Miller: Time is Now for Buxton/Sano

[Seth Stohs]

http://www.startribune.com/the-time-is-now-for-twins-miguel-sano-byron-buxton/506277202/

 

It's been a topic all offseason. Often Thad Levine and Derek Falvey, media and bloggers have really emphasized how important 2019 is for Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton. Statements like "We'll go as far as Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano take us" and similar have been uttered frequently. 

 

Phil Miller from the Star-Tribune penned the article on that topic.

 

 

But now? “2019 is going to be a defining season for both these guys. They’re at a crossroads in their careers,” Twins General Manager Thad Levine said. “We believe they are going to vault forward, and we want to do everything we can to help them.”

 

There is a lot about the trips to Georgie and the Dominican which left both players excited and motivated:

 

 

Buxton wasn’t just impressed, he was motivated.“He was very direct. He put me at ease — ‘Just play your game, give 100 percent and you’ll be fine.’ He made me realize how important I can be to this team’s success,” Buxton said. “When he left, I was wishing spring training would start the next day. He kind of pumped me up to get things going.”

 

[nytwinsfan]

It is obviously impossible to tell much about a manager from just his first couple pre-season meetings with key players, but I really like Rocco's style and attitude and I think it will be better for the younger guys -- especially Buxton. Buxton seems like a guy who is tough on himself and very demanding. That can lead to trying too hard each at bat and not being patient and staying within his game over the medium to long run. 

[Vanimal46]

I don't like the fact management has placed the entire burden of the organization on the shoulders of 2 players, but here we are. They better live up to the hype or else there's going to be a lot of bitter fans.

[Linus]

I don't like the fact management has placed the entire burden of the organization on the shoulders of 2 players, but here we are. They better live up to the hype or else there's going to be a lot of bitter fans.

This. There are 25 guys on the roster and it kind of bugs me they focus so much on Sano and Buxton

[Han Joelo]

Thanks for the share.  I loved Gibby's comments at the end.

 

I might be over analyzing, but Rocco's use of the word "men" to describe them stood out to me.  Not guys, players, or worst of all--kids.  They are men now.  Young to me, but when I was 25, oh boy.  I could feel the power.  I will enjoy watching these guys ascend this year.

 

However, I can't believe Baldelli didn't know it was Buxton's birthday.  There are probably thousands of prospect hounds that know it.  And probably even a few who know the exact time and birth weight.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I don't like the fact management has placed the entire burden of the organization on the shoulders of 2 players, but here we are. They better live up to the hype or else there's going to be a lot of bitter fans.

“going to be”?

Already are a lot of bitter fans.

[caninatl04]

Wow. Bux got 5 R’S BI. I can only assume he’ll hit like this throughout the regular season and win the Triple Crown with 162 HR and 810 R’s BI.

 

Or is that not how baseball (or statistics) work...

[gunnarthor]

Twins General Manager Thad Levine said. “We believe they are going to vault forward, and we want to do everything we can to help them.”*

 

 

* "Except use our payroll flexibility to bring in outside talent to help alleviate the load we are putting on their shoulders. We think a lower payroll this year will really help with expectations."

[Doomtints]

Last year they didn't need to "vault forward" -- they only had to keep doing what they were doing from the year before.

 

Yes, last year was a failure but it's not just about these two guys. It wasn't then and it isn't now.

[Nine of twelve]

 

R’s BI.

Yes.

[theBOMisthebomb]

R's BI.

Yes.

I am with you on a correct abbreviation of the runs batted in statistic. Not to be "that guy" though, shouldn't it be Rs BI?

[ashbury]

R's BI.

I am with you on a correct abbreviation of the runs batted in statistic. Not to be "that guy" though, shouldn't it be Rs BI?

I've long been persuaded that RBI serves double duty.

 

Run Batted In

Runs Batted In

 

RBI either way.

[yarnivek1972]

Miller Time?!?

 

That sounds like a FANTASTIC idea.

[SomeGuy]

Buxton just smoked a double off the wall for 2 more RBI.  Almost 3 RBI but Cron was thrown out at home

 

Edit: Added a single and another RBI.  Batting a cool 4-4 with 8 RBI.

[nicksaviking]

Lots of other teams are winning baseball games without Sano and Buxton. Should those two not live up to expectations, I should hope the Twins are able to figure out how to do so as well.

 

That said, I hope they live up to expectations and think they can.

[ashbury]

Buxton just smoked a double off the wall for 2 more RBI.  Almost 3 RBI but Cron was thrown out at home

It probably could have been 4 RBI had Buxton not been afraid of being called out for passing Cron.

[wavedog]

to keep it going,  Buxton just added a 2 run HR in the 5th.   

[KirbyDome89]

 

I don't like the fact management has placed the entire burden of the organization on the shoulders of 2 players, but here we are. They better live up to the hype or else there's going to be a lot of bitter fans.

It's easier than focusing on the massive holes that haven't been addressed on the pitching side...

 

The FO is starting to become Teflon with some of the language they're pumping out.

[2wins87]

Man, I don't want to get excited over spring training stats, but hitting two HRs, a double, and two singles in his first 5 spring training ABs can't be a bad sign.

[Miggy's Little Helper]

The failure of Falvine is to not recognize (or willfully ignore) that just because you have a great season doesn't guarantee a repeat for either the individual or team.  See Twins circa 2011.  

 

Doesn't everyone see the massive upside on this team?  Just about everything went wrong last year.  Castro - lost for season; Polanco - suspended; Big Erv - lost for season; Buxton - essentially lost for season; Sano - essentially lost for season; Dozier - abberantly terrible; Lance Lynn - abberantly terrible; LoMo - abberantly terrible; Reed - fell apart.  Positives - Berrios - slight improvement (while continuing to be excellent); Gibson - best year yet; Rogers - amazing; Rodney - solid (and traded); Escobar - continued excellence (and traded); Rosario - continued excellence.  6/9 of the expected offensive contributors were either hurt, awful, or suspended.  And 2/5 of our rotation was hurt or awful.  YET, SOMEHOW (bad division, cough) THE TWINS WON 78 GAMES.  Going through that, it feels like 78 wins is essentially the floor for the 2019 Twins.     

 

The reality is that if Sano and Buxton both take a major leap forward, it's possible that the Twins could put up their best offensive performance in team history.  I'm not saying it absolutely will happen, but let the mind wander for a little bit, can you see it?  Take the current roster and replace Buxton with someone with the equivalent value to Yelich.  Take Sano and replace him with Donaldson.  How excited would you be?  

 

That the Twins aren't smartly positioning themselves to be better IN CASE Sano and Buxton (and the rest of the team for that matter) take off is a grave error.  They need to be thinking about October this year.  Even if Sano and Buxton take off in 2019, excellence in 2020 is not guaranteed.  This isn't the 2013 and 2014 roster.

 

I'd say there is a 1/5 chance that the Twins offense explodes this year and we regret taking a "wait and see" approach.  

 

  

 

 

[Nine of twelve]

 

I'd say there is a 1/5 chance that the Twins offense explodes this year and we regret taking a "wait and see" approach.  

How much money and how many prospects should a team sacrifice based on a 20% chance of success? Probably not much and not many.

[Jham]

How much money and how many prospects should a team sacrifice based on a 20% chance of success? Probably not much and not many.

This mutual exclusivity is tiring and unproductive. If we're trying to get better in the long run, why sign players to 1 year deals? Being in some guys that help now AND going forward. There were even some "build around" guys available if this "wait and see" doesn't work out. If Sano and Buck bomb again this year, where are we left? What if only one of them makes it? What if they're both only ok to pretty good? This is how you end up trading away all of your good players and hoping your prospects exceed their ceilings for decades at a time. IE the perpetual rebuild. Good teams perpetually add AND UPGRADE their talent whenever they can. They don't wait and see.

[MABB1959]

Hicks just got a great contract  Happy for him for sure!

 

[Miggy's Little Helper]

 

How much money and how many prospects should a team sacrifice based on a 20% chance of success? Probably not much and not many.

 

This is the definition of mediocrity.  The Twins keep putting themselves in a situation where they get blown out of the playoffs in the first round with this mindset.  A 20% chance of having an offense good enough to make a deep run in the playoffs is clearly worth spending ALL of the remaining money allocated to payroll to shore up pitching.  This is not a "savings" or "wait and see" year.  And if they're in contention come July, the Twins should dig even deeper at the deadline.  To argue otherwise is irresponsible.

 

Again, people need to stop acting on the assumption that (1) because the Twins offense has a great year in 2019 (the apparent precondition for spending next year), (2) the same group of players perform as well in the following year(s).  That's a patent falsehood. 

 

Dipping a toe in the water instead of jumping in could ruin the best year for this core--which only has 3-4 years left.  Despite that risk, far too many seem willing to let a potential peak year sail on by so that the team can book more profit.    

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

How much money and how many prospects should a team sacrifice based on a 20% chance of success? Probably not much and not many.

 

I would argue that spending money filling hole (like Cruz, Cron, etc.) increases those odds dramatically, as it makes it harder to pitch around guys. Honestly, it's the pitching that I think will hold this team back. 

 

I don't think this means signing tons of long term contracts though. I'm fine with shorter term deals as there will be longer term options available every offeason, and if guys like Sano, Buxton, and Kepler take that leap, then we can fill those holes.

 

My bigger problem was doing nothing to fill the holes in the pen.

[cardsfan]

This is the definition of mediocrity.  The Twins keep putting themselves in a situation where they get blown out of the playoffs in the first round with this mindset.  A 20% chance of having an offense good enough to make a deep run in the playoffs is clearly worth spending ALL of the remaining money allocated to payroll to shore up pitching.  This is not a "savings" or "wait and see" year.  And if they're in contention come July, the Twins should dig even deeper at the deadline.  To argue otherwise is irresponsible.

 

Again, people need to stop acting on the assumption that (1) because the Twins offense has a great year in 2019 (the apparent precondition for spending next year), (2) the same group of players perform as well in the following year(s).  That's a patent falsehood. 

 

Dipping a toe in the water instead of jumping in could ruin the best year for this core--which only has 3-4 years left.  Despite that risk, far too many seem willing to let a potential peak year sail on by so that the team can book more profit.

 

How is your starting pitching really? The Twins win 65% of Berrios starts instead of 50% with a decent BP along with Gibson doing well. The Twins since I’ve been following this forum haven’t been developing enough good starting pitching. Bullpen needs to be rebuilt every year. Sano and Buxton and Rosario well they seem decent pieces, but, what if they were more like Bregman, Correa and Altuve?

 

If injury free season yo will win 78-81 otherwise if BP blows up and starting pitching falter back to 60 wins, a long season. My Midwestern team hasn’t lost 90 or more since 1990. Only one losing season in this century.

[Miggy's Little Helper]

 

How is your starting pitching really? The Twins win 65% of Berrios starts instead of 50% with a decent BP along with Gibson doing well. The Twins since I’ve been following this forum haven’t been developing enough good starting pitching. Bullpen needs to be rebuilt every year. Sano and Buxton and Rosario well they seem decent pieces, but, what if they were more like Bregman, Correa and Altuve?

If injury free season yo will win 78-81 otherwise if BP blows up and starting pitching falter back to 60 wins, a long season. My Midwestern team hasn’t lost 90 or more since 1990. Only one losing season in this century.

 

The Twins were killed by injuries last year and still won 78 games.  So, they're not going back to 60 wins.  I'd say the mid 70s is the floor with this team in this division.

 

And, the entire point of my post is that signing someone like Keuchel could really make this team pretty darn good--especially if the offense takes off.  A Berrios, Keuchel, Gibson, Odorizzi, Pineda rotation is, at worst, an MLB average rotation.  Even with a below average rotation in 2017, the Twins offense propelled the team to 85 wins.