Twins should be taking advantage of this market

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Plus most of those home runs were hit in April and May and he had to play Joe Mauer to get his average "up" to .249.

While Harper was raising his average late in the season, he still had a .235 isolated power in August and a .224 ISO in September. Mauer only once had a full season ISO close to that, and that was his incredible 2009 (which still fell short at .222).

 

Yes, Harper had 18 HR in April/May -- but he also had only 6 other extra base hits those months, for a total of 24 XBH. In August/September, Harper recorded 26 total XBH (17 2B, 9 HR).

 

There's not really a case that his overall offensive performance was notably weaker late in the 2018 season as opposed to early in the season.

[Mike Sixel]

Over the last 4 years, Harper is the 7th best offensive player in the game. If he's not worth a monster deal when he's 26, who is?

[NapoleonComplex]

 

Machado and Harper were looking for mega mega deals in 8-10 year range.  That hasn't come to fruition for them.  

 

With both of them being 26 years old and the Twins having a 2 year window to not have to pay up for their young players they should go crazy for two years of Harper or Machado.  

 

Go and offer one of them 2 years/$70M (or more).  They will be free agents again when they are 28 years old.  And have a cool $70M sitting the bank.

 

So much this. I've been preaching this for a while. If Harper/Machado are hesitant to sign a long-term deal with the current CBA expiring, why not offer a short-term, ridiculously high AAV deal? It would be tough to pass up 3/$100M, then dip back into free agency at 29 years old after the new CBA is ratified. Heck, offer a third year player option.

 

My greatest disappointment with the Twins not spending this off-season is how all the stars seemed to align for them. The AL Central will be even weaker this year, we have a young nucleus with some make-or-break decisions looming, next to nothing on the books in 2020, and not even close to the commitment to 50% of revenue spent for the 2019 season. I can't for the life of me understand the short-term, let alone the long-term strategy for this ball club. It's incredibly frustrating as a die-hard fan. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Over the last 4 years, Harper is the 7th best offensive player in the game. If he's not worth a monster deal when he's 26, who is?

 

Maybe the 1st and 2nd guy.

 

But I'd be more than happy to settle for Harper. 

[Loosey]

 

So much this. I've been preaching this for a while. If Harper/Machado are hesitant to sign a long-term deal with the current CBA expiring, why not offer a short-term, ridiculously high AAV deal? It would be tough to pass up 3/$100M, then dip back into free agency at 29 years old after the new CBA is ratified. Heck, offer a third year player option.

 

My greatest disappointment with the Twins not spending this off-season is how all the stars seemed to align for them. The AL Central will be even weaker this year, we have a young nucleus with some make-or-break decisions looming, next to nothing on the books in 2020, and not even close to the commitment to 50% of revenue spent for the 2019 season. I can't for the life of me understand the short-term, let alone the long-term strategy for this ball club. It's incredibly frustrating as a die-hard fan. 

^This

[bighat]

 

Over the last 4 years, Harper is the 7th best offensive player in the game. If he's not worth a monster deal when he's 26, who is?

 

Dang, and that's over the past 4 years...and he's 26. Meanwhile, Buxton is 25. Let that sink in.

 

As for signing one of these guys, I'm all for it. But I'm doubting they want short-term deals at this point in their career, especially since their agents have been whispering in their ears for the past 3 years about the huge contract they'll sign.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It would be tough to pass up 3/$100M

Would it? Harper reportedly already turned down 10/300. Machado is apparently sitting on a 8/250 offer from the White Sox.

 

And the moment Harper or Machado shows a willingness to sign for only 2-3 years, I bet they would get a ton of offers -- the Twins offer might be one of 20 from which they can choose. Heck, Philadelphia might sign both of them at those terms.

 

(Also, there's a huge difference between being on the market at 26 and healthy/effective, versus hitting the market at 29 under unknown future circumstances. I understand why the players would be hesitant to sign a short term deal right now.)

[NapoleonComplex]

You're absolutely right that they'd get a ton of offers if they showed willingness to take 2-3 years. I don't believe there is a huge difference being on the market at 26 and 29. I actually believe there to be more benefit for the player at age 29. It's the cusp of physical prime, more especially for a position player. If they were pitchers I'd definitely agree to the point. I believe most of the hesitance is because of the long-term commitments being offered ... 8-10 years with the same club (assuming no options) is tough for a player at age 26. More especially if they're confident in their future abilities. 

[NapoleonComplex]

Hesitant to a long-term deal with a new CBA right around the corner.

[Major League Ready]

 

Over the last 4 years, Harper is the 7th best offensive player in the game. If he's not worth a monster deal when he's 26, who is?

 

How about the last 2 years ... 26th best player

[Mike Sixel]

How about the last 2 years ... 26th best player

He was hurt.... But sure. Of the thirty teams, he was better than the best player on multiple teams. And he's 26. Are you saying he's not great? Or not worth signing? Are you suggesting he's not going to be great? Because I don't know what point you are making.

[Mike Sixel]

Why did Cruz come, if it is about more than money?

[Mike Sixel]

I'd pay the ten year deal for either. 30-33 million per.

[Mike Sixel]

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

As presently constructed, I'm not sure this pitching staff is capable of winning 70 games. It is truly awful.

I'm pretty bent about the offseason but this statement is a stretch. The Twins lost little but gained Pineda.

 

They also signed... other stuff... that I'm not eager to talk about right now.

[Linus]

Brett Anderson for $1.5 million. I like that deal way more than Perez. Sergio Romo? I believe he would be an upgrade for pen. I really have no idea how Falvine’s player Evaluation works. The free agent failure of the Twins isn’t about Harper or Machado. It’s about the plethora of affordable free agents they passed on that could have reshaped this team regardless of Sano or Buxton. The idea that we have to wait on these two before we make solid improvements to the team is a joke. It’s like their first year when they did nothing to improve a horrid pitching staff because they needed time to evaluate. Everyone knew their pitching sucked - no evaluation needed. I think these two have to be the smartest guys in the room which doesn’t bode well for our favorite 9. I would welcome Terry Ryan back in a heartbeat. At least he accomplished something.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I would welcome Terry Ryan back in a heartbeat. At least he accomplished something.

Ew. No. I'm upset about this offseason but I still trust Falvine FAR more than I did Ryan over his last few seasons.

 

I'm disappointed with this offseason but I'm also unsure enough about it that I admit I could be wrong. Going into the last few winters of Ryan's tenure, I was confident in my opinions, most of which turned out to be right. He simply was not doing a good job running this franchise and I say that as a person who still respects the hell out of the man despite his failures the second time around.

[Linus]

Ew. No. I'm upset about this offseason but I still trust Falvine FAR more than I did Ryan over his last few seasons.

 

I'm disappointed with this offseason but I'm also unsure enough about it that I admit I could be wrong. Going into the last few winters of Ryan's tenure, I was confident in my opinions, most of which turned out to be right. He simply was not doing a good job running this franchise and I say that as a person who still respects the hell out of the man despite his failures the second time around.

He had his weaknesses but hubris wasn’t one of them. Plus he could evaluate talent at the highest level, particularly minor league and amateur players. Based on what I’ve seen so far Falvine don’t have that ability. Ryan proved he could do the job at one point and then didn’t the second time around. I’m willing to bet that Falvine don’t ever match any of his accomplishments despite more resources.

[Riverbrian]

 

 I would welcome Terry Ryan back in a heartbeat. At least he accomplished something.

 

I admit the jury is still out on Falvey and Lavine. 

 

On the other hand... In regards to Terry Ryan... The Jury has rendered it's verdict. 

 

He was one of us for many years, he deserves a statue at 1 Twins Way.  but the future is here and Terry wasn't ready for it. 

[Linus]

I admit the jury is still out on Falvey and Lavine.

 

On the other hand... In regards to Terry Ryan... The Jury has rendered it's verdict.

 

He was one of us for many years, he deserves a statue at 1 Twins Way. but the future is here and Terry wasn't ready for it.

I get all that and am not going to pretend he wasn’t slow to analytics etc. however he had more success than most GMs and even in his “unsuccessful “ second tenure he rebuilt the farm system to the point it provided most of our current starters. I feel most posters are quick to dump on him and view Falvine favorably for no apparent reason. Ultimately that role comes down to proper decisions whether you do it from a scouts eye or a spreadsheet. I don’t care how analytically the decisions are made if they are wrong then it’s a failure. So far they have not proven astute in this area. I am excited about some of the methods they are using with their pitching prospects but that is really the only area where I see promise

[old nurse]

 

The league non-pitcher batting average was down to .252 last year. It hasn't been that low since 1968 -- the year Yastrzemski won the AL batting title at .301. In fact, 1968 (.245), 1908 (.246), and 1967 (.251) are the only 3 seasons in MLB history after 1900 with a lower non-pitcher batting average than 2018.

 

Killebrew had a below average AVG in 1962 too, his age 26 season. Would you have advised a team not to sign Killebrew after that season? Overall he still had a 138 OPS+ that year. Harper last year was 25 years old, and had a 133 OPS+ despite his slightly below average AVG.

Killebrew was not a free agent them.  I doubt that Killebrew was paid 15-20% of a payroll like Harper is seeking. Harper would not like to play for 3x the average salary of a player like Killebrew did in his prime.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

He had his weaknesses but hubris wasn’t one of them. Plus he could evaluate talent at the highest level, particularly minor league and amateur players. Based on what I’ve seen so far Falvine don’t have that ability. Ryan proved he could do the job at one point and then didn’t the second time around. I’m willing to bet that Falvine don’t ever match any of his accomplishments despite more resources.

It's possible Falvine never reach Ryan's success.

 

But you already admitted Ryan could no longer reach his former level of success so it's a bit of a moot point, isn't it?

 

At least there's room for improvement in one front office, not so much the other.

[Linus]

Didn’t say that. Wins and losses weren’t good in the second tenure but he rebuilt the farm system substantially. Falvine inherited a pretty good situation that they have not capitalized on. I hope they do because I want the twins to succeed no matter who is in the front office

[jorgenswest]

This is Falvey’s team and Falvey’s staff. Three years in the bar needs to be buyer at the deadline.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Didn’t say that. Wins and losses weren’t good in the second tenure but he rebuilt the farm system substantially. Falvine inherited a pretty good situation that they have not capitalized on. I hope they do because I want the twins to succeed no matter who is in the front office

Did he, though? Look at those top six draft picks he had: Buxton (okay, maybe something there but underwhelming considering the hype), Kohl Stewart (ooh, maybe not so hot), Nick Gordon (looking less awesome by the day), and Tyler Jay (sigh).

He had four years of top picks and not a single one of them has turned into even an every day regular.

 

The Twins' farm system should be better than it is right now, as should the MLB team. That's on Ryan. I gave him every benefit of the doubt but very little he did in his second tenure turned out (we have Berrios and then little worth mentioning after that).

[Linus]

Did he, though? Look at those top six draft picks he had: Buxton (okay, maybe something there but underwhelming considering the hype), Kohl Stewart (ooh, maybe not so hot), Nick Gordon (looking less awesome by the day), and Tyler Jay (sigh).

 

He had four years of top picks and not a single one of them has turned into even an every day regular.

 

The Twins' farm system should be better than it is right now, as should the MLB team. That's on Ryan. I gave him every benefit of the doubt but very little he did in his second tenure turned out (we have Berrios and then little worth mentioning after that).

Agree to disagree. I get that most posters don’t see it my way. Which I am fine with.

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

 

He was hurt.... 

Well, that'll never happen again

[ashbury]

Arghhhh! Can we have one free agent thread that isn't hijacked by the same discussion about Harper and Machado.

 

It's possible Falvine never reach Ryan's success.

 

But you already admitted Ryan could no longer reach his former level of success so it's a bit of a moot point, isn't it?

Hey at least we're not rehashing Harper and Machado now.

[Mike Sixel]

Well, that'll never happen again

It could happen to even super fit 24 year olds..... If you are going to fear any long term deals, good luck having sustained success.

 

And you left off the part where he was still better than all but 25 players, many of which are older, or under contract.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Agree to disagree. I get that most posters don’t see it my way. Which I am fine with.

Sure, I can let it go but it seems strange to play up Ryan's last tenure when I just laid out some pretty brutal ugliness of seriously high draft picks.

 

If you have a rebuttal, I'm open to hearing it.