Noah Syndergaard

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I heard they were talking about extending Wheeler, I kind of think that's a bluff to drive up his trade value though. I don't know why they'd rather have Wheeler than Syndergaard though, even with the prospect return. Wheeler is three years older, also has injury history, and will cost a boatload more to extend.

Wheeler will cost more, but given his numbers and the depression of FA salaries, it may not be that much. An Eovaldi-type contract, perhaps?

 

I agree a deadline extension seems unlikely.

Edit: maybe not even that much. A Cobb-type deal? Lynn?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Still believe they'da been better off keeping him, putting another 230 innings on his arm, and taking the picks.

In retrospect, definitely.

 

But that's the problem with a front office that is losing ground on the rest of baseball in development and scouting: you can't trust them to trade, you can't trust them to draft. The only thing you can really trust them to do is keep good players they already have and get performance out of them before they leave.

 

It wasn't as pronounced in 2008 as it was in, say, 2014 but the needle was definitely moving in that direction.

[nicksaviking]

 

Still believe they'da been better off keeping him, putting another 230 innings on his arm, and taking the picks.

 

You only say that because back then the comp picks were weighted on a complicated performance model and the Twins would have likely gotten either pick #25 or #26 in the 2009 draft. 

 

But does anyone actually remember the guy who went #26 in the 2009 draft? Probably was a nobody.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Still believe they'da been better off keeping him, putting another 230 innings on his arm, and taking the picks.

 

In retrospect, definitely.

 

 

I don't think you need retrospect to know that it was the best course of action. The Twins were already contenders, with Mauer/Morneau entering their primes. I know there's a feeling of "we can't let him walk in a year for nothing" but Johan had immense value to us in 2008. And that package from the Mets was pretty "meh" from day 1, especially for a contending team -- an interesting but raw CF who's going to have to learn on the job in MLB, a lotto ticket pitcher who is years away from anything, and a couple extremely fungible AAA arms.

 

If the 2008 season went south, we still would have been able to deal Johan at the deadline, and I can't see us getting a notably worse package than that in July -- and only 2 months away from FA, maybe Johan is less interested in an extension by then, which would open us up to more suitors and potentially an even better package.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

You only say that because back then the comp picks were weighted on a complicated performance model and the Twins would have likely gotten either pick #25 or #26 in the 2009 draft. 

 

But does anyone actually remember the guy who went #26 in the 2009 draft? Probably was a nobody.

Why does this feel like a trap

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

If it was the offseason, I'd consider Rosario, but not in the middle of a pennant race. He's too valuable to the Twins over the next couple of months to trade away.

Agreed 100%

[Puckett34]

 

You only say that because back then the comp picks were weighted on a complicated performance model and the Twins would have likely gotten either pick #25 or #26 in the 2009 draft. 

 

But does anyone actually remember the guy who went #26 in the 2009 draft? Probably was a nobody.

Not sure if sarcasm...

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't think you need retrospect to know that it was the best course of action. The Twins were already contenders, with Mauer/Morneau entering their primes. I know there's a feeling of "we can't let him walk in a year for nothing" but Johan had immense value to us in 2008. And that package from the Mets was pretty "meh" from day 1, especially for a contending team -- an interesting but raw CF who's going to have to learn on the job in MLB, a lotto ticket pitcher who is years away from anything, and a couple extremely fungible AAA arms.

 

If the 2008 season went south, we still would have been able to deal Johan at the deadline, and I can't see us getting a notably worse package than that in July -- and only 2 months away from FA, maybe Johan is less interested in an extension by then, which would open us up to more suitors and potentially an even better package.

Possibly, but if the Twins had handled Gomez better and not tried to rush his development (or just had a better handle on how he needed to develop), maybe he becomes a good player in 2010 instead of 2012 and the Twins get several years of above-average production out of him. That changes the trade dynamic considerably.

 

Either way, it's ancient history at this point. It was a bad trade, for sure.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Not sure if sarcasm...

Trout went 25th, if that's what you're implying.

[USAFChief]

 

You only say that because back then the comp picks were weighted on a complicated performance model and the Twins would have likely gotten either pick #25 or #26 in the 2009 draft. 

 

But does anyone actually remember the guy who went #26 in the 2009 draft? Probably was a nobody.

#26 is what we would have gotten, no doubt in my mind. 

[Puckett34]

 

Trout went 25th, if that's what you're implying.

Bingo

[gunnarthor]

I wonder how the Mets, and other teams, view Arreaz. He was a bit of a prospect after thought going into the season but now he might have value similar to a backend 100 type? More? 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I wonder how the Mets, and other teams, view Arreaz. He was a bit of a prospect after thought going into the season but now he might have value similar to a backend 100 type? More? 

Depends if you're scouting a line or the player.

 

If you're scouting a line, he's a backend 100 player. If you're scouting the actual player (ie. watching him play), he's much higher than that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Possibly, but if the Twins had handled Gomez better and not tried to rush his development (or just had a better handle on how he needed to develop), maybe he becomes a good player in 2010 instead of 2012 and the Twins get several years of above-average production out of him. That changes the trade dynamic considerably.

 

Either way, it's ancient history at this point. It was a bad trade, for sure.

Not counting on the trade to produce good results in MLB until 2010 is what makes it a bad trade. We needed Johan in 2008, and we'd still have 2 years to find a long-term alternative in the outfield other than Gomez (and in fact, we had a pretty good alternative under our nose already in Span).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I wonder how the Mets, and other teams, view Arreaz. He was a bit of a prospect after thought going into the season but now he might have value similar to a backend 100 type? More? 

The Mets are limited in their valuation of Arraez a bit by their current roster. They've got a top prospect installed at SS, and an unmovable contract at 2B (blocked from moving to 1B by Alonso). I guess 3B should open up with Frazier being a pending FA, but they also have Lowrie under contract for 2020, plus McNeil capable of playing third (and JD Davis capable of standing near third with a glove).

 

Not that Arraez couldn't have value to the Mets, but they wouldn't be able to assign/capture his full value.

[dbminn]

Let's go big - 

 

Twins get: Syndergaard (2.5 yrs), Lugo (3.5) and Diaz (3.5)

Mets get: Sano (2.5 yrs), Duran/Balazovic, Littell, Jeffers, Gordon, JDavis.

 

Mets need C, 3B, MI, CF and P. Twins don't have a CF to offer in the high minors but they hit the other points. Twins might need to add another decent SP to make the deal. Colina or Rijo? Romero?

 

Sano still has a ton of upside but a significant injury history and the Twins have HR power to spare. The Mets get an immediate visible return to placate their remaining fans, a rising SP prospect and a possible long-term solution at C. Gordon and Littell modestly fill needs and Davis is a great gamble at this point.

[gunnarthor]

The other elephant in the room is payroll. The Pohlads are cheap and have never shown a willingness to spend to support a playoff caliber core. Buxton, Berrios, Rosario, Rogers and Sano are going to get really expensive. 

 

Our current core is going to get very expensive as they go through arbitration. B-R estimates the arb salaries the next few years alone will be:

 

2020 - 50m

2021 - 70m

2022 - 100m

 

Thor would add a lot to those totals in 2020 and 2021.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/minnesota-twins-salaries-and-contracts.shtml

 

 

 

[crapforks]

The Mets are limited in their valuation of Arraez a bit by their current roster. They've got a top prospect installed at SS, and an unmovable contract at 2B (blocked from moving to 1B by Alonso). I guess 3B should open up with Frazier being a pending FA, but they also have Lowrie under contract for 2020, plus McNeil capable of playing third (and JD Davis capable of standing near third with a glove).

 

Not that Arraez couldn't have value to the Mets, but they wouldn't be able to assign/capture his full value.

That’s useful analysis! Every team needs pitching, so including well-regarded pitching is a given. Do the Mets have a tighter than average 40-man crunch upcoming? One of Lerwis/Kirilloff, one of Graterol/Blazovic, and two other prospects should get their attention. It would be nice to send out some 40-man decision cases if the Twins had to include more.

[nicksaviking]

 

Trout went 25th, if that's what you're implying.

 

Dang, just missed 'em.

[USAFChief]

 

Dang, just missed 'em.

Think of the TD threads we missed!!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Shocked! shocked I say!

 

 

"Twins interested in Noah Syndergaard, but Mets' asking price high" LEN3

http://www.startribune.com/twins-interested-in-noah-syndergaard-but-mets-asking-price-high/513224672/?refresh=true

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Let's go big - 

 

Twins get: Syndergaard (2.5 yrs), Lugo (3.5) and Diaz (3.5)

Mets get: Sano (2.5 yrs), Duran/Balazovic, Littell, Jeffers, Gordon, JDavis.

 

Mets need C, 3B, MI, CF and P. Twins don't have a CF to offer in the high minors but they hit the other points. Twins might need to add another decent SP to make the deal. Colina or Rijo? Romero?

 

Sano still has a ton of upside but a significant injury history and the Twins have HR power to spare. The Mets get an immediate visible return to placate their remaining fans, a rising SP prospect and a possible long-term solution at C. Gordon and Littell modestly fill needs and Davis is a great gamble at this point.

I don't think that works. Even if the Mets like Sano at 3B, he's only got 2 years of control left. (Yes, so does Syndergaard, but the idea behind a Syndergaard trade would be to get an elite player controlled beyond 2 years, not just do an exchange.)

 

I know baseballtradevalues.com isn't gospel and is certainly open to debate, but the spread of this trade might be too wide to ignore: 147.8 from the Mets, 44.4 from the Twins.

 

By the time you could tweak this proposal to make it work, it's probably no longer worth it for the Twins to sacrifice Sano anymore either. Especially if he's good enough that the Mets would want him!

[alarp33]

 

Let's go big - 

 

Twins get: Syndergaard (2.5 yrs), Lugo (3.5) and Diaz (3.5)

Mets get: Sano (2.5 yrs), Duran/Balazovic, Littell, Jeffers, Gordon, JDavis.

 

Mets need C, 3B, MI, CF and P. Twins don't have a CF to offer in the high minors but they hit the other points. Twins might need to add another decent SP to make the deal. Colina or Rijo? Romero?

 

Sano still has a ton of upside but a significant injury history and the Twins have HR power to spare. The Mets get an immediate visible return to placate their remaining fans, a rising SP prospect and a possible long-term solution at C. Gordon and Littell modestly fill needs and Davis is a great gamble at this point.

 

LOL. You should add in Stephen Gonsalves to really sweeten the pot. I don't think your proposed trade gets you even Syndergaard, let alone Lugo and Diaz

[nicksaviking]

 

Trout went 25th, if that's what you're implying.

 

Yeah, without the sarcasm, that compensation formula seemed a bit flawed and it was based on the prior two years worth of performances. I can't find it any longer, but it had a bunch or random variables, I remember writing up something big and ugly about it long ago. Anyway, Teixeira and Santana would have without a doubt been the top two free agents the year prior to the draft and I recall the weighted formula had a very slight edge to Teixeira, however, the formula gave points to Gold Glove winners, something Santana got the year prior in the AL but had no chance of getting in the NL as it was an annual award given to Greg Maddox at that point. So it would have been close as to which player would have earned their former team the #25 pick had Santana stayed in the AL with the Twins. But who knows, maybe Santana blows out his knee and doesn't even get offered arbitration let alone net a comp pick if he stayed.

 

But the fact that the formula favored Francisco Rodriguez and Orlando Hudson over both of those two should have been a red flag that the system was not great.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If you believe LEN3, the Mets presently want BOTH Lewis and Kiriloff. Not something I would do for Syndergaard. Now for Syndergaard and Seth Lugo, even throwing in a Duran or Larnach? Hmmmm......

FWIW, Lewis and Kirilloff together are enough to get both Syndergaard and Lugo, per baseballtradevalues.com

[big dog]

 

#26 is what we would have gotten, no doubt in my mind. 

The seven compensation picks after Mike Trout were:

Eric Arnett

Nick Franklin

Reymond Fuentes

Slade Heathcott

LeVon Washington

Brett Jackson

Tim Wheeler

 

So that would have been a bad trade even if we had gotten all seven.

[SwainZag]

 

Let's go big - 

 

Twins get: Syndergaard (2.5 yrs), Lugo (3.5) and Diaz (3.5)

Mets get: Sano (2.5 yrs), Duran/Balazovic, Littell, Jeffers, Gordon, JDavis.

 

Mets need C, 3B, MI, CF and P. Twins don't have a CF to offer in the high minors but they hit the other points. Twins might need to add another decent SP to make the deal. Colina or Rijo? Romero?

 

Sano still has a ton of upside but a significant injury history and the Twins have HR power to spare. The Mets get an immediate visible return to placate their remaining fans, a rising SP prospect and a possible long-term solution at C. Gordon and Littell modestly fill needs and Davis is a great gamble at this point.

 

Sano just has too much upside for me to trade him at age 26.  Stick to prospects.  Cruz is 39, Cron has 1 year left, Schoop is gone after this year.  The HR power to spare shouldn't only be for this year.  Sano should be an offensive core piece with Buck, Kepler, Polanco and Rosario if they choose to extend him.  Just my two cents.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Interesting. Would you make that deal? Much as I like both Lewis and Kiriloff, Kiriloff especially, I'd be very tempted to pull the trigger on Syndegaard and Lugo for Lewis and Kiriloff. I'd throw in 2 decent prospects like Gordon and Smeltzer or Poppen (not Thorpe) if they would add Diaz. 

Yikes, that's quite a prospect haul to leave at once.

 

With that said, I don't say no immediately.

[alarp33]

 

FWIW, Lewis and Kirilloff together are enough to get both Syndergaard and Lugo, per baseballtradevalues.com

 

I'd pass. I think you could keep one of the 2, and still get Syndergaard and a reliever (from a different team) as dependable as Lugo

[gunnarthor]

 

I'd pass. I think you could keep one of the 2, and still get Syndergaard and a reliever (from a different team) as dependable as Lugo

I was going to say the exact same thing.