Twins actively discussing locking up parts of young core

[nytwinsfan]

Apologies if someone posted this earlier, in which case moderators can feel free to delete, but I hadn't seen anyone mention what I think is very happy news, and could help alleviate some (but not all) of my dissapointment with this offseason's free agent signings.

 

According to the Pioneer Press, Falvey and Levine are actively talking with at least some of their young core about extensions.

 

https://www.twincities.com/2019/01/27/twins-gm-thad-levine-talks-mega-free-agents-extensions/

The GM also addressed the potential of locking up the Twins’ young core pieces to longer-term deals.

“Without getting into names, we’re actively having some of those conversations behind the scenes and we as a club would like nothing more than to be able to announce one, two, three of those types of extensions at some point here in spring training,” he told the crowd.

 

 

My own order of priority for signing extensions would be: (1) Berrios, (2) Rosario, (3) Buxton, (4) Kepler, (5) Polanco, (6) May, (7) Sano.

 

I don't think we should extend Gibson, although by all means make him a 1 year Qualifying Offer (or above) to try to entice him to come back for one year.  Sano strikes me as someone whose value will go down in the next few years after he loses the ability to play decently at 3B, plus his off the field issues.  Berrios seems like a no brainer. A talented extremely young pitcher with an incredible work ethic and low (for a pitcher) injury risk. Get as many years at the end of FA as you can. Rosario is gone in 3 years, but because of his age, a one or two year extension would seem about right. Buxton or Kepler I could imagine signing for a 2-3 year extension if the amount is right (don't want to overpay with these two, since they could easily just end up being 1.5-2.5 WAR a year players, even though both have upside).  

 

 

[nicksaviking]

 

 

 

My own order of priority for signing extensions would be: (1) Berrios, (2) Rosario, (3) Buxton, (4) Kepler, (5) Polanco, (6) May, (7) Sano.

 

 

That would probably be my order as well, though if I was the front office and was convinced Sano has turned over a new leaf I might bump him up to as high as 3. From this vantage point, it's impossible to tell.

 

But only the first two would I actively stump for at this time, though May is a free agent soonest, so if they want to do something with him it might be now or never.

[nytwinsfan]

 

That would probably be my order as well, though if I was the front office and was convinced Sano has turned over a new leaf I might bump him up to as high as 3.

 

But only the first two would I actively stump for at this time, though May is a free agent soonest, so if they want to do something with him it might be now or never.

Totally on the same page.  Buxton or Kepler if the money is very good. Otherwise yeah, i'd focus on Berrios and Rosario and check with May about a year or two more in light of the fact he's a FA after 2020 but isn't getting paid much right now.  

[blindeke]

I will believe it when i see it.

[KGB]

I hope they have better luck than last year.  Didn't last year they say they tried to sign extension with 5 players, but didn't get any done?

[nytwinsfan]

 

I hope they have better luck than last year.  Didn't last year they say they tried to sign extension with 5 players, but didn't get any done?

Yeah, although the sense I got was they didn't try THAT hard and were merely looking for great team-friendly deals. Will see if that changes this year.

[PseudoSABR]

Locking up some players would go a long way to assuaging my frustration with their lack of spending this off-season.  But, of course, the two (spending on FAs and locking up the core) aren't mutually exclusive; but front-loaded contracts could make this season's payroll a bit more palatable.   

[gunnarthor]

If I'm Buxton or Sano, I'm betting on myself and won't sign a longterm deal after last year. If I'm Berrios, I'd sign a fair longterm deal but I'm not sure the team will offer a fair one. Rosario and Kepler probably make the most since of the core guys since they've both been steady for several years so both sides probably have a decent guess of their value and upside.

[nytwinsfan]

 

If I'm Buxton or Sano, I'm betting on myself and won't sign a longterm deal after last year. If I'm Berrios, I'd sign a fair longterm deal but I'm not sure the team will offer a fair one. Rosario and Kepler probably make the most since of the core guys since they've both been steady for several years so both sides probably have a decent guess of their value and upside.

Agreed, although I really hope they offer Berrios a "fair" deal.

[SF Twins Fan]

I'd love for the team to sign Berrios and Kepler to a long term deals and then try to sign Gibson and May to a two to three year deals. 

[nater79a]

One thing to keep in mind - just because you sign a player to a multi-year extension doesn't necessarily mean you're also trying to buy out some of their free agent years.  In some cases, that may be true.  But probably more important is getting some cost certainty for the club into the future, especially during the arbitration years.  Believe Whit Merrifield just signed a multi-year deal with the Royals that just takes him right up to free agency.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

One thing to keep in mind - just because you sign a player to a multi-year extension doesn't necessarily mean you're also trying to buy out some of their free agent years. In some cases, that may be true. But probably more important is getting some cost certainty for the club into the future, especially during the arbitration years. Believe Whit Merrifield just signed a multi-year deal with the Royals that just takes him right up to free agency.

Cost certainty has some value, but I highly doubt that it is more important than extra years of control, at least in most cases.

 

Merrifield gave up one FA season, via team option. And he's already 30, so the Royals now control him through age 34 -- quite a bit different than most of the Twins extension targets.

[yarnivek1972]

Agree with the exception of Kepler. He needs to show he can hit major league pitching consistently before they should offer him a multi-year deal unless it's on a very team friendly basis. He's not part of the core right now; the other 6 are.

?????

 

I don’t even know where to begin.

 

1) How is Kepler not consistent compared with Buxton and Sano? His three years at the MLB level he posted OPS + of 96, 95 and 96. That’s the literal definition of consistent.

 

2) Why does he have to prove he can consistently hit? Buxton and Sano sure as hell haven’t.

 

3) IMO Kepler is more likely to be a Twin in 5 years than Sano or Buxton. Or Rosario frankly.

[S.]

Why would you want to lock up a consistently 95 OPS+ player on a long term contract unless it is incredibly team friendly?

[beckmt]

 

One thing to keep in mind - just because you sign a player to a multi-year extension doesn't necessarily mean you're also trying to buy out some of their free agent years.  In some cases, that may be true.  But probably more important is getting some cost certainty for the club into the future, especially during the arbitration years.  Believe Whit Merrifield just signed a multi-year deal with the Royals that just takes him right up to free agency.

But Merrifield is already around 30, so guaranteed money is a bigger thing to him, than risk.

[yarnivek1972]

Why would you want to lock up a consistently 95 OPS+ player on a long term contract unless it is incredibly team friendly?

Why lock up Sano or Buxton when there are legitimate questions as to whether or not they are MLB hitters?

 

There is no reason to think Kepler can’t at least maintain what he’s done. And he’s pretty likely to improve. There is literally no definable base for speculation as to what to expect from Sano or Buxton. They have both been horrendously inconsistent.

[S.]

 

Why lock up Sano or Buxton when there are legitimate questions as to whether or not they are MLB hitters?

There is no reason to think Kepler can’t at least maintain what he’s done. And he’s pretty likely to improve. There is literally no definable base for speculation as to what to expect from Sano or Buxton. They have both been horrendously inconsistent.

I should've clarified, I don't disagree on the Sano and Buxton parts and certainly wouldn't offer either of them any long term contracts at the moment either. I do agree, Kepler is likely to maintain what he is, but I'm not in any particular hurry to lock up a 95 OPS+ outfielder to a long term contract. Though I could live with a 2 or 3 year deal if the price is right. I would not be happy if they gave him longer than 3 years, and I think the cost is going to need to be pretty team friendly. I'd rather have them go outside the org if they're going to give him more years or big dollars, but I know some people are higher on Kepler than me and think he's still going to break out.

[SomeGuy]

 

?????

I don’t even know where to begin.

1) How is Kepler not consistent compared with Buxton and Sano? His three years at the MLB level he posted OPS + of 96, 95 and 96. That’s the literal definition of consistent.

2) Why does he have to prove he can consistently hit? Buxton and Sano sure as hell haven’t.

3) IMO Kepler is more likely to be a Twin in 5 years than Sano or Buxton. Or Rosario frankly.

Sano is a better hitter than Kepler.  Hopefully he proves me right when I've maintained that last year was him not being fully healthy, missed offseason, etc.  But pre-2018 Sano was quite a bit better than Kepler has been. 

 

Career lines, including 2018

Sano  .244/.336/.477

Kepler .233/.313/.417

[ewen21]

Berrios and Rosario warrant a discussion.  The others do not

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

?????

I don’t even know where to begin.

1) How is Kepler not consistent compared with Buxton and Sano? His three years at the MLB level he posted OPS + of 96, 95 and 96. That’s the literal definition of consistent.

2) Why does he have to prove he can consistently hit? Buxton and Sano sure as hell haven’t.

3) IMO Kepler is more likely to be a Twin in 5 years than Sano or Buxton. Or Rosario frankly.

Kepler is 26. You can begin there.

[rdehring]

Really want them to extend Berrios, Rosario, Gibson and May.  Also would understand doing Kepler, Buxton and Sano, although each of the last two would be a bit tricky considering their 2018's.  

 

Excellent time to front load some contracts with nice signing bonuses with dollar certainty two-three-four years out. 

[yarnivek1972]

Kepler is 26. You can begin there.

Sano will be 26 in May. Exactly what is your point?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

Sano will be 26 in May. Exactly what is your point?

My point regarding Kepler is that he's still maturing as a hitter. 

[yarnivek1972]

I should've clarified, I don't disagree on the Sano and Buxton parts and certainly wouldn't offer either of them any long term contracts at the moment either. I do agree, Kepler is likely to maintain what he is, but I'm not in any particular hurry to lock up a 95 OPS+ outfielder to a long term contract. Though I could live with a 2 or 3 year deal if the price is right. I would not be happy if they gave him longer than 3 years, and I think the cost is going to need to be pretty team friendly. I'd rather have them go outside the org if they're going to give him more years or big dollars, but I know some people are higher on Kepler than me and think he's still going to break out.

I don’t think anyone is suggesting that Kepler should get superstar money. But there is a lot of value in a 3-4 year contract for him - on both sides. At what price? No idea. Something fair? Is that a cop out?

[Mike Sixel]

If I'm Buxton or Sano, I'm betting on myself and won't sign a longterm deal after last year. If I'm Berrios, I'd sign a fair longterm deal but I'm not sure the team will offer a fair one. Rosario and Kepler probably make the most since of the core guys since they've both been steady for several years so both sides probably have a decent guess of their value and upside.

This. Except if you believe in Kirilloff, I don't extend Rosario. Frankly I trade him at this deadline, I bet.

[darin617]

 

I will believe it when i see it.

They might try to extend some of them. Sad part is they won't get any of them to sign into their free agent years.

[jorgenswest]

They might try to extend some of them. Sad part is they won't get any of them to sign into their free agent years.

Is it considered an extension if it does not go beyond years on control? I read lock up to longer term deals as extending control.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Is it considered an extension if it does not go beyond years on control? I read lock up to longer term deals as extending control.

I agree that is how the term should be used, but in practice it seems "extend" is simply any new multi-year deal for a player already under contract.

 

For example, see MLBTR's post from 2015, "Twins Extend Brian Dozier":

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/03/twins-extend-brian-dozier.html

[yarnivek1972]

Kepler is consistent; consistently below average. Why lock up a below average hitter when he's had a 1500+ AB opportunity and come up short at the plate? I also agree on Sano and Buxton, I just don't think that any Twins FO is ever going to give up on them because they have such an incredibly high ceiling. Those two are worth taking some longer term risk because of that ceiling and the better chance of improvement.

 

My point is that this team has lived with mediocrity for too long in part because we anoint guys as MLB players before they prove themselves. Kepler may very well be part of the core of a contender by the end of next year. He isn't now and he won't be unless he significantly improves at the plate. Maybe he breaks out this year - I hope he does but you can't give a guy a a longer term deal on anything other than a extremely team friendly basis based on his performance. Let's see if he does that before we strike with him.

 

BTW, I hope you're wrong on the 3rd point. This team has to go back into tear down and rebuild if Buxton and Sano both don't make it and Rosario leaves.

Buxton and Sano may or may not “make it”, but I see zero chance either is a Twin beyond his FA eligibility.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Why lock up Sano or Buxton when there are legitimate questions as to whether or not they are MLB hitters?

There is no reason to think Kepler can’t at least maintain what he’s done. And he’s pretty likely to improve. There is literally no definable base for speculation as to what to expect from Sano or Buxton. They have both been horrendously inconsistent.

Yes and no. Kepler has been more consistent than Buxton or Sano in terms of aggregate numbers; his splits are anything but consistent. He arrived at roughly the same place last season, and the one before, but the paths he took to those end results are entirely different. 

 

Depending on the extension I can certainly see the value in retaining him, but I also understand some of the concern or lack of enthusiasm.