Article: Let's Make A Deal, Part VI: GM For A Deadline

[Jeremy Nygaard]

The deadline is upon us and the time to make a deal is closing fast. We all have great ideas to make the Twins franchise World Series champions for the first time since 1991. So you're the GM, what are you going to do?

Have you missed the earlier parts of this series?

Part 1: 2020

Part 2: Payroll

Part 3: The Ammunition

Part 4: The Sellers

Part 5: Who Are We Getting?

**********

The previous five articles linked above have led us to this place: willing to take on payroll, less willing to deal the best of our assets, but understanding the cost to do business in terms of adding controllable pieces.

 

My wishlist (in no particular order):

 

A controllable starting pitcher - Beyond Jose Berrios and the team holding an option on Martin Perez's contract for 2020, the other 60% of the rotation is on expiring contracts. While the current rotation has been durable and, at a minimum, capable, adding a quality starter to the stable would be a big step for this pennant race and next year.

 

A relief pitcher - While a reliever with team control would be preferred, getting a rental would suffice.

 

An elite pinch-runner - There will come a time between now and the end of the season that Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano or Jason Castro will be the tying or go-ahead run on second base... and out of the dugout will trot Ehire Adrianza. Adding this piece would be ideal at the end of August, right before rosters expand... but that's not allowed anymore. So we shop in July!

 

Holding on to my top six prospects - What? If I can accomplish the above tasks without moving any of Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Brusdar Graterol, Jordan Balazovic, Jhoan Duran or Trevor Larnach, I'd be ecstatic. It doesn't mean I won't do it. I'd just prefer not to.

 

Without further adieu, my moves:

 

Acquire SP Mike Minor from the Texas Rangers. It's not the most appealing name, but Minor has had the most productive 2019 season of all the pitchers rumored to be available.

 

Why the Rangers? While the Rangers are playing .500 ball, it's not happening for them this year. And if they're honest with themselves, it's not happening next year either. Plus, GM Thad Levine used to work under Rangers GM Jon Daniels and they have a great relationship.

 

How does Minor fit? Well, this does give the Twins six pitchers for five spots. At its simplest, someone is going to have to move to the bullpen. I'd suggest being more creative, limiting Michael Pineda's innings and using Martin Perez in more of a swing role. I'd also find a way to get Devin Smeltzer the occasional start. Plus, Minor is under contract for another year. Controllable starting pitcher, check.

 

The cost? You skipped the previous two parts, didn't you? Minor isn't going to come cheap, unfortunately. I'm probably going to have to give up one of the prospects I don't want to. If Trevor Larnach is involved, the cost probably wouldn't be much more. But there's a chance the Twins get this done without Larnach. A package of A-ball players fits in really well with where Texas is as an organization.

 

The package(s):

Quantity: SS Wander Javier, RHP Blayne Enlow and RHP Luis Rijo for LHP Mike Minor.

 

Quality: OF Trevor Larnach and RHP Griffin Jax for LHP Mike Minor and minor-league RP CD Pelham.

 

Quick Take: Is the Stroman deal what the market is going to be? If so, maybe the Twins can get Minor for less. If not, maybe neither of these packages get it done.

 

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Acquire RP Ian Kennedy from the Kansas City Royals. Just like Minor, Kennedy is not the most appealing name. But he's been dang good as the Royals closer this year.

 

Why the Royals? If you can convince them to deal to a division rival, this is a no-brainer. Kennedy is owed over $20m through the end of next year, and the Twins are in a position to take on salary. The combination of those two things drive down the cost in terms of prospects.

 

How does Kennedy fit? Kennedy has 20 saves in 23 opportunities and has been equally as good against right- and left-handed hitters. I wouldn't "demote" Taylor Rogers, but I'd be more inclined to use Rogers in earlier high-leverage situations knowing Kennedy is more than capable of closing out games. Oh, and he continues to serve in that role through the upcoming back-to-back World Series championships. Reliever, check.

 

The cost? Money, mostly. How much the Royals send over determines the level of prospect.

 

The package:

RHP Johan Quezada for RHRP Ian Kennedy and $5 million.

 

Quick Take: The Royals pay just the rest of this year's salary (or maybe less) and in return get a flame throwing prospect who they will add to the 40-man roster this offseason. Bad teams having a closer is a luxury that the Royals are capitalizing on.

 

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Acquire OF Jarrod Dyson from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Yeah, we're doing it...

 

Why the Diamondbacks? They're setting themselves up as sellers, but maybe shouldn't be. At any rate, I want the one of the fastest runners in baseball on my team.

 

How does Dyson fit? He fits great as a fourth outfielder... on a team that doesn't really employ a fourth outfielder. If Buxton were to miss time, this is a pretty easy transition. Otherwise, he's a pinch-runner and fourth outfielder.

 

The cost? Dyson is owed $1.2m over the course of the season. Now, about that 25-man spot he's going to need.... I'm trading 2B Jonathan Schoop. With Marwin Gonzalez and Ehire Adrianza capable of being the second baseman if something were to happen to Luis Arraez.

 

The package:

2B Jonathan Schoop for OF Jarrod Dyson. (And whatever else, from either side, to make the deal work.)

 

Quick Take: The Diamondbacks have played Ketel Marte at both 2B and CF, so this move forces him to CF full time. Both Dyson and Schoop are on expiring contracts. This changes Arizona's lineup (more pop, less speed) if they want to continue going for it. Or maybe they flip Schoop.

 

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You're in charge. What are you doing?

 

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[diehardtwinsfan]

I think it's the Twins more likely to be concerned about dealing within the division than the Royals. They won't be relevant for the duration of that contract, they just want to get out of it.

[USAFChief]

From your lips keyboard to their ears eyes.

 

That would be pretty acceptable.

 

I'd love to add another reliever. Let's use the top of the minor leagues to get Felipe Vasquez from Pittsburgh. Here through 2023, if you want. Lewis for Vasquez.

[nater79a]

I like it.   Just one or two top prospects given up for Minor.   Not really that much else for Kennedy and Dyson.

 

I guess I'd prefer to get a couple more relief arms, not   just   one...  but with the prices required right now it probably ain't happening.

 

This would work.

[SwainZag]

 

I want a reliever back if they are going to move Schoop. I would like to see the Twins engage the Cubs on Kintzler or the Giants on Pomeranz for any Schoop move. Heck I would even use Schoop in any talks along with Prospects for Bumgarner.

 

 If the Twins are trying to acquire a 4th outfield I would much rather it be Hunter Pence than Kevin Dyson.

 

The Cubs bullpen could possibly be in need of arms more than ours, I highly doubt they would trade Kintzler.  

 

There is about no reason the Giants would want Schoop if they are trading Bumgarner.   A trade of Madbum means they are not competing and have basically zero use of a rental player like Schoop.

[ChrisKnutson]

From your lips keyboard to their ears eyes.

 

That would be pretty acceptable.

 

I'd love to add another reliever. Let's use the top of the minor leagues to get Felipe Vasquez from Pittsburgh. Here through 2023, if you want. Lewis for Vasquez.

 

I wouldn’t give up on Lewis yet, but I would be open to giving up a package of Larnach, Duran, and Jeffers.

[DannySD]

Before I read your post, I was thinking:

Larnach, Duran for Minor
Landon Leach for Ian Kennedy

 

I just don't know how much of an upgrade Minor is from whoever would be our #2-3 playoff starters right now (assuming Odorizzi rebounds and Pineda keeps pitching well. And if those two things don't happen, we probably aren't beating anyone anyway). 

 

If we want enough pitching to get past the Astros, Yankees and Dodgers, we'll have to trade most our top 10 prospects, and the bats will have to carry the playoff push anyway. Trading for Minor/Kennedy could make our playoff bullpen something like Rogers/Romo/Kennedy/Gibson/Perez/Harper/Duffey/Smeltzer/(Graterol?) which would give us a fighting chance and we get to keep most of our prospects. 

 

[howeda7]

At this point I pretty much agree with this. Minor, Kennedy, a LOOGY and the Dyson idea's not terrible either. Especially with Buxton...well you know.

 

My expectation is that they do nothing with "Couldn't find the right fit" "Best trades are the ones you don't make" quotes incoming. Life as a MN sports fan.

Edited July 30, 2019 by howeda7

[howeda7]

 

 

My biggest hope is that whoever the Yankees and the Astros are talking about trading for, that for once we snipe them instead of us being sniped. At some point you have to be a blocker just like they always are. We supposedly have Payroll flexibility, let's beat the Yankees and the Astros to the punch, and take what they are trying to get away.
 Those dang sneaky A's, Red Sox, and Indians, all are potential playoff opponents, whatever upgrades they are working on we need to know it, and be able to counterpunch or bear them to it.

I suspect the Astros are going to pull of MadBaum.

[Vanimal46]

I try like hell to get the Thor trade discussions back online. And be ready to offer:

 

One of Lewis/Kirilloff

One of Graterol/Balazovic

Their pick of the litter of A ball players or MLB-ready guys like Thorpe, Stewart, Poppen, etc.

[FormerMinnasotan]

Twins get-Robbie Ray

Diamondbacks get-Brusdar Graterol, Lewis Thorpe, and Nick Gordon

[AZTwin]

I try like hell to get the Thor trade discussions back online. And be ready to offer:

 

One of Lewis/Kirilloff

One of Graterol/Balazovic

Their pick of the litter of A ball players or MLB-ready guys like Thorpe, Stewart, Poppen, etc.

I don’t even want Thor. He’s overrated and the Mets are trying to dump him because of his injury concerns and the fact he’s never been able to throw 200 innings a year. Give me the pirates reliever and let the Mets keep Syndergaard

[notoriousgod71]

 

My biggest hope is that whoever the Yankees and the Astros are talking about trading for, that for once we snipe them instead of us being sniped. At some point you have to be a blocker just like they always are. We supposedly have Payroll flexibility, let's beat the Yankees and the Astros to the punch, and take what they are trying to get away.
 Those dang sneaky A's, Red Sox, and Indians, all are potential playoff opponents, whatever upgrades they are working on we need to know it, and be able to counterpunch or bear them to it.

 

The good thing is the Yankees are very rarely talking about adding Sergio Romo, Kevin Jepsen, or Matt Capps.

[mlhouse]

I don't think your package is good enough for MIke Minor for sure.  If this was his last year of his contract and he would become a free agent in the offseason, the 2nd one might be (Larnach and Griffin).  But, he still has a very manageable contract for 2020 ($9.833 million) so his trade value is much higher for the Rangers.   

 

Snydergaard is much younger has two aribitration years left before he becomes a FA so his value is even more costly.

 

I don't think MInor will be traded, at least not to the Twins because it would take at least one of Lewis or Kiriloff to make the deal.  

 

But who knows. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don’t even want Thor. He’s overrated and the Mets are trying to dump him because of his injury concerns and the fact he’s never been able to throw 200 innings a year. Give me the pirates reliever and let the Mets keep Syndergaard

 

No one throws 200 innings a year anymore. If they are trying to dump him, they are doing a very bad job.

 

The Pirates aren't trading their awesome RP that is under control for years.

[notoriousgod71]

 

 

Before I read your post, I was thinking:

Larnach, Duran for Minor
Landon Leach for Ian Kennedy

 

I just don't know how much of an upgrade Minor is from whoever would be our #2-3 playoff starters right now (assuming Odorizzi rebounds and Pineda keeps pitching well. And if those two things don't happen, we probably aren't beating anyone anyway). 

 

If we want enough pitching to get past the Astros, Yankees and Dodgers, we'll have to trade most our top 10 prospects, and the bats will have to carry the playoff push anyway. Trading for Minor/Kennedy could make our playoff bullpen something like Rogers/Romo/Kennedy/Gibson/Perez/Harper/Duffey/Smeltzer/(Graterol?) which would give us a fighting chance and we get to keep most of our prospects. 

 

For all the people (not saying your Danny SD) that love FIP as the end all be all stat for pitchers, why the Minor love? I would be very wary of a guy with limited history of success.

 

Then again, I've always been a "Go big or go home" kind of guy.

[AZTwin]

No one throws 200 innings a year anymore. If they are trying to dump him, they are doing a very bad job.

 

The Pirates aren't trading their awesome RP that is under control for years.

He barely gets above 150

[Twins33]

Not a fan of Minor, but ok with the rest

[Rigby]

 

No one throws 200 innings a year anymore. If they are trying to dump him, they are doing a very bad job.

 

The Pirates aren't trading their awesome RP that is under control for years.

Scherzer, deGrom, Kluber, Verlander, Nola, Greinke, Shields, Keuchel, Freeland, Mikolas, Cole, Porcello, Chacin, Clevinger, Price, Marquez, Hendriks & Corbin in 2018. Another 17 threw at least 180 innings.

[Mike Sixel]

18 out of how many hundred starters? Ok, no one wasn't right, but if that is an important hurdle for a pitcher, Berrios must not be good.... It's almost like there was a point....

[Rigby]

 

18 out of how many hundred starters? Ok, no one wasn't right, but if that is an important hurdle for a pitcher, Berrios must not be good.... It's almost like there was a point....

That's quite a stretch young man.

[Mike Sixel]

That's quite a stretch young man.

Which is it? 200 innings is super important to be a good pitcher, or not? Because that is the point I was refuting....

[DocBauer]

Jeremy, I think your scenarios are realistic and outstanding. I'm not sold on a 4th OF, but I completely get it. And it works if you remove Schoop from the roster equation.

 

I would say 2 changes may be in order; Rooker might be a more welcome option than Larnachm but that would be up to Texas, and I think KC would require a slightly better arm/player regardless of salary relief. They'd want someone they felt had a better percentage chance to contribute to their re-build.

 

IF...and it's a big if IMO, tne Twins could acquire a quality SP for depth and 2020, a 6 man rotation could be implemented in a couple ways.

 

A] Standard 6 man rotation, but your pen could be a little short.

B] Run a standard 5 man rotation, but rotate 2 or 3 guys in and out on a weekly basis with "bullpens" being in a game situation.

C] Similar to "B" but rotate piggybacking a game a week with a 5 IP SP and a 4 IP secondary pitcher.

 

All that being said, I would trust the rotation I have, keep my "top prospect list" as you stated and make a quality 2-3 prospect trade from everyone else available for a top RP who is controllable beyond this season. My window is open and I don't want a collection of rentals. Iglesias from the Reds really jumps out at me.

 

If I bet stymied at every turn from crazy demands, Kennedy is my fallback. And I don't mean that to demean Kennedy. I think he could be a steal.

 

Even though I love Thorpe, and think be could play a BP role to finish the year, I'd rather have him start, provide SP depth with Smeltzer, and ride the Rochester shuttle and grab Watson as a rental from the Giants.

 

In the end, I only trade approximately 4 prospects, all outside my top 6, and acquire a top RP with another season, at least, available, and a veteran LHRP to play a role. These 2, and what I have on hand, gives me a much improved pen, and 2 months to audition and play the shuttle game until the playoffs arrive and I have to set my roster. I also have Smeltzer and Thorpe providing depth in various capacities.

 

My pen is much, much better than it was, and is now much deeper with the emergence of some young arms. My milb depth is intact, as is most...if not all...of my top 10 list.

[Aerodeliria]

I think you could get Minor because of the weakness of the Rangers at the infield positions. I think if you offered something like Gordon and Valdespin + 1 lower level minor leaguer, the deal is done.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don’t even want Thor. He’s overrated and the Mets are trying to dump him because of his injury concerns and the fact he’s never been able to throw 200 innings a year. Give me the pirates reliever and let the Mets keep Syndergaard

Woof. This is 2019.

 

Last year, all of 12 pitchers threw 200+ innings. The highest topped out at 220.

 

Only 32 pitchers even threw 180 innings or more. That's basically one per team.

 

Adjust your expectations. Baseball is not the same game it was 40 years ago. Hell, it's not even close to the same game it was 20 years ago.

[BINGBONG69]

Vasquez is my number one trade target. Kirloff, Jeffers, and one of our our MLB ready young guys should be enough to get him and Kenoe Kela.

[rebldomakr]

If the twins don’t get a starting pitcher and a reliver or two today we’re basically giving the Indians their division back... Indians just got a lot better and twins haven’t done anything.. why do I get my hopes up? I’m a lifelong twins fan I know better that we don’t make deadline trades or get decent players in trades or free agency