currently has Raley at 35+ too, the same as Camargo:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-big-mookie-betts-deal-is-finally-happening-but-the-dodgers-angels-trade-isnt/

 

They apparently had Raley at 40 FV on their 2019 and 2019 updated lists as well. 2020 will be Camargo's first appearance on an org list.

Still, that's a trade the Twins should make every day given their organization, which has (probably) better players both in front and behind Raley, who was on the 40-man roster. There simply wasn't going to be room to keep him there for long, forcing another trade or trying to sneak him through waivers, which probably wouldn't be successful.

 

And if you can trade that kind of roster bloat for a catching flyer - something *much* harder to find in baseball - I do that all day long.

 

I scratch my head and don't really like the money/pick swap but I have zero issues with the Raley/Camargo part of the deal.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I scratch my head and don't really like the money/pick swap but I have zero issues with the Raley/Camargo part of the deal.

Oh agreed, I wasn't suggesting Raley was of any particular value to the Twins. Just correcting the cited Fangraphs FV figure.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

I don't know if I'd call Raley a masher, he's had all of 11 HR since he came to the Twins. It looks like he may develop some good on base skills, but he doesn't look like a power guy. Between Raley, Kirilloff, Larnich, Rooker and Blankenhorn, Raley is the one I give up first, and with all of these guys approaching addition to the 40 man in one way or another, I think there was a very significant chance Raley would have been needed to be bumped from the 40-man if not during the season, than sometime after the conclusion. You can't carry that many corner bats.

Good point about the 40 man roster. I was remembering seeing Raley hitting some long balls in spring training last year. Not a very large sample size, I know. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

According to this article, Fangraphs currently has Raley at 35+ too, the same as Camargo:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-big-mookie-betts-deal-is-finally-happening-but-the-dodgers-angels-trade-isnt/

 

They apparently had Raley at 40 FV on their 2019 and 2019 updated lists as well. 2020 will be Camargo's first appearance on an org list.

 

Looks like the prospects balanced out (though the Twins got the younger one), the Twins lost Grateral but got a middle of the staff starter with a team friendly contract plus $10 million dollars and lost a draft pick. Under the circumstances, I'd say this was a better trade than what the Twins originally agreed to. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Looks like the prospects balanced out (though the Twins got the younger one), the Twins lost Grateral but got a middle of the staff starter with a team friendly contract plus $10 million dollars and lost a draft pick. Under the circumstances, I'd say this was a better trade than what the Twins originally agreed to. 

I wonder if the Twins were considering selling the draft pick anyway, if the original trade had gone through, to clear payroll for Maeda.

 

Although we don't have any bad contracts like Hughes to attach it to at the moment, so it probably works better just to get the money with Maeda from LAD. (Although that also implies that the money comes in as $2.5 mil each season, which doesn't give us quite as much 2020 utility as the $10 mil total might imply.)

[Trevor0333]

The Twins get a compensation pick if Odorizzi leaves next year in FA right?

 

It makes sense to have Maeda replace Odorizzi next year in the rotation and prepare for one of Dobnak/Smeltzer/Thorpe/Balzovic/Dhuran to take the 5th spot. Then giving the team an extra pick to try and replace losing Graterol in the system.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins get a compensation pick if Odorizzi leaves next year in FA right?

No. A team can't make a qualifying offer to a player who has received one before, like Odorizzi has this winter.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The Twins get a compensation pick if Odorizzi leaves next year in FA right?

No. He was given the qualifying offer this offseason, which exempts him from ever being given a QO again (and therefore, no comp pick).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

No. A team can't make a qualifying offer to a player who has received one before, like Odorizzi has this winter.

I should have assumed spycake would manage to snipe me by a minute.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I should have assumed spycake would manage to snipe me by a minute.

And since my post came first, you shall not receive any compensation in the 2020 Twins Daily amateur draft.

[Rigby]

 

No. A team can't make a qualifying offer to a player who has received one before, like Odorizzi has this winter.

 

Well there goes $10M out the window......

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Well there goes $10M out the window......

Technically, free agent comp picks can't be traded anyway. Only "competitive balance" picks.

[Rigby]

 

Technically, free agent comp picks can't be traded anyway. Only "competitive balance" picks.

 

Taking things just a tad literally, aren't you?

[DocBauer]

https://twitter.com/jimcallismlb/status/1227029116152668167?s=21

 

Not a top prospect but sounds intriguing

Thank you! That was the piece I was attempting to quote a page or two ago but couldn't remember where I had originally found it.

[Nine of twelve]

 

This Columbian kid might be a very interesting prospect to follow, in part because he's a catcher. FG has him at 35+FV already, a half grade better than Raley. 

 

The Twins have two other catching prospects valued by FG at 35+FV, Caleb Hamilton and Charles Mack, a converted MI. Rortvedt is a 40FV, and Jeffers is a 45+FV.

Catching prospects are much more valuable than outfield or infield prospects.

[jorgenswest]

The Padres selected Grant Little with that pick the Twins sold in the Hughes deal.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/grant-little/sa3008031/stats?position=OF

[Otto von Ballpark]

Mentioned in the other forum, but the $10 mil cash is interesting here. Mirroring the structure of Maeda’s contract, the Dodgers are only guaranteed to pay the Twins $4 mil in 2020 — but will also pay up to $7 mil in incentives if Maeda earns them this year:

 

[bird]

 

According to this article, Fangraphs currently has Raley at 35+ too, the same as Camargo:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-big-mookie-betts-deal-is-finally-happening-but-the-dodgers-angels-trade-isnt/

 

They apparently had Raley at 40 FV on their 2019 and 2019 updated lists as well. 2020 will be Camargo's first appearance on an org list.

 

Guess they gave Raley a slight raise when they moved him after giving him an earlier demotion from his 2019 FV. 

 

Either way, he was still behind a dozen outfielders, talent-wise, in the system. Jair Camargo represents a minor upgrade in value, if for no other reason his position and his youth.