Dozier Discount? Escobar Premium?

[The Wise One]

 

Nice try. Where was it stated that Escobar = Zobrist?

 

"No reason" to think Escobar "should" or "would"? Really?

 

Consider:

 

Escobar fWAR for 2017-18- 5.1

Zobrist fWAR for 2017-18- 4.1

 

Escobar age 29

Zobrist age 37

 

Zobrist's deal signed in winter of 2015-16 @ age 34

Escobar's deal will be signed in winter of 2018-19 @ age 29.

 

Escobar plays primarily at 3B and SS.

Zobrist plays primarily at 2B and corner OF.

 

Believe it or not, there is also salary inflation in MLB. 3 years after Zobrist's deal and teams' growing appreciation of positional flexibility, it's quite likely a Zobrist-like Super Utility player has the potential to command something close to Zobrist's deal.

 

And to re-remind you, the topic title of the article was, in part, "Escobar Premium?"

re- how much can/should the Twins OVERPAY to get Escobar back in order to shore up a completely fractured IF situation in order to be competitive in 2019.

Zobrist was not given a contract for what he did this year. His WAR for this year is irrelevant.  When Escobar averages 5.5 WAR for the 6 full seasons that Zobrist did when he played for Maddon you can say he deserves a Zobrist contract.  If you want to to consider over the last 3 years Escobar has a total of 4.9 fwar. If you want you can boast that Escobar  over a 4 year period . a player that averages under 3 war a year is nowhere similar to a 5+ WAR player. The money should not be anywhere near the same.   How  much is a league average player worth?   Depends on other teams. 3/27 should do as an overpay. 

[Twins33]

No to Dozier. Yes to getting Escobar back. Also yes to moving Polanco to 2B and finding a SS.

[beckmt]

 

  EE to 3b on 3-year deal, Polanco to 2b, sign Iglesias for 2-3, Sano to 1B/DH with Austin as backup/DH.  Sign one starter and two relievers - bench of Garver, Adrianza, Cave and Astudillo.

If you wish to go this route, why not just play Adrianza at SS.  Lewis will probably be here in 2020 or 2021 so more than a two year deal for a SS is an issue for me.  Play Sano at 3B as long as you can, with his off days at DH.  In you plan Austin would not be on the club.  Escobar makes some sense for me as you have 3 guys who can play different INF positions and one on the bench any given day.  Put the bigger money into pitching, twins need upgrades there.

[beckmt]

 

Great post. And I really agree that the Twins will be most benefited by moving Polanco off SS, the sooner the better. How to get there? Evidence suggests that Escobar isn't up to playing there full-time over a full season- but excels in spot duty at the spot, especially when factoring in the platoon split advantage. But that means necessarily acquiring another proven player to fill the SS breach.

 

I think (hope) they've moved on from Dozier, but I don't know for sure if they still might consider him a short-term discount option fix in lieu of signing Escobar and/or another expensive IF option.

 

I don't know how you can go into next season with the current state of affairs thinking pitching is a greater priority than an IF "fix". They both need equal attention.

If you do not think the pitching especially the bullpen is not a major issue, I have a 70's quote for you "What are you smoking'

[killertwinfan]

I am not sure that any of these moves would make this team anything other than mediocre.  I am not interested in Dozier unless they are one year deals until Gordon or whomever is ready.  That being said it seems Dozier's unhappiness with not being extended and then the FO bailing on this team before the players were ready to throw in the towel makes it unlikely for that scenario to arise.  I really like Escobar, would love to have him back but probably would not extend and offer for more than 2 years.  I think he will do better than that in free agency.  It seems our best option is to go young and cheap and hope for something in 2-3 years.  

[RatherBeGolfing]

 

Gordon is 22 and a top 100 prospect. Why anyone is giving up on him is, I'm not sure the word.

Zero reason to sign Dozier. Sign guys to win, or sign flyers...I will never understand why gamey want to bring back the band, when the band was bad....

 

Minnesotans love familiarity. We hate getting out of our comfort zone

[Doctor Wu]

Sign me up for the "No more Dozier" list. Thanks for some good years, now let's move on. Like others have suggested, I'd try Polance at 2B and see what happens. I think that would work just fine. I'd also resist trying to spend big money on a free agent infielder at this point.

[South Dakota Tom]

 

  EE to 3b on 3-year deal, Polanco to 2b, sign Iglesias for 2-3, Sano to 1B/DH with Austin as backup/DH.  Sign one starter and two relievers - bench of Garver, Adrianza, Cave and Astudillo.

 

 

If you wish to go this route, why not just play Adrianza at SS.  Lewis will probably be here in 2020 or 2021 so more than a two year deal for a SS is an issue for me.  Play Sano at 3B as long as you can, with his off days at DH.  In you plan Austin would not be on the club.  Escobar makes some sense for me as you have 3 guys who can play different INF positions and one on the bench any given day.  Put the bigger money into pitching, twins need upgrades there.

 

Multiple reasons:  1) Iglesias is better than Adrianza; 2) avoiding improving the 2019 club because a player might be ready in 2020 or 2021 is a run-run-run-punt mentality; 3) this presupposes the notion that Iglesias is not movable - and this is my biggest concern.  We talk about these contracts as though if we sign some player (whether that be Eduardo or Iglesias in my example) then we must play that player at that exact position for the duration of the contract.  Hey, if Royce Lewis comes up quickly and takes over SS for the next decade, we trade a player for other assets that we need at the time or high-end prospects.  Or Wander Javier.  Or Gordon.  Or Kiriloff or, or or.

 

 

The point is to stockpile assets and assets are players who are worth at least the contract you are paying them, but this team needs improvement (as you say) and it needs it all over the field.

[Number3]

Always figured that Dozier would tank when games actually meant something. Can't believe the idea of resigning him was actually proposed. Escobar? Why not?

Status of Sano and Buxton is still at the top of the list for 2019 and needs to be resolved once and for all.

Twins at least reached a status of mediocre respectability in 2018 and will probably be around the .500 mark in 2019 due mainly to weak Central and overall diluted talent in all of MLB.

I still believe that more and more, the coach/manager is the most important person on the field not any one player and this is true in all of major league sports.

I also think that Mauer's departure is an overall plus for the team and those who take the field in 2019 will play better without Mauer on the field or in the dugout.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

Gordon is 22 and a top 100 prospect. Why anyone is giving up on him is, I'm not sure the word.

Zero reason to sign Dozier. Sign guys to win, or sign flyers...I will never understand why gamey want to bring back the band, when the band was bad....

I'm not giving up on Gordon, I'm not counting on him to be a starter in 2019, or 2020 either. 

 

agreed on Dozier

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm not giving up on Gordon, I'm not counting on him to be a starter in 2019, or 2020 either. 

 

agreed on Dozier

 

Agree on 2019, but I think 2020 is a possibility....I clearly failed reading comprehension on your post!

[Blackjack]

No on Dozier.  I think he's done, plus if he came back here and couldn't perform, ended up on the bench, he'd pout.   Better for him and the Twins for him to start over elsewhere, no expectations, if he does well, great, if not, a new team can cut him with the 'we gave you a chance, good luck', which the Twins probably wouldn't do.

[Squirrel]

 

No to Dozier. Yes to getting Escobar back. Also yes to moving Polanco to 2B and finding a SS.

Concur. Of course, I have a particular SS in mind.

 

 

(yeah, yeah ... I know, I know ... it's the stuff of pipedreams, ya know?)

[USAFChief]

 

Totally agree.  I don't get the counterintuitive logic of "his value is down after playing poorly so let's go get him".  It is the same stuff I read when it came to Buxton.  He had a lousy year, so let's extend him!  WHAT???

Well, "buy low, sell high" is a pretty common investment strategy, no?

 

Not necessarily Dozier, but the Twins should always be looking for "buy low" candidates, players who have a good chance of outperforming their current level. That's one way you get players who are worth more than you're paying them, or the ability to sign FAs who end up worth more than you paid them.

 

For every person selling a stock because the value is down, there's another person buying it who is convinced it's going up. 

 

My personal favorite this winter is Josh Donaldson. I'd like to see the Twins bet on him while his value is down.

[Thrylos]

 

Agree on 2019, but I think 2020 is a possibility....I clearly failed reading comprehension on your post!

 

I'd rather see Gordon used as trade bait (in a package with some other prospects) for a top of the rotation starter.  He is in-between, plus at this point Arraez might be more ready than him 

[Vanimal46]

I'd rather see Gordon used as trade bait (in a package with some other prospects) for a top of the rotation starter. He is in-between, plus at this point Arraez might be more ready than him

Yes, I've been on this thought train since last winter. If he manages to stay on top 100 prospect lists after this season I would actively look to trade Gordon.

[jimmer]

I also think that Mauer's departure is an overall plus for the team and those who take the field in 2019 will play better without Mauer on the field or in the dugout.

on so now Mauer being on the team makes players not play as well as they are capable of? Is there anything you DON'T want to blame Mauer for?

 

Players are responsible for their own play.

[MABB1959]

As much as I liked Dozier as a Twin and team leader.  He consistently had at least one bad half year and last year was a total melt down for him.  Escobar was as much a leader but I don't think he would want to come back here.  If they can't find a good to great SS then why not try Lewis.  He could surprise everyone and be the next Trout.

[Doomtints]

If we need a shortstop, let's call up the Smalley family. Which one are they on now, Roy Smalley IV or Roy Smalley V? 

[jokin]

 

If you do not think the pitching especially the bullpen is not a major issue, I have a 70's quote for you "What are you smoking'

 

I most clearly did NOT say pitching was not a major issue for the Twins in 2019.

 

But the IF situation is entirely up in the air, I can't remember going into the offseason with a Twins club with more question marks across the IF from 1st-2nd-SS-to-3rd. To even hope to be competitive next year, both the IF and the Pitching Staff need equal major attention. It's also arguable that the two issues are inextricably intertwined, as it would appear to be almost impossible for this, or any revamped pitching staff, to be effective enough for post-season in 2019 with Polanco at SS.

 

As I stated, the only saving grace in all this, is that the Twins have a huge stash of dollars available- I hope they are big players come open FA and the GM Winter Meetings. The FO appeared to do a pretty good job last offseason, picking and choosing their spots- the plan had a justifiable rationale- but they will need to up their game this winter, or they could be out of their jobs by this time next year.

[laloesch]

 

The Twins have many more questions than answers as to who should man the IF in 2019. Two July-traded IF Twins mainstays will be FAs this offseason. Are either likely to be pursued by the Twins FO with oodles of soon-available room on the payroll? Consider:

 

1) Escobar turns 30 in 2019, while Dozier turns 32.

 

2) The Twins are turning over the roster and have a huge hole in leadership types.

 

3) There is no one currently in the farm system that is ready to assume any IF position in 2019.

 

4) As bad as Brian Dozier's 2018 season was with the Twins, his performance level has utterly collapsed in La  La Land. In the midst of an intense pennant race, Dozier's reps have been severely diminished and his poor August has led to a complete statistical collapse in September.

 

Here's his stat line since 8/31/19 (in 52 PAs):

 

.063/.135/.125/(.260) wRC+ -27 HR 0

 

Questions- How much has he damaged his upcoming FA?

Is he somehow irredeemably medically and physically damaged?

Can he get more than a one-year offer?

Can he get more than a minor league make good offer?

Might the Twins be the source for his ONLY "competitive" offer- and how much would that be?

 

5) Eduardo Escobar's #s have tailed off somewhat from his torrid season while with the Twins, but perhaps some of his slightly lower production can be attributed to his BABIP plummeting from .325 to .276- as his K% improved dramatically downward with the D-Backs, while his LD% and HR/FB% were also improved over his time with the Twins.

 

Questions- How much of a premium is Escobar worth with the hole at 2B and huge questions about Sano at 3B?

 

Should the Twins...

1) Sign Escobar as a starter at 2B or 3B....

 

2) Sign both Escobar and Dozier to reprise their Twins roles...

 

3) Sign Dozier only to a 1-year bargain deal as a bridge to Lewis- with Polanco eventually swinging over to 2B in 2020/

 

...OR...

 

4) Go ALL-IN and make a huge move to stabilize the IF and go after and sign Jose Iglesias @ SS for 2 (3?) years (2018 .865 OPS vs. LHP while Escobar is 2018 .846 vs RHP), moving Polanco to 2B

- (or sign Asdrubal Cabrera for 1 year to play 2B and keep Polanco at SS)

- and then ALSO sign and return Escobar in a Super Utility role and paying him a premium, say something like 4/$56M (Zobrist's current contract) to get his much-needed stability and leadership to fill any IF/corner OF spot (the Twins are short one RH hitting OF), + DH duty,

- meanwhile in the process successfully buying Sano and Royce Lewis insurance?

 

I prefer something like #4- desperate times call for aggressive, but sensible measures. Escobar could go full-pumpkin sooner than we hope, but I don't think potentially being out a good chunk of $56M over 4 years is going to jeopardize the franchise's fortunes.

 

I would certainly consider bringing back Escobar due to his versatility in the infield, but Dozier......no thanks. Too much of a whiner, and completely absent from the lineup from March - late July. Picture the team's supposed leader throwing a party with a bunch of teammates (Trevor Plouffe, Phil Hughes, Glen Perkins and Byung Ho Park) and they're all sitting back in comfortable couches, with a couple of little dogs, watching the bachelor; yes it did happen. Not what i envision as an inspiring player / team leader, think i'll pass.

[Twins33]

Concur. Of course, I have a particular SS in mind.

 

 

(yeah, yeah ... I know, I know ... it's the stuff of pipedreams, ya know?)

Haha. I think we want the same one!

[ChrisKnutson]

Dee Gordon???

[Squirrel]

Haha. I think we want the same one!

I’ve been saying it for a while now. Gotta love the pipe dreams!

[KirbyDome89]

 

Maybe see if the possibly rebuilding Giants want to get out from under most or all of Brandon Crawford’s deal. Solid defensively and while his bat isn’t worth his salary he’s never a black hole.

I'd love to see Crawford at SS and Polanco at 2B. Nothing wrong with Iglesias but Crawford is one of my favorite players to watch. 

[yarnivek1972]

If you wish to go this route, why not just play Adrianza at SS. Lewis will probably be here in 2020 or 2021 so more than a two year deal for a SS is an issue for me. Play Sano at 3B as long as you can, with his off days at DH. In you plan Austin would not be on the club. Escobar makes some sense for me as you have 3 guys who can play different INF positions and one on the bench any given day. Put the bigger money into pitching, twins need upgrades there.

 

Going with a plan that has a should-be utility player starting is how a team gives at bats to Gregorio Petit and Taylor Motter.