Article: 2019 Twins Midseason Top Prospect List: 11-15

markos · June 28, 2019

Arraez is such a tough player to try to project right now because his initial performance has been so crazy. The .457 BABIP, the 3:1 K:BB ratio, leading the league in LD% and opposite-field %, 2nd lowest pull %. He is the 6th biggest overachiever when comparing his actual results to his expected results from his statcast exit velocity and launch angle information.

This is not completely unlike Jake Cave last year, who was also a pretty extreme outlier in many batted-ball statistics.

Dman · June 28, 2019

Check the Board for updates. They moved Arreaz to sixth, and maybe trending up from there.

I am a little surprised that fangraphs would put a pretty much strictly singles hitter that doesn't seem to get hard contact and no other above average tools to 6th on the list. That seems out of character for them. They must be believers that he can carry that approach all the way through MLB. Personally I see him dropping off but maybe he is just that good. I guess we'll know soon enough.

And Gordon at 35? Have they really given up on him? They don't see much more growth potential there for a 23 year old with a 280 average and 25% K rate at AAA? So that is his ceiling? that is quite a statement?

Edited June 28, 2019 by Dman

dougd · June 28, 2019

Keanan Lamb's review of the Florida State All-Star game in BPro had this to say about Jeffers, in part:

With a large frame that’s an excellent target for pitchers, apt receiving abilities and above-average arm, he is the rare catching prospect that blends both offensive and defensive upside. Positionally speaking, he should be considered as one of the top ten catching prospects in the minors with a continued strong 2019 campaign.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/50909/notes-from-the-field-the-florida-state-league-all-star-game/

SarasotaBill · June 28, 2019

Looked at the minor league statistics of Cave and Arraez.

Cave has been .270 and 3:1 K:BB while Arraez is .330 and 1:1.

Arraez K:BB ratio is similar to Mauer's ratio in the minors.

Not saying he's as good. Just saying the K:BB is at an elite level and with a very high average.

nater79a · June 28, 2019

Arraez is definitely the type of prospect who is going to cause some disagreement.

This is what happens when a guy has a really good hit tool. This is the only one in my opinion that can carry guys to the big leagues on its own, but you also can't forget the other four.

I'll echo Tom in saying Luis looks in great shape this year, and there might just be an average 2B defender in there now. Might be.

Gordon has better power, speed, arm, and fielding tools. I think he can be an average MLB hitter too. That's going to put you higher in rankings for me.

What I'm waiting for on Arraez, is how he adapts when teams start doing nothing but busting him with inside pitches. Because if you hadn't noticed yet or didn't know, Arraez has extreme opposite field tendencies, and though he makes contact on anything, he also doesn't hit anything overly hard. Is very consistent, but he's not going to "barrel" many either, it's just not in his swing's nature.

As a cautionary tale, also look at how an #OldFriend with a similar hitting profile, with speed and fielding prowess, is doing these days in Ben Revere.

All this said, never doubt that a player like him can overachieve the perception from rankings such as these, but that's not what the list is doing.

This is so true. If you can't hit, you better have a multiple combination of strong throwing arm, speed or defensive chops. One of those alone is not going to cut it.

Wish I could remember who said "If you can hit, they'll find a position for you".

Thought it was someone fairly famous, but maybe it was just some random scout.

mikelink45 · June 28, 2019

Arraez is such a tough player to try to project right now because his initial performance has been so crazy. The .457 BABIP, the 3:1 K:BB ratio, leading the league in LD% and opposite-field %, 2nd lowest pull %. He is the 6th biggest overachiever when comparing his actual results to his expected results from his statcast exit velocity and launch angle information.

This is not completely unlike Jake Cave last year, who was also a pretty extreme outlier in many batted-ball statistics.

What would our discussion have been at this stage in Tony Gwyn's career?

TRex · June 29, 2019

What would our discussion have been at this stage in Tony Gwyn's career?

...the 4-time gold glove winner who had 155 stolen bases through age 27, or the other one?

Sorry, you may have been talking about batted ball statistics and not the 'one tool' discussion.

Edited June 29, 2019 by TRex

AlwaysinModeration · June 29, 2019

I just looked over Gordon and Arraez minor league stats. It seems pretty clear that Arraez is the better bet now and going forward. He may be slower, worse defensively, have a weaker arm, and maybe have a bit less power. However, Arraez hits for a great average, has a great eye (seriously, elite K:BB rates, that may actually get better), and is 1.5 years younger than Gordon. He missed essentially all of 2017–otherwise, I think he would have been much higher on lists going forward. He doesn’t hit for much power, but I think he may improve in that regard as he gets into his mid-20s.

Gordon has his #5 pick and family pedigree going for him, and I think that has helped his rankings. I understand tools are important for young players, but I just think Arraez can REALLY hit, and as they say, “the bat plays.” The Twins have really got someone who can really potentially be special.

By the way, is it just me, or is it kind of grating to hear Bremer (and Bert, to a bit lesser degree) pronounce Arraez’ name every at bat? Instead of making it sounds like “arise” I think he should try to make it a three syllable word, using an “s” sound instead of a “z” (and forget about trying to add in the rolled r, it’s not worth it). Using Torreyes as the starting point may help mentally to think of how to pronounce it. If it was spelled Arayes, I think the announcers would have an easier time with it.

Edited June 29, 2019 by AlwaysinModeration

Mr. Brooks · June 29, 2019

I just looked over Gordon and Arraez minor league stats. It seems pretty clear that Arraez is the better bet now and going forward. He may be slower, worse defensively, have a weaker arm, and maybe have a bit less power. However, Arraez hits for a great average, has a great eye (seriously, elite K:BB rates, that may actually get better), and is 1.5 years younger than Gordon. He missed essentially all of 2017–otherwise, I think he would have been much higher on lists going forward. He doesn’t hit for much power, but I think he may improve in that regard as he gets into his mid-20s.

Gordon has his #5 pick and family pedigree going for him, and I think that has helped his rankings. I understand tools are important for young players, but I just think Arraez can REALLY hit, and as they say, “the bat plays.” The Twins have really got someone who can really potentially be special.

By the way, is it just me, or is it kind of grating to hear Bremer (and Bert, to a bit lesser degree) pronounce Arraez’ name every at bat? Instead of making it sounds like “arise” I think he should try to make it a three syllable word, using an “s” sound instead of a “z” (and forget about trying to add in the rolled r, it’s not worth it). Using Torreyes as the starting point may help mentally to think of how to pronounce it. If it was spelled Arayes, I think the announcers would have an easier time with it.

According to baseball reference, dick n bert are pronouncing it correctly, not you.

They have it as "ah-RIZE".

jkcarew · June 29, 2019

When Arraez’s BABiP normalizes...and it will normalize a lot...we’ll probably have a high BA major leaguer with almost zero power, average on the bases, and adequate defense at second. So kind of high floor, low ceiling at this point. The challenge will be that I think he would have more value as a Escobar/Gonzalez/Adrianza type long term, but don’t see that level of defensive skill. He’s 22, and in the majors...I’d have him ranked a little higher.

AlwaysinModeration · June 29, 2019

According to baseball reference, dick n bert are pronouncing it correctly, not you.
They have it as "ah-RIZE".

This is how to pronounce it, obviously:

https://mobile.twitter.com/morsecode/status/1131316768750727168

However, like I said, skip the rolled r. The ae combination is Spanish is pronounced ah-ay, and the z is usually pronounced as a “ess” sound or at least a softer z.

I think the best way to phonetically learn how to pronounce it, for a non-native speaker (which I am not), is:

ah—RAH—ess.

Thrylos · June 29, 2019

When Arraez’s BABiP normalizes...and it will normalize a lot...we’ll probably have a high BA major leaguer with almost zero power, average on the bases, and adequate defense at second. So kind of high floor, low ceiling at this point.

Interesting.

Math:

Arraez's BABIP right now is .449. He is hitting .442/.524/.558 His career BABIP has been around .360. That is .090 points higher.

If you think that it will normalize to that and subtract it from this slash line, you got .353/.435/.449, which is better than Rod Carew's (to pick on your username) career .328/.393/.429. Do you call that low ceiling? I'd take that every day.

Thrylos · June 29, 2019

I just hope that other teams have Gordon ranked that high. He might help bring some badly needed pitching for the Twins.

Mr. Brooks · June 29, 2019

Interesting.

Math:

Arraez's BABIP right now is .449. He is hitting .442/.524/.558 His career BABIP has been around .360. That is .090 points higher.

If you think that it will normalize to that and subtract it from this slash line, you got .353/.435/.449, which is better than Rod Carew's (to pick on your username) career .328/.393/.429. Do you call that low ceiling? I'd take that every day.

I'd have to see how milb babip historically translates to mlb babip. Without looking, I'd imagine there is a pretty consistent dropoff, due to facing better pitching, defense, and field conditions.

jkcarew · June 29, 2019

Interesting.

Math:

Arraez's BABIP right now is .449. He is hitting .442/.524/.558 His career BABIP has been around .360. That is .090 points higher.

If you think that it will normalize to that and subtract it from this slash line, you got .353/.435/.449, which is better than Rod Carew's (to pick on your username) career .328/.393/.429. Do you call that low ceiling? I'd take that every day.

I’d call that an unrealistic ceiling.

Thrylos · June 29, 2019

I'd have to see how milb babip historically translates to mlb babip. Without looking, I'd imagine there is a pretty consistent dropoff, due to facing better pitching, defense, and field conditions.

On the other hand, a major leaguer is closer to his prime than a minor leaguer so you assume that he will improve as a player. Have to compare similar players. Someone like Polanco for example, has has BABIP around .345 each of the past season. In the minors his average BABIP was .330. Pretty much in the ballpark.

Kepler's BABIP decreased by 50 points or so in the majors, but he is a different player now, hitting homers instead of doubles (and homers are subtracted in the BABIP calculation, since they are not in play.) It is typical for power hitters to have lower BABIP than non-power hitters. I am not sure that Arraez will have that problem

DocBauer · June 30, 2019

SO much about this debate on Arraez and Gordon I like and find interesting. And I think both sides of the aisle here are smart with their opinions. And let us not forget, at least in regard to the TD rankings here in the OP, we are talking a neck and neck debate.

Things change. The fortunes of young prospects change. Sticking only with infield comparisons, it was not so long ago Polanco was questionable for various reasons, offensively and especially defensively. Now, I am NOT opening up a debate/ perspective on Polanco, just using him as an example.

NOBODY can seriously debate that Arreaz has a better hit tool than Gordon. At the very least, at this point in their careers. But scouts and prospect rankings are based on tools and potential. I am no expert, to be sure. But we are talking about one guy who has more speed, more overall athleticism, SS potential/ability, and what scouts see as more pop/power than a hit machine prosoect. Those reports and observations are real. Now, it doesn't mean Gordon WILL BE the better player. It only means his tools equate to a potentially better overall player.

BOTH of these guys have slight frames and need to add muscle. BOTH can. BOTH can work on arm strength and hands and positioning to make them better defensively.

Right now, today, health and hit tool has Arreaz with the Twins. And I am thrilled by what I see thus far in SSS. But with a good start to 2018, in case you forgot, Gordon might have been brought up before Arreaz if he hadn't made a trip to the IL. This conversation may be entirely different had said injury not happened. It is a very real possibility we would be talking about Gordon as our 2B next season and Arreaz as trade bait.

I am reminded of Jay Bell, a couple decades ago, who seemed to disappoint before being traded and carved out a very nice career as a 2B/SS elsewhere. Gordon could flop! He may never hit as well as Arraez, and I'd bet he won't. But by next season, he could be better defensively, and even more versatile/valuable as a result, with more speed and just as much pop/power or more.

To be clear, I like both kids a lot. Would be nice to keep both, but guessing one will be gone soon. But long term, debating one is clearly a superior prospect over the other at this time is a bit of a fools errand. I just hope whichever one stays is the right choice by the FO.

diehardtwinsfan · June 30, 2019

with Gordon, I'd just like to see him finish a season strong. He's started a bunch strong, but gets into a funk and never gets out. Not sure if that's a conditioning thing, mental thing, or something else.

Given he's a 40 man guy, I do think he's one of the ones likely to be traded next month for help. I'm fine with that, as we have a plethora of middle infield type guys and one in the majors who isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

Steve Lein · July 1, 2019

Check the Board for updates. They moved Arreaz to sixth, and maybe trending up from there.

I've been trying to find where you see him at #6 too. The BOARD still has him at 12.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-prospect-list?sort=4,-1&pageitems=10000000000000&pagenum=0&team=min

108Stitches · July 1, 2019

Arraez is younger than Gordon.
Gordon may not stay at SS.
Arraez is a much better hitter.

Watching Arraez take an at-bat is like looking at art.

Gordon is rated higher here only because he was the 5th pick of the draft.

Enough said.

Remember, most of these are about what they THINK a guy should do and what he ACTUALLY does isn’t given nearly as much weight. Hence why Alcala is in the top 20 with nearly a 6 era in his entire time in this .org. It doesn’t matter who has more tools, it matters who is getting the job done. Maybe it’s just me.

Mike Sixel · July 1, 2019

I've been trying to find where you see him at #6 too. The BOARD still has him at 12.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-prospect-list?sort=4,-1&pageitems=10000000000000&pagenum=0&team=min

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-list?sort=-1,1&team=min

I see him at 6th there right now.....

Steve Lein · July 1, 2019

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-list?sort=-1,1&team=min

I see him at 6th there right now.....

Weird. Thanks for that link. Not sure how they have two versions of it you can get to, hah!

Mike Sixel · July 1, 2019

Weird. Thanks for that link. Not sure how they have two versions of it you can get to, hah!

that is odd.....

Mr. Brooks · July 1, 2019

Remember, most of these are about what they THINK a guy should do and what he ACTUALLY does isn’t given nearly as much weight. Hence why Alcala is in the top 20 with nearly a 6 era in his entire time in this .org. It doesn’t matter who has more tools, it matters who is getting the job done. Maybe it’s just me.

Well tools matter too. I mean, that's what the minor leagues are for,development of tools.

Once they get to mlb, then results matter much more than tools. Though, even at mlb guys can continue to develop. Some on this board wanted Kepler to be the 4th outfielder this year, behind Cave, because they were looking at results only, without recognizing that Kepler had tools that had the potential for a breakout.

gbg · July 2, 2019

Mike Sixel, on 01 Jul 2019 - 11:47 AM, said:

https://www.fangraph...t=-1,1&team=min

I see him at 6th there right now.....

Weird. Thanks for that link. Not sure how they have two versions of it you can get to, hah!

that is odd.....

The first link is their pre-season 2019 list. The second is their "Updated 2019" list, which does have him jumping way up.

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