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rujellis

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Everything posted by rujellis

  1. rujellis
    Another reason its hard to answer is we don't know the alternatives. Falvine should know who would be on their shortlist, so that becomes another measuring stick for Molitor. Personally, I just want fresh...the proverbial turning of the page, blank slate, etc. This off-season with cap space, prospects, etc. it seems we are going to see the next 'wave' come in and I want a new manager in place to grow with them and create a new Twins identity. With all that said, I am not in the camp that would say anyone is upgrade to Molitor which is why Falvine needs to weigh him vs. who's on their shortlist. I won't revolt if Molitor still in place, he has shown some ability to adapt(i.e. shifts, bunting, moving Dozier out of leadoff) and perhaps bullpen usage is his next adaptation.
  2. rujellis
    For me the other point of assessment for a manager is player development...but it still falls in category of 'what percentage of blame/credit should manager get?' Rosario, Berrios, Escobar, Gibson, Kepler(vs. LHP), etc. Was Molitor an important part of those guys making some improvements? Did he have conversations that allowed some sort epiphany for these guys? Does he get credit for helping make Adrianza, Cave, serviceable fill-ins this year w/ potential of being quality bench options in future? Its impossible to quantify, but for me needs to be part of the equation for Falvine.
  3. rujellis
    My 'issue' with Dozier is that he is an expiring contract and all must go. :-) Now is the time of year teams that have no/low odds of making playoffs get excited about trading everyone. There is this anticipation as you are hitting the refresh button that the shiny new minor league prospect is going to be a key cog for years to come. Its a bit like how opening boxes/packs of baseball cards was for me...you go to Shinders (w/o the knowledge that all the good cards have already been siphoned) and you flip through card after card until you see that Rich Becker rookie card and you proclaim 'This might be worth something someday'. 2 years later you are trying to convince your slightly dumber friend to trade for it because it says 'Premier Prospect' and its still really valuable.
  4. rujellis
    Dozier getting announced tonight in front of his former organization and fan base is my 'hot take' for the night. We typically like to boo opposing players once they are traded or sign elsewhere...does he get booed?
  5. rujellis
    1.) Where are you from? - Inner burbs of Minneapolis 2.) Age Range? - 30's 3.) What brought you to Twins Daily? Gleeman and Geek podcast 4.) Highest level of baseball/softball played? 1 nondescript year at Winona State, followed by a very slightly less nondescript year at Augsburg. Lucky enough to coach VFW baseball for 10 years. 5.) Favorite Twins Player, and favorite underappreciated Twins player, and if you want, favorite current Twins player? Johan Santana 6.) Favorite non-Twins Daily site/authors? Fangraphs 7.) Favorite Twitter follows? Rob Friedman 'Pitching Ninja' 8.) Other interests outside of baseball. My kids, Golf, Green Bay Packers, and the rest of the non-Minnesota Vikings Minnesota sports teams. 9.) Favorite part of Twins Daily... minor league reports, generally knowledgeable discussion 10.) Tell us what we can do better. What features or other topics would you like to see in-season or out of season? More minor league analysis, less about prospects, more about breaking down trends, player development, organizational philosophy, etc. You know...the fun stuff. 11.) Have you been to any of the Twins Daily "events?" Nope
  6. rujellis
    I guess I look at it as I would have cut Zach Duke or severely limited his role post trade deadline to open a spot for Busenitz, Curtiss, Bard, Slegers, Duffey, May, etc so getting a lottery ticket and a reclamation project is just a bonus. Its not a deal where you get excited about return but rather what the deal allows you to do. Now if they go and promote DJ Baxendale, hide the women and children cause I will raze this place to the ground...;-)
  7. rujellis
    Apparently someone called Luis Rijo is coming to Twins too.
  8. rujellis
    I tend to agree w/ Szymborski. But I am holding out judgement on the trade deadline until we see to what degree they are being 'patient'. If in fact, its true they were willing to extend Escobar but were not close on terms...to me it could signify they are serious about giving it another run next year rather than stockpiling for 2-3 years down the road. And in which case, I am glad they got what they could from Escobar now. But then that should also mean that outside of very top prospects being available they wouldn't really entertain trading Gibson. So we will see...
  9. rujellis
    Actually, I think once we get rid of Rodney, Gibson, Lynn, Santana, Duke, etc. Belisle will actually have the role he was originally brought in for...there will be so many young guys that Belisle can mentor that he will finally live up to his value. And FWIW, I do think its an important role. Young guys do need some help with routine, preparation, getting through life on the road, etc. I just wish we could find someone that can also be useful in a game.
  10. rujellis
    Fixed
  11. rujellis
    As long as they started with Escobar, I say you might as well go all in with the blow up. I had the thought that if its only Lynn, Rodney, Duke, etc. than Twins are keeping the core intact just in case we get hot, but also trying to open up time for youngsters too. But you start by getting rid of a core guy like Escobar, and I hope they go all the way with it. Get creative and allow the entire 40 man to re-shuffle. I do pause a bit on Gibson given we have needed pitching for so many years, but I won't be heartbroken either.
  12. rujellis
    Seems low risk, low reward. If he sucks, then he was just blocking someone in AAA as mentioned above. If he is good, then would we really want to compete with others to sign Chris Tillman in the offseason? The right answer is no and in which case we just paid him to audition for other teams. :-) With all that said...in a scenario where Lynn, Gibson, Santana are all traded, I can see a veteran flier on someone like Tillman for insurance, so we aren't rushing any AA pitchers to fill some spots.
  13. rujellis
    Its possible there is more to it, but the key difference between the two is defense. Buxton batting .200 at least still gives you the best defensive CF in baseball. Sano batting .200 leaves us w/ a below average defender or him fighting w/ another .200 hitter for the DH spot.
  14. rujellis
    How could you forget A.J Achter? The diamond in the rough they drafted in the 46th round of the 2010 draft. He gave us 18 'strong' games across 2 seasons. :-) Your point still stands. But I do think its a crapshoot for almost all teams. And you also have to weigh quality of ML contributors vs. quantity. 1 small example would be the Yankees...they had more players drafted(+11 rounds) who contributed in the majors, but only had 1(David Phelps) who had a WAR above 1.6. Whereas Twins had 2 (Hildenburger- 1.6 & Rogers- 1.8). For comparison sake, I long think of STL as having one of best player development systems and they only had 6 players with a +1.6 WAR over that same span...but managed to pull some higher quality from their 6(Carpenter-22, Rosenthal-5.8, Adams-6.1 Siegrist- 4.4, etc.) The Twins haven't found that diamond in the rough that can cover for a bad 1st round or 2nd round pick in a draft year.
  15. rujellis
    If you want to debate realistic scenarios(and I am not saying any of the above aren't realistic) than you need to care about your club's history of spending. Otherwise, I would really like us to give Darvish 250m, Harper 350m, and Kershaw 450m because who cares about the payroll...:-) Personally, I am more likely to sign a reliever than I would be giving up major assets or prospects to get one via trade. A true high leverage reliever is perhaps the exception, but I don' think there are really that many available out there either.
  16. rujellis
    At the very least, its nice to be having these type of conversations at the end of August. When scratching and clawing for each game(and second guessing decisions) means something.
  17. rujellis
    You don't have to bench Polanco; Adrianza can play most of the time at SS...Polanco(DH) and Garver(DH/OF) can split Grossman's role. And you just start this rotation for a couple weeks and see where the team is at. If out of contention than I ease back on Adrianza's time in favor of development.
  18. rujellis
    Spreading out your affiliates also ups your travel costs for scouts, front office peeps, minor league coordinators and players. I can see some benefit to having your teams more co-located around MIN, but you aren't moving out of Florida given the footprint they have invested in down there. So that leaves Chattanooga and Rochester. I can see benefits of swapping Rochester(A) and Cedar Rapids(AAA). If for no other reason than a shorter trip for the team that is feeding your major league club. I also have longed wish for the St. Paul Saints to be an affiliate for the Twins. I do think it makes the Saints a far more interesting product(for me). But I know its been shot down in the past.
  19. rujellis
    I think the Twins are going to be careful though not to gut Rochester in the middle of their own playoff hunt to. I get that they have a responsibility first and foremost to the major league team, but they do need to make sure anything they bring up is adequately replaced in Rochester either by major league parts(Gibson) or quality AA pieces. I can see a steady shuttle of guys back and forth rather than just keeping up Garver, Gonsalves, Granite, Slegers, Vargas, Park, Curtis etc. and DFA the deadwood on the major league roster. None of this is to say that Gonsalves can't come up and pitch and stay...I just don't see wholesale moves right now. They will play it out til rosters expand and then see where each club is at.
  20. rujellis
    I don't know if I would call giving up Huascar Ynoa as being fooled and in need of a lesson in run differential. You could argue because he added a pitcher who 'might' be able to keep teams to less than 5 runs, that he understands how to improve run differential. :-)
  21. rujellis
    For some odd reason, I like him even more because he mentioned 'Woman's Basketball' in his list of pro-sports. I don't think its going to make or break him as a baseball player, but it shows some good awareness for a young kid that the world is bigger than whichever world they are participating in. Not something you see very often from young kids, athletes (or many humans). :-)
  22. rujellis
    Now in fairness, i am absolutely just picking random pitchers that fit my arguments ...but 60-65% for a #3/#4 seems a bit high. Now as I said, I have not done any in depth research, but top 50 pitchers in career win% is between 63-79%. Next 50 is between 60-63%. This group between 60-63% includes Greg Maddux, Sale, Arrieta, Grienke, Jimmy Key, Roy Oswalt, Sabathia, Verlander, Cy Young, Feller, Newcombe, Marichal, etc. No real point other than, I would be ecstatic if a #3/4 could win 60-65% of their games. The above can certainly be dismissed as evidence of how little value we should put in 'Wins', but for some teams a pitcher that wins 60% of their games is likely considered their ace.
  23. rujellis
    For most part, i agree with doomtints...i just think the MIN need to be prepared to go in either direction. If someone wows you for Santana, Dozier, Kintzler than you need to have the stones to make those deals. If you are poking around for upgrades(that are not rentals) and there is a palatable price than again go for it. Doing nothing is the worst option. There is a definite need to re-organize both the 25 and 40 man rosters, and I think some fresh blood via trade can be 1 avenue to start that process.
  24. rujellis
    Championships I would agree with, although early 2000's....Marlins, Angels, White Sox, Phillies would disagree. But I also look at the last 4 World Series runner-ups...CLE, KAN(x2), STL all outside the top 10 in payroll. We aren't going worst to first because we sign 1 big ace this offseason, or because we leave 100k in our draft pool on the table. I can easily get behind those that want to speed up the win process( have a 4 year old who says 'I wish I could go to a game when Twins actually win :-) ). But I also understand that slow burn is likely the way to go for a 'small market' team who's business model is to be fiscally conservative. :-)
  25. rujellis
    To me this should be amended to 'winning' vs. 'spending money'. The burden of proof is on MIN to show they know how to make and win in the playoffs consistently. I don't much care how much or how little they spend to do it. But I do know we(or at least I) need to give Falvey and company more than 9 months before i start holding them accountable for 10+ years of someone else mismanaging the team. Every move SHOULD be under the microscope and open for analysis, but the conclusion doesn't always need to be 'Oh no here we go again'. Sometimes a mistake is just a mistake, not part of some long lasting narrative.
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