Twins should be taking advantage of this market

[old nurse]

 

It could happen to even super fit 24 year olds..... If you are going to fear any long term deals, good luck having sustained success.

And you left off the part where he was still better than all but 25 players, many of which are older, or under contract.

Other than Beltre and Hunter, very few longer term free agent signings have worked. Scherzer and Cano are in the middle of their deals, they are working out so far. Many have one or two good years then are unproductive.

 

[Riverbrian]

 

I get all that and am not going to pretend he wasn’t slow to analytics etc. however he had more success than most GMs and even in his “unsuccessful “ second tenure he rebuilt the farm system to the point it provided most of our current starters. I feel most posters are quick to dump on him and view Falvine favorably for no apparent reason. Ultimately that role comes down to proper decisions whether you do it from a scouts eye or a spreadsheet. I don’t care how analytically the decisions are made if they are wrong then it’s a failure. So far they have not proven astute in this area. I am excited about some of the methods they are using with their pitching prospects but that is really the only area where I see promise

 

I know you do and I get your point. Everybody is doing the analytic thing these days. They are going to have to take this thing to a different level beyond that. Jury is still out. 

 

You just shocked some of us with the take Ryan back comment. 

[Mike Sixel]

Other than Beltre and Hunter, very few longer term free agent signings have worked. Scherzer and Cano are in the middle of their deals, they are working out so far. Many have one or two good years then are unproductive.

They weren't 26.......

[old nurse]

 

They weren't 26.......

Jason Heyward was 26 when he signed his long term deal.  fwar 1,1 and 2 post signing. There is nothing saying that being 26 is the end all. There are many free agents signing at 28, 29 who do not meat  their prior performances.  there are many who do.

[killertwinfan]

 

This may be one of the smarter statements I have heard about the free agent market.  The factor used for risk in their equation could trump the possibility for the 10 year high dollar deals.  The players have to chose for high salary or high security.  They can't have both until the risk factor is adjusted.  

[Riverbrian]

 

This may be one of the smarter statements I have heard about the free agent market.  The factor used for risk in their equation could trump the possibility for the 10 year high dollar deals.  The players have to chose for high salary or high security.  They can't have both until the risk factor is adjusted.  

 

Here's what I imagine in my head. I could be wrong... I could be right.

 

All teams have increased analytic departments. 

 

A collection of smart people will eventually get around to analyzing the value of every free agent ever signed.

 

They will look at the money spent and the production received for that money spent. 

 

At the same time they will get around to analyzing the money spent and the production of players that haven't reached free agency. 

 

They will then look at both sets of numbers and compare. 

 

The end result is the end of free agency as we know it.

 

I feel fine

 

 

[killertwinfan]

 

Wow that seems a little shortsighted.  Berrios and Gibson were both in the top 15 in the AL in WAR for pitchers last year.  Odorizzi had his worst season on the majors and still was top 50.  Pineda has good stuff coming back from TJS.  Have 5 to 6 options with either Majors or AAA experience waiting in the wings.  Not sure how that equates to 70 wins.  Last year where a lot of things went wrong, including basically lost seasons from Sano and Buxton and we won 78.  We lost no one of importance, added a much better DH in Cruz, Sano and Buxton really can't be any worse, the still young guys like Kepler, Berrios, Hildenberger have another year of experience but somehow we are going to be 10 games worse than last year?

I agree that our starters appear competitive and could even be in the top quartile with all of them at top form. However I am concerned with the relief pitching.  I think the Twins had 30 blown saves last year, among the worst in the AL.  The record is 39 by the Marlins.  Consider the fact that our run production could be lower and therefore the games are tighter it will put a lot of pressure on the closer(s). I doubt we set the new record for blown saves, but if we struggle more than last year it seems the 70 win mark could be a good over/under mark.  

[Miggy's Little Helper]

 

Here's what I imagine in my head. I could be wrong... I could be right.

 

All teams have increased analytic departments. 

 

A collection of smart people will eventually get around to analyzing the value of every free agent ever signed.

 

They will look at the money spent and the production received for that money spent. 

 

At the same time they will get around to analyzing the money spent and the production of players that haven't reached free agency. 

 

They will then look at both sets of numbers and compare. 

 

The end result is the end of free agency as we know it.

 

I feel fine

 

Yes and yes.  Free agency as we know it only exists because players aren't paid their true value for the first 6-7 years.  If analytics departments are now averse to spending money on free agents, and want to pay for productivity, then the natural result is that the players will demand to be paid more in years 1-7.   

 

Analytics has no regard for the aftermath of gaming the system to unlock value (the result of which is apparently increased revenue retention by owners) in a world where the rules of the system have to be collectively bargained at periodic intervals.  It's short-sighted and stupid--pennywise and pound foolish.  We should all fear what is to come in 2022.        

[Supfin99]

I agree that our starters appear competitive and could even be in the top quartile with all of them at top form. However I am concerned with the relief pitching.  I think the Twins had 30 blown saves last year, among the worst in the AL.  The record is 39 by the Marlins.  Consider the fact that our run production could be lower and therefore the games are tighter it will put a lot of pressure on the closer(s). I doubt we set the new record for blown saves, but if we struggle more than last year it seems the 70 win mark could be a good over/under mark.

 

I guess we agree to disagree. Like you said last year we were among the worst in the AL in blown saves and yet we still won 78 games. Reed was terrible for most of the year and Hilgenberger struggled massively in the 2nd half. How exactly will our run production go down? No one had a career type year, Buck, Sano and LoMo were terrible. It will be hard for for Cron, Buck and Sano to be that bad this year. Cruz is a massive upgrade. Castro returns and Garver in his second season. Kepler disappointed and Polanco missed half the season. Right now I look at our lineup and if some things break right I see us scoring 800 runs like we did in 2017.

[Mike Sixel]

Jason Heyward was 26 when he signed his long term deal. fwar 1,1 and 2 post signing. There is nothing saying that being 26 is the end all. There are many free agents signing at 28, 29 who do not meat their prior performances. there are many who do.

So what's your point? Don't sign free agents because they might get hurt, or not be good? I'm but sure where this is going.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

I agree that our starters appear competitive and could even be in the top quartile with all of them at top form. However I am concerned with the relief pitching.  I think the Twins had 30 blown saves last year, among the worst in the AL.  The record is 39 by the Marlins.  Consider the fact that our run production could be lower and therefore the games are tighter it will put a lot of pressure on the closer(s). I doubt we set the new record for blown saves, but if we struggle more than last year it seems the 70 win mark could be a good over/under mark.  

 

That's why most of us just wanted them to sign Cruz, which they did, and bring in 2-3 TOP relief arms. I think that is all that was needed to be competitive in the Central. The problem is, they brought in a couple scrap heap pitchers and are hoping and praying on their bullpen. They had the money, they should have identified who they thought were the best 2 out there available in either FA or trade and paid whatever it took to get them. They didn't and that's why most are frustrated. 

[howieramone2]

 

Did he, though? Look at those top six draft picks he had: Buxton (okay, maybe something there but underwhelming considering the hype), Kohl Stewart (ooh, maybe not so hot), Nick Gordon (looking less awesome by the day), and Tyler Jay (sigh).

He had four years of top picks and not a single one of them has turned into even an every day regular.

 

The Twins' farm system should be better than it is right now, as should the MLB team. That's on Ryan. I gave him every benefit of the doubt but very little he did in his second tenure turned out (we have Berrios and then little worth mentioning after that).

LaVelle told us, TR was in charge of IFA during the Bill Smith era. We know he started the initiative circa 2005 or 2006. Look at how many of those players are around. Don't forget Romero and Graterol.

 

Also, it's amazing how many teams are not consistently or wholeheartedly making an effort in IFA. We have been one of the best for almost 10 years. 

[howieramone2]

 

Sure, I can let it go but it seems strange to play up Ryan's last tenure when I just laid out some pretty brutal ugliness of seriously high draft picks.

 

If you have a rebuttal, I'm open to hearing it.

See mine.

[howieramone2]

 

I agree that our starters appear competitive and could even be in the top quartile with all of them at top form. However I am concerned with the relief pitching.  I think the Twins had 30 blown saves last year, among the worst in the AL.  The record is 39 by the Marlins.  Consider the fact that our run production could be lower and therefore the games are tighter it will put a lot of pressure on the closer(s). I doubt we set the new record for blown saves, but if we struggle more than last year it seems the 70 win mark could be a good over/under mark.  

We are going to score mucho more runs this year. A far better over/under is 84.

[Mike Sixel]

We are going to score mucho more runs this year. A far better over/under is 84.

Agreed.

[Miggy's Little Helper]

Also, it's easy to freak out about relief pitching, but relief pitching is the most volatile asset on a team.  Reed, Parker, May, Hildenberger, and Rogers are all very solid relief assets.  It doesn't excuse the team from not signing Allen to a 1-year deal, but I wouldn't say that we're helpless in close games.  We've got some serious talent. 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

LaVelle told us, TR was in charge of IFA during the Bill Smith era.

For the record, I've not been able to find any cite for this claim at all. And there was quite extensive reporting about how the Twins landed Miguel Sano in 2009 (as well as Kepler and Polanco that same year) -- and none of those reports even mention Terry Ryan.

 

I don't doubt that you believe you heard or read this from LaVelle, but I think it's very likely that LaVelle was either incorrect or misinterpreted.

[nicksaviking]

 

Also, it's easy to freak out about relief pitching, but relief pitching is the most volatile asset on a team.  Reed, Parker, May, Hildenberger, and Rogers are all very solid relief assets.  It doesn't excuse the team from not signing Allen to a 1-year deal, but I wouldn't say that we're helpless in close games.  We've got some serious talent. 

 

I'd drop Reed and Hildenberger for two of Tyler Clippard, Bud Norris, Ryan Madson and Nick Vincent right now. All of whom will likely get a one year deal if not even a minor league deal.

 

I might drop them anyway, actually.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Robbie Grossman has signed on with the A's. Some markets are OK to miss out on.

 

GL in Oakland Robbie.

[nicksaviking]

 

This may be one of the smarter statements I have heard about the free agent market.  The factor used for risk in their equation could trump the possibility for the 10 year high dollar deals.  The players have to chose for high salary or high security.  They can't have both until the risk factor is adjusted.  

 

Yeah, I don't think anyone really means that the analytics say don't sign Bryce Harper. Everyone just means the analytics are helping them find much cheaper options.

 

The owners are screwing the players, but the players aren't accepting reality. There seems to be a pretty easy compromise here but the players clearly don't like it, except maybe Josh Donaldson. Teams don't want guys over 30 under contract for multiple years and for good reason. The players should still be looking for massive paydays but they have to accept that no one wants to pay them full value after their peak years anymore even if they deserved more during their peak years. Harper should still be pushing for a game-changing contract, but it should be AAV, not the number of years. He should be asking for 5 years at $50M per or something similarly eye-opening..

[howieramone2]

 

I'd drop Reed and Hildenberger for two of Tyler Clippard, Bud Norris, Ryan Madson and Nick Vincent right now. All of whom will likely get a one year deal if not even a minor league deal.

 

I might drop them anyway, actually.

Reed was the 3rd highest rated reliever in the free agent class of 2018. His chance to rebound is probably 80-90%. He's had too good of career. I read at MLB trade rumors the top 15 highest paid relievers in the class of 2018 all accumulated less than 1 WAR. Free agent relievers are always going to be 50/50.

[wsnydes]

 

LaVelle told us, TR was in charge of IFA during the Bill Smith era. We know he started the initiative circa 2005 or 2006. Look at how many of those players are around. Don't forget Romero and Graterol.

 

Also, it's amazing how many teams are not consistently or wholeheartedly making an effort in IFA. We have been one of the best for almost 10 years. 

 

 

For the record, I've not been able to find any cite for this claim at all. And there was quite extensive reporting about how the Twins landed Miguel Sano in 2009 (as well as Kepler and Polanco that same year) -- and none of those reports even mention Terry Ryan.

 

I don't doubt that you believe you heard or read this from LaVelle, but I think it's very likely that LaVelle was either incorrect or misinterpreted.

My understanding was that TR was an adviser/consultant during the Bill Smith era. I know that doesn't preclude that he wasn't in charge of IFA, but that title would imply that somebody else was in charge of IFA.

 

Of course, I could be misremembering.

[Mike Sixel]

Yeah, I don't think anyone really means that the analytics say don't sign Bryce Harper. Everyone just means the analytics are helping them find much cheaper options.

 

The owners are screwing the players, but the players aren't accepting reality. There seems to be a pretty easy compromise here but the players clearly don't like it, except maybe Josh Donaldson. Teams don't want guys over 30 under contract for multiple years and for good reason. The players should still be looking for massive paydays but they have to accept that no one wants to pay them full value after their peak years anymore even if they deserved more during their peak years. Harper should still be pushing for a game-changing contract, but it should be AAV, not the number of years. He should be asking for 5 years at $50M per or something similarly eye-opening..

Great.... But if you aren't a free agent until thirty, what reality allows most players to get paid?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

My understanding was that TR was an adviser/consultant during the Bill Smith era. I know that doesn't preclude that he wasn't in charge of IFA, but that title would imply that somebody else was in charge of IFA.

 

Of course, I could be misremembering.

You are correct -- Terry Ryan was officially a "special assistant" to the GM during the Bill Smith years. It's possible he was involved in certain things behind the scenes, although it is doubtful that was "in charge" of IFA with that title.

 

It's also possible TR wasn't involved much at all during that time -- the Twins re-hire basically everyone as a special assistant at some point: Gardy, Cuddy, Morneau, Kaat, etc. Probably just to coach at spring training and/or officially represent the club at different functions. Bill Smith was re-hired as a special assistant too after his GM stint, focusing on the facilities in Ft. Myers and in the Dominican. I haven't heard of any of these special assistants being in charge of any player personnel decisions, though.

[Miggy's Little Helper]

 

Great.... But if you aren't a free agent until thirty, what reality allows most players to get paid?

 

Ending the discount in years 1-7.

[nicksaviking]

 

Reed was the 3rd highest rated reliever in the free agent class of 2018. His chance to rebound is probably 80-90%. He's had too good of career. I read at MLB trade rumors the top 15 highest paid relievers in the class of 2018 all accumulated less than 1 WAR. Free agent relievers are always going to be 50/50.

 

He lost 2 MPH on his fastball by the end of the year. Unless he gets that back, I've got no confidence in him rebounding, and I don't have much confidence that he'll get it back.

 

If he does great, but if he's only sitting at 89-90 MPH at the end of spring training the team should have no qualms about eating the rest of the contract and walking away if better options are available., 

[nicksaviking]

 

Great.... But if you aren't a free agent until thirty, what reality allows most players to get paid?

 

At this time, none, and very clearly. The big time players are having no luck getting long term deals so they should course correct in the near term for short term deals at high value and course correct long term with serious renegotiation of pay for rookie contracts, a salary floor and elimination of service time requirements in the next CBA.

[ashbury]

At this time, none, and very clearly. The big time players are having no luck getting long term deals so they should course correct in the near term for short term deals at high value and course correct long term with serious renegotiation of pay for rookie contracts, a salary floor and elimination of service time requirements in the next CBA.

Another way of saying it: currently the business model is that the small and medium markets are given a fighting chance by being able to lock up the best part of most players' careers, via service time manipulation and then a lengthy apprentice period. Only the very best players are useful outside of this pair of start/end points. Competitive balance (as well as the players' collective share of the overall pie) needs to be addressed in some new way, because analytics in part have refined how to extract that maximum value from the player's career to the average player's detriment.

 

IMO the players' position should be "we want x% of the overall MLB revenue, and within reason we don't really care how you accomplish that", instead of focusing on the highest-end salaries to drive the entire market upward via the arbitration system.

[nicksaviking]

 

Another way of saying it: currently the business model is that the small and medium markets are given a fighting chance by being able to lock up the best part of most players' careers, via service time manipulation and then a lengthy apprentice period. Only the very best players are useful outside of this pair of start/end points. Competitive balance (as well as the players' collective share of the overall pie) needs to be addressed in some new way, because analytics in part have refined how to extract that maximum value from the player's career to the average player's detriment.

 

IMO the players' position should be "we want x% of the overall MLB revenue, and within reason we don't really care how you accomplish that", instead of focusing on the highest-end salaries to drive the entire market upward via the arbitration system.

 

Sigh, you mean a BETTER way of saying it.

[Miggy's Little Helper]

 

At this time, none, and very clearly. The big time players are having no luck getting long term deals so they should course correct in the near term for short term deals at high value and course correct long term with serious renegotiation of pay for rookie contracts, a salary floor and elimination of service time requirements in the next CBA.

 

As long as we're all aware that the changes coming to the CBA do not bode well for the bottom 20 teams in the league, then great.  Average and below average payroll teams are about to get slaughtered.  All teams will run close to $100M payrolls with just their service time controlled players (or any agreed-to equivalent)--leaving the biggest spenders to buy all the prime free agents on high-value shorter term deals.  What makes anyone think the new-CBA world to which we're headed will be so much better when the Twins have a $100M payroll for 20 pre-FAs and now have to find 5 FAs to round out their roster for $30MM?  Forget ever signing Harper or Machado.  They won't be able to swing an elite AAV contract for 4 years/$160MM?  They can't.  It's not just about long term risk, it's about how much they can spend in the first place.  They're not going to push the payroll beyond 50% revenue just because they're in their window.

 

Meanwhile the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Phillies, etc. can have 3-4 prime FAs on their roster at any given time and recycle them every 4-5 years without being hindered by the downside of any contract.  The majority of owners are about to concede any semblance of competitive balance because they don't want to pay pre-FAs for their current performance and don't want to pay FAs for past performance.