Marwin Gonzalez

[stringer bell]

Today marks the last day that the Twins get to beat up on the Baltimore Orioles. Right now, the team is riding high with the top OPS and slugging percentage in MLB. On the position player side, there has been only one disappointment and that is the subject of this thread--Marwin Gonzalez.

 

Let's face it, Gonzalez has been poor at the plate. He's hitting .164 and his OPS (.488) is lower than the team's slugging percentage.Talk in the game threads on this site is to trade him, release him, bat him ninth or bench him. I don't see any statistic (advanced or otherwise) that suggests that Marwin has been particularly unlucky. Yet Gonzalez has been a regular with almost 80 plate appearances in the first 24 games. 

 

I liked the signing when the Twins acquired Marwin and I still do. I think that Baldelli is correct in going with him as the principal third baseman and I think his offensive performance will improve. Gonzalez started slowly last year and ended up with a 102 OPS+ for the season. It is early yet, there are 138 games yet to be played. If Marwin were to go 5-5 today with a double and a homer (for instance), his numbers would look OK, that is the way the early season works. Other veteran players have had lousy starts and came back to have good seasons. As a switch-hitter, Gonzalez offers some balance to the lineup and with everyone else raking, the team can afford to be patient. 

 

On the other hand, we're not talking about Trout or Altuve here. Gonzalez is a good player with a lifetime OPS+ of 101, enhanced by a career year two years ago. His biggest asset has been his versatility, with the ability to be plugged in almost anywhere and hit and field competently. I don't think the leash should be too long and the Twins do have a third baseman working back from injury right now. 

 

Baseball Reference (and my eyes) say that Gonzalez has been good at third base so far this year. When Sano returns, he can be freed to be the guy who starts almost any place and is a solid veteran and a threat at the plate. It can't hurt to have quality depth in a long season and I think Marwin Gonzalez will provide that depth and versatility for the Twins has he did for the Astros.

[MMMordabito]

I just wish one of the reporters would directly ask Baldelli after a game ... "Do you think Marwin Gonzalez is taking good at-bats?  

[drivlikejehu]

If you don't see any statistic showing Gonzalez as being unlucky, you didn't look at all. His BABIP is .192 compared to a career average of .306.

 

His plate discipline has regressed a bit . . . he's definitely had a subpar stretch at the plate. But at this point, odds are that he's the same MLB-average hitter that he was expected to be.

[Mr. Brooks]

If you don't see any statistic showing Gonzalez as being unlucky, you didn't look at all. His BABIP is .192 compared to a career average of .306.

 

His plate discipline has regressed a bit . . . he's definitely had a subpar stretch at the plate. But at this point, odds are that he's the same MLB-average hitter that he was expected to be.

Part (but not all) of that babip drop is because his line drive % is way down, and his groundball % is way up.

[jorgenswest]

Part (but not all) of that babip drop is because his line drive % is way down, and his groundball % is way up.

Line drive rate stabilizes at 600 balls in play which is about 218 games started.

[Mr. Brooks]

Line drive rate stabilizes at 600 balls in play which is about 218 games started.

Do you have a link for that? I'm skeptical that it would take that many balls in play for ld% to stabilize.

[jorgenswest]

Do you have a link for that? I'm skeptical that it would take that many balls in play for ld% to stabilize.

https://www.freezestats.com/2019/04/looking-at-sample-sizes-for-fantasy-baseball/

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/17659/baseball-therapy-its-a-small-sample-size-after-all/

[Mr. Brooks]

https://www.freezestats.com/2019/04/looking-at-sample-sizes-for-fantasy-baseball/

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/17659/baseball-therapy-its-a-small-sample-size-after-all/

Thanks for that.

But, I can't help but notice this passage:

 

"What the stabilizing point means is that a player is likely to repeat his performance if his skills remain exactly the same. It is not a predictor of future performance. A player who changes his approach or gains/loses skills renders the previous sample size data to be somewhat meaningless."

 

So, the lower LD% could be because it hasn't stabilized yet.

But, it could also be because his skills have declined.

 

Do we want to give him 800 AB's at this level of performance to find out which one it is?

[cardsfan]

A utility type should have been developed in the minors. $20 million.

[AZTwin]

A utility type should have been developed in the minors. $20 million.

Imagine how many years of Nick Punto we could have gotten for that price

[jorgenswest]

Thanks for that.

But, I can't help but notice this passage:

"What the stabilizing point means is that a player is likely to repeat his performance if his skills remain exactly the same. It is not a predictor of future performance. A player who changes his approach or gains/loses skills renders the previous sample size data to be somewhat meaningless."

So, the lower LD% could be because it hasn't stabilized yet.

But, it could also be because his skills have declined.

Do we want to give him 800 AB's at this level of performance to find out which one it is?

Of course not, line drive percentage is useless for an indicator of performance. There are better indicators that need a small sample like exit velocity.

[Blake]

Right now, the team can afford to have a bat like Marwin's. However, once the team cools off, and if Marwin's bat remains a liability, then it will be time to look for a solution.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

With the Twins utilizing shifts more than ever (I think), wouldn't that     result in the need for a better fielding third baseman, with good range and good hands and arm, because of where the third baseman is positioned in   various shifts? I submit  that Gonzales has more range than Sano and is a better overall fielder than Sano. If Sano is handed 3B upon his return, how will that affect the Twins' use of shifts?

[Nine of twelve]

Agree that Sano almost certainly has less range than Gonzalez but he has a cannon, so if the shifts are well planned and he's positioned optimally he should be able to throw out more batter-runners than just about anyone.

[old nurse]

 

With the Twins utilizing shifts more than ever (I think), wouldn't that     result in the need for a better fielding third baseman, with good range and good hands and arm, because of where the third baseman is positioned in   various shifts? I submit  that Gonzales has more range than Sano and is a better overall fielder than Sano. If Sano is handed 3B upon his return, how will that affect the Twins' use of shifts?

If the shift is working the ball is going to where Sano aint, the other side of the field.

[gil4]

 

Imagine how many years of Nick Punto we could have gotten for that price

His last contract with the Twins was 2yr/$8M (B-R converts it to $4.6M/yr in 2019 $$). So for 20M, we could have has 4 - 5 yrs from a career 76 OPS+ hitter.  The two years we paid $4M each for had OPS+ of 68 and 71.  

[Shaitan]

They kept saying Morrison would right the ship last year too. Or, in years past, I heard that constantly about Rondell White.

 

But Marwin is different. He was signed as depth instead of as a savior free agent. He'll get fewer AB when Sano returns. Crisis averted. If he gets hot, they'll get him in the lineup when it happens.

[Seth Stohs]

 

They kept saying Morrison would right the ship last year too. Or, in years past, I heard that constantly about Rondell White.

 

But Marwin is different. He was signed as depth instead of as a savior free agent. He'll get fewer AB when Sano returns. Crisis averted. If he gets hot, they'll get him in the lineup when it happens.

 

If Morrison or White would have been healthy, their numbers probably would have been in line with their career numbers. Likewise, when Gonzalez gets to 400-500 plate appearances at the end of the season, his OPS will be in that .670-.730 range like it has been four of the last five years. The .900 OPS season was the outlier, we assume. But he's also not going to stay at .450 OPS either (I assume, and again, if healthy). 

[ChrisKnutson]

Honestly, I wouldn’t be suprised if this situation plays out like it did for Carlos Santana, where he left his longtime team (Indians) for another (Phillies) only to eventually end up being traded back the following season...

[ScrapTheNickname]

If Morrison or White would have been healthy, their numbers probably would have been in line with their career numbers. Likewise, when Gonzalez gets to 400-500 plate appearances at the end of the season, his OPS will be in that .670-.730 range like it has been four of the last five years. The .900 OPS season was the outlier, we assume. But he's also not going to stay at .450 OPS either (I assume, and again, if healthy).

I believe Logan Morrison was healthy during his time with the Twins.

He injured his hip in mid-August.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Agree that Sano almost certainly has less range than Gonzalez but he has a cannon, so if the shifts are well planned and he's positioned optimally he should be able to throw out more batter-runners than just about anyone.

Third base shifts don't sent players into the stands.

 

In a shift, the throw is shorter, not longer.

[yarnivek1972]

If Morrison or White would have been healthy, their numbers probably would have been in line with their career numbers. Likewise, when Gonzalez gets to 400-500 plate appearances at the end of the season, his OPS will be in that .670-.730 range like it has been four of the last five years. The .900 OPS season was the outlier, we assume. But he's also not going to stay at .450 OPS either (I assume, and again, if healthy).

How do we know Gonzalez isn’t hiding an injury? As Morridon supposedly was.

[Mr. Brooks]

If Morrison or White would have been healthy, their numbers probably would have been in line with their career numbers. Likewise, when Gonzalez gets to 400-500 plate appearances at the end of the season, his OPS will be in that .670-.730 range like it has been four of the last five years. The .900 OPS season was the outlier, we assume. But he's also not going to stay at .450 OPS either (I assume, and again, if healthy).

.670 isn't going to be good enough, IMO.

We should be able to develop a utility player that can OPS .670.

As a matter of fact, we developed one that can OPS .730, and we let him go to Detroit.

 

For $10.5M per year, he'd better at least be able to top Goodrum's production.

[Seth Stohs]

 

How do we know Gonzalez isn’t hiding an injury? As Morridon supposedly was.

 

We don't... 

But there's no reason to assume that until there is a reason. I mean, the swing looks good, strong. He looks really solid at third base. But, the shoulder was an issue in spring training and it is possible that could affect the swing. 

[stringer bell]

 

If Morrison or White would have been healthy, their numbers probably would have been in line with their career numbers. Likewise, when Gonzalez gets to 400-500 plate appearances at the end of the season, his OPS will be in that .670-.730 range like it has been four of the last five years. The .900 OPS season was the outlier, we assume. But he's also not going to stay at .450 OPS either (I assume, and again, if healthy). 

OK, let's pick nits. Marwin Gonzalez' worst OPS year where he exceeded 250 plate appearances was 2016, when he had an OPS of .694, his lifetime OPS is .731 and last yer's number was .733. We can probably agree that Gonzalez had a career year in 2017, but his stats in the other years since 2014 indicate he is a slightly above average offensive player, with defensive skill and flexibility. He just turned 30, so he's probably in the second half of his career, but he's not at an age where players usually fall off a cliff.

[David HK]

 

Imagine how many years of Nick Punto we could have gotten for that price

Can we still?  

 

What's he up to?

[nicksaviking]

I think Gonzalez's track record shows how extremely streaky he is. I liked the signing for his versatility but not for his bat. It will be nice when he's able to go back to a super-utility role; maybe that in itself will help him get back on track.

[gil4]

 

I believe Logan Morrison was healthy during his time with the Twins.
He injured his hip in mid-August.

I think it came out at the time that he had been dealing with the hip issue most of the season.

[Doomtints]

 

I think it came out at the time that he had been dealing with the hip issue most of the season.

 

Morrison had one notable year in his career and it was a given there would be some excuse near the end of the season as to why he regressed.

 

You can't hide hip pain. Every time you turn your body, it hurts. Was Morrison's run speed slower last year? Did his swing look different? Did he look strange when he bent over to pick up a bat or a ball? Did he grimace when sitting down or standing up? Did he avoid pregame stretching exercises because they were too painful? I think the answer to all of this stuff is no.

[ScrapTheNickname]

Morrison had one notable year in his career and it was a given there would be some excuse near the end of the season as to why he regressed.

 

You can't hide hip pain. Every time you turn your body, it hurts. Was Morrison's run speed slower last year? Did his swing look different? Did he look strange when he bent over to pick up a bat or a ball? Did he grimace when sitting down or standing up? Did he avoid pregame stretching exercises because they were too painful? I think the answer to all of this stuff is no.

I appear to agree with you.