Trade Deadline Discussion Thread

[Vanimal46]

As I have said, Jake Odorizzi should not be a starter. He should come after "The Opener." He fits that mold more than any other starter on this team. He only averages 5 IP per start and allows an OPS of 1.322 the third time through the order, and the lowest OPS allowed, as expected, is against the 7-9 hitters. Ideally, you would like him to avoid the 3-4 hitters (1.103 OPS & .988 OPS, respectively), he has the most trouble with them. His numbers against the 1-2 hitters (.739 OPS) are fine. He does have an anomalous .999 OPS allowed to #8 hitters, but I see that as just that, anomalous. I would take my chances with him against a #8 hitter than a #3 hitter the third time around.

 

He also is only effective for 75 pitches. Unfortunately, he usually hits 75 pitches pretty early because of how much he labors. Once he hits the 75 pitch mark, he allows an OPS of 1.107 until he hits 100 pitches, after which point he allows a 1.250 OPS.

 

The most frustrating thing about Odorizzi is that he seems to pitch to the score. He can battle through 5 innings of a close game, but give him a big lead, and he gives runs back. The numbers show that:

*0-2 runs of support: .738 OPS allowed, 3.90 ERA, 2.84 K/BB

*3-5 runs of support: .768 OPS allowed, 3.43 ERA, 2.93 K/BB

* 6+ runs of support: .925 OPS allowed!, 7.20 ERA!, 1.64 K/BB!

 

I like Jake Odorizzi, but it's hard to argue, with these numbers, that starting him in the 1st inning is, contrary to normal baseball thinking, a mistake. He is an excellent pitcher when used properly. He may just be a guy that can't be used in a traditional fashion.

Great post. Thanks for doing the research!

[jtkoupal]

 

Love it all except trading Santana. He probably won't do a lot for us this year but I think he can and will be a solid #3 next year behind Berrios and Gibson. I think we shoudl re-sign him or exercise his option to keep him around. Odorizzi is the #4 and the AAA guys fight for the #5 and long relief role. We'll be lucky if 2 of them make it far enough to do that next year. 

Ervin Santana almost certainly won't be back at $14M next year. If they can keep him cheap, maybe they consider keeping him. However, he will be 36 in December and has pitched a total of 10.1 innings this year. Moving on wouldn't kill them either.

 

Odorizzi is a long reliever that is only capable of being effective for 75 pitches. He should be brought in after "the opener" starts the game.

[alarp33]

 

I think trading Odorizzi is a big mistake. A cost-controlled acceptable back-end starter has value on a team with pitching concerns.

 

And we've all seen what happens when a team opens the season with six starters capable even meager MLB performance. By the end of May, we're watching Sam Deduno pitch every fifth day.

 

I'm actually more down with trading Gibson than I am Odorizzi, if only because the return on Gibson should be significant.

 

And I don't even want to trade Gibson, I'm just open to it if the offer is good enough.

 

Agree on all counts

[Dman]

Even if the Twins don't\can't trade Dozier and Rodney I am happy with the way things went at the deadline.7 young prospects and 2 possible MLB call ups is pretty good for what we had to offer.  When you think about it its like they got to draft another 7 players.  Only these players have already proven they belong in pro ball.  Doesn't mean they will make it to the bigs but they have a better chance than the average draft pick.

 

Esco is the only piece that hurt our chances for competing this year.  This team can still try and catch Cleveland and hopefully get some player development time for the young guys as well.  With a decent off-season 2019 looks like a good rebound year to me. IMO with a strong farm system and improving MLB club this team is on the rise.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

 

I think trading Odorizzi is a big mistake. A cost-controlled acceptable back-end starter has value on a team with pitching concerns.

 

And we've all seen what happens when a team opens the season with six starters capable even meager MLB performance. By the end of May, we're watching Sam Deduno pitch every fifth day.

 

I'm actually more down with trading Gibson than I am Odorizzi, if only because the return on Gibson should be significant.

 

And I don't even want to trade Gibson, I'm just open to it if the offer is good enough.

Have to agree here. The team has Berrios, Pineda, and probably Gibson for the rotation next year if they trade Odorizzi. I suppose two open spots isn't the end of the world, given that they would likely be looking at filling them with May (out of options), Mejia (out of options), Gonsalves, Romero, Slegers, Thorpe, and possibly Kohl Stewart at this point. 

 

I don't think they are in danger of having a Deduno type experiment, though I agree that I would expect some of these guys to fail when given the try. That's the nature of development. I guess if they are punting on 2019, then you may as well trade Gibson, but then again, you may as well trade Odorizzi too, unless they think they can recoup value by waiting a year. 

 

I still expect Rodney to go (though I'm a bit surprised on how quiet this one is). Not holding my breath on Santana or Dozier. 

[clutchhittin18]

Take it for what it's worth, but it appears that the market for Dozier is at least warm this morning.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/07/brian-dozier-twins-trade.html

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Ervin Santana almost certainly won't be back at $14M next year. If they can keep him cheap, maybe they consider keeping him. However, he will be 36 in December and has pitched a total of 10.1 innings this year. Moving on wouldn't kill them either.

 

Odorizzi is a long reliever that is only capable of being effective for 75 pitches. He should be brought in after "the opener" starts the game.

 

Why not on Santana? He's not signing a dinky deal if you let him go. He will get 2-3 years from someone most likely. I'd bring him back at 14 for one year, if he stink? Oh well, it is a one year deal and you are done. 

If you think the team has no shot at competing next year, then I agree with you. Otherwise, having a veteran starter who has seen it all around for a full season at the price is a good thing IMO.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think anymore happens. It was a fine deadline. They got some flyers for free agents, and Pressley. I really hope things go better next year, and they are buyers

[ashbury]

Take it for what it's worth, but it appears that the market for Dozier is at least warm this morning.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/07/brian-dozier-twins-trade.html

A team friendly tweet by a local journalist, intended to motivate the one insubstantial offer they have in hand to a more acceptable level, is my interpretation.

[rghrbek]

 

Why not on Santana? He's not signing a dinky deal if you let him go. He will get 2-3 years from someone most likely. I'd bring him back at 14 for one year, if he stink? Oh well, it is a one year deal and you are done. 

If you think the team has no shot at competing next year, then I agree with you. Otherwise, having a veteran starter who has seen it all around for a full season at the price is a good thing IMO.

Besides the whole he'll be 36 thing, he is also throwing 88.  This is from a guy who normally threw 94.  It's not like this is still his spring training.  He's been throwing for almost 2 months.  If he cannot throw 93-94 with his fastball, his slider will be rendered meaningless.  

 

No chance the Twins keep him, none.

[Mike Sixel]

Besides the whole he'll be 36 thing, he is also throwing 88. This is from a guy who normally threw 94. It's not like this is still his spring training. He's been throwing for almost 2 months. If he cannot throw 93-94 with his fastball, his slider will be rendered meaningless.

 

No chance the Twins keep him, none.

If this is him the rest of the year, you can't pay him that much money at this age, other than if they love him as a mentor, and truly commit to youth other than him. Even then....

 

Which stinks. Seems like a hard worker

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

 

A team friendly tweet by a local journalist, intended to motivate the one insubstantial offer they have in hand to a more acceptable level, is my interpretation.

Crasnick, not a local shill, says it is heating up as well.

[jtkoupal]

 

Why not on Santana? He's not signing a dinky deal if you let him go. He will get 2-3 years from someone most likely. I'd bring him back at 14 for one year, if he stink? Oh well, it is a one year deal and you are done. 

If you think the team has no shot at competing next year, then I agree with you. Otherwise, having a veteran starter who has seen it all around for a full season at the price is a good thing IMO.

$14M is a lot of money. There is no guarantee that Santana will regain his velocity at 36 years old. We have already seen that even though his stuff is still good, he can't get away with near as much as he could when he had 3-4 MPH more on his fastball. Also, let's not forget that he substantially over performed all of his peripherals in 2017. 

 

The Twins could quite conceivably replace Santana's productivity for league minimum given the options in the minors. The Twins need to set their sights more on relief pitchers moving forward.

 

If Lance Lynn could only get $12M on a one-year deal last offseason, do you really think that Santana can get a multi-year deal worth $14M/yr going in to his age 36 season? 

 

I like Ervin Santana a lot, I'm sure he is a great guy to have around the clubhouse, but he ain't coming back at $14M. 

[clutchhittin18]

 

A team friendly tweet by a local journalist, intended to motivate the one insubstantial offer they have in hand to a more acceptable level, is my interpretation.

That's kind of why I said, take it for what it's worth...but Crasnick getting into the fold does add a little more credence to the story.

[ashbury]

Crasnick, not a local shill, says it is heating up as well.

Could be. The same "heating up" phrase suggests both are being fed by the same source, who may of course have reasons to do so. Just normal chatter at the deadline, I didn't mean to imply some deeply nefarious shenanigans going on. Mostly I was amplifying the "for what it's worth" tone of clutchhittin18.

[rujellis]

Dozier getting announced tonight in front of his former organization and fan base is my 'hot take' for the night.   We typically like to boo opposing players once they are traded or sign elsewhere...does he get booed?  

[jtkoupal]

 

I agree on Odorizzi but he's better than the options. I'd love to trade him but don't think they will.  I think we have to give Santana time before we know if he can be an asset next year.  I think he'll be a decent starter by the end of the year; don't judge him now coming off the injury. I think he can be a solid #3 and that's worth 14M a year in today's game.  

The Twins probably won't exercise Santana's option. If he comes back, it will be at a lower price. His production is likely replaceable. 

[Han Joelo]

Almost an hour passed between my check ins.  I'm almost Pavlovian at this point.  No red banners here or at MLBTR?  Come on people.  The clock is ticking.

[nicksaviking]

My (terrible and baseless) predictions:

 

Dozier : stays - no market for him.

Rodney: traded - for no one terribly exciting

Gibson: stays - after hearing some intense rumors about him being moved leading up to the deadline

Odorizzi: stays

Morrison: stays - soon to be DFA'd

Santana: stays for now - will make two more starts before clearing waivers and the Twins eat half of his remaining salary to move him

 

+

 

One super unexpected trade for a decent haul which will be very divisive on this site. I'm thinking Hildenberger or Kepler. Or someone not so divisive, for a minimal haul like recently acquired Tyler Austin. He looks like an A's type of player.

 

[slash129]

Dozier move trickle down options.

 

1) SS - Polanco, 2B - Adrianza, UTIL - Gordon

2) SS - Adrianza, 2B - Polanco, UTIL - Gordon

3) SS - Polanco, 2B - Gordon, UTIL - Adrianza

4) SS - Gordon, 2B - Polanco, UTIL - Adrianza

5) SS - Polanco, 2B - Adrianza, UTIL - Petit/Motter

6) SS - Adrianza, 2B - Polanco, UTIL - Petit/Motter

7) Every other scenario (e.g. Astudillo recall, Rosario to the IF, Arraez leap frogs Gordon, etc.)

 

My guess is #6.

 

EDIT - This is assuming a move.  #7 doesn't include Dozier staying.

[gil4]

 

And we've all seen what happens when a team opens the season with six starters capable even meager MLB performance. By the end of May, we're watching Sam Deduno pitch every fifth day

Deduno wasn't the problem - he was fun to watch. The fact that he was our third-best starter in 2012 and our best in 2013 was the problem.

[RedBull34]

 

Dozier move trickle down options.

 

1) SS - Polanco, 2B - Adrianza, UTIL - Gordon

2) SS - Adrianza, 2B - Polanco, UTIL - Gordon

3) SS - Polanco, 2B - Gordon, UTIL - Adrianza

4) SS - Gordon, 2B - Polanco, UTIL - Adrianza

5) SS - Polanco, 2B - Adrianza, UTIL - Petit/Motter

6) SS - Adrianza, 2B - Polanco, UTIL - Petit/Motter

7) Every other scenario (e.g. Astudillo recall, Rosario to the IF, Arraez leap frogs Gordon, etc.)

 

My guess is #6.

 

EDIT - This is assuming a move.  #7 doesn't include Dozier staying.

I think I'd take #5.  I just don't think the Twins are going to move Polanco off  of SS.

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

My predicitons:

 

Dozier traded - return is loved/hated in equal amounts on TD

Rodney traded - return is loved/hated in equal amounts on TD

Hildenberger traded - return is loved/hated in equal amounts on TD

Gibson, Santana, Odorizzi all stay - decision is loved/hated in equal amounts on TD

[gunnarthor]

Cleveland just added a CFer. Not sure what that does for Dozier to Cleveland?

[RedBull34]

 

Cleveland just added a CFer. Not sure what that does for Dozier to Cleveland?

I just don't see where they need Dozier if they aren't pushing Kipnis to the OF.  I think they're out.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Dozier move trickle down options.

 

1) SS - Polanco, 2B - Adrianza, UTIL - Gordon

2) SS - Adrianza, 2B - Polanco, UTIL - Gordon

3) SS - Polanco, 2B - Gordon, UTIL - Adrianza

4) SS - Gordon, 2B - Polanco, UTIL - Adrianza

5) SS - Polanco, 2B - Adrianza, UTIL - Petit/Motter

6) SS - Adrianza, 2B - Polanco, UTIL - Petit/Motter

7) Every other scenario (e.g. Astudillo recall, Rosario to the IF, Arraez leap frogs Gordon, etc.)

 

My guess is #6.

 

EDIT - This is assuming a move.  #7 doesn't include Dozier staying.

My guess would also be #5, though #3 wouldn't shock me despite how much Gordon has struggled in Triple A.

[Tom Froemming]

Here's another fun thought exercise: If Fernando Rodney gets dealt, who becomes closer?

 

Conventional wisdom probably says Addison Reed, but my guess is Molly would turn it over to Matt Belisle. Honestly.

[mngopherguy]

My guess:

 

Dozier to Seattle.  Rodney stays( and Belisle, Morrison, and Wilson).

 

 

[nicksaviking]

 

Dozier move trickle down options.

 

1) SS - Polanco, 2B - Adrianza, UTIL - Gordon

2) SS - Adrianza, 2B - Polanco, UTIL - Gordon

3) SS - Polanco, 2B - Gordon, UTIL - Adrianza

4) SS - Gordon, 2B - Polanco, UTIL - Adrianza

5) SS - Polanco, 2B - Adrianza, UTIL - Petit/Motter

6) SS - Adrianza, 2B - Polanco, UTIL - Petit/Motter

7) Every other scenario (e.g. Astudillo recall, Rosario to the IF, Arraez leap frogs Gordon, etc.)

 

My guess is #6.

 

EDIT - This is assuming a move.  #7 doesn't include Dozier staying.

 

Sano used to play SS, you forgot that option.

[nicksaviking]

 

Here's another fun thought exercise: If Fernando Rodney gets dealt, who becomes closer?

 

Conventional wisdom probably says Addison Reed, but my guess is Molly would turn it over to Matt Belisle. Honestly.

 

After which the front office should DFA Belisle to teach him a lesson. I'g guess Hildenberger just because Reed is coming off of an injury and is under contract for next year; I'll bet the FO makes it crystal clear to Molitor that Reed is to be brought back slowly.

 

But honestly, with his low walk rate (at least this year) I'd make Magill the closer. Turn him into the next Brandon Kintzler, an unknown who came out of nowhere. Though Molitor clearly doesn't like him so that ain't happening.